Daughter got sick this week, which cuts into OTE time. The nerve of her, got to teach her to respect her dad's priorities.
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 12-0 | +47.7 | 1 | 1 | +27.0 | 1 | -22.1 | 1 | +24.1 | 1 | 9.52 | 6 |
PennState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | +35.2 | 2 | 2 | +16.7 | 6 | -18.4 | 3 | +22.3 | 3 | 8.91 | 8 |
Alabama | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +32.1 | 3 | 4 | +21.5 | 2 | -11.9 | 11 | +15.7 | 9 | 2.87 | 54 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 10-2 | +31.6 | 4 | 5 | +13.4 | 10 | -19.1 | 2 | +12.6 | 21 | 8.46 | 10 |
Clemson | ACC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +30.7 | 5 | 3 | +14.5 | 9 | -16.5 | 7 | +17.3 | 5 | 0.71 | 66 |
LSU | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +28.7 | 6 | 6 | +19.7 | 4 | -8.8 | 20 | +22.4 | 2 | 6.10 | 27 |
Auburn | SEC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +25.6 | 7 | 7 | +8.7 | 18 | -16.6 | 6 | +15.8 | 7 | 10.90 | 3 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 7-1 | 10-2 | +25.4 | 8 | 8 | +20.3 | 3 | -6.1 | 34 | +13.1 | 19 | 5.55 | 34 |
Oregon | P12 | 8-1 | 11-1 | +23.5 | 9 | 12 | +11.8 | 12 | -11.6 | 13 | +15.4 | 11 | 1.98 | 58 |
Georgia | SEC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +23.0 | 10 | 10 | +7.0 | 26 | -15.7 | 8 | +14.2 | 14 | 3.89 | 50 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +23.0 | 11 | 11 | +9.5 | 16 | -13.4 | 9 | +14.1 | 15 | 12.78 | 1 |
Utah | P12 | 8-1 | 11-1 | +22.6 | 12 | 9 | +5.1 | 41 | -16.9 | 5 | +14.7 | 12 | 0.58 | 68 |
Navy | Amer | 7-1 | 10-2 | +19.1 | 13 | 18 | +10.1 | 15 | -8.8 | 19 | +13.4 | 17 | 0.56 | 69 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-2 | 9-3 | +18.9 | 14 | 13 | +0.3 | 71 | -17.9 | 4 | +11.2 | 23 | 7.65 | 14 |
Florida | SEC | 7-2 | 10-2 | +18.8 | 15 | 14 | +6.3 | 33 | -12.1 | 10 | +13.3 | 18 | 4.47 | 41 |
CentralFlorida | Amer | 7-2 | 9-3 | +17.7 | 16 | 17 | +17.2 | 5 | -1.0 | 68 | +10.3 | 26 | -2.07 | 81 |
IowaState | B12 | 5-3 | 7-5 | +16.3 | 17 | 19 | +8.8 | 17 | -8.2 | 22 | +6.4 | 38 | 7.52 | 16 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-2 | 9-3 | +16.1 | 18 | 16 | +7.8 | 22 | -7.9 | 25 | +12.8 | 20 | 4.69 | 37 |
Cincinnati | Amer | 7-1 | 10-2 | +15.8 | 19 | 15 | +5.3 | 38 | -9.1 | 18 | +17.9 | 4 | 3.86 | 51 |
KansasState | B12 | 6-2 | 9-3 | +15.3 | 20 | 29 | +4.6 | 42 | -10.3 | 16 | +11.4 | 22 | 3.74 | 53 |
Minnesota | B10 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +15.3 | 21 | 23 | +6.9 | 27 | -7.4 | 30 | +16.0 | 6 | 4.48 | 40 |
MichiganState | B10 | 4-4 | 7-5 | +15.1 | 22 | 22 | +3.7 | 48 | -11.6 | 12 | +6.5 | 37 | 11.44 | 2 |
Washington | P12 | 5-4 | 7-5 | +14.3 | 23 | 24 | +7.3 | 24 | -7.6 | 28 | +5.1 | 46 | 4.98 | 36 |
Texas | B12 | 5-3 | 7-5 | +14.0 | 24 | 27 | +13.0 | 11 | -1.5 | 65 | +7.9 | 33 | 8.43 | 11 |
SMU | Amer | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.0 | 25 | 25 | +14.5 | 8 | +1.3 | 81 | +15.8 | 8 | 1.96 | 59 |
Memphis | Amer | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.0 | 26 | 31 | +11.1 | 14 | -2.2 | 59 | +14.4 | 13 | -0.36 | 75 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +13.9 | 27 | 28 | +11.6 | 13 | -2.5 | 58 | +8.8 | 31 | 6.73 | 25 |
LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 6-2 | 10-2 | +13.6 | 28 | 32 | +5.6 | 36 | -7.8 | 26 | +9.0 | 30 | -7.38 | 115 |
Baylor | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.4 | 29 | 20 | +3.4 | 49 | -8.7 | 21 | +15.6 | 10 | 1.76 | 60 |
Indiana | B10 | 7-2 | 8-4 | +12.6 | 30 | 35 | +6.7 | 30 | -5.8 | 35 | +8.1 | 32 | 4.66 | 38 |
AirForce | MWC | 7-2 | 11-2 | +12.6 | 31 | 26 | +4.5 | 43 | -7.6 | 29 | +10.2 | 27 | -3.60 | 92 |
AppalachianState | Sun | 7-1 | 10-2 | +12.2 | 32 | 21 | +7.6 | 23 | -4.3 | 45 | +10.6 | 25 | -6.12 | 108 |
BoiseState | MWC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +12.2 | 33 | 30 | +6.8 | 29 | -4.5 | 43 | +13.8 | 16 | -3.65 | 93 |
TexasAM | SEC | 6-3 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 34 | 34 | +6.3 | 34 | -5.6 | 37 | +6.0 | 41 | 6.25 | 26 |
WashingtonState | P12 | 4-4 | 7-5 | +11.1 | 35 | 36 | +15.1 | 7 | +2.3 | 88 | -1.4 | 82 | 2.36 | 56 |
Virginia | ACC | 6-3 | 9-3 | +10.5 | 36 | 38 | +5.5 | 37 | -5.0 | 41 | +7.0 | 35 | -0.23 | 74 |
USC | P12 | 5-4 | 7-5 | +9.6 | 37 | 33 | +6.4 | 32 | -3.2 | 52 | +6.8 | 36 | 6.75 | 24 |
Tulane | Amer | 6-3 | 7-5 | +9.6 | 38 | 39 | +7.8 | 21 | -1.9 | 62 | +5.7 | 43 | 2.69 | 55 |
TCU | B12 | 4-4 | 6-6 | +9.4 | 39 | 37 | +4.3 | 45 | -5.6 | 36 | +2.6 | 59 | 5.59 | 33 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-1 | 9-3 | +9.1 | 40 | 44 | +8.3 | 20 | +0.0 | 73 | +11.2 | 24 | -0.04 | 73 |
Missouri | SEC | 5-3 | 7-5 | +8.7 | 41 | 41 | +3.2 | 52 | -6.5 | 32 | -0.4 | 77 | 0.70 | 67 |
Miami | ACC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +8.2 | 42 | 51 | +0.4 | 69 | -8.1 | 24 | +3.2 | 54 | 0.90 | 65 |
MississippiState | SEC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +8.2 | 43 | 49 | +7.1 | 25 | -1.4 | 66 | +4.0 | 51 | 8.89 | 9 |
NorthCarolina | ACC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +8.1 | 44 | 40 | +3.2 | 53 | -5.3 | 38 | +2.8 | 57 | 4.57 | 39 |
FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 6-3 | 9-3 | +8.0 | 45 | 45 | +5.2 | 39 | -2.7 | 57 | +6.1 | 40 | -3.38 | 90 |
Louisville | ACC | 5-3 | 8-4 | +7.2 | 46 | 43 | +8.4 | 19 | +1.8 | 83 | +9.3 | 28 | 4.13 | 47 |
Duke | ACC | 4-4 | 6-6 | +7.0 | 47 | 46 | +4.4 | 44 | -2.8 | 55 | +3.4 | 53 | 4.43 | 42 |
SouthCarolina | SEC | 4-5 | 5-7 | +6.4 | 48 | 47 | +4.0 | 47 | -3.1 | 54 | -0.2 | 74 | 9.94 | 5 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +5.6 | 49 | 50 | -4.6 | 102 | -9.4 | 17 | +7.8 | 34 | 4.24 | 43 |
Tennessee | SEC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +5.5 | 50 | 60 | -2.1 | 83 | -7.8 | 27 | +1.4 | 66 | 5.82 | 31 |
Kentucky | SEC | 4-4 | 7-5 | +4.3 | 51 | 52 | -3.8 | 98 | -8.1 | 23 | +1.8 | 63 | 1.55 | 61 |
ArizonaState | P12 | 5-3 | 7-5 | +4.2 | 52 | 53 | -2.2 | 86 | -6.1 | 33 | +4.0 | 52 | 3.81 | 52 |
FloridaState | ACC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +4.1 | 53 | 42 | +0.7 | 67 | -3.3 | 51 | +3.0 | 56 | 4.22 | 44 |
BYU | Ind | 4-4 | 7-5 | +4.1 | 54 | 72 | +0.0 | 72 | -3.6 | 49 | +5.8 | 42 | -1.56 | 80 |
Wyoming | MWC | 6-2 | 8-4 | +3.4 | 55 | 54 | -0.9 | 78 | -3.8 | 48 | +5.3 | 45 | -4.12 | 96 |
Mississippi | SEC | 3-6 | 4-8 | +3.1 | 56 | 67 | -0.0 | 73 | -4.3 | 44 | -4.9 | 100 | 5.98 | 29 |
Houston | Amer | 3-6 | 4-8 | +3.0 | 57 | 56 | -0.1 | 74 | -3.8 | 47 | -2.9 | 89 | 5.67 | 32 |
OregonState | P12 | 4-4 | 5-7 | +2.8 | 58 | 70 | +6.8 | 28 | +3.9 | 102 | +1.1 | 68 | 5.29 | 35 |
California | P12 | 4-4 | 6-6 | +2.6 | 59 | 64 | -8.2 | 114 | -10.7 | 15 | +1.7 | 65 | 5.99 | 28 |
UCLA | P12 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +2.4 | 60 | 66 | +3.0 | 54 | +0.6 | 75 | +1.8 | 64 | 7.41 | 21 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +2.2 | 61 | 61 | -10.6 | 117 | -11.4 | 14 | +9.2 | 29 | -6.84 | 111 |
Tulsa | Amer | 2-7 | 3-9 | +2.2 | 62 | 58 | -1.2 | 81 | -3.8 | 46 | -1.3 | 79 | 9.12 | 7 |
TexasTech | B12 | 3-5 | 4-8 | +2.1 | 63 | 55 | +0.4 | 68 | -2.8 | 56 | -4.9 | 101 | 3.97 | 48 |
WesternMichigan | MAC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +2.1 | 64 | 65 | +4.2 | 46 | +1.8 | 82 | -0.3 | 75 | -6.51 | 109 |
Illinois | B10 | 5-4 | 6-6 | +2.0 | 65 | 63 | +2.2 | 59 | +0.0 | 74 | +0.0 | 72 | 1.15 | 64 |
UtahState | MWC | 4-4 | 6-6 | +1.7 | 66 | 48 | -0.1 | 75 | -1.2 | 67 | +4.9 | 47 | -0.02 | 72 |
Stanford | P12 | 4-4 | 6-6 | +1.4 | 67 | 62 | -4.2 | 100 | -5.3 | 39 | +2.6 | 60 | 7.26 | 22 |
BostonCollege | ACC | 5-4 | 6-6 | +1.4 | 68 | 76 | +5.1 | 40 | +4.0 | 104 | +2.7 | 58 | 1.39 | 63 |
Nebraska | B10 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +1.1 | 69 | 57 | +2.6 | 56 | +1.1 | 77 | -1.6 | 84 | 7.49 | 17 |
Temple | Amer | 5-3 | 7-5 | +0.7 | 70 | 71 | -2.2 | 84 | -2.1 | 60 | +5.4 | 44 | 0.21 | 71 |
Maryland | B10 | 3-6 | 4-8 | +0.7 | 71 | 59 | +3.3 | 50 | +2.0 | 85 | -3.1 | 91 | 7.43 | 18 |
Buffalo | MAC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +0.2 | 72 | 89 | -2.9 | 90 | -3.2 | 53 | +0.2 | 71 | -7.76 | 120 |
Purdue | B10 | 3-6 | 4-8 | +0.0 | 73 | 73 | +0.3 | 70 | -0.2 | 72 | -3.1 | 92 | 7.73 | 13 |
BallState | MAC | 4-4 | 6-6 | -0.1 | 74 | 69 | +2.5 | 57 | +2.4 | 89 | -1.4 | 81 | -4.43 | 97 |
GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 5-3 | 8-4 | -0.2 | 75 | 92 | -4.5 | 101 | -3.4 | 50 | +6.1 | 39 | -2.17 | 83 |
Hawaii | MWC | 5-4 | 8-5 | -0.6 | 76 | 68 | +6.2 | 35 | +7.3 | 112 | +2.3 | 61 | -2.71 | 87 |
FresnoState | MWC | 4-4 | 6-6 | -1.3 | 77 | 79 | +2.3 | 58 | +3.4 | 98 | -2.1 | 86 | -4.60 | 99 |
ArkansasState | Sun | 5-4 | 7-5 | -1.5 | 78 | 77 | +3.3 | 51 | +5.3 | 108 | +2.3 | 62 | -3.73 | 94 |
GeorgiaState | Sun | 6-2 | 8-4 | -1.5 | 79 | 81 | +6.7 | 31 | +9.2 | 118 | +4.8 | 48 | -5.28 | 105 |
Ohio | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | -1.7 | 80 | 78 | +1.7 | 63 | +3.4 | 97 | -1.3 | 80 | -7.82 | 122 |
WestVirginia | B12 | 3-5 | 4-8 | -2.1 | 81 | 90 | -3.9 | 99 | -1.8 | 63 | -1.1 | 78 | 8.14 | 12 |
Marshall | CUSA | 6-3 | 8-4 | -2.2 | 82 | 85 | -3.6 | 97 | -0.5 | 70 | +4.2 | 50 | -5.77 | 106 |
LouisianaTech | CUSA | 7-1 | 10-2 | -2.3 | 83 | 84 | -0.6 | 77 | +2.8 | 92 | +4.6 | 49 | -14.25 | 130 |
WesternKentucky | CUSA | 5-4 | 7-5 | -2.4 | 84 | 80 | -7.6 | 111 | -5.1 | 40 | -0.3 | 76 | -4.79 | 100 |
VirginiaTech | ACC | 5-3 | 6-6 | -2.5 | 85 | 101 | -1.1 | 79 | +1.9 | 84 | +1.2 | 67 | -0.42 | 76 |
Army | Ind | 3-6 | 5-8 | -2.7 | 86 | 94 | -6.4 | 108 | -4.7 | 42 | -7.5 | 112 | -8.93 | 125 |
SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 5-3 | 7-5 | -3.1 | 87 | 91 | -2.4 | 88 | +1.0 | 76 | -0.0 | 73 | -6.02 | 107 |
CentralMichigan | MAC | 6-4 | 7-5 | -3.6 | 88 | 105 | +0.8 | 66 | +4.5 | 106 | -1.9 | 85 | -7.52 | 118 |
Colorado | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -3.7 | 89 | 74 | -2.3 | 87 | +1.1 | 78 | -4.0 | 94 | 7.55 | 15 |
SouthFlorida | Amer | 4-4 | 5-7 | -3.8 | 90 | 96 | -3.0 | 91 | +1.2 | 79 | +0.5 | 70 | 4.15 | 46 |
MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 3-6 | 5-7 | -3.8 | 91 | 82 | -1.1 | 80 | +2.4 | 90 | -4.6 | 99 | -1.34 | 79 |
Northwestern | B10 | 1-7 | 3-9 | -4.0 | 92 | 75 | -9.5 | 116 | -6.6 | 31 | -8.6 | 114 | 7.41 | 19 |
Kansas | B12 | 3-6 | 3-9 | -4.1 | 93 | 88 | -1.5 | 82 | +2.1 | 86 | -5.7 | 105 | 6.81 | 23 |
CoastalCarolina | Sun | 4-4 | 6-6 | -4.9 | 94 | 93 | -5.0 | 104 | -0.4 | 71 | -4.5 | 98 | -8.71 | 124 |
MiamiOH | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | -4.9 | 95 | 97 | -2.2 | 85 | +3.7 | 100 | +3.2 | 55 | -2.31 | 85 |
NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 4-4 | 5-7 | -5.0 | 96 | 86 | -6.8 | 109 | -1.7 | 64 | -2.5 | 87 | 0.42 | 70 |
NorthTexas | CUSA | 4-5 | 6-6 | -5.0 | 97 | 99 | +2.7 | 55 | +7.3 | 111 | -6.6 | 109 | -7.59 | 119 |
Arizona | P12 | 4-5 | 4-8 | -5.1 | 98 | 83 | +2.1 | 60 | +7.4 | 113 | -2.9 | 90 | 4.17 | 45 |
UAB | CUSA | 6-2 | 8-4 | -6.2 | 99 | 95 | -3.6 | 96 | +2.8 | 93 | -2.8 | 88 | -14.53 | 131 |
SanJoseState | MWC | 4-5 | 5-7 | -6.6 | 100 | 102 | +1.7 | 62 | +8.4 | 115 | -4.2 | 96 | -5.02 | 102 |
Syracuse | ACC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -6.8 | 101 | 87 | -3.2 | 94 | +3.3 | 96 | -6.3 | 107 | 2.31 | 57 |
ColoradoState | MWC | 4-5 | 4-8 | -7.0 | 102 | 104 | +1.9 | 61 | +8.9 | 116 | -5.5 | 104 | -3.17 | 89 |
Toledo | MAC | 5-3 | 7-5 | -7.5 | 103 | 106 | -5.2 | 106 | +3.2 | 95 | +1.0 | 69 | -6.75 | 110 |
Liberty | Ind | 6-3 | 7-5 | -7.7 | 104 | 108 | -3.1 | 92 | +4.8 | 107 | -3.5 | 93 | -13.13 | 129 |
Arkansas | SEC | 2-7 | 3-9 | -8.0 | 105 | 100 | -3.5 | 95 | +3.8 | 101 | -9.5 | 118 | 7.41 | 20 |
Charlotte | CUSA | 4-5 | 6-6 | -8.4 | 106 | 110 | +1.5 | 64 | +10.2 | 123 | -4.3 | 97 | -7.44 | 116 |
EasternMichigan | MAC | 4-5 | 6-6 | -9.0 | 107 | 103 | -2.6 | 89 | +6.7 | 109 | -4.1 | 95 | -7.76 | 121 |
GeorgiaTech | ACC | 2-6 | 3-9 | -9.0 | 108 | 107 | -7.7 | 112 | +1.3 | 80 | -5.5 | 103 | 5.96 | 30 |
NorthernIllinois | MAC | 3-6 | 4-8 | -9.1 | 109 | 98 | -5.0 | 105 | +3.7 | 99 | -8.6 | 115 | -4.58 | 98 |
EastCarolina | Amer | 3-6 | 4-8 | -9.4 | 110 | 115 | -4.8 | 103 | +4.4 | 105 | -7.3 | 111 | -2.40 | 86 |
KentState | MAC | 3-5 | 4-8 | -10.0 | 111 | 111 | -3.1 | 93 | +6.9 | 110 | -6.7 | 110 | -3.54 | 91 |
FIU | CUSA | 5-4 | 5-7 | -10.1 | 112 | 109 | -6.9 | 110 | +3.2 | 94 | -5.7 | 106 | -8.63 | 123 |
Troy | Sun | 3-5 | 4-8 | -10.1 | 113 | 114 | +1.4 | 65 | +10.8 | 125 | -11.6 | 121 | -7.34 | 114 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-6 | 3-9 | -10.8 | 114 | 112 | -7.9 | 113 | +2.4 | 91 | -9.3 | 117 | 3.91 | 49 |
LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 3-5 | 4-8 | -11.9 | 115 | 113 | -0.4 | 76 | +12.0 | 127 | -5.4 | 102 | -1.14 | 78 |
TexasState | Sun | 2-6 | 3-9 | -14.6 | 116 | 118 | -16.4 | 129 | -2.0 | 61 | -6.5 | 108 | -2.14 | 82 |
Rice | CUSA | 0-9 | 1-11 | -14.9 | 117 | 117 | -13.8 | 125 | -0.5 | 69 | -16.4 | 127 | -3.16 | 88 |
UNLV | MWC | 2-7 | 3-9 | -15.2 | 118 | 116 | -5.6 | 107 | +9.3 | 120 | -12.0 | 122 | -4.96 | 101 |
OldDominion | CUSA | 1-8 | 2-10 | -18.9 | 119 | 122 | -13.9 | 126 | +4.0 | 103 | -16.0 | 126 | -6.98 | 113 |
Nevada | MWC | 5-4 | 6-6 | -19.1 | 120 | 120 | -11.5 | 120 | +9.3 | 119 | -1.5 | 83 | -5.17 | 104 |
Rutgers | B10 | 2-7 | 2-10 | -19.8 | 121 | 121 | -12.8 | 123 | +7.5 | 114 | -8.3 | 113 | 10.22 | 4 |
NewMexico | MWC | 2-7 | 2-11 | -20.1 | 122 | 119 | -10.9 | 119 | +9.0 | 117 | -13.7 | 123 | -2.19 | 84 |
Connecticut | Amer | 2-7 | 2-10 | -21.0 | 123 | 123 | -10.9 | 118 | +10.4 | 124 | -11.4 | 120 | -0.82 | 77 |
UTSA | CUSA | 3-5 | 4-8 | -21.3 | 124 | 124 | -12.0 | 121 | +9.7 | 121 | -10.4 | 119 | -7.47 | 117 |
SouthAlabama | Sun | 1-7 | 1-11 | -22.1 | 125 | 125 | -18.9 | 130 | +2.2 | 87 | -14.9 | 124 | -4.11 | 95 |
NewMexicoState | Ind | 0-8 | 2-10 | -22.6 | 126 | 126 | -9.4 | 115 | +12.9 | 130 | -17.4 | 128 | -5.13 | 103 |
BowlingGreen | MAC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -23.3 | 127 | 128 | -14.3 | 127 | +9.8 | 122 | -8.7 | 116 | -6.85 | 112 |
FCS | Z_FCS | 3-101 | 3-111 | -24.8 | 128 | 127 | -12.3 | 122 | +12.7 | 128 | -15.1 | 125 | 1.42 | 62 |
UTEP | CUSA | 1-7 | 2-10 | -27.8 | 129 | 129 | -14.6 | 128 | +12.8 | 129 | -19.2 | 129 | -11.97 | 128 |
Akron | MAC | 0-9 | 0-12 | -37.3 | 130 | 130 | -24.2 | 131 | +11.8 | 126 | -25.4 | 131 | -9.76 | 126 |
Massachusetts | Ind | 1-8 | 1-11 | -41.4 | 131 | 131 | -12.9 | 124 | +30.2 | 131 | -22.5 | 130 | -10.77 | 127 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 12-0 | +47.7 | 1 | 1 | +27.0 | 1 | -22.1 | 1 | +24.1 | 1 | 9.52 | 6 |
PennState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | +35.2 | 2 | 2 | +16.7 | 6 | -18.4 | 3 | +22.3 | 3 | 8.91 | 8 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 10-2 | +31.6 | 4 | 5 | +13.4 | 10 | -19.1 | 2 | +12.6 | 21 | 8.46 | 10 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +23.0 | 11 | 11 | +9.5 | 16 | -13.4 | 9 | +14.1 | 15 | 12.78 | 1 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-2 | 9-3 | +18.9 | 14 | 13 | +0.3 | 71 | -17.9 | 4 | +11.2 | 23 | 7.65 | 14 |
Minnesota | B10 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +15.3 | 21 | 23 | +6.9 | 27 | -7.4 | 30 | +16.0 | 6 | 4.48 | 40 |
MichiganState | B10 | 4-4 | 7-5 | +15.1 | 22 | 22 | +3.7 | 48 | -11.6 | 12 | +6.5 | 37 | 11.44 | 2 |
Indiana | B10 | 7-2 | 8-4 | +12.6 | 30 | 35 | +6.7 | 30 | -5.8 | 35 | +8.1 | 32 | 4.66 | 38 |
Illinois | B10 | 5-4 | 6-6 | +2.0 | 65 | 63 | +2.2 | 59 | +0.0 | 74 | +0.0 | 72 | 1.15 | 64 |
Nebraska | B10 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +1.1 | 69 | 57 | +2.6 | 56 | +1.1 | 77 | -1.6 | 84 | 7.49 | 17 |
Maryland | B10 | 3-6 | 4-8 | +0.7 | 71 | 59 | +3.3 | 50 | +2.0 | 85 | -3.1 | 91 | 7.43 | 18 |
Purdue | B10 | 3-6 | 4-8 | +0.0 | 73 | 73 | +0.3 | 70 | -0.2 | 72 | -3.1 | 92 | 7.73 | 13 |
Northwestern | B10 | 1-7 | 3-9 | -4.0 | 92 | 75 | -9.5 | 116 | -6.6 | 31 | -8.6 | 114 | 7.41 | 19 |
Rutgers | B10 | 2-7 | 2-10 | -19.8 | 121 | 121 | -12.8 | 123 | +7.5 | 114 | -8.3 | 113 | 10.22 | 4 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson | ACC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +30.7 | 5 | 3 | +14.5 | 9 | -16.5 | 7 | +17.3 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 |
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 12-0 | +47.7 | 1 | 1 | +27.0 | 1 | -22.1 | 1 | +24.1 | 1 | 0.77 | 2 |
Alabama | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +32.1 | 3 | 4 | +21.5 | 2 | -11.9 | 11 | +15.7 | 9 | 0.36 | 3 |
LSU | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +28.7 | 6 | 6 | +19.7 | 4 | -8.8 | 20 | +22.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 4 |
