FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2019 Week 12

Daughter got sick this week, which cuts into OTE time. The nerve of her, got to teach her to respect her dad's priorities.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 8-0 12-0 +47.7 1 1 +27.0 1 -22.1 1 +24.1 1 9.52 6
PennState B10 8-0 11-1 +35.2 2 2 +16.7 6 -18.4 3 +22.3 3 8.91 8
Alabama SEC 8-0 11-1 +32.1 3 4 +21.5 2 -11.9 11 +15.7 9 2.87 54
Wisconsin B10 6-2 10-2 +31.6 4 5 +13.4 10 -19.1 2 +12.6 21 8.46 10
Clemson ACC 9-0 12-0 +30.7 5 3 +14.5 9 -16.5 7 +17.3 5 0.71 66
LSU SEC 8-0 11-1 +28.7 6 6 +19.7 4 -8.8 20 +22.4 2 6.10 27
Auburn SEC 7-2 9-3 +25.6 7 7 +8.7 18 -16.6 6 +15.8 7 10.90 3
Oklahoma B12 7-1 10-2 +25.4 8 8 +20.3 3 -6.1 34 +13.1 19 5.55 34
Oregon P12 8-1 11-1 +23.5 9 12 +11.8 12 -11.6 13 +15.4 11 1.98 58
Georgia SEC 7-1 10-2 +23.0 10 10 +7.0 26 -15.7 8 +14.2 14 3.89 50
Michigan B10 7-2 9-3 +23.0 11 11 +9.5 16 -13.4 9 +14.1 15 12.78 1
Utah P12 8-1 11-1 +22.6 12 9 +5.1 41 -16.9 5 +14.7 12 0.58 68
Navy Amer 7-1 10-2 +19.1 13 18 +10.1 15 -8.8 19 +13.4 17 0.56 69
Iowa B10 6-2 9-3 +18.9 14 13 +0.3 71 -17.9 4 +11.2 23 7.65 14
Florida SEC 7-2 10-2 +18.8 15 14 +6.3 33 -12.1 10 +13.3 18 4.47 41
CentralFlorida Amer 7-2 9-3 +17.7 16 17 +17.2 5 -1.0 68 +10.3 26 -2.07 81
IowaState B12 5-3 7-5 +16.3 17 19 +8.8 17 -8.2 22 +6.4 38 7.52 16
NotreDame Ind 6-2 9-3 +16.1 18 16 +7.8 22 -7.9 25 +12.8 20 4.69 37
Cincinnati Amer 7-1 10-2 +15.8 19 15 +5.3 38 -9.1 18 +17.9 4 3.86 51
KansasState B12 6-2 9-3 +15.3 20 29 +4.6 42 -10.3 16 +11.4 22 3.74 53
Minnesota B10 8-0 10-2 +15.3 21 23 +6.9 27 -7.4 30 +16.0 6 4.48 40
MichiganState B10 4-4 7-5 +15.1 22 22 +3.7 48 -11.6 12 +6.5 37 11.44 2
Washington P12 5-4 7-5 +14.3 23 24 +7.3 24 -7.6 28 +5.1 46 4.98 36
Texas B12 5-3 7-5 +14.0 24 27 +13.0 11 -1.5 65 +7.9 33 8.43 11
SMU Amer 8-1 10-2 +14.0 25 25 +14.5 8 +1.3 81 +15.8 8 1.96 59
Memphis Amer 8-1 10-2 +14.0 26 31 +11.1 14 -2.2 59 +14.4 13 -0.36 75
OklahomaState B12 6-3 8-4 +13.9 27 28 +11.6 13 -2.5 58 +8.8 31 6.73 25
LouisianaLafayette Sun 6-2 10-2 +13.6 28 32 +5.6 36 -7.8 26 +9.0 30 -7.38 115
Baylor B12 8-0 10-2 +13.4 29 20 +3.4 49 -8.7 21 +15.6 10 1.76 60
Indiana B10 7-2 8-4 +12.6 30 35 +6.7 30 -5.8 35 +8.1 32 4.66 38
AirForce MWC 7-2 11-2 +12.6 31 26 +4.5 43 -7.6 29 +10.2 27 -3.60 92
AppalachianState Sun 7-1 10-2 +12.2 32 21 +7.6 23 -4.3 45 +10.6 25 -6.12 108
BoiseState MWC 7-1 10-2 +12.2 33 30 +6.8 29 -4.5 43 +13.8 16 -3.65 93
TexasAM SEC 6-3 7-5 +11.7 34 34 +6.3 34 -5.6 37 +6.0 41 6.25 26
WashingtonState P12 4-4 7-5 +11.1 35 36 +15.1 7 +2.3 88 -1.4 82 2.36 56
Virginia ACC 6-3 9-3 +10.5 36 38 +5.5 37 -5.0 41 +7.0 35 -0.23 74
USC P12 5-4 7-5 +9.6 37 33 +6.4 32 -3.2 52 +6.8 36 6.75 24
Tulane Amer 6-3 7-5 +9.6 38 39 +7.8 21 -1.9 62 +5.7 43 2.69 55
TCU B12 4-4 6-6 +9.4 39 37 +4.3 45 -5.6 36 +2.6 59 5.59 33
WakeForest ACC 7-1 9-3 +9.1 40 44 +8.3 20 +0.0 73 +11.2 24 -0.04 73
Missouri SEC 5-3 7-5 +8.7 41 41 +3.2 52 -6.5 32 -0.4 77 0.70 67
Miami ACC 5-4 7-5 +8.2 42 51 +0.4 69 -8.1 24 +3.2 54 0.90 65
MississippiState SEC 4-5 6-6 +8.2 43 49 +7.1 25 -1.4 66 +4.0 51 8.89 9
NorthCarolina ACC 4-5 6-6 +8.1 44 40 +3.2 53 -5.3 38 +2.8 57 4.57 39
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 6-3 9-3 +8.0 45 45 +5.2 39 -2.7 57 +6.1 40 -3.38 90
Louisville ACC 5-3 8-4 +7.2 46 43 +8.4 19 +1.8 83 +9.3 28 4.13 47
Duke ACC 4-4 6-6 +7.0 47 46 +4.4 44 -2.8 55 +3.4 53 4.43 42
SouthCarolina SEC 4-5 5-7 +6.4 48 47 +4.0 47 -3.1 54 -0.2 74 9.94 5
Pittsburgh ACC 6-3 8-4 +5.6 49 50 -4.6 102 -9.4 17 +7.8 34 4.24 43
Tennessee SEC 4-5 6-6 +5.5 50 60 -2.1 83 -7.8 27 +1.4 66 5.82 31
Kentucky SEC 4-4 7-5 +4.3 51 52 -3.8 98 -8.1 23 +1.8 63 1.55 61
ArizonaState P12 5-3 7-5 +4.2 52 53 -2.2 86 -6.1 33 +4.0 52 3.81 52
FloridaState ACC 4-5 6-6 +4.1 53 42 +0.7 67 -3.3 51 +3.0 56 4.22 44
BYU Ind 4-4 7-5 +4.1 54 72 +0.0 72 -3.6 49 +5.8 42 -1.56 80
Wyoming MWC 6-2 8-4 +3.4 55 54 -0.9 78 -3.8 48 +5.3 45 -4.12 96
Mississippi SEC 3-6 4-8 +3.1 56 67 -0.0 73 -4.3 44 -4.9 100 5.98 29
Houston Amer 3-6 4-8 +3.0 57 56 -0.1 74 -3.8 47 -2.9 89 5.67 32
OregonState P12 4-4 5-7 +2.8 58 70 +6.8 28 +3.9 102 +1.1 68 5.29 35
California P12 4-4 6-6 +2.6 59 64 -8.2 114 -10.7 15 +1.7 65 5.99 28
UCLA P12 4-5 5-7 +2.4 60 66 +3.0 54 +0.6 75 +1.8 64 7.41 21
SanDiegoState MWC 7-1 10-2 +2.2 61 61 -10.6 117 -11.4 14 +9.2 29 -6.84 111
Tulsa Amer 2-7 3-9 +2.2 62 58 -1.2 81 -3.8 46 -1.3 79 9.12 7
TexasTech B12 3-5 4-8 +2.1 63 55 +0.4 68 -2.8 56 -4.9 101 3.97 48
WesternMichigan MAC 5-4 7-5 +2.1 64 65 +4.2 46 +1.8 82 -0.3 75 -6.51 109
Illinois B10 5-4 6-6 +2.0 65 63 +2.2 59 +0.0 74 +0.0 72 1.15 64
UtahState MWC 4-4 6-6 +1.7 66 48 -0.1 75 -1.2 67 +4.9 47 -0.02 72
