FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 08

Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

Why did we skip last week? Because Iowa as a Top 5 team was just too much. We faked an injury to give us time to gather our thoughts.

Publishing this now to get it out of the way, I'll replace the placeholder text later (or not).

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 6-0 12-0 +38.3 1 1 +17.0 4 -21.2 1 +22.9 1 6.13 34
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +28.5 2 2 +16.3 6 -12.1 7 +20.0 3 11.02 4
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +27.7 3 5 +21.3 1 -7.4 30 +14.5 10 9.72 7
Iowa B10 6-0 11-1 +25.2 4 4 +7.7 24 -16.2 3 +21.5 2 7.30 18
Alabama SEC 5-1 10-2 +23.0 5 3 +17.1 2 -6.5 37 +12.9 12 5.28 45
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +21.8 6 7 +7.6 26 -13.5 4 +16.7 4 12.44 2
Cincinnati Amer 5-0 11-1 +20.6 7 12 +9.1 12 -10.8 10 +16.0 5 -1.86 92
Texas B12 4-2 8-4 +20.0 8 6 +17.1 3 -3.3 64 +12.8 13 6.90 25
Clemson ACC 3-2 8-4 +19.4 9 9 +0.6 79 -18.4 2 +9.8 22 5.73 38
Pittsburgh ACC 4-1 9-3 +19.2 10 8 +16.7 5 -3.6 62 +7.8 35 3.80 58
Florida SEC 4-2 8-4 +18.9 11 11 +6.6 32 -12.5 6 +9.2 24 5.32 44
Oklahoma B12 6-0 10-2 +18.6 12 10 +11.6 8 -6.5 38 +15.9 6 4.38 52
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 +17.7 13 23 +8.8 15 -8.5 18 +13.5 11 10.13 5
IowaState B12 3-2 8-4 +17.5 14 13 +8.4 18 -10.0 11 +5.9 51 8.09 14
Nebraska B10 3-4 6-6 +16.5 15 17 +5.3 39 -12.7 5 -0.4 80 9.65 8
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.3 16 16 +9.9 10 -5.6 49 +15.8 7 7.10 20
Auburn SEC 4-2 7-5 +16.2 17 14 +7.7 25 -8.9 17 +8.4 28 8.02 15
Arkansas SEC 4-2 8-4 +16.1 18 19 +7.6 28 -8.3 21 +11.6 17 7.02 22
CoastalCarolina Sun 6-0 11-1 +15.7 19 18 +9.7 11 -6.3 40 +9.0 25 -8.67 131
Liberty Ind 5-1 10-2 +15.5 20 27 +6.0 34 -9.8 13 +7.3 39 -3.32 111
Oregon P12 4-1 9-3 +15.2 21 15 +7.6 27 -7.5 28 +10.0 18 3.83 57
Tennessee SEC 4-2 7-5 +15.0 22 34 +10.2 9 -5.8 46 +4.1 59 4.82 51
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 23 21 +8.3 19 -6.0 43 +12.7 15 3.60 60
BoiseState MWC 3-3 8-4 +14.2 24 32 +6.5 33 -7.8 25 +8.4 27 3.40 62
ArizonaState P12 5-1 9-3 +14.0 25 24 +4.8 42 -8.9 16 +9.9 21 0.98 77
Baylor B12 5-1 8-4 +14.0 26 43 +5.7 35 -8.0 22 +9.9 19 3.47 61
Mississippi SEC 4-1 8-4 +13.7 27 22 +13.3 7 -0.7 86 +8.9 26 6.18 32
TexasAM SEC 4-2 8-4 +12.9 28 37 +1.0 71 -11.5 8 +8.4 29 3.37 63
Wisconsin B10 2-3 6-6 +12.2 29 42 +0.8 77 -11.4 9 +6.3 48 11.17 3
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +12.1 30 29 +8.2 20 -3.2 65 +12.7 14 -0.68 84
NorthCarolinaState ACC 4-1 8-4 +12.0 31 30 +1.9 66 -9.8 12 +8.0 33 5.48 41
Houston Amer 5-1 10-2 +11.8 32 36 +4.7 43 -7.2 32 +6.7 45 -7.65 129
TCU B12 3-2 7-5 +11.5 33 46 +7.1 30 -4.7 52 +5.8 52 5.86 36
Utah P12 3-2 7-5 +11.4 34 45 +5.6 37 -5.9 44 +6.9 42 4.25 53
OregonState P12 4-2 8-4 +11.2 35 20 +8.5 16 -3.1 67 +5.6 53 4.02 55
UCLA P12 4-2 8-4 +11.1 36 31 +9.0 13 -2.3 74 +6.4 47 5.01 50
AppalachianState Sun 4-1 9-3 +10.8 37 38 +4.1 44 -6.6 36 +7.1 41 -4.35 118
Kentucky SEC 6-0 9-3 +10.7 38 57 +1.4 69 -7.8 24 +14.7 9 2.60 68
KansasState B12 3-2 7-5 +10.5 39 41 +2.4 57 -7.8 26 +8.2 32 7.10 21
Rutgers B10 3-3 6-6 +10.3 40 39 +2.1 61 -8.5 19 +4.0 60 8.25 13
BYU Ind 5-1 9-3 +9.7 41 35 +1.1 70 -7.5 27 +12.1 16 1.70 72
NorthCarolina ACC 3-3 6-6 +9.6 42 26 +8.0 21 -2.7 70 +0.2 75 6.10 35
AirForce MWC 5-1 9-3 +9.2 43 54 +2.0 64 -6.8 34 +7.9 34 -0.72 85
Miami ACC 2-3 6-6 +9.0 44 50 +3.6 50 -5.8 47 +2.9 64 6.68 26
OklahomaState B12 5-0 8-4 +8.9 45 55 -0.8 87 -8.0 23 +15.5 8 6.34 31
BostonCollege ACC 4-1 8-4 +8.9 46 48 +3.0 53 -5.7 48 +6.8 43 2.12 69
MississippiState SEC 3-2 7-5 +8.8 47 44 +2.4 56 -6.2 42 +6.3 49 7.01 24
UAB CUSA 4-2 9-3 +8.7 48 68 +1.0 72 -7.2 31 +7.8 37 0.35 78
FresnoState MWC 4-2 8-4 +8.6 49 47 +7.1 29 -2.3 73 +1.2 72 -2.94 107
Minnesota B10 3-2 7-5 +8.3 50 53 +2.3 58 -6.2 41 +3.6 63 6.52 29
Indiana B10 2-3 5-7 +8.3 51 59 +2.2 60 -5.9 45 +6.2 50 13.49 1
LSU SEC 3-3 5-7 +8.2 52 28 +5.3 38 -3.1 66 +4.4 56 7.32 17
Nevada MWC 4-1 9-3 +7.9 53 58 +5.6 36 -2.0 76 +7.2 40 -1.39 90
Syracuse ACC 3-3 5-7 +7.7 54 69 +4.0 45 -4.6 54 -0.7 82 6.65 27
Purdue B10 3-2 5-7 +7.7 55 51 -1.1 90 -9.0 15 +2.5 66 9.21 10
VirginiaTech ACC 3-2 6-6 +7.4 56 49 -0.8 86 -8.3 20 +2.6 65 6.14 33
WesternMichigan MAC 4-2 8-4 +7.4 57 25 +2.4 55 -4.1 59 +9.6 23 1.58 73
USC P12 3-3 6-6 +7.0 58 33 +8.0 22 +0.5 94 +1.9 70 5.10 48
Virginia ACC 4-2 7-5 +7.0 59 61 +6.9 31 -0.1 88 +5.0 55 5.67 39
CentralFlorida Amer 3-2 8-4 +6.8 60 56 +7.7 23 +0.4 93 +2.0 68 -2.80 106
WestVirginia B12 2-4 5-7 +6.7 61 40 +0.4 80 -7.1 33 -0.8 83 5.48 42
Washington P12 2-3 6-6 +6.7 62 60 -2.4 94 -9.7 14 -0.3 79 4.00 56
Louisville ACC 3-3 6-6 +6.4 63 66 +3.8 48 -3.0 68 +1.5 71 6.48 30
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-3 5-7 +6.4 64 70 +2.3 59 -4.7 53 +0.4 74 9.91 6
SanDiegoState MWC 5-0 9-3 +6.1 65 72 -1.3 91 -6.7 35 +7.8 36 -3.16 108
LouisianaLafayette Sun 4-1 9-3 +6.0 66 63 +0.9 73 -4.3 58 +8.3 30 -4.29 117
SouthCarolina SEC 3-3 6-6 +5.6 67 65 -1.0 89 -6.4 39 +4.3 57 7.01 23
Toledo MAC 3-3 8-4 +5.5 68 64 -1.5 93 -7.5 29 +0.1 76 -6.03 126
Army Ind 4-1 8-4 +5.2 69 75 +0.6 78 -4.5 56 +3.7 62 -2.37 99
Stanford P12 3-3 6-6 +4.8 70 62 -0.3 85 -4.6 55 +5.6 54 7.19 19
UTSA CUSA 6-0 10-2 +4.6 71 76 +1.9 67 -1.6 79 +9.9 20 -7.86 130
Maryland B10 4-2 5-7 +4.5 72 52 +3.0 52 -0.8 85 +7.4 38 9.48 9
BallState MAC 3-3 7-5 +4.3 73 85 +2.0 63 -1.7 78 +6.4 46 1.42 74
Wyoming MWC 4-1 8-4 +3.7 74 77 +0.8 75 -2.1 75 +6.7 44 -2.45 100
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 3-3 7-5 +3.1 75 73 +0.0 82 -3.6 63 -1.3 85 -2.77 104
Marshall CUSA 3-3 7-5 +3.1 76 74 +1.7 68 -2.4 72 -4.4 102 -4.56 120
NorthernIllinois MAC 4-2 8-4 +2.7 77 84 +2.7 54 +1.1 97 +8.2 31 1.39 76
Buffalo MAC 2-4 6-6 +2.6 78 71 +3.9 47 -0.1 87 -6.2 110 -3.86 113
FloridaState ACC 2-4 4-8 +2.4 79 91 +2.0 62 -1.0 83 -2.1 89 7.83 16
TexasTech B12 4-2 6-6 +2.2 80 67 +5.2 40 +3.4 109 +4.0 61 5.17 47
UtahState MWC 3-2 8-4 +1.2 81 82 +3.5 51 +2.8 105 +4.2 58 -3.22 109
California P12 1-4 4-8 +1.2 82 83 -0.0 83 -2.6 71 -7.9 117 3.64 59
Missouri SEC 3-3 5-7 +1.2 83 81 +8.8 14 +7.4 120 +0.1 77 5.35 43
LouisianaTech CUSA 2-3 6-6 +1.1 84 79 +4.0 46 +2.4 104 -1.6 86 -2.14 96
WashingtonState P12 3-3 5-7 +0.9 85 87 -3.7 98 -4.9 51 -1.2 84 4.25 54
WesternKentucky CUSA 1-4 5-7 +0.4 86 88 +8.4 17 +6.9 119 -6.5 113 -2.19 97
Memphis Amer 3-3 6-6 -0.3 87 78 +4.9 41 +5.2 112 -0.5 81 -0.67 83
EasternMichigan MAC 4-2 7-5 -0.5 88 92 -0.9 88 +0.0 90 +2.1 67 -4.76 121
MiamiOH MAC 2-4 6-6 -0.5 89 89 -3.9 100 -3.7 61 -2.5 94 -4.37 119
EastCarolina Amer 3-3 6-6 -0.7 90 90 -0.2 84 +0.2 91 -2.5 92 0.10 80
ColoradoState MWC 2-3 5-7 -0.8 91 95 -2.5 95 -1.9 77 -2.1 88 1.41 75
Duke ACC 3-3 4-8 -1.8 92 94 +0.8 76 +2.4 103 -2.6 95 3.34 64
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -1.9 93 80 -6.1 112 -4.9 50 -4.9 105 9.14 11
Troy Sun 3-3 6-6 -2.5 94 86 -6.5 114 -4.3 57 -3.8 98 -4.01 115
MiddleTennessee CUSA 2-4 6-6 -2.6 95 93 +0.8 74 +3.0 107 -4.2 101 -5.22 123
KentState MAC 3-3 6-6 -3.1 96 101 +0.3 81 +3.8 110 +0.8 73 -3.84 112
Northwestern B10 2-3 3-9 -3.5 97 102 -4.2 101 -1.2 81 -4.7 104 6.60 28
Tulsa Amer 2-4 5-7 -3.5 98 103 -4.3 102 -0.8 84 -2.5 93 2.04 71
Colorado P12 1-4 3-9 -4.5 99 104 -7.9 119 -4.1 60 -6.3 111 5.58 40
SouthAlabama Sun 3-2 6-6 -4.7 100 97 -6.1 110 -1.6 80 -3.7 97 -5.15 122
Hawaii MWC 3-3 6-7 -4.8 101 100 -2.7 96 +2.3 102 -2.3 90 -2.68 101
Charlotte CUSA 4-2 7-5 -5.0 102 105 -2.9 97 +2.2 101 -2.3 91 -5.73 124
Tulane Amer 1-5 3-9 -5.2 103 99 +3.7 49 +8.2 121 -7.5 116 2.10 70
Navy Amer 1-4 3-9 -5.3 104 106 -6.0 109 -1.1 82 -5.0 106 5.85 37
OldDominion CUSA 1-5 4-8 -6.0 105 111 -4.5 105 +0.2 92 -11.2 124 -1.96 93
CentralMichigan MAC 3-3 5-7 -6.1 106 98 -3.7 99 +2.1 100 -5.4 107 -2.72 102
GeorgiaState Sun 2-4 5-7 -6.7 107 110 -1.5 92 +5.5 114 -2.7 96 0.15 79
SanJoseState MWC 3-3 5-7 -7.2 108 96 -10.2 125 -2.7 69 -2.0 87 -1.98 94
UTEP CUSA 5-1 7-5 -7.4 109 113 -7.4 117 +0.9 96 +2.0 69 -6.19 127
Arizona P12 0-5 1-11 -7.7 110 107 -6.3 113 +0.6 95 -9.0 120 5.03 49
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 2-4 4-8 -9.1 111 108 -4.3 103 +4.7 111 -7.0 115 -0.52 82
NorthTexas CUSA 1-4 4-8 -10.0 112 112 -6.6 115 +3.0 106 -8.2 118 -2.75 103
Temple Amer 3-3 5-7 -10.3 113 109 -5.5 107 +5.9 115 -0.1 78 -1.30 89
UNLV MWC 0-5 2-10 -10.5 114 116 -8.0 120 +1.7 98 -10.7 122 2.83 65
SouthFlorida Amer 1-4 3-9 -10.6 115 117 -4.8 106 +6.2 117 -4.5 103 2.78 66
TexasState Sun 2-3 4-8 -12.8 116 121 -6.6 116 +6.5 118 -6.4 112 -5.99 125
NewMexico MWC 2-4 3-9 -13.0 117 120 -11.4 128 +1.8 99 -5.9 108 -1.08 88
BowlingGreen MAC 2-4 3-9 -13.5 118 115 -13.0 130 -0.1 89 -9.5 121 -3.27 110
ArkansasState Sun 1-5 3-9 -13.9 119 118 +2.0 65 +15.7 131 -11.9 125 -2.30 98
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-5 3-9 -14.1 120 114 -10.1 124 +3.3 108 -12.4 127 -3.97 114
Kansas B12 1-4 2-10 -14.3 121 125 -5.8 108 +9.0 122 -6.7 114 9.02 12
Rice CUSA 2-3 3-9 -14.9 122 123 -10.4 126 +5.2 113 -3.9 99 -0.90 86
FIU CUSA 1-5 3-9 -15.3 123 119 -4.3 104 +10.4 125 -14.6 130 -6.96 128
Ohio MAC 1-5 2-10 -16.2 124 124 -9.7 122 +5.9 116 -13.2 128 -4.29 116
LouisianaMonroe Sun 2-3 3-9 -18.4 125 122 -10.0 123 +9.7 124 -4.0 100 -1.06 87
Akron MAC 2-4 3-9 -18.6 126 128 -7.7 118 +11.6 127 -8.3 119 -0.39 81
Vanderbilt SEC 2-4 2-10 -19.2 127 126 -10.7 127 +9.4 123 -6.0 109 5.20 46
Massachusetts Ind 1-5 3-9 -19.3 128 127 -8.6 121 +10.9 126 -11.1 123 -1.70 91
NewMexicoState Ind 1-6 2-10 -20.9 129 129 -6.1 111 +15.0 130 -14.2 129 -2.79 105
FCS Z_FCS 10-96 11-106 -22.9 130 130 -11.5 129 +11.9 128 -12.0 126 2.69 67
Connecticut Ind 0-7 1-11 -27.5 131 131 -13.8 131 +13.2 129 -20.2 131 -2.13 95

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +28.5 2 2 +16.3 6 -12.1 7 +20.0 3 11.02 4
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +27.7 3 5 +21.3 1 -7.4 30 +14.5 10 9.72 7
Iowa B10 6-0 11-1 +25.2 4 4 +7.7 24 -16.2 3 +21.5 2 7.30 18
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +21.8 6 7 +7.6 26 -13.5 4 +16.7 4 12.44 2
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 +17.7 13 23 +8.8 15 -8.5 18 +13.5 11 10.13 5
Nebraska B10 3-4 6-6 +16.5 15 17 +5.3 39 -12.7 5 -0.4 80 9.65 8
Wisconsin B10 2-3 6-6 +12.2 29 42 +0.8 77 -11.4 9 +6.3 48 11.17 3
Rutgers B10 3-3 6-6 +10.3 40 39 +2.1 61 -8.5 19 +4.0 60 8.25 13
Minnesota B10 3-2 7-5 +8.3 50 53 +2.3 58 -6.2 41 +3.6 63 6.52 29
Indiana B10 2-3 5-7 +8.3 51 59 +2.2 60 -5.9 45 +6.2 50 13.49 1
Purdue B10 3-2 5-7 +7.7 55 51 -1.1 90 -9.0 15 +2.5 66 9.21 10
Maryland B10 4-2 5-7 +4.5 72 52 +3.0 52 -0.8 85 +7.4 38 9.48 9
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -1.9 93 80 -6.1 112 -4.9 50 -4.9 105 9.14 11
Northwestern B10 2-3 3-9 -3.5 97 102 -4.2 101 -1.2 81 -4.7 104 6.60 28

[insert comments as appropriate]

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 6-0 12-0 +38.3 1 1 +17.0 4 -21.2 1 +22.9 1 0.74 1
Cincinnati Amer 5-0 11-1 +20.6 7 12 +9.1 12 -10.8 10 +16.0 5 0.46 2
CoastalCarolina Sun 6-0 11-1 +15.7 19 18 +9.7 11 -6.3 40 +9.0 25 0.38 3
Iowa B10 6-0 11-1 +25.2 4 4 +7.7 24 -16.2 3 +21.5 2 0.37 4
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +28.5 2 2 +16.3 6 -12.1 7 +20.0 3 0.21 5
Oklahoma B12 6-0 10-2 +18.6 12 10 +11.6 8 -6.5 38 +15.9 6 0.15 6
UTSA CUSA 6-0 10-2 +4.6 71 76 +1.9 67 -1.6 79 +9.9 20 0.12 7
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +12.1 30 29 +8.2 20 -3.2 65 +12.7 14 0.04 8
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 23 21 +8.3 19 -6.0 43 +12.7 15 0.04 9
SanDiegoState MWC 5-0 9-3 +6.1 65 72 -1.3 91 -6.7 35 +7.8 36 0.01 10
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 +17.7 13 23 +8.8 15 -8.5 18 +13.5 11 0.01 11
Kentucky SEC 6-0 9-3 +10.7 38 57 +1.4 69 -7.8 24 +14.7 9 0.00 12
OklahomaState B12 5-0 8-4 +8.9 45 55 -0.8 87 -8.0 23 +15.5 8 0.00 13

[insert comments as appropriate]

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Connecticut Ind 0-7 1-11 -27.5 131 131 -13.8 131 +13.2 129 -20.2 131 0.50 1 UConn
Arizona P12 0-5 1-11 -7.7 110 107 -6.3 113 +0.6 95 -9.0 120 0.18 2 Ariz
UNLV MWC 0-5 2-10 -10.5 114 116 -8.0 120 +1.7 98 -10.7 122 0.08 3 UNLV

[insert comments as appropriate]

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 6-0 12-0 +38.3 1 1 +17.0 4 -21.2 1 +22.9 1 0.97 1
Iowa B10 6-0 11-1 +25.2 4 4 +7.7 24 -16.2 3 +21.5 2 0.80 4
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +28.5 2 2 +16.3 6 -12.1 7 +20.0 3 0.63 5
Oklahoma B12 6-0 10-2 +18.6 12 10 +11.6 8 -6.5 38 +15.9 6 0.50 6
Liberty Ind 5-1 10-2 +15.5 20 27 +6.0 34 -9.8 13 +7.3 39 0.27 10
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 23 21 +8.3 19 -6.0 43 +12.7 15 0.24 11
Alabama SEC 5-1 10-2 +23.0 5 3 +17.1 2 -6.5 37 +12.9 12 0.23 12
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.3 16 16 +9.9 10 -5.6 49 +15.8 7 0.21 13
Pittsburgh ACC 4-1 9-3 +19.2 10 8 +16.7 5 -3.6 62 +7.8 35 0.14 14
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +27.7 3 5 +21.3 1 -7.4 30 +14.5 10 0.13 16
Kentucky SEC 6-0 9-3 +10.7 38 57 +1.4 69 -7.8 24 +14.7 9 0.12 17
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 +17.7 13 23 +8.8 15 -8.5 18 +13.5 11 0.10 19
ArizonaState P12 5-1 9-3 +14.0 25 24 +4.8 42 -8.9 16 +9.9 21 0.09 20
Oregon P12 4-1 9-3 +15.2 21 15 +7.6 27 -7.5 28 +10.0 18 0.09 21
BYU Ind 5-1 9-3 +9.7 41 35 +1.1 70 -7.5 27 +12.1 16 0.06 22
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +21.8 6 7 +7.6 26 -13.5 4 +16.7 4 0.04 24
Baylor B12 5-1 8-4 +14.0 26 43 +5.7 35 -8.0 22 +9.9 19 0.03 27
OklahomaState B12 5-0 8-4 +8.9 45 55 -0.8 87 -8.0 23 +15.5 8 0.03 28
NorthCarolinaState ACC 4-1 8-4 +12.0 31 30 +1.9 66 -9.8 12 +8.0 33 0.02 29
Mississippi SEC 4-1 8-4 +13.7 27 22 +13.3 7 -0.7 86 +8.9 26 0.02 30
BostonCollege ACC 4-1 8-4 +8.9 46 48 +3.0 53 -5.7 48 +6.8 43 0.01 32
Army Ind 4-1 8-4 +5.2 69 75 +0.6 78 -4.5 56 +3.7 62 0.00 33

[insert comments as appropriate]

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
OklahomaState B12 5-0 8-4 +8.9 45 55 -0.8 87 -8.0 23 +15.5 8 1.26 1
Kentucky SEC 6-0 9-3 +10.7 38 57 +1.4 69 -7.8 24 +14.7 9 0.99 3
UTSA CUSA 6-0 10-2 +4.6 71 76 +1.9 67 -1.6 79 +9.9 20 0.90 7
BYU Ind 5-1 9-3 +9.7 41 35 +1.1 70 -7.5 27 +12.1 16 0.74 10
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.3 16 16 +9.9 10 -5.6 49 +15.8 7 0.64 11
WesternMichigan MAC 4-2 8-4 +7.4 57 25 +2.4 55 -4.1 59 +9.6 23 0.63 12
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +12.1 30 29 +8.2 20 -3.2 65 +12.7 14 0.60 14
Iowa B10 6-0 11-1 +25.2 4 4 +7.7 24 -16.2 3 +21.5 2 0.59 15
Oklahoma B12 6-0 10-2 +18.6 12 10 +11.6 8 -6.5 38 +15.9 6 0.44 23
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 23 21 +8.3 19 -6.0 43 +12.7 15 0.36 29

[insert comments as appropriate]

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-4 2-10 -19.2 127 126 -10.7 127 +9.4 123 -6.0 109 5.20 46
Kansas B12 1-4 2-10 -14.3 121 125 -5.8 108 +9.0 122 -6.7 114 9.02 12
Arizona P12 0-5 1-11 -7.7 110 107 -6.3 113 +0.6 95 -9.0 120 5.03 49
Colorado P12 1-4 3-9 -4.5 99 104 -7.9 119 -4.1 60 -6.3 111 5.58 40
Northwestern B10 2-3 3-9 -3.5 97 102 -4.2 101 -1.2 81 -4.7 104 6.60 28
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -1.9 93 80 -6.1 112 -4.9 50 -4.9 105 9.14 11
Duke ACC 3-3 4-8 -1.8 92 94 +0.8 76 +2.4 103 -2.6 95 3.34 64

[insert comments as appropriate]

BONUS: #UConnWatch

#13732 out of 13866 total FBS teams (1.0%-ile) since 1873

#7402 out of 7454 total teams (0.7%-ile) since 1960

#4910 out of 4939 total teams (0.6%-ile) since 1980

#2692 out of 2708 total teams (0.6%-ile) since 2000

#1513 out of 1523 total teams (0.7%-ile) since 2010

#902 out of 906 total teams (0.4%-ile) since 2015

We're back in business! If you are curious, the 4 teams since 2015 rating out worst (according to my spreadsheets at least) follow. Rankings below include generic FCS placeholder teams (14015 teams total):

#13881 - 2021 Connecticut

#13883 - 2020 Bowling Green (0-5)

#13896 - 2017 Ball State (2-10)

#14002 - 2019 Akron (0-12)

#14013 - 2019 Massachusetts (1-11)

It is unlikely we are going to catch 2019 Massachusetts, by the way. You have to go back to 1939 Chicago (the last year Chicago played DI football) to find a worst team.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last (two) week(s):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #18 Arkansas W 37 0
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #17 Auburn W 34 10
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #3 OhioState V #40 Rutgers W 52 13
6 Fri 2021-10-01 #4 Iowa V #72 Maryland W 51 14
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #3 OhioState H #72 Maryland W 66 17
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #20 Liberty V #48 UAB W 36 12
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #5 Alabama H #27 Mississippi W 42 21
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #22 Tennessee V #83 Missouri W 62 24
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #25 ArizonaState V #36 UCLA W 42 23
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #2 Michigan V #29 Wisconsin W 38 17

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #48 UAB W 56 7
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #18 Arkansas W 37 0
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #17 Auburn W 34 10
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #3 OhioState V #40 Rutgers W 52 13
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #2 Michigan H #77 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #21 Oregon V #3 OhioState W 35 28
6 Fri 2021-10-01 #4 Iowa V #72 Maryland W 51 14
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #18 Arkansas H #8 Texas W 40 21
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #1 Georgia V #127 Vanderbilt W 62 0
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #11 Florida H #22 Tennessee W 38 14

[insert comments as appropriate]

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 279.3 over 317 games, which would rank #23 (out of 49 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 16 #18 Arkansas H #17 Auburn 56% 2.3
Oct 16 #25 ArizonaState V #34 Utah 50% 0.1
Oct 16 #22 Tennessee H #27 Mississippi 60% 3.6
Oct 16 #46 BostonCollege H #31 NorthCarolinaState 48% -0.7
Oct 16 #14 IowaState V #39 KansasState 62% 4.5
Oct 16 #62 Washington H #36 UCLA 45% -1.9
Oct 16 #50 Minnesota H #15 Nebraska 35% -5.6
Oct 16 #44 Miami V #42 NorthCarolina 42% -3.0
Oct 16 #51 Indiana H #13 MichiganState 32% -6.8
Oct 12 #37 AppalachianState V #66 LouisianaLafayette 57% 2.3
Oct 16 #12 Oklahoma H #33 TCU 74% 9.4
Oct 16 #11 Florida V #52 LSU 71% 8.1
Oct 16 #26 Baylor H #41 BYU 68% 6.5
Oct 15 #9 Clemson V #54 Syracuse 74% 9.2
Oct 16 #43 AirForce V #24 BoiseState 31% -7.3
Oct 16 #5 Alabama V #47 MississippiState 79% 11.6
Oct 16 #10 Pittsburgh V #56 VirginiaTech 74% 9.2
Oct 16 #74 Wyoming H #49 FresnoState 43% -2.5
Oct 16 #70 Stanford V #85 WashingtonState 54% 1.4
Oct 16 #45 OklahomaState V #8 Texas 18% -13.3
Oct 16 #73 BallState V #88 EasternMichigan 57% 2.4
Oct 16 #29 Wisconsin H #69 Army 74% 9.2
Oct 16 #83 Missouri H #28 TexasAM 27% -9.1
Oct 16 #60 CentralFlorida V #7 Cincinnati 14% -15.9
Oct 16 #4 Iowa H #55 Purdue 90% 19.6
Oct 16 #1 Georgia H #38 Kentucky 96% 29.5
Oct 16 #105 OldDominion H #86 WesternKentucky 39% -3.9
Oct 16 #40 Rutgers V #97 Northwestern 78% 11.1
Oct 15 #82 California V #21 Oregon 14% -16.1
Oct 16 #92 Duke V #59 Virginia 23% -11.0
Oct 16 #84 LouisianaTech V #109 UTEP 66% 6.0
Oct 16 #106 CentralMichigan H #68 Toledo 27% -9.0
Oct 14 #87 Memphis H #104 Navy 69% 7.2
Oct 16 #96 KentState V #57 WesternMichigan 20% -12.6
Oct 15 #65 SanDiegoState V #108 SanJoseState 77% 10.7
Oct 16 #110 Arizona V #99 Colorado 35% -5.5
Oct 16 #115 SouthFlorida H #98 Tulsa 37% -4.6
Oct 16 #101 Hawaii V #53 Nevada 16% -14.9
Oct 14 #111 GeorgiaSouthern V #100 SouthAlabama 32% -6.7
Oct 16 #81 UtahState V #114 UNLV 74% 9.2
Oct 15 #76 Marshall V #112 NorthTexas 76% 10.4
Oct 16 #94 Troy V #116 TexasState 70% 7.8
Oct 16 #91 ColoradoState V #117 NewMexico 74% 9.6
Oct 16 #121 Kansas H #80 TexasTech 18% -13.8
Oct 16 #120 SouthernMississippi H #48 UAB 10% -20.0
Oct 16 #118 BowlingGreen V #77 NorthernIllinois 11% -18.3
Oct 16 #122 Rice V #71 UTSA 8% -21.5
Oct 16 #131 Connecticut H Yale 44% -2.1
Oct 16 #78 Buffalo H #124 Ohio 91% 20.8
Oct 16 #126 Akron V #89 MiamiOH 10% -20.1
Oct 16 #20 Liberty V #125 LouisianaMonroe 97% 30.9
Oct 16 #67 SouthCarolina H #127 Vanderbilt 95% 26.7

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 16 #50 Minnesota H #15 Nebraska 35% -5.6
Oct 16 #51 Indiana H #13 MichiganState 32% -6.8
Oct 16 #29 Wisconsin H #69 Army 74% 9.2
Oct 16 #4 Iowa H #55 Purdue 90% 19.6
Oct 16 #40 Rutgers V #97 Northwestern 78% 11.1

[insert comments as appropriate]