Ideally, I'd have these come out on Wednesday every week. However, life gets in the way. I know I took last year off (#CovidCasualty), but I may have to retire this as a regular hobby for a good few years come 2022. At least until we ship the kids off to military school.
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +38.7 | 1 | 1 | +17.8 | 4 | -20.7 | 1 | +25.3 | 1 | 5.26 | 35 |
Michigan | B10 | 6-0 | 11-1 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +15.6 | 5 | -11.4 | 8 | +19.1 | 2 | 10.25 | 4 |
OhioState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +26.5 | 3 | 3 | +20.8 | 1 | -6.7 | 30 | +13.8 | 11 | 9.43 | 8 |
Alabama | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +24.6 | 4 | 5 | +18.3 | 2 | -7.1 | 27 | +12.7 | 13 | 4.45 | 43 |
Cincinnati | Amer | 6-0 | 12-0 | +23.5 | 5 | 7 | +12.1 | 10 | -11.1 | 9 | +16.6 | 5 | -3.14 | 100 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 5-1 | 10-2 | +22.4 | 6 | 10 | +17.8 | 3 | -5.7 | 40 | +10.1 | 21 | 3.28 | 54 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +21.5 | 7 | 4 | +5.3 | 38 | -15.0 | 3 | +18.0 | 4 | 7.49 | 14 |
PennState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 8 | 6 | +7.7 | 25 | -12.5 | 5 | +16.3 | 6 | 11.93 | 2 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +19.1 | 9 | 13 | +8.4 | 21 | -10.2 | 13 | +15.4 | 8 | 10.13 | 5 |
Auburn | SEC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +18.4 | 10 | 17 | +8.8 | 16 | -9.6 | 16 | +11.3 | 16 | 7.42 | 15 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +17.9 | 11 | 12 | +12.4 | 8 | -5.1 | 47 | +15.3 | 9 | 3.45 | 52 |
IowaState | B12 | 4-2 | 8-4 | +17.4 | 12 | 14 | +8.6 | 18 | -9.4 | 17 | +7.2 | 37 | 6.95 | 20 |
Florida | SEC | 4-3 | 8-4 | +17.2 | 13 | 11 | +8.6 | 19 | -9.6 | 15 | +5.0 | 53 | 4.86 | 41 |
Clemson | ACC | 4-2 | 8-4 | +17.2 | 14 | 9 | -1.8 | 88 | -18.2 | 2 | +10.0 | 23 | 5.70 | 31 |
NotreDame | Ind | 5-1 | 10-2 | +16.5 | 15 | 16 | +11.0 | 11 | -4.7 | 50 | +15.7 | 7 | 7.18 | 18 |
Texas | B12 | 4-3 | 7-5 | +16.2 | 16 | 8 | +15.1 | 6 | -1.3 | 81 | +10.3 | 19 | 5.79 | 30 |
Mississippi | SEC | 5-1 | 9-3 | +15.8 | 17 | 27 | +13.4 | 7 | -2.4 | 68 | +11.1 | 17 | 5.66 | 32 |
Baylor | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 18 | 26 | +7.7 | 24 | -6.8 | 29 | +13.3 | 12 | 2.15 | 63 |
Tennessee | SEC | 4-3 | 7-5 | +14.8 | 19 | 22 | +10.0 | 12 | -6.2 | 35 | +1.7 | 64 | 5.15 | 37 |
WakeForest | ACC | 6-0 | 10-2 | +14.8 | 20 | 23 | +8.8 | 17 | -5.6 | 41 | +11.7 | 14 | 2.88 | 56 |
CoastalCarolina | Sun | 6-0 | 11-1 | +14.6 | 21 | 19 | +9.3 | 14 | -5.4 | 44 | +8.9 | 26 | -10.12 | 131 |
Nebraska | B10 | 3-5 | 5-7 | +14.5 | 22 | 15 | +5.2 | 39 | -10.8 | 11 | -1.3 | 82 | 9.67 | 6 |
NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 5-1 | 9-3 | +14.2 | 23 | 31 | +2.9 | 55 | -11.0 | 10 | +9.4 | 24 | 3.98 | 48 |
Purdue | B10 | 4-2 | 7-5 | +13.5 | 24 | 55 | +0.3 | 76 | -12.8 | 4 | +8.7 | 30 | 9.34 | 9 |
Arkansas | SEC | 4-3 | 7-5 | +13.2 | 25 | 18 | +7.1 | 29 | -6.0 | 37 | +8.9 | 27 | 5.66 | 33 |
Oregon | P12 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +12.5 | 26 | 21 | +5.9 | 35 | -6.6 | 33 | +8.3 | 32 | 2.81 | 57 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +12.4 | 27 | 38 | +1.8 | 61 | -9.2 | 19 | +14.8 | 10 | 1.94 | 66 |
BoiseState | MWC | 3-4 | 7-5 | +12.2 | 28 | 24 | +5.1 | 40 | -7.3 | 26 | +6.0 | 44 | 2.53 | 58 |
TexasAM | SEC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +11.9 | 29 | 28 | -0.8 | 81 | -12.4 | 6 | +7.4 | 36 | 2.14 | 64 |
Utah | P12 | 4-2 | 8-4 | +11.8 | 30 | 34 | +6.4 | 32 | -5.2 | 46 | +8.7 | 29 | 2.51 | 59 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 3-3 | 6-6 | +11.5 | 31 | 29 | -0.7 | 80 | -11.8 | 7 | +7.8 | 34 | 11.03 | 3 |
Liberty | Ind | 5-2 | 9-3 | +11.2 | 32 | 20 | +4.4 | 44 | -7.4 | 24 | +3.2 | 61 | -3.53 | 104 |
OregonState | P12 | 4-2 | 8-4 | +11.0 | 33 | 35 | +8.9 | 15 | -2.4 | 69 | +5.6 | 48 | 3.38 | 53 |
Virginia | ACC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +10.9 | 34 | 59 | +7.6 | 26 | -3.6 | 59 | +5.8 | 45 | 5.08 | 38 |
Minnesota | B10 | 4-2 | 8-4 | +10.8 | 35 | 50 | +4.5 | 43 | -6.6 | 34 | +5.3 | 50 | 6.53 | 22 |
ArizonaState | P12 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +10.7 | 36 | 25 | +3.9 | 48 | -6.9 | 28 | +6.1 | 43 | -0.27 | 77 |
FresnoState | MWC | 5-2 | 9-3 | +10.7 | 37 | 49 | +6.2 | 33 | -4.9 | 49 | +4.5 | 55 | -4.00 | 107 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | -1.2 | 84 | -9.7 | 14 | +18.2 | 3 | 5.06 | 39 |
UCLA | P12 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +10.4 | 39 | 36 | +8.4 | 20 | -2.1 | 70 | +6.9 | 38 | 3.62 | 50 |
AirForce | MWC | 6-1 | 9-3 | +10.2 | 40 | 43 | +2.8 | 56 | -6.7 | 31 | +10.2 | 20 | -1.80 | 86 |
Houston | Amer | 5-1 | 10-2 | +10.1 | 41 | 32 | +3.9 | 47 | -6.1 | 36 | +6.4 | 42 | -9.00 | 130 |
KansasState | B12 | 3-3 | 7-5 | +9.8 | 42 | 39 | +2.0 | 58 | -7.8 | 22 | +5.6 | 47 | 6.04 | 27 |
SMU | Amer | 6-0 | 10-2 | +9.5 | 43 | 30 | +7.0 | 30 | -1.9 | 73 | +10.0 | 22 | -2.43 | 92 |
WesternMichigan | MAC | 5-2 | 9-3 | +9.3 | 44 | 57 | +5.9 | 34 | -2.6 | 67 | +10.9 | 18 | 0.43 | 73 |
UAB | CUSA | 5-2 | 9-3 | +9.1 | 45 | 48 | +0.6 | 73 | -8.2 | 20 | +6.7 | 39 | -1.13 | 79 |
TCU | B12 | 3-3 | 6-6 | +8.4 | 46 | 33 | +7.2 | 28 | -1.5 | 78 | +3.8 | 60 | 4.88 | 40 |
Indiana | B10 | 2-4 | 4-8 | +8.4 | 47 | 51 | +1.2 | 65 | -7.3 | 25 | +4.1 | 58 | 13.91 | 1 |
LSU | SEC | 4-3 | 6-6 | +8.4 | 48 | 52 | +8.3 | 22 | -0.1 | 87 | +5.8 | 46 | 7.41 | 16 |
NorthCarolina | ACC | 4-3 | 6-6 | +8.3 | 49 | 42 | +9.9 | 13 | +0.8 | 88 | +0.9 | 68 | 6.18 | 25 |
UTSA | CUSA | 7-0 | 11-1 | +8.2 | 50 | 71 | +3.3 | 53 | -3.9 | 57 | +11.3 | 15 | -8.78 | 129 |
LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 5-1 | 10-2 | +8.0 | 51 | 66 | +2.0 | 59 | -5.4 | 43 | +8.4 | 31 | -5.73 | 122 |
Miami | ACC | 2-4 | 5-7 | +7.8 | 52 | 44 | +5.4 | 37 | -3.5 | 63 | -0.8 | 78 | 6.58 | 21 |
Syracuse | ACC | 3-4 | 5-7 | +7.5 | 53 | 54 | +4.5 | 42 | -4.4 | 54 | -4.1 | 98 | 5.82 | 29 |
Nevada | MWC | 5-1 | 9-3 | +7.4 | 54 | 53 | +5.4 | 36 | -1.7 | 76 | +6.6 | 40 | -1.78 | 85 |
Rutgers | B10 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +7.3 | 55 | 40 | -0.3 | 79 | -8.1 | 21 | +0.5 | 72 | 8.02 | 12 |
BYU | Ind | 5-2 | 8-4 | +6.8 | 56 | 41 | +0.3 | 77 | -5.6 | 42 | +9.2 | 25 | 0.51 | 72 |
USC | P12 | 3-3 | 6-6 | +6.7 | 57 | 58 | +8.3 | 23 | +1.0 | 91 | +1.3 | 66 | 3.73 | 49 |
Louisville | ACC | 3-3 | 6-6 | +6.5 | 58 | 63 | +4.2 | 45 | -2.8 | 65 | +1.5 | 65 | 6.00 | 28 |
WestVirginia | B12 | 2-4 | 5-7 | +6.4 | 59 | 61 | +0.5 | 74 | -6.6 | 32 | -0.7 | 77 | 4.40 | 44 |
AppalachianState | Sun | 4-2 | 9-3 | +6.3 | 60 | 37 | +1.9 | 60 | -4.3 | 55 | +4.2 | 57 | -4.88 | 116 |
Army | Ind | 4-2 | 8-4 | +6.3 | 61 | 69 | +1.2 | 66 | -5.2 | 45 | +3.1 | 62 | -2.52 | 94 |
VirginiaTech | ACC | 3-3 | 6-6 | +6.1 | 62 | 56 | -4.2 | 99 | -10.6 | 12 | +0.7 | 70 | 5.58 | 34 |
MississippiState | SEC | 3-3 | 6-6 | +5.4 | 63 | 47 | +0.7 | 72 | -4.5 | 53 | +4.6 | 54 | 7.21 | 17 |
GeorgiaTech | ACC | 3-3 | 5-7 | +5.3 | 64 | 64 | +1.6 | 62 | -4.1 | 56 | +0.9 | 69 | 9.11 | 10 |
BostonCollege | ACC | 4-2 | 7-5 | +4.7 | 65 | 46 | +0.7 | 71 | -3.8 | 58 | +3.8 | 59 | 1.45 | 69 |
BallState | MAC | 4-3 | 8-4 | +4.7 | 66 | 73 | +3.5 | 51 | -0.4 | 85 | +7.7 | 35 | 0.37 | 74 |
WesternKentucky | CUSA | 2-4 | 6-6 | +4.1 | 67 | 86 | +12.2 | 9 | +6.7 | 114 | -5.1 | 105 | -2.51 | 93 |
Washington | P12 | 2-4 | 5-7 | +3.6 | 68 | 62 | -4.7 | 103 | -9.3 | 18 | -4.3 | 100 | 2.37 | 60 |
Toledo | MAC | 3-4 | 7-5 | +3.6 | 69 | 68 | -3.2 | 92 | -7.6 | 23 | -3.1 | 91 | -6.17 | 123 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 6-0 | 9-3 | +3.3 | 70 | 65 | -3.9 | 97 | -6.0 | 38 | +8.8 | 28 | -4.11 | 108 |
Maryland | B10 | 4-2 | 5-7 | +3.1 | 71 | 72 | +2.1 | 57 | -0.3 | 86 | +6.5 | 41 | 8.71 | 11 |
Marshall | CUSA | 4-3 | 7-5 | +2.8 | 72 | 76 | +3.3 | 52 | -0.6 | 84 | -5.2 | 106 | -5.66 | 121 |
CentralFlorida | Amer | 3-3 | 7-5 | +2.8 | 73 | 60 | +6.8 | 31 | +3.7 | