FanPost

Projecting the Big Ten Wrestling Championship Seedings

There's still one week of wrestling left before conference championships begin, but most Big Ten teams are wrestling non-conference opponents, and Iowa has clinched the regular season Big Ten Championship. I wanted to take this opportunity to go ahead and project the seedings in part how I suspect they will happen, but also how I think they should happen. To clarify, this is not my prediction on how the tournament will finish, but rather how it will be seeded (and in part is not even a prediction of that, as there are certain moments where my judgement ruled in absence of an obvious solution).

125:

1. Spencer Lee (Iowa)

2. Devin Schroder (Purdue)

3. Pat McKee (Minnesota)

4. Justin Cardani (Illinois)

5. Jack Medley (Michigan)

6. Michael DeAugustino (Northwestern)

7. Liam Cronin (Indiana)

8. Nic Aguilar (Rutgers)

9. Eric Barnett (Wisconsin)

10. Alex Thomsen (Nebraska)

11. Logan Griffin (Michigan State)

12. Malik Heinselman (Ohio State)

13. Brandon Cray (Maryland)

14. Brandon Meredith (Penn State)

Medley and DeAugustino were the first close call. They've split on the season, but Medley won most recently and at Northwestern. Aguilar and Barnett haven't wrestled and have done the same vs common opponents, but Aguilar's best win (DeAugustino) is better than Barnett's (Alex Thomsen). Griffin and Heinselman haven't wrestled, but Griffin's best win (Cardani) is better than Heinselman's (Cray).

133:

1. Seth Gross (Wisconsin)

2. Roman Bravo-Young (Penn State)

3. Austin Desanto (Iowa)

4. Travis Piotrowski (Illinois)

5. Sebastian Rivera (Northwestern)

6. Ridge Lovett (Nebraska)

7. Sammy Alvarez (Rutgers)

8. Garrett Pepple (Michigan State)

9. Jordan Decatur (Ohio State)

10. Cayden Rooks (Indiana)

11. Boo Dryden (Minnesota)

12. Travis Ford-Melton (Purdue)

13. Austin Assad (Michigan)

14. King Sandoval (Maryland)

Desanto beat Gross 6-2 in Carver on the first of December, but Gross got him back 6-5 at Midlands later that month. Gross beat RBY, and RBY won by injury default over Desanto (which the Big Ten counts as a win). Rivera is 1-2 on the year in the Big Ten, so him being seeded this high is mostly based on last year. Flowrestling actually put a projection out for this weight a few days ago and had Rivera below Lovett. He lost to Piotrowski by injury default, though he was winning at that point in the match. Alvarez is 1-1 vs Pepple, so Lovett jumps ahead of him. Decatur lost to Sandoval, so Pepple jumps him. There's a lot of confusion in the bottom half of this weight because of injuries and battles for starting spots, so this is just my best guess.

141:

1. Nick Lee (Penn State)

2. Luke Pletcher (Ohio State)

3. Max Murin (Iowa)

4. Tristan Moran (Wisconsin)

5. Mitch McKee (Minnesota)

6. Chad Red (Nebraska)

7. Parker Filius (Purdue)

8. Dylan Duncan (Illinois)

9. Cole Mattin (Michigan)

10. Alec McKenna (Northwestern)

11. JoJo Aragona (Rutgers)

12. Eddie Bolivar (Indiana)

13. Matt Santos (Michigan State)

14. Hunter Baxter (Maryland)

There are two close groups here. The 3 to 6 seeds are clustered. I'm giving the nod to Murin because I'm favoring McKee over Red next week. If that happens, Murin will be 2-1 against the group (having lost to Red), and Moran will be 2-1 against the group (losing to Murin). Heads-up advantage goes Murin over Moran, and then McKee over Red. If Red beats McKee, it should go Moran, Red, Murin. The second group is the 7 to 10 seeds. Filius beat Duncan but lost to McKenna, Duncan beat Mattin and McKenna, and Mattin beat McKenna. This isn't as clear cut as the other group because Mattin and Filius didn't wrestle, but this is assuming FIlius has the edge if they do.

149:

1. Sammy Sasso (Ohio State)

2. Pat Lugo (Iowa)

3. Brayton Lee (Minnesota)

4. Kanen Storr (Michigan)

5. Graham Rooks (Indiana)

6. Collin Purinton (Nebraska)

7. Gerard Angelo (Rutgers)

8. Jarod Verkleeren (Penn State)

9. Cole Martin (Wisconsin)

10. Yahya Thomas (Northwestern)

11. Griffin Parriott (Purdue)

12. Alex Hrisopoulos (Michigan State)

13. Mousa Jodeh (Illinois)

14. Ryan Garlitz (Maryland)

The 5-11 seeds are a real cluster here. I wouldn't be surprised if Angelo and Verkleeren switched, but neither has wrestled much this year, and really I wouldn't be surprised if Angelo dropped a few spots. But among this group, he's lost to Purinton and beaten Rooks.