Stanford P12 4-4 6-6 +1.4 67 62 -4.2 100 -5.3 39 +2.6 60 7.26 22
BostonCollege ACC 5-4 6-6 +1.4 68 76 +5.1 40 +4.0 104 +2.7 58 1.39 63
Nebraska B10 4-5 5-7 +1.1 69 57 +2.6 56 +1.1 77 -1.6 84 7.49 17
Temple Amer 5-3 7-5 +0.7 70 71 -2.2 84 -2.1 60 +5.4 44 0.21 71
Maryland B10 3-6 4-8 +0.7 71 59 +3.3 50 +2.0 85 -3.1 91 7.43 18
Buffalo MAC 5-4 7-5 +0.2 72 89 -2.9 90 -3.2 53 +0.2 71 -7.76 120
Purdue B10 3-6 4-8 +0.0 73 73 +0.3 70 -0.2 72 -3.1 92 7.73 13
BallState MAC 4-4 6-6 -0.1 74 69 +2.5 57 +2.4 89 -1.4 81 -4.43 97
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 5-3 8-4 -0.2 75 92 -4.5 101 -3.4 50 +6.1 39 -2.17 83
Hawaii MWC 5-4 8-5 -0.6 76 68 +6.2 35 +7.3 112 +2.3 61 -2.71 87
FresnoState MWC 4-4 6-6 -1.3 77 79 +2.3 58 +3.4 98 -2.1 86 -4.60 99
ArkansasState Sun 5-4 7-5 -1.5 78 77 +3.3 51 +5.3 108 +2.3 62 -3.73 94
GeorgiaState Sun 6-2 8-4 -1.5 79 81 +6.7 31 +9.2 118 +4.8 48 -5.28 105
Ohio MAC 4-4 7-5 -1.7 80 78 +1.7 63 +3.4 97 -1.3 80 -7.82 122
WestVirginia B12 3-5 4-8 -2.1 81 90 -3.9 99 -1.8 63 -1.1 78 8.14 12
Marshall CUSA 6-3 8-4 -2.2 82 85 -3.6 97 -0.5 70 +4.2 50 -5.77 106
LouisianaTech CUSA 7-1 10-2 -2.3 83 84 -0.6 77 +2.8 92 +4.6 49 -14.25 130
WesternKentucky CUSA 5-4 7-5 -2.4 84 80 -7.6 111 -5.1 40 -0.3 76 -4.79 100
VirginiaTech ACC 5-3 6-6 -2.5 85 101 -1.1 79 +1.9 84 +1.2 67 -0.42 76
Army Ind 3-6 5-8 -2.7 86 94 -6.4 108 -4.7 42 -7.5 112 -8.93 125
SouthernMississippi CUSA 5-3 7-5 -3.1 87 91 -2.4 88 +1.0 76 -0.0 73 -6.02 107
CentralMichigan MAC 6-4 7-5 -3.6 88 105 +0.8 66 +4.5 106 -1.9 85 -7.52 118
Colorado P12 3-6 4-8 -3.7 89 74 -2.3 87 +1.1 78 -4.0 94 7.55 15
SouthFlorida Amer 4-4 5-7 -3.8 90 96 -3.0 91 +1.2 79 +0.5 70 4.15 46
MiddleTennessee CUSA 3-6 5-7 -3.8 91 82 -1.1 80 +2.4 90 -4.6 99 -1.34 79
Northwestern B10 1-7 3-9 -4.0 92 75 -9.5 116 -6.6 31 -8.6 114 7.41 19
Kansas B12 3-6 3-9 -4.1 93 88 -1.5 82 +2.1 86 -5.7 105 6.81 23
CoastalCarolina Sun 4-4 6-6 -4.9 94 93 -5.0 104 -0.4 71 -4.5 98 -8.71 124
MiamiOH MAC 4-4 7-5 -4.9 95 97 -2.2 85 +3.7 100 +3.2 55 -2.31 85
NorthCarolinaState ACC 4-4 5-7 -5.0 96 86 -6.8 109 -1.7 64 -2.5 87 0.42 70
NorthTexas CUSA 4-5 6-6 -5.0 97 99 +2.7 55 +7.3 111 -6.6 109 -7.59 119
Arizona P12 4-5 4-8 -5.1 98 83 +2.1 60 +7.4 113 -2.9 90 4.17 45
UAB CUSA 6-2 8-4 -6.2 99 95 -3.6 96 +2.8 93 -2.8 88 -14.53 131
