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Big Ten Basketball Stock Report

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A Place To Find Value or Run The Hell Away

NCAA Basketball: Michigan State at Seton Hall Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Greetings once again! Welcome to the B1G Shootyhoops Stock Report, the place where I breakdown the week(s) that was against some form of expectations.

I’m going to retool this a bit. Since I’m the “writers’” resident degenerate, I’ve decided to take a look at how teams are performing not only from a win-loss perspective but also from a betting perspective. Much like investing is a risk, so is sports gambling. Yes, one can carry much more risk than the other. Especially for people who blindly bet favorites. This season, you’re going to hear me talk about spreads and Vegas and fading teams. Hopefully, it works. If not, well, we’ll figure it out.

Beating Expectations / Potential Value

Penn State Nittany Lions – Went to Georgetown and got a pretty good win. Might this be the year to return to the NCAA for Lamar Stevens and company? That remains to be seen but there could very well be value on the Nittany Lions starting out 3-0 Against the Spread (ATS).

Ohio State Buckeyes – Going 3-0 thus far is pretty good for a team that underperformed last season. Blowing the doors off Villanova certainly helps as well. This team is hella balanced with scoring spread throughout the lineup from Kaleb Wesson to DJ Carton. That bodes well for the Buckeyes once B1G season hits.

Maryland Terrapins Have a nice win over a pesky Rhode Island. Although the amount of handwringing DJ does on the ‘writer’ Slack Channel does make me think this team is still going to be limited by Turg. That said, the Terps are 2-1 against the number. Could be worth the sweat in the weeks to come.

Poll

Which value bet would you make here?

This poll is closed

  • 31%
    Penn State
    (69 votes)
  • 47%
    Ohio State
    (105 votes)
  • 14%
    Maryland
    (32 votes)
  • 6%
    None of the above
    (15 votes)
221 votes total Vote Now

Meeting Expectations / Average Returns

Wisconsin Badgers – Vegas seems to have their finger on Greg Gard’s squad early on this season. They’re 2-2 ATS but that big win over Marquette might have them headed for the upper echelon.

Indiana Hoosiers – Yes, Indiana is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the number but it’s against a team with an average ranking of 280 per TeamRankings.com. Play someone and I’ll bump them up. (Boilerman Note: No, I didn’t forget about them. Copying and pasting into the editor can be an adventure sometimes. Sorry.)

Michigan State Spartans – Teams like Michigan State will always be hard to gauge value. Simply because expectations are set high so betting on them could be a bit dicey. Especially when Tom Izzo gets a neutral court and road game in the first three of the season.

Illinois Fighting Illini – I’m going to put a hold on Illinois right now. They failed to cover their home opener and had an early season road trip in which they beat something called Grand Canyon and got blown out by an uber-talented-but-somehow-not sanctioned Arizona squad. Not the best conditions to gauge Brad Underwood’s team.

Northwestern Wildcats – Not really enough data to get a read on Northwestern. The loss to Merrimack was hella bad but they rebounded nicely against Providence, so, who knows?

Poll

Which of these would you bet for a nice little return?

This poll is closed

  • 33%
    Wisconsin
    (60 votes)
  • 39%
    Michigan State
    (71 votes)
  • 21%
    Illinois
    (39 votes)
  • 4%
    Northwestern
    (8 votes)
178 votes total Vote Now

Poll

Which of these would you not touch with a ten-foot pole?

This poll is closed

  • 7%
    Wisconsin
    (14 votes)
  • 5%
    Michigan State
    (10 votes)
  • 13%
    Illinois
    (23 votes)
  • 73%
    Northwestern
    (129 votes)
176 votes total Vote Now

Expectations? Value? Maybe Not Here.

Iowa Hawkeyes – Well, that loss to DePaul was…something. Most of the ‘writers’ didn’t have much hope for Iowa this season, so I guess there’s that. Also, the bookies have honed in on the Hawkeyes. They’re 2-1 to the number but those wins were within 4 of the closing line.

Michigan Wolverines – Ain’t played nobody. Haven’t exactly been blowing the doors off the competition. 1-2 against the number. My recommendation is to avoid until further results are available.

Minnesota Golden Gophers – The early schedule has been pretty damn tough for Minnesota. Games against Oklahoma and Butler and a roadie out to Utah aren’t exactly what one would want for a team looking to establish itself. Vegas also seems to have their nose on the Gophers as well. The differential between the spread and result over those three games is 4.5 with two games being decided by the hook. Run.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – Everyone knew Fred Hoiberg was going to struggle this season but 1-2 against an average opponent ranking of 220+? Yikes.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights – 3-1 Straight-up? Okay but that loss to the Bonnies doesn’t instill confidence. They’re also 1-3 ATS and missing the number by an average of over 10 points. Fade. Fade. Fade.

Purdue Boilermakers – Losses to Texas and Marquette weren’t exactly unexpected given Purdue trying to replace Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline. That said, the offensive struggles are concerning given how athletic this team is. Matt Haarms and company may be a fade for the non-conference.

Poll

Which team would you fade the fastest?

This poll is closed

  • 16%
    Iowa
    (35 votes)
  • 9%
    Michigan
    (20 votes)
  • 6%
    Minnesota
    (13 votes)
  • 37%
    Nebraska
    (80 votes)
  • 20%
    Rutgers
    (43 votes)
  • 10%
    Purdue
    (23 votes)
214 votes total Vote Now

Poll

Which team turns it around and becomes a safe bet?

This poll is closed

  • 34%
    Michigan
    (76 votes)
  • 9%
    Minnesota
    (20 votes)
  • 51%
    Purdue
    (113 votes)
  • 4%
    Other (comments!)
    (10 votes)
219 votes total Vote Now