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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 09

By on Oct 21, 2021, 11:37pm CDT 5

DEVON RAVINE via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Ideally, I'd have these come out on Wednesday every week. However, life gets in the way. I know I took last year off (#CovidCasualty), but I may have to retire this as a regular hobby for a good few years come 2022. At least until we ship the kids off to military school.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +38.7 1 1 +17.8 4 -20.7 1 +25.3 1 5.26 35
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +27.2 2 2 +15.6 5 -11.4 8 +19.1 2 10.25 4
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +26.5 3 3 +20.8 1 -6.7 30 +13.8 11 9.43 8
Alabama SEC 6-1 10-2 +24.6 4 5 +18.3 2 -7.1 27 +12.7 13 4.45 43
Cincinnati Amer 6-0 12-0 +23.5 5 7 +12.1 10 -11.1 9 +16.6 5 -3.14 100
Pittsburgh ACC 5-1 10-2 +22.4 6 10 +17.8 3 -5.7 40 +10.1 21 3.28 54
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +21.5 7 4 +5.3 38 -15.0 3 +18.0 4 7.49 14
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +20.9 8 6 +7.7 25 -12.5 5 +16.3 6 11.93 2
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +19.1 9 13 +8.4 21 -10.2 13 +15.4 8 10.13 5
Auburn SEC 5-2 8-4 +18.4 10 17 +8.8 16 -9.6 16 +11.3 16 7.42 15
Oklahoma B12 7-0 11-1 +17.9 11 12 +12.4 8 -5.1 47 +15.3 9 3.45 52
IowaState B12 4-2 8-4 +17.4 12 14 +8.6 18 -9.4 17 +7.2 37 6.95 20
Florida SEC 4-3 8-4 +17.2 13 11 +8.6 19 -9.6 15 +5.0 53 4.86 41
Clemson ACC 4-2 8-4 +17.2 14 9 -1.8 88 -18.2 2 +10.0 23 5.70 31
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.5 15 16 +11.0 11 -4.7 50 +15.7 7 7.18 18
Texas B12 4-3 7-5 +16.2 16 8 +15.1 6 -1.3 81 +10.3 19 5.79 30
Mississippi SEC 5-1 9-3 +15.8 17 27 +13.4 7 -2.4 68 +11.1 17 5.66 32
Baylor B12 6-1 9-3 +15.2 18 26 +7.7 24 -6.8 29 +13.3 12 2.15 63
Tennessee SEC 4-3 7-5 +14.8 19 22 +10.0 12 -6.2 35 +1.7 64 5.15 37
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 20 23 +8.8 17 -5.6 41 +11.7 14 2.88 56
CoastalCarolina Sun 6-0 11-1 +14.6 21 19 +9.3 14 -5.4 44 +8.9 26 -10.12 131
Nebraska B10 3-5 5-7 +14.5 22 15 +5.2 39 -10.8 11 -1.3 82 9.67 6
NorthCarolinaState ACC 5-1 9-3 +14.2 23 31 +2.9 55 -11.0 10 +9.4 24 3.98 48
Purdue B10 4-2 7-5 +13.5 24 55 +0.3 76 -12.8 4 +8.7 30 9.34 9
Arkansas SEC 4-3 7-5 +13.2 25 18 +7.1 29 -6.0 37 +8.9 27 5.66 33
Oregon P12 5-1 9-3 +12.5 26 21 +5.9 35 -6.6 33 +8.3 32 2.81 57
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +12.4 27 38 +1.8 61 -9.2 19 +14.8 10 1.94 66
BoiseState MWC 3-4 7-5 +12.2 28 24 +5.1 40 -7.3 26 +6.0 44 2.53 58
TexasAM SEC 5-2 8-4 +11.9 29 28 -0.8 81 -12.4 6 +7.4 36 2.14 64
Utah P12 4-2 8-4 +11.8 30 34 +6.4 32 -5.2 46 +8.7 29 2.51 59
Wisconsin B10 3-3 6-6 +11.5 31 29 -0.7 80 -11.8 7 +7.8 34 11.03 3
Liberty Ind 5-2 9-3 +11.2 32 20 +4.4 44 -7.4 24 +3.2 61 -3.53 104
OregonState P12 4-2 8-4 +11.0 33 35 +8.9 15 -2.4 69 +5.6 48 3.38 53
Virginia ACC 5-2 8-4 +10.9 34 59 +7.6 26 -3.6 59 +5.8 45 5.08 38
Minnesota B10 4-2 8-4 +10.8 35 50 +4.5 43 -6.6 34 +5.3 50 6.53 22
ArizonaState P12 5-2 8-4 +10.7 36 25 +3.9 48 -6.9 28 +6.1 43 -0.27 77
FresnoState MWC 5-2 9-3 +10.7 37 49 +6.2 33 -4.9 49 +4.5 55 -4.00 107
OklahomaState B12 6-0 9-3 +10.6 38 45 -1.2 84 -9.7 14 +18.2 3 5.06 39