SanJoseState MWC 4-5 5-7 -6.6 100 102 +1.7 62 +8.4 115 -4.2 96 -5.02 102
Syracuse ACC 3-6 3-9 -6.8 101 87 -3.2 94 +3.3 96 -6.3 107 2.31 57
ColoradoState MWC 4-5 4-8 -7.0 102 104 +1.9 61 +8.9 116 -5.5 104 -3.17 89
Toledo MAC 5-3 7-5 -7.5 103 106 -5.2 106 +3.2 95 +1.0 69 -6.75 110
Liberty Ind 6-3 7-5 -7.7 104 108 -3.1 92 +4.8 107 -3.5 93 -13.13 129
Arkansas SEC 2-7 3-9 -8.0 105 100 -3.5 95 +3.8 101 -9.5 118 7.41 20
Charlotte CUSA 4-5 6-6 -8.4 106 110 +1.5 64 +10.2 123 -4.3 97 -7.44 116
EasternMichigan MAC 4-5 6-6 -9.0 107 103 -2.6 89 +6.7 109 -4.1 95 -7.76 121
GeorgiaTech ACC 2-6 3-9 -9.0 108 107 -7.7 112 +1.3 80 -5.5 103 5.96 30
NorthernIllinois MAC 3-6 4-8 -9.1 109 98 -5.0 105 +3.7 99 -8.6 115 -4.58 98
EastCarolina Amer 3-6 4-8 -9.4 110 115 -4.8 103 +4.4 105 -7.3 111 -2.40 86
KentState MAC 3-5 4-8 -10.0 111 111 -3.1 93 +6.9 110 -6.7 110 -3.54 91
FIU CUSA 5-4 5-7 -10.1 112 109 -6.9 110 +3.2 94 -5.7 106 -8.63 123
Troy Sun 3-5 4-8 -10.1 113 114 +1.4 65 +10.8 125 -11.6 121 -7.34 114
Vanderbilt SEC 2-6 3-9 -10.8 114 112 -7.9 113 +2.4 91 -9.3 117 3.91 49
LouisianaMonroe Sun 3-5 4-8 -11.9 115 113 -0.4 76 +12.0 127 -5.4 102 -1.14 78
TexasState Sun 2-6 3-9 -14.6 116 118 -16.4 129 -2.0 61 -6.5 108 -2.14 82
Rice CUSA 0-9 1-11 -14.9 117 117 -13.8 125 -0.5 69 -16.4 127 -3.16 88
UNLV MWC 2-7 3-9 -15.2 118 116 -5.6 107 +9.3 120 -12.0 122 -4.96 101
OldDominion CUSA 1-8 2-10 -18.9 119 122 -13.9 126 +4.0 103 -16.0 126 -6.98 113
Nevada MWC 5-4 6-6 -19.1 120 120 -11.5 120 +9.3 119 -1.5 83 -5.17 104
Rutgers B10 2-7 2-10 -19.8 121 121 -12.8 123 +7.5 114 -8.3 113 10.22 4
NewMexico MWC 2-7 2-11 -20.1 122 119 -10.9 119 +9.0 117 -13.7 123 -2.19 84
Connecticut Amer 2-7 2-10 -21.0 123 123 -10.9 118 +10.4 124 -11.4 120 -0.82 77
UTSA CUSA 3-5 4-8 -21.3 124 124 -12.0 121 +9.7 121 -10.4 119 -7.47 117
SouthAlabama Sun 1-7 1-11 -22.1 125 125 -18.9 130 +2.2 87 -14.9 124 -4.11 95
NewMexicoState Ind 0-8 2-10 -22.6 126 126 -9.4 115 +12.9 130 -17.4 128 -5.13 103
BowlingGreen MAC 3-6 3-9 -23.3 127 128 -14.3 127 +9.8 122 -8.7 116 -6.85 112
FCS Z_FCS 3-101 3-111 -24.8 128 127 -12.3 122 +12.7 128 -15.1 125 1.42 62
UTEP CUSA 1-7 2-10 -27.8 129 129 -14.6 128 +12.8 129 -19.2 129 -11.97 128
Akron MAC 0-9 0-12 -37.3 130 130 -24.2 131 +11.8 126 -25.4 131 -9.76 126
Massachusetts Ind 1-8 1-11 -41.4 131 131 -12.9 124 +30.2 131 -22.5 130 -10.77 127

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 8-0 12-0 +47.7 1 1 +27.0 1 -22.1 1 +24.1 1 9.52 6
PennState B10 8-0 11-1 +35.2 2 2 +16.7 6 -18.4 3 +22.3 3 8.91 8
Wisconsin B10 6-2 10-2 +31.6 4 5 +13.4 10 -19.1 2 +12.6 21 8.46 10
Michigan B10 7-2 9-3 +23.0 11 11 +9.5 16 -13.4 9 +14.1 15 12.78 1
Iowa B10 6-2 9-3 +18.9 14 13 +0.3 71 -17.9 4 +11.2 23 7.65 14
Minnesota B10 8-0 10-2 +15.3 21 23 +6.9 27 -7.4 30 +16.0 6 4.48 40
MichiganState B10 4-4 7-5 +15.1 22 22 +3.7 48 -11.6 12 +6.5 37 11.44 2
Indiana B10 7-2 8-4 +12.6 30 35 +6.7 30 -5.8 35 +8.1 32 4.66 38
Illinois B10 5-4 6-6 +2.0 65 63 +2.2 59 +0.0 74 +0.0 72 1.15 64
Nebraska B10 4-5 5-7 +1.1 69 57 +2.6 56 +1.1 77 -1.6 84 7.49 17
Maryland B10 3-6 4-8 +0.7 71 59 +3.3 50 +2.0 85 -3.1 91 7.43 18
Purdue B10 3-6 4-8 +0.0 73 73 +0.3 70 -0.2 72 -3.1 92 7.73 13
Northwestern B10 1-7 3-9 -4.0 92 75 -9.5 116 -6.6 31 -8.6 114 7.41 19
Rutgers B10 2-7 2-10 -19.8 121 121 -12.8 123 +7.5 114 -8.3 113 10.22 4

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Clemson ACC 9-0 12-0 +30.7 5 3 +14.5 9 -16.5 7 +17.3 5 0.83 1
OhioState B10 8-0 12-0 +47.7 1 1 +27.0 1 -22.1 1 +24.1 1 0.77 2
Alabama SEC 8-0 11-1 +32.1 3 4 +21.5 2 -11.9 11 +15.7 9 0.36 3
LSU SEC 8-0 11-1 +28.7 6 6 +19.7 4 -8.8 20 +22.4 2 0.28 4
PennState B10 8-0 11-1 +35.2 2 2 +16.7 6 -18.4 3 +22.3 3 0.13 5
Baylor B12 8-0 10-2 +13.4 29 20 +3.4 49 -8.7 21 +15.6 10 0.07 6
Minnesota B10 8-0 10-2 +15.3 21 23 +6.9 27 -7.4 30 +16.0 6 0.01 7

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Akron MAC 0-9 0-12 -37.3 130 130 -24.2 131 +11.8 126 -25.4 131 0.90 1
Rice CUSA 0-9 1-11 -14.9 117 117 -13.8 125 -0.5 69 -16.4 127 0.14 2
NewMexicoState Ind 0-8 2-10 -22.6 126 126 -9.4 115 +12.9 130 -17.4 128 0.02 3

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Clemson ACC 9-0 12-0 +30.7 5 3 +14.5 9 -16.5 7 +17.3 5 0.99 1
OhioState B10 8-0 12-0 +47.7 1 1 +27.0 1 -22.1 1 +24.1 1 0.99 2
LSU SEC 8-0 11-1 +28.7 6 6 +19.7 4 -8.8 20 +22.4 2 0.87 3
PennState B10 8-0 11-1 +35.2 2 2 +16.7 6 -18.4 3 +22.3 3 0.84 4
Utah P12 8-1 11-1 +22.6 12 9 +5.1 41 -16.9 5 +14.7 12 0.83 5
Alabama SEC 8-0 11-1 +32.1 3 4 +21.5 2 -11.9 11 +15.7 9 0.82 6
Oregon P12 8-1 11-1 +23.5 9 12 +11.8 12 -11.6 13 +15.4 11 0.77 7
Baylor B12 8-0 10-2 +13.4 29 20 +3.4 49 -8.7 21 +15.6 10 0.37 10
Oklahoma B12 7-1 10-2 +25.4 8 8 +20.3 3 -6.1 34 +13.1 19 0.37 11
Georgia SEC 7-1 10-2 +23.0 10 10 +7.0 26 -15.7 8 +14.2 14 0.25 15
Minnesota B10 8-0 10-2 +15.3 21 23 +6.9 27 -7.4 30 +16.0 6 0.10 19
WakeForest ACC 7-1 9-3 +9.1 40 44 +8.3 20 +0.0 73 +11.2 24 0.02 20

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2019

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
Cincinnati Amer 7-1 10-2 +15.8 19 15 +5.3 38 -9.1 18 +17.9 4 0.80 4
Baylor B12 8-0 10-2 +13.4 29 20 +3.4 49 -8.7 21 +15.6 10 0.73 10
SMU Amer 8-1 10-2 +14.0 25 25 +14.5 8 +1.3 81 +15.8 8 0.69 11
Minnesota B10 8-0 10-2 +15.3 21 23 +6.9 27 -7.4 30 +16.0 6 0.62 15
BoiseState MWC 7-1 10-2 +12.2 33 30 +6.8 29 -4.5 43 +13.8 16 0.62 16
WakeForest ACC 7-1 9-3 +9.1 40 44 +8.3 20 +0.0 73 +11.2 24 0.57 18
Memphis Amer 8-1 10-2 +14.0 26 31 +11.1 14 -2.2 59 +14.4 13 0.54 20
LSU SEC 8-0 11-1 +28.7 6 6 +19.7 4 -8.8 20 +22.4 2 0.27 35
AppalachianState Sun 7-1 10-2 +12.2 32 21 +7.6 23 -4.3 45 +10.6 25 0.24 37
NotreDame Ind 6-2 9-3 +16.1 18 16 +7.8 22 -7.9 25 +12.8 20 0.19 43

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Rutgers B10 2-7 2-10 -19.8 121 121 -12.8 123 +7.5 114 -8.3 113 10.22 4
Vanderbilt SEC 2-6 3-9 -10.8 114 112 -7.9 113 +2.4 91 -9.3 117 3.91 49
GeorgiaTech ACC 2-6 3-9 -9.0 108 107 -7.7 112 +1.3 80 -5.5 103 5.96 30
Arkansas SEC 2-7 3-9 -8.0 105 100 -3.5 95 +3.8 101 -9.5 118 7.41 20
Syracuse ACC 3-6 3-9 -6.8 101 87 -3.2 94 +3.3 96 -6.3 107 2.31 57
Arizona P12 4-5 4-8 -5.1 98 83 +2.1 60 +7.4 113 -2.9 90 4.17 45
NorthCarolinaState ACC 4-4 5-7 -5.0 96 86 -6.8 109 -1.7 64 -2.5 87 0.42 70
Kansas B12 3-6 3-9 -4.1 93 88 -1.5 82 +2.1 86 -5.7 105 6.81 23
Northwestern B10 1-7 3-9 -4.0 92 75 -9.5 116 -6.6 31 -8.6 114 7.41 19
Colorado P12 3-6 4-8 -3.7 89 74 -2.3 87 +1.1 78 -4.0 94 7.55 15

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
11 Sat 2019-11-02 #9 Oregon V #37 USC W 56 24
11 Sat 2019-11-02 #54 BYU V #66 UtahState W 42 14
11 Sat 2019-11-02 #11 Michigan V #71 Maryland W 38 7
11 Sat 2019-11-02 #10 Georgia N #15 Florida W 24 17
11 Sat 2019-11-02 #88 CentralMichigan H #108 NorthernIllinois W 48 10

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
10 Sat 2019-10-26 #1 OhioState H #4 Wisconsin W 38 7
3 Sat 2019-09-07 #1 OhioState H #19 Cincinnati W 42 0
4 Sat 2019-09-14 #1 OhioState V #30 Indiana W 51 10
6 Fri 2019-09-27 #2 PennState V #71 Maryland W 59 0
3 Sat 2019-09-07 #4 Wisconsin H #88 CentralMichigan W 61 0
5 Sat 2019-09-21 #1 OhioState H #90 MiamiOH W 76 5
8 Sat 2019-10-12 #4 Wisconsin H #22 MichiganState W 38 0
2 Fri 2019-08-30 #4 Wisconsin V #91 SouthFlorida W 49 0
10 Sat 2019-10-26 #11 Michigan H #18 NotreDame W 45 14
10 Sat 2019-10-26 #5 Clemson H #68 BostonCollege W 59 7

No comments, I promise I'll be better next week :)