157:

1. Ryan Deakin (Northwestern)

2. Kaleb Young (Iowa)

3. Kendall Coleman (Purdue)

4. Will Lewan (Michigan)

5. Ryan Thomas (Minnesota)

6. Jacob Tucker (Michigan State)

7. Peyton Robb (Nebraska)

8. Quinn Kinner (Ohio State)

9. Brady Berge (Penn State)

10. Eric Barone (Illinois)

11. Mike Van Brill (Rutgers)

12. Garrett Model (Wisconsin)

13. Jahi Jones (Maryland)

14. Fernie Silva (Indiana)

Both Deakin and Young are undefeated in the Big Ten, but Young has lost twice out of conference. Coleman lost by injury to Peyton Robb, but Robb has lost to a few people and Coleman beat Lewan, so he gets the edge here. Berge is 0-1 in the Big Ten, I'm not sure he's even allowed to be seeded but because we know he doesn't suck, I put him behind the guy he lost to.

165:

1. Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State)

2. Alex Marinelli (Iowa)

3. Evan Wick (Wisconsin)

4. Isaiah White (Nebraska)

5. Ethan Smith (Ohio State)

6. Shayne Oster (Northwestern)

7. Danny Braunagel (Illinois)

8. Bailee O'Reilly (Minnesota)

9. Drew Hughes (Michigan State)

10. Kyle Cochran (Maryland)

11. Brett Donner (Rutgers)

12. Tyler Meisinger (Michigan)

13. Tanny Webster (Purdue)

14. Dillon Hoey (Indiana)

This is fairly straightforward until the 10-12 seeds. Those three are 1-1 vs each other, so I gave the edge to Cochran, who won by more than he lost and who is ranked higher.

174:

1. Michael Kemerer (Iowa)

2. Mark Hall (Penn State)

3. Dylan Lydy (Purdue)

4. Mikey Labriola (Nebraska)

5. Kaleb Romero (Ohio State)

6. Devin Skatzka (Minnesota)

7. Joey Gunther (Illinois)

8. Layne Malczewski (Michigan State)

9. Jared Krattiger (Wisconsin)

10. Tyler Morland (Northwestern)

11. Jacob Covaciu (Indiana)

12. Philip Spadafora (Maryland)

13. Willie Scott (Rutgers)

14. Max Maylor (Michigan)

Romero and Skatzka have split two matches, but Romero won the more recent one. Twice I had to break three-way ties by discounting injuries. I think that's fair. If you don't, I don't care honestly.

184:

1. Aaron Brooks (Penn State)

2. Cameron Caffey (Michigan State)

3. Abe Assad (Iowa)

4. Rocky Jordan (Ohio State)

5. Taylor Venz (Nebraska)

6. Owen Webster (Minnesota)

7. Johnny Sebastian (Wisconsin)

8. Max Lyon (Purdue)

9. Zach Braunagel (Illinois)

10. Billy Janzer (Rutgers)

11. Jelani Embree (Michigan)

12. Jack Jessen (Northwestern)

13. Jakob Hinz (Indiana)

14. Kyle Jasenski (Maryland)

I did not want to do this weight. It's the Big Ten's weakest weight, and the least clear. This isn't at all aided by the fact that we still don't know who's going for Iowa at 184. If this is my top-to-bottom least accurate, I wouldn't be surprised.

197:

1. Kollin Moore (Ohio State)

2. Eric Schultz (Nebraska)

3. Jacob Warner (Iowa)

4. Shakur Rasheed (Penn State)

5. Christian Brunner (Purdue)

6. Jordan Pagano (Rutgers)

7. Lucas Davison (Northwestern)

8. Hunter Ritter (Minnesota)

9. Jackson Striggow (Michigan)

10. Nick May (Michigan State)

11. Jaron Smith (Maryland)

12. Matt Wroblewski (Illinois)

13. Taylor Watkins (Wisconsin)

14. Nick Willham (Indiana)

Man, this weight really drops off after 5 or so. Had to ignore some bad losses for the middle seeds to work, because everyone had at least one.

285:

1. Mason Parris (Michigan)

2. Gable Steveson (Minnesota)

3. Tony Cassioppi (Iowa)

4. Trent Hillger (Wisconsin)

5. Gary Traub (Ohio State)

6. Seth Nevills (Penn State)

7. Christian Lance (Nebraska)

8. Thomas Penola (Purdue)

9. Luke Luffman (Illinois)

10. Alex Esposito (Rutgers)

11. Christian Rebottaro (Michigan State)

12. Jake Kleimola (Indiana)

13. Jack Heyob (Northwestern)

14. Parker Robinson (Maryland)

Yeah. Sue me. I said before Iowa-Minnesota that Gable may be better off not wrestling, and as it turned out, he looked worse vs Tony than Parris, and because he ducked Parris, I have no choice but to compare vs the highest ranked common opponent. It won't matter, anyways, they'll both crush their side. Also, none of the lower tiered wrestlers have wrestled each other. It's amazing. There's no way to compare past Lance. So that was a total crapshoot.

By these projections, the teams would rank as follows:

Iowa (145.5), Penn State (110.5), Ohio State (90.5), Minnesota (80), Nebraska (78.5), Purdue (62), Michigan (51), Wisconsin (45.5), Illinois (37.5), Northwestern (36), Michigan State (31.5), Rutgers (22), Indiana (13), and finally Maryland (0). This is giving 19 points to 1st, 15 to 2nd, 12.5 to 3rd, 11.5 to 4th, 8 to 5th, 7.5 to 6th, 5 to 7th, 4.5 to 8th, and none to 9th-14th. I factored the points allotted for placement with the most common way to advance there. Obviously I'm not factoring in bonus points.

Feel free to argue, point out discrepancies, call me names, etc. in the comments. But also, I'm right and you're wrong.