PennState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | +35.2 | 2 | 2 | +16.7 | 6 | -18.4 | 3 | +22.3 | 3 | 0.13 | 5 |
Baylor | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.4 | 29 | 20 | +3.4 | 49 | -8.7 | 21 | +15.6 | 10 | 0.07 | 6 |
Minnesota | B10 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +15.3 | 21 | 23 | +6.9 | 27 | -7.4 | 30 | +16.0 | 6 | 0.01 | 7 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
Now the more interesting set:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Akron | MAC | 0-9 | 0-12 | -37.3 | 130 | 130 | -24.2 | 131 | +11.8 | 126 | -25.4 | 131 | 0.90 | 1 |
Rice | CUSA | 0-9 | 1-11 | -14.9 | 117 | 117 | -13.8 | 125 | -0.5 | 69 | -16.4 | 127 | 0.14 | 2 |
NewMexicoState | Ind | 0-8 | 2-10 | -22.6 | 126 | 126 | -9.4 | 115 | +12.9 | 130 | -17.4 | 128 | 0.02 | 3 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson | ACC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +30.7 | 5 | 3 | +14.5 | 9 | -16.5 | 7 | +17.3 | 5 | 0.99 | 1 |
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 12-0 | +47.7 | 1 | 1 | +27.0 | 1 | -22.1 | 1 | +24.1 | 1 | 0.99 | 2 |
LSU | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +28.7 | 6 | 6 | +19.7 | 4 | -8.8 | 20 | +22.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 3 |
PennState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | +35.2 | 2 | 2 | +16.7 | 6 | -18.4 | 3 | +22.3 | 3 | 0.84 | 4 |
Utah | P12 | 8-1 | 11-1 | +22.6 | 12 | 9 | +5.1 | 41 | -16.9 | 5 | +14.7 | 12 | 0.83 | 5 |
Alabama | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +32.1 | 3 | 4 | +21.5 | 2 | -11.9 | 11 | +15.7 | 9 | 0.82 | 6 |
Oregon | P12 | 8-1 | 11-1 | +23.5 | 9 | 12 | +11.8 | 12 | -11.6 | 13 | +15.4 | 11 | 0.77 | 7 |
Baylor | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.4 | 29 | 20 | +3.4 | 49 | -8.7 | 21 | +15.6 | 10 | 0.37 | 10 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 7-1 | 10-2 | +25.4 | 8 | 8 | +20.3 | 3 | -6.1 | 34 | +13.1 | 19 | 0.37 | 11 |
Georgia | SEC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +23.0 | 10 | 10 | +7.0 | 26 | -15.7 | 8 | +14.2 | 14 | 0.25 | 15 |
Minnesota | B10 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +15.3 | 21 | 23 | +6.9 | 27 | -7.4 | 30 | +16.0 | 6 | 0.10 | 19 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-1 | 9-3 | +9.1 | 40 | 44 | +8.3 | 20 | +0.0 | 73 | +11.2 | 24 | 0.02 | 20 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2019
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati | Amer | 7-1 | 10-2 | +15.8 | 19 | 15 | +5.3 | 38 | -9.1 | 18 | +17.9 | 4 | 0.80 | 4 |
Baylor | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.4 | 29 | 20 | +3.4 | 49 | -8.7 | 21 | +15.6 | 10 | 0.73 | 10 |
SMU | Amer | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.0 | 25 | 25 | +14.5 | 8 | +1.3 | 81 | +15.8 | 8 | 0.69 | 11 |
Minnesota | B10 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +15.3 | 21 | 23 | +6.9 | 27 | -7.4 | 30 | +16.0 | 6 | 0.62 | 15 |
BoiseState | MWC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +12.2 | 33 | 30 | +6.8 | 29 | -4.5 | 43 | +13.8 | 16 | 0.62 | 16 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-1 | 9-3 | +9.1 | 40 | 44 | +8.3 | 20 | +0.0 | 73 | +11.2 | 24 | 0.57 | 18 |
Memphis | Amer | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.0 | 26 | 31 | +11.1 | 14 | -2.2 | 59 | +14.4 | 13 | 0.54 | 20 |
LSU | SEC | 8-0 | 11-1 | +28.7 | 6 | 6 | +19.7 | 4 | -8.8 | 20 | +22.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 35 |
AppalachianState | Sun | 7-1 | 10-2 | +12.2 | 32 | 21 | +7.6 | 23 | -4.3 | 45 | +10.6 | 25 | 0.24 | 37 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-2 | 9-3 | +16.1 | 18 | 16 | +7.8 | 22 | -7.9 | 25 | +12.8 | 20 | 0.19 | 43 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rutgers | B10 | 2-7 | 2-10 | -19.8 | 121 | 121 | -12.8 | 123 | +7.5 | 114 | -8.3 | 113 | 10.22 | 4 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-6 | 3-9 | -10.8 | 114 | 112 | -7.9 | 113 | +2.4 | 91 | -9.3 | 117 | 3.91 | 49 |
GeorgiaTech | ACC | 2-6 | 3-9 | -9.0 | 108 | 107 | -7.7 | 112 | +1.3 | 80 | -5.5 | 103 | 5.96 | 30 |
Arkansas | SEC | 2-7 | 3-9 | -8.0 | 105 | 100 | -3.5 | 95 | +3.8 | 101 | -9.5 | 118 | 7.41 | 20 |
Syracuse | ACC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -6.8 | 101 | 87 | -3.2 | 94 | +3.3 | 96 | -6.3 | 107 | 2.31 | 57 |
Arizona | P12 | 4-5 | 4-8 | -5.1 | 98 | 83 | +2.1 | 60 | +7.4 | 113 | -2.9 | 90 | 4.17 | 45 |
NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 4-4 | 5-7 | -5.0 | 96 | 86 | -6.8 | 109 | -1.7 | 64 | -2.5 | 87 | 0.42 | 70 |
Kansas | B12 | 3-6 | 3-9 | -4.1 | 93 | 88 | -1.5 | 82 | +2.1 | 86 | -5.7 | 105 | 6.81 | 23 |
Northwestern | B10 | 1-7 | 3-9 | -4.0 | 92 | 75 | -9.5 | 116 | -6.6 | 31 | -8.6 | 114 | 7.41 | 19 |
Colorado | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -3.7 | 89 | 74 | -2.3 | 87 | +1.1 | 78 | -4.0 | 94 | 7.55 | 15 |
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 | Sat | 2019-11-02 | #9 Oregon | V | #37 USC | W | 56 | 24 |
11 | Sat | 2019-11-02 | #54 BYU | V | #66 UtahState | W | 42 | 14 |
11 | Sat | 2019-11-02 | #11 Michigan | V | #71 Maryland | W | 38 | 7 |
11 | Sat | 2019-11-02 | #10 Georgia | N | #15 Florida | W | 24 | 17 |
11 | Sat | 2019-11-02 | #88 CentralMichigan | H | #108 NorthernIllinois | W | 48 | 10 |
And of the year (so far):
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 | Sat | 2019-10-26 | #1 OhioState | H | #4 Wisconsin | W | 38 | 7 |
3 | Sat | 2019-09-07 | #1 OhioState | H | #19 Cincinnati | W | 42 | 0 |
4 | Sat | 2019-09-14 | #1 OhioState | V | #30 Indiana | W | 51 | 10 |
6 | Fri | 2019-09-27 | #2 PennState | V | #71 Maryland | W | 59 | 0 |
3 | Sat | 2019-09-07 | #4 Wisconsin | H | #88 CentralMichigan | W | 61 | 0 |
5 | Sat | 2019-09-21 | #1 OhioState | H | #90 MiamiOH | W | 76 | 5 |
8 | Sat | 2019-10-12 | #4 Wisconsin | H | #22 MichiganState | W | 38 | 0 |
2 | Fri | 2019-08-30 | #4 Wisconsin | V | #91 SouthFlorida | W | 49 | 0 |
10 | Sat | 2019-10-26 | #11 Michigan | H | #18 NotreDame | W | 45 | 14 |
10 | Sat | 2019-10-26 | #5 Clemson | H | #68 BostonCollege | W | 59 | 7 |
No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)
THE PICKINGS
I went 27-20-0 against the spread last week, 251-246-3 (50.5%) on the season. I make no claims on the ability of these ratings to outperform Vegas, gambling is a sin anyway. On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 264.5 over 502 games, which would rank #20 (out of 63 ratings systems) here: [LINK]
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. Lines are taken from whatever site is most convenient at this time. It's not a rigorous process.
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV | VegPrj | Pk vs Veg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 9 | #3 Alabama | H | #6 LSU | 66% | 5.8 | 6.5 | LSU |
Nov 9 | #20 KansasState | V | #24 Texas | 47% | -1.2 | -7.0 | KansasState |
Nov 9 | #14 Iowa | V | #4 Wisconsin | 16% | -14.9 | -9.5 | Wisconsin |
Nov 9 | #29 Baylor | V | #39 TCU | 54% | 1.4 | 2.5 | TCU |
Nov 9 | #17 IowaState | V | #8 Oklahoma | 22% | -11.4 | -14.5 | IowaState |
Nov 9 | #2 PennState | V | #21 Minnesota | 87% | 16.8 | 7.0 | PennState |
Nov 9 | #48 SouthCarolina | H | #32 AppalachianState | 41% | -3.2 | 5.5 | AppalachianState |
Nov 9 | #47 Duke | H | #18 NotreDame | 33% | -6.3 | -8.0 | Duke |
Nov 9 | #46 Louisville | V | #42 Miami | 40% | -3.5 | -6.5 | Louisville |
Nov 9 | #52 ArizonaState | H | #37 USC | 42% | -2.8 | 2.0 | USC |
Nov 9 | #51 Kentucky | H | #50 Tennessee | 54% | 1.3 | 1.0 | Kentucky |
Nov 9 | #68 BostonCollege | H | #53 FloridaState | 49% | -0.2 | 2.0 | FloridaState |
Nov 9 | #59 California | H | #35 WashingtonState | 34% | -5.8 | -7.5 | California |
Nov 9 | #66 UtahState | V | #77 FresnoState | 51% | 0.4 | -6.0 | UtahState |
Nov 8 | #58 OregonState | H | #23 Washington | 27% | -8.7 | -10.0 | OregonState |
Nov 9 | #10 Georgia | H | #41 Missouri | 86% | 16.4 | 16.5 | Missouri |
Nov 9 | #63 TexasTech | V | #81 WestVirginia | 55% | 1.7 | 2.5 | WestVirginia |
Nov 8 | #16 CentralFlorida | V | #62 Tulsa | 80% | 12.6 | 17.0 | Tulsa |
Nov 9 | #33 BoiseState | H | #55 Wyoming | 77% | 11.0 | 13.0 | Wyoming |
Nov 7 | #90 SouthFlorida | H | #70 Temple | 45% | -1.9 | -1.5 | Temple |
Nov 9 | #92 Northwestern | H | #73 Purdue | 46% | -1.4 | 2.0 | Purdue |
Nov 9 | #67 Stanford | V | #89 Colorado | 57% | 2.4 | 3.5 | Colorado |
Nov 5 | #74 BallState | V | #64 WesternMichigan | 37% | -4.7 | ~ | ~ |
Nov 9 | #40 WakeForest | V | #85 VirginiaTech | 73% | 8.9 | 2.5 | WakeForest |
Nov 9 | #22 MichiganState | H | #65 Illinois | 85% | 15.2 | 14.5 | MichiganState |
Nov 9 | #84 WesternKentucky | V | #105 Arkansas | 58% | 3.0 | -1.5 | WesternKentucky |
Nov 9 | #83 LouisianaTech | H | #97 NorthTexas | 64% | 5.2 | 5.5 | NorthTexas |
Nov 6 | #95 MiamiOH | V | #80 Ohio | 35% | -5.6 | -7.0 | MiamiOH |
Nov 9 | #87 SouthernMississippi | H | #99 UAB | 65% | 5.5 | 5.0 | SouthernMississippi |
Nov 7 | #94 CoastalCarolina | H | #28 LouisianaLafayette | 15% | -15.5 | -14.0 | LouisianaLafayette |
Nov 9 | #76 Hawaii | H | #100 SanJoseState | 72% | 8.3 | 7.5 | Hawaii |
Nov 9 | #75 GeorgiaSouthern | V | #113 Troy | 69% | 7.2 | 3.0 | GeorgiaSouthern |
Nov 5 | #111 KentState | V | #103 Toledo | 37% | -4.9 | ~ | ~ |
Nov 9 | #79 GeorgiaState | V | #115 LouisianaMonroe | 70% | 7.6 | 2.5 | GeorgiaState |
Nov 9 | #54 BYU | H | #104 Liberty | 83% | 14.0 | 17.0 | Liberty |
Nov 9 | #5 Clemson | V | #96 NorthCarolinaState | 97% | 32.3 | 32.0 | Clemson |
Nov 9 | #108 GeorgiaTech | V | #36 Virginia | 8% | -21.5 | -16.0 | Virginia |
Nov 9 | #112 FIU | V | #45 FloridaAtlantic | 10% | -20.1 | -10.0 | FloridaAtlantic |
Nov 9 | #110 EastCarolina | V | #25 SMU | 6% | -25.3 | -21.5 | SMU |
Nov 9 | #119 OldDominion | H | #124 UTSA | 63% | 4.8 | 4.0 | OldDominion |
Nov 9 | #71 Maryland | V | #1 OhioState | 0% | -48.3 | -43.5 | OhioState |
Nov 9 | #15 Florida | H | #114 Vanderbilt | 97% | 31.4 | 26.0 | Florida |
Nov 9 | #125 SouthAlabama | V | #116 TexasState | 25% | -9.7 | -7.5 | TexasState |
Nov 9 | #120 Nevada | V | #61 SanDiegoState | 7% | -23.2 | -17.0 | SanDiegoState |
Nov 9 | #31 AirForce | V | #122 NewMexico | 96% | 29.3 | 21.5 | AirForce |
Nov 9 | #106 Charlotte | V | #129 UTEP | 86% | 16.5 | 13.0 | Charlotte |
Nov 9 | #126 NewMexicoState | V | #56 Mississippi | 4% | -27.6 | -28.5 | NewMexicoState |
Nov 9 | #19 Cincinnati | H | #123 Connecticut | 99% | 38.3 | 35.0 | Cincinnati |
Nov 9 | #86 Army | H | #131 Massachusetts | 99% | 40.2 | 34.5 | Army |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV | VegPrj | Pk vs Veg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 9 | #14 Iowa | V | #4 Wisconsin | 16% | -14.9 | -9.5 | Wisconsin |
Nov 9 | #2 PennState | V | #21 Minnesota | 87% | 16.8 | 7.0 | PennState |
Nov 9 | #92 Northwestern | H | #73 Purdue | 46% | -1.4 | 2.0 | Purdue |
Nov 9 | #22 MichiganState | H | #65 Illinois | 85% | 15.2 | 14.5 | MichiganState |
Nov 9 | #71 Maryland | V | #1 OhioState | 0% | -48.3 | -43.5 | OhioState |
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