THE PICKINGS

I went 27-20-0 against the spread last week, 251-246-3 (50.5%) on the season. I make no claims on the ability of these ratings to outperform Vegas, gambling is a sin anyway. On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 264.5 over 502 games, which would rank #20 (out of 63 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. Lines are taken from whatever site is most convenient at this time. It's not a rigorous process.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV VegPrj Pk vs Veg
Nov 9 #3 Alabama H #6 LSU 66% 5.8 6.5 LSU
Nov 9 #20 KansasState V #24 Texas 47% -1.2 -7.0 KansasState
Nov 9 #14 Iowa V #4 Wisconsin 16% -14.9 -9.5 Wisconsin
Nov 9 #29 Baylor V #39 TCU 54% 1.4 2.5 TCU
Nov 9 #17 IowaState V #8 Oklahoma 22% -11.4 -14.5 IowaState
Nov 9 #2 PennState V #21 Minnesota 87% 16.8 7.0 PennState
Nov 9 #48 SouthCarolina H #32 AppalachianState 41% -3.2 5.5 AppalachianState
Nov 9 #47 Duke H #18 NotreDame 33% -6.3 -8.0 Duke
Nov 9 #46 Louisville V #42 Miami 40% -3.5 -6.5 Louisville
Nov 9 #52 ArizonaState H #37 USC 42% -2.8 2.0 USC
Nov 9 #51 Kentucky H #50 Tennessee 54% 1.3 1.0 Kentucky
Nov 9 #68 BostonCollege H #53 FloridaState 49% -0.2 2.0 FloridaState
Nov 9 #59 California H #35 WashingtonState 34% -5.8 -7.5 California
Nov 9 #66 UtahState V #77 FresnoState 51% 0.4 -6.0 UtahState
Nov 8 #58 OregonState H #23 Washington 27% -8.7 -10.0 OregonState
Nov 9 #10 Georgia H #41 Missouri 86% 16.4 16.5 Missouri
Nov 9 #63 TexasTech V #81 WestVirginia 55% 1.7 2.5 WestVirginia
Nov 8 #16 CentralFlorida V #62 Tulsa 80% 12.6 17.0 Tulsa
Nov 9 #33 BoiseState H #55 Wyoming 77% 11.0 13.0 Wyoming
Nov 7 #90 SouthFlorida H #70 Temple 45% -1.9 -1.5 Temple
Nov 9 #92 Northwestern H #73 Purdue 46% -1.4 2.0 Purdue
Nov 9 #67 Stanford V #89 Colorado 57% 2.4 3.5 Colorado
Nov 5 #74 BallState V #64 WesternMichigan 37% -4.7 ~ ~
Nov 9 #40 WakeForest V #85 VirginiaTech 73% 8.9 2.5 WakeForest
Nov 9 #22 MichiganState H #65 Illinois 85% 15.2 14.5 MichiganState
Nov 9 #84 WesternKentucky V #105 Arkansas 58% 3.0 -1.5 WesternKentucky
Nov 9 #83 LouisianaTech H #97 NorthTexas 64% 5.2 5.5 NorthTexas
Nov 6 #95 MiamiOH V #80 Ohio 35% -5.6 -7.0 MiamiOH
Nov 9 #87 SouthernMississippi H #99 UAB 65% 5.5 5.0 SouthernMississippi
Nov 7 #94 CoastalCarolina H #28 LouisianaLafayette 15% -15.5 -14.0 LouisianaLafayette
Nov 9 #76 Hawaii H #100 SanJoseState 72% 8.3 7.5 Hawaii
Nov 9 #75 GeorgiaSouthern V #113 Troy 69% 7.2 3.0 GeorgiaSouthern
Nov 5 #111 KentState V #103 Toledo 37% -4.9 ~ ~
Nov 9 #79 GeorgiaState V #115 LouisianaMonroe 70% 7.6 2.5 GeorgiaState
Nov 9 #54 BYU H #104 Liberty 83% 14.0 17.0 Liberty
Nov 9 #5 Clemson V #96 NorthCarolinaState 97% 32.3 32.0 Clemson
Nov 9 #108 GeorgiaTech V #36 Virginia 8% -21.5 -16.0 Virginia
Nov 9 #112 FIU V #45 FloridaAtlantic 10% -20.1 -10.0 FloridaAtlantic
Nov 9 #110 EastCarolina V #25 SMU 6% -25.3 -21.5 SMU
Nov 9 #119 OldDominion H #124 UTSA 63% 4.8 4.0 OldDominion
Nov 9 #71 Maryland V #1 OhioState 0% -48.3 -43.5 OhioState
Nov 9 #15 Florida H #114 Vanderbilt 97% 31.4 26.0 Florida
Nov 9 #125 SouthAlabama V #116 TexasState 25% -9.7 -7.5 TexasState
Nov 9 #120 Nevada V #61 SanDiegoState 7% -23.2 -17.0 SanDiegoState
Nov 9 #31 AirForce V #122 NewMexico 96% 29.3 21.5 AirForce
Nov 9 #106 Charlotte V #129 UTEP 86% 16.5 13.0 Charlotte
Nov 9 #126 NewMexicoState V #56 Mississippi 4% -27.6 -28.5 NewMexicoState
Nov 9 #19 Cincinnati H #123 Connecticut 99% 38.3 35.0 Cincinnati
Nov 9 #86 Army H #131 Massachusetts 99% 40.2 34.5 Army

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV VegPrj Pk vs Veg
Nov 9 #14 Iowa V #4 Wisconsin 16% -14.9 -9.5 Wisconsin
Nov 9 #2 PennState V #21 Minnesota 87% 16.8 7.0 PennState
Nov 9 #92 Northwestern H #73 Purdue 46% -1.4 2.0 Purdue
Nov 9 #22 MichiganState H #65 Illinois 85% 15.2 14.5 MichiganState
Nov 9 #71 Maryland V #1 OhioState 0% -48.3 -43.5 OhioState

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