UCLA P12 5-2 8-4 +10.4 39 36 +8.4 20 -2.1 70 +6.9 38 3.62 50
AirForce MWC 6-1 9-3 +10.2 40 43 +2.8 56 -6.7 31 +10.2 20 -1.80 86
Houston Amer 5-1 10-2 +10.1 41 32 +3.9 47 -6.1 36 +6.4 42 -9.00 130
KansasState B12 3-3 7-5 +9.8 42 39 +2.0 58 -7.8 22 +5.6 47 6.04 27
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +9.5 43 30 +7.0 30 -1.9 73 +10.0 22 -2.43 92
WesternMichigan MAC 5-2 9-3 +9.3 44 57 +5.9 34 -2.6 67 +10.9 18 0.43 73
UAB CUSA 5-2 9-3 +9.1 45 48 +0.6 73 -8.2 20 +6.7 39 -1.13 79
TCU B12 3-3 6-6 +8.4 46 33 +7.2 28 -1.5 78 +3.8 60 4.88 40
Indiana B10 2-4 4-8 +8.4 47 51 +1.2 65 -7.3 25 +4.1 58 13.91 1
LSU SEC 4-3 6-6 +8.4 48 52 +8.3 22 -0.1 87 +5.8 46 7.41 16
NorthCarolina ACC 4-3 6-6 +8.3 49 42 +9.9 13 +0.8 88 +0.9 68 6.18 25
UTSA CUSA 7-0 11-1 +8.2 50 71 +3.3 53 -3.9 57 +11.3 15 -8.78 129
LouisianaLafayette Sun 5-1 10-2 +8.0 51 66 +2.0 59 -5.4 43 +8.4 31 -5.73 122
Miami ACC 2-4 5-7 +7.8 52 44 +5.4 37 -3.5 63 -0.8 78 6.58 21
Syracuse ACC 3-4 5-7 +7.5 53 54 +4.5 42 -4.4 54 -4.1 98 5.82 29
Nevada MWC 5-1 9-3 +7.4 54 53 +5.4 36 -1.7 76 +6.6 40 -1.78 85
Rutgers B10 3-4 5-7 +7.3 55 40 -0.3 79 -8.1 21 +0.5 72 8.02 12
BYU Ind 5-2 8-4 +6.8 56 41 +0.3 77 -5.6 42 +9.2 25 0.51 72
USC P12 3-3 6-6 +6.7 57 58 +8.3 23 +1.0 91 +1.3 66 3.73 49
Louisville ACC 3-3 6-6 +6.5 58 63 +4.2 45 -2.8 65 +1.5 65 6.00 28
WestVirginia B12 2-4 5-7 +6.4 59 61 +0.5 74 -6.6 32 -0.7 77 4.40 44
AppalachianState Sun 4-2 9-3 +6.3 60 37 +1.9 60 -4.3 55 +4.2 57 -4.88 116
Army Ind 4-2 8-4 +6.3 61 69 +1.2 66 -5.2 45 +3.1 62 -2.52 94
VirginiaTech ACC 3-3 6-6 +6.1 62 56 -4.2 99 -10.6 12 +0.7 70 5.58 34
MississippiState SEC 3-3 6-6 +5.4 63 47 +0.7 72 -4.5 53 +4.6 54 7.21 17
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-3 5-7 +5.3 64 64 +1.6 62 -4.1 56 +0.9 69 9.11 10
BostonCollege ACC 4-2 7-5 +4.7 65 46 +0.7 71 -3.8 58 +3.8 59 1.45 69
BallState MAC 4-3 8-4 +4.7 66 73 +3.5 51 -0.4 85 +7.7 35 0.37 74
WesternKentucky CUSA 2-4 6-6 +4.1 67 86 +12.2 9 +6.7 114 -5.1 105 -2.51 93
Washington P12 2-4 5-7 +3.6 68 62 -4.7 103 -9.3 18 -4.3 100 2.37 60
Toledo MAC 3-4 7-5 +3.6 69 68 -3.2 92 -7.6 23 -3.1 91 -6.17 123
SanDiegoState MWC 6-0 9-3 +3.3 70 65 -3.9 97 -6.0 38 +8.8 28 -4.11 108
Maryland B10 4-2 5-7 +3.1 71 72 +2.1 57 -0.3 86 +6.5 41 8.71 11
Marshall CUSA 4-3 7-5 +2.8 72 76 +3.3 52 -0.6 84 -5.2 106 -5.66 121
CentralFlorida Amer 3-3 7-5 +2.8 73 60 +6.8 31 +3.7 102 -0.0 74 -3.30 102
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 3-3 7-5 +2.6 74 75 -0.3 78 -3.5 61 -1.9 83 -3.14 101
FloridaState ACC 2-4 4-8 +2.4 75 79 +1.6 63 -1.4 80 -2.4 87 7.16 19
Stanford P12 3-4 5-7 +2.3 76 70 +0.9 69 -1.5 79 +0.9 67 6.25 23
SouthCarolina SEC 4-3 5-7 +2.2 77 67 -3.3 94 -4.7 52 +5.3 49 6.22 24
Wyoming MWC 4-2 8-4 +1.7 78 74 -2.6 89 -3.6 60 +5.3 51 -2.77 95
TexasTech B12 5-2 6-6 +1.5 79 80 +3.9 49 +3.0 99 +4.5 56 4.24 46
NorthernIllinois MAC 5-2 8-4 +1.0 80 77 +4.1 46 +4.3 107 +8.0 33 0.13 76
WashingtonState P12 4-3 6-6 +0.2 81 85 -3.4 95 -3.5 62 +0.6 71 2.32 61
UtahState MWC 4-2 8-4 +0.1 82 81 +3.0 54 +3.7 104 +5.1 52 -4.21 109
ColoradoState MWC 3-3 5-7 +0.1 83 91 -1.2 83 -1.6 77 -2.1 85 0.18 75
California P12 1-5 4-8 -0.0 84 82 -1.0 82 -2.6 66 -10.2 117 2.08 65
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -0.5 85 93 -4.7 104 -4.7 51 -3.8 95 9.51 7
Memphis Amer 4-3 6-6 -0.9 86 87 +4.8 41 +5.7 110 -0.6 76 -1.97 87
Buffalo MAC 3-4 6-6 -1.8 87 78 +0.9 68 +1.6 94 -7.7 111 -4.80 112
MiamiOH MAC 3-4 6-6 -1.9 88 89 -4.9 105 -3.2 64 -2.4 86 -4.82 113
Northwestern B10 3-3 4-8 -2.3 89 97 -3.8 96 -1.9 72 -3.5 93 6.17 26
EastCarolina Amer 3-3 6-6 -2.3 90 90 -1.2 86 +0.9 89 -3.0 90 -1.29 81
SouthAlabama Sun 4-2 7-5 -2.6 91 100 -4.5 102 -2.1 71 -3.0 89 -6.20 124
MiddleTennessee CUSA 2-4 6-6 -2.8 92 95 +1.1 67 +3.4 101 -4.9 103 -5.55 120
LouisianaTech CUSA 2-4 5-7 -2.9 93 84 +0.5 75 +2.9 98 -4.6 101 -3.55 105
Missouri SEC 3-4 4-8 -2.9 94 83 +7.6 27 +10.2 124 -4.0 97 4.05 47
EasternMichigan MAC 4-3 7-5 -3.2 95 88 -1.2 85 +2.2 95 -0.5 75 -5.21 117
Colorado P12 2-4 3-9 -3.3 96 99 -8.1 117 -5.7 39 -7.1 107 4.33 45
Tulane Amer 1-5 3-9 -5.1 97 103 +3.9 50 +8.3 119 -7.2 108 1.36 71
Tulsa Amer 3-4 5-7 -5.3 98 98 -4.4 101 +1.3 92 -1.0 79 1.38 70
Charlotte CUSA 4-2 7-5 -5.8 99 102 -3.2 93 +2.8 97 -2.4 88 -6.94 126
Troy Sun 4-3 5-7 -6.1 100 94 -7.9 114 -1.8 74 -3.1 92 -5.23 118
Hawaii MWC 3-4 6-7 -6.2 101 101 -3.0 90 +3.2 100 -3.8 96 -3.14 99
UTEP CUSA 6-1 8-4 -6.4 102 109 -9.1 121 -1.8 75 +2.8 63 -8.17 128
CentralMichigan MAC 4-3 6-6 -6.5 103 106 -4.0 98 +2.4 96 -4.8 102 -3.99 106
GeorgiaState Sun 2-4 5-7 -6.6 104 107 -1.8 87 +5.3 109 -2.0 84 -0.61 78
Duke ACC 3-4 4-8 -7.1 105 92 -3.0 91 +4.2 106 -3.5 94 3.20 55
KentState MAC 3-4 6-6 -7.5 106 96 +0.9 70 +9.1 122 -1.3 81 -4.87 115
SanJoseState MWC 3-4 4-8 -7.8 107 108 -12.6 128 -5.1 48 -4.3 99 -2.29 89
Navy Amer 1-5 3-9 -8.0 108 104 -8.3 118 -0.8 83 -7.2 109 5.18 36
OldDominion CUSA 1-6 3-9 -8.7 109 105 -6.3 111 +0.9 90 -14.4 127 -2.82 96
UNLV MWC 0-6 2-10 -10.3 110 114 -7.9 115 +1.4 93 -11.7 121 2.27 62
Temple Amer 3-3 5-7 -10.9 111 113 -5.6 108 +6.2 113 -1.2 80 -2.89 97
SouthFlorida Amer 1-5 2-10 -12.5 112 115 -5.1 106 +7.4 115 -8.6 114 1.81 68
BowlingGreen MAC 2-5 4-8 -12.5 113 118 -12.7 129 -0.9 82 -10.1 116 -4.29 110
TexasState Sun 2-4 4-8 -13.6 114 116 -6.1 110 +7.5 116 -8.7 115 -6.35 125
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 2-5 3-9 -13.6 115 111 -5.6 109 +7.8 117 -10.3 118 -1.67 83
Arizona P12 0-6 1-11 -13.8 116 110 -9.3 122 +3.7 103 -12.5 122 3.60 51
NorthTexas CUSA 1-5 3-9 -14.4 117 112 -8.0 116 +5.7 112 -12.6 125 -4.51 111
LouisianaMonroe Sun 3-3 4-8 -14.8 118 125 -7.8 113 +8.7 121 +0.2 73 -1.78 84
ArkansasState Sun 1-5 3-9 -15.2 119 119 +1.2 64 +16.3 130 -12.5 123 -3.01 98
FIU CUSA 1-5 3-9 -15.7 120 123 -4.2 100 +10.8 125 -14.7 129 -7.89 127
NewMexico MWC 2-5 3-9 -16.7 121 117 -13.0 130 +3.9 105 -7.7 112 -1.45 82
Ohio MAC 1-6 2-10 -16.8 122 124 -10.0 123 +5.7 111 -17.0 131 -5.32 119
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-6 2-10 -17.9 123 120 -12.4 127 +4.8 108 -13.5 126 -4.83 114
Kansas B12 1-5 1-11 -18.1 124 121 -8.8 120 +10.0 123 -7.9 113 7.89 13
Vanderbilt SEC 2-5 2-10 -18.2 125 127 -10.4 124 +8.4 120 -7.4 110 4.59 42
Akron MAC 2-5 3-9 -18.9 126 126 -6.4 112 +12.8 129 -11.0 119 -1.20 80
Massachusetts Ind 1-5 3-9 -19.5 127 128 -8.3 119 +11.5 126 -11.5 120 -2.35 91
Rice CUSA 2-4 3-9 -20.9 128 122 -13.7 131 +8.3 118 -5.1 104 -2.01 88
NewMexicoState Ind 1-6 2-10 -21.6 129 129 -5.2 107 +16.6 131 -14.6 128 -3.41 103
FCS Z_FCS 10-97 11-106 -23.5 130 130 -11.5 125 +12.4 128 -12.6 124 1.84 67
Connecticut Ind 1-7 1-11 -24.9 131 131 -12.4 126 +12.3 127 -16.7 130 -2.30 90

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +27.2 2 2 +15.6 5 -11.4 8 +19.1 2 10.25 4
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +26.5 3 3 +20.8 1 -6.7 30 +13.8 11 9.43 8
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +21.5 7 4 +5.3 38 -15.0 3 +18.0 4 7.49 14
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +20.9 8 6 +7.7 25 -12.5 5 +16.3 6 11.93 2
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +19.1 9 13 +8.4 21 -10.2 13 +15.4 8 10.13 5
Nebraska B10 3-5 5-7 +14.5 22 15 +5.2 39 -10.8 11 -1.3 82 9.67 6
Purdue B10 4-2 7-5 +13.5 24 55 +0.3 76 -12.8 4 +8.7 30 9.34 9
Wisconsin B10 3-3 6-6 +11.5 31 29 -0.7 80 -11.8 7 +7.8 34 11.03 3
Minnesota B10 4-2 8-4 +10.8 35 50 +4.5 43 -6.6 34 +5.3 50 6.53 22
Indiana B10 2-4 4-8 +8.4 47 51 +1.2 65 -7.3 25 +4.1 58 13.91 1
Rutgers B10 3-4 5-7 +7.3 55 40 -0.3 79 -8.1 21 +0.5 72 8.02 12
Maryland B10 4-2 5-7 +3.1 71 72 +2.1 57 -0.3 86 +6.5 41 8.71 11
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -0.5 85 93 -4.7 104 -4.7 51 -3.8 95 9.51 7
Northwestern B10 3-3 4-8 -2.3 89 97 -3.8 96 -1.9 72 -3.5 93 6.17 26

LOL at Clemson and their 2021 offense/defense split... hey man, it takes one to know one.

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +38.7 1 1 +17.8 4 -20.7 1 +25.3 1 0.81 1
Cincinnati Amer 6-0 12-0 +23.5 5 7 +12.1 10 -11.1 9 +16.6 5 0.69 2
CoastalCarolina Sun 6-0 11-1 +14.6 21 19 +9.3 14 -5.4 44 +8.9 26 0.44 3
UTSA CUSA 7-0 11-1 +8.2 50 71 +3.3 53 -3.9 57 +11.3 15 0.27 4
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +27.2 2 2 +15.6 5 -11.4 8 +19.1 2 0.19 5
Oklahoma B12 7-0 11-1 +17.9 11 12 +12.4 8 -5.1 47 +15.3 9 0.16 6
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 20 23 +8.8 17 -5.6 41 +11.7 14 0.06 7
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +19.1 9 13 +8.4 21 -10.2 13 +15.4 8 0.02 8
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +9.5 43 30 +7.0 30 -1.9 73 +10.0 22 0.02 9
OklahomaState B12 6-0 9-3 +10.6 38 45 -1.2 84 -9.7 14 +18.2 3 0.02 10
SanDiegoState MWC 6-0 9-3 +3.3 70 65 -3.9 97 -6.0 38 +8.8 28 0.01 11

UTSA to the playoff? Hmmm....

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Arizona P12 0-6 1-11 -13.8 116 110 -9.3 122 +3.7 103 -12.5 122 0.46 1
UNLV MWC 0-6 2-10 -10.3 110 114 -7.9 115 +1.4 93 -11.7 121 0.07 2

RIP to UConn, we lost a true legend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WChTqYlDjtI

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +38.7 1 1 +17.8 4 -20.7 1 +25.3 1 0.99 1
Michigan B10 6-0 11-1 +27.2 2 2 +15.6 5 -11.4 8 +19.1 2 0.58 5
Oklahoma B12 7-0 11-1 +17.9 11 12 +12.4 8 -5.1 47 +15.3 9 0.56 6
Alabama SEC 6-1 10-2 +24.6 4 5 +18.3 2 -7.1 27 +12.7 13 0.35 7
Pittsburgh ACC 5-1 10-2 +22.4 6 10 +17.8 3 -5.7 40 +10.1 21 0.33 8
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +21.5 7 4 +5.3 38 -15.0 3 +18.0 4 0.30 10
WakeForest ACC 6-0 10-2 +14.8 20 23 +8.8 17 -5.6 41 +11.7 14 0.29 11
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.5 15 16 +11.0 11 -4.7 50 +15.7 7 0.22 13
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +19.1 9 13 +8.4 21 -10.2 13 +15.4 8 0.18 15
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +12.4 27 38 +1.8 61 -9.2 19 +14.8 10 0.17 16
OklahomaState B12 6-0 9-3 +10.6 38 45 -1.2 84 -9.7 14 +18.2 3 0.16 17
OhioState B10 5-1 9-3 +26.5 3 3 +20.8 1 -6.7 30 +13.8 11 0.12 19
Mississippi SEC 5-1 9-3 +15.8 17 27 +13.4 7 -2.4 68 +11.1 17 0.09 20
Baylor B12 6-1 9-3 +15.2 18 26 +7.7 24 -6.8 29 +13.3 12 0.08 21
NorthCarolinaState ACC 5-1 9-3 +14.2 23 31 +2.9 55 -11.0 10 +9.4 24 0.07 22
Oregon P12 5-1 9-3 +12.5 26 21 +5.9 35 -6.6 33 +8.3 32 0.07 24
PennState B10 5-1 9-3 +20.9 8 6 +7.7 25 -12.5 5 +16.3 6 0.04 26

Hey, wait, is Pitt even ranked in the AP poll?

... okay I see that they are #23 right now. Oh for eff's sake, they lost to Western Michigan. Now it all makes sense.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
OklahomaState B12 6-0 9-3 +10.6 38 45 -1.2 84 -9.7 14 +18.2 3 1.39 1
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +12.4 27 38 +1.8 61 -9.2 19 +14.8 10 0.81 8
UTSA CUSA 7-0 11-1 +8.2 50 71 +3.3 53 -3.9 57 +11.3 15 0.74 9
WesternMichigan MAC 5-2 9-3 +9.3 44 57 +5.9 34 -2.6 67 +10.9 18 0.59 13
BYU Ind 5-2 8-4 +6.8 56 41 +0.3 77 -5.6 42 +9.2 25 0.59 15
NotreDame Ind 5-1 10-2 +16.5 15 16 +11.0 11 -4.7 50 +15.7 7 0.57 16
SMU Amer 6-0 10-2 +9.5 43 30 +7.0 30 -1.9 73 +10.0 22 0.45 24
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +21.5 7 4 +5.3 38 -15.0 3 +18.0 4 0.42 25
AirForce MWC 6-1 9-3 +10.2 40 43 +2.8 56 -6.7 31 +10.2 20 0.42 26

Okie Lite is the 2015 Iowa of 2021. Prove me wrong.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-5 2-10 -18.2 125 127 -10.4 124 +8.4 120 -7.4 110 4.59 42
Kansas B12 1-5 1-11 -18.1 124 121 -8.8 120 +10.0 123 -7.9 113 7.89 13
Arizona P12 0-6 1-11 -13.8 116 110 -9.3 122 +3.7 103 -12.5 122 3.60 51
Duke ACC 3-4 4-8 -7.1 105 92 -3.0 91 +4.2 106 -3.5 94 3.20 55
Colorado P12 2-4 3-9 -3.3 96 99 -8.1 117 -5.7 39 -7.1 107 4.33 45
Missouri SEC 3-4 4-8 -2.9 94 83 +7.6 27 +10.2 124 -4.0 97 4.05 47
Northwestern B10 3-3 4-8 -2.3 89 97 -3.8 96 -1.9 72 -3.5 93 6.17 26
Illinois B10 2-5 3-9 -0.5 85 93 -4.7 104 -4.7 51 -3.8 95 9.51 7
California P12 1-5 4-8 -0.0 84 82 -1.0 82 -2.6 66 -10.2 117 2.08 65

I believe in your Lance Liepold... just maybe not this year.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #4 Alabama V #63 MississippiState W 49 9
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #24 Purdue V #7 Iowa W 24 7
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #22 NorthCarolinaState V #65 BostonCollege W 33 7
8 Tue 2021-10-12 #52 LouisianaLafayette H #50 AppalachianState W 41 13
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #33 Virginia H #105 Duke W 48 0

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #45 UAB W 56 7
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #10 Auburn W 34 10
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #4 Alabama V #63 MississippiState W 49 9
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #2 Michigan H #80 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #26 Oregon V #3 OhioState W 35 28
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #24 Purdue V #7 Iowa W 24 7
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #25 Arkansas W 37 0
6 Fri 2021-10-01 #7 Iowa V #71 Maryland W 51 14
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #2 Michigan H #44 WesternMichigan W 47 14
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #3 OhioState V #56 Rutgers W 52 13

Great to see the B10 team show up on both sides of the list this year.

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 282.5 over 369 games, which would rank #24 (out of 51 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 23 #14 Clemson V #6 Pittsburgh 30% -7.5
Oct 23 #26 Oregon V #39 UCLA 49% -0.3
Oct 23 #33 OregonState H #30 Utah 54% 1.5
Oct 23 #24 Purdue H #31 Wisconsin 62% 4.3
Oct 23 #19 Tennessee V #4 Alabama 21% -12.0
Oct 23 #23 NorthCarolinaState V #52 Miami 61% 3.9
Oct 23 #53 Syracuse V #62 VirginiaTech 47% -1.0
Oct 23 #12 IowaState H #38 OklahomaState 73% 9.1
Oct 20 #60 AppalachianState H #21 CoastalCarolina 34% -5.8
Oct 23 #20 WakeForest V #61 Army 66% 6.1
Oct 23 #37 FresnoState H #54 Nevada 65% 5.6
Oct 23 #69 Toledo H #44 WesternMichigan 41% -3.3
Oct 23 #46 TCU H #59 WestVirginia 62% 4.3
Oct 23 #48 LSU V #17 Mississippi 25% -9.7
Oct 23 #47 Indiana H #3 OhioState 15% -15.6
Oct 23 #65 BostonCollege V #58 Louisville 39% -4.2
Oct 23 #64 GeorgiaTech V #34 Virginia 29% -7.9
Oct 23 #42 KansasState V #79 TexasTech 66% 5.9
Oct 23 #15 NotreDame H #57 USC 79% 12.1
Oct 23 #56 BYU V #81 WashingtonState 61% 4.2
Oct 22 #83 ColoradoState V #82 UtahState 43% -2.4
Oct 23 #40 AirForce H #70 SanDiegoState 74% 9.2
Oct 23 #71 Maryland V #35 Minnesota 25% -10.0
Oct 22 #73 CentralFlorida H #86 Memphis 66% 5.9
Oct 23 #77 SouthCarolina V #29 TexasAM 21% -12.0
Oct 23 #93 LouisianaTech H #50 UTSA 28% -8.6
Oct 23 #84 California H #96 Colorado 65% 5.6
Oct 23 #88 MiamiOH V #66 BallState 27% -8.9
Oct 21 #99 Charlotte H #74 FloridaAtlantic 34% -6.0
Oct 23 #103 CentralMichigan H #80 NorthernIllinois 36% -5.1
Oct 21 #107 SanJoseState V #110 UNLV 50% 0.2
Oct 23 #90 EastCarolina V #41 Houston 16% -14.6
Oct 23 #112 SouthFlorida H #111 Temple 52% 0.8
Oct 23 #8 PennState H #85 Illinois 93% 23.6
Oct 21 #43 SMU H #97 Tulane 87% 16.8
Oct 23 #113 BowlingGreen H #95 EasternMichigan 32% -6.9
Oct 23 #118 LouisianaMonroe H #91 SouthAlabama 25% -9.8
Oct 23 #106 KentState V #122 Ohio 68% 6.8
Oct 23 #2 Michigan H #89 Northwestern 97% 31.5
Oct 23 #104 GeorgiaState H #114 TexasState 74% 9.2
Oct 22 #68 Washington V #116 Arizona 84% 14.9
Oct 23 #5 Cincinnati V #108 Navy 96% 28.8
Oct 23 #120 FIU H #67 WesternKentucky 13% -17.2
Oct 21 #119 ArkansasState H #51 LouisianaLafayette 9% -20.6
Oct 23 #117 NorthTexas H #32 Liberty 7% -23.0
Oct 23 #126 Akron H #87 Buffalo 16% -14.6
Oct 23 #125 Vanderbilt H #63 MississippiState 9% -20.9
Oct 23 #121 NewMexico V #78 Wyoming 9% -20.6
Oct 23 #129 NewMexicoState V #101 Hawaii 12% -17.6
Oct 23 #75 FloridaState H #127 Massachusetts 94% 24.0
Oct 22 #92 MiddleTennessee V #131 Connecticut 90% 19.5
Oct 23 #124 Kansas H #11 Oklahoma 2% -33.4
Oct 23 #128 Rice V #45 UAB 3% -32.0
Oct 23 #25 Arkansas H Arkansas-Pine Bluff 100% 51.0

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 23 #24 Purdue H #31 Wisconsin 62% 4.3
Oct 23 #47 Indiana H #3 OhioState 15% -15.6
Oct 23 #71 Maryland V #35 Minnesota 25% -10.0
Oct 23 #8 PennState H #85 Illinois 93% 23.6
Oct 23 #2 Michigan H #89 Northwestern 97% 31.5

Wisconsin! Purdue! Feel the excitement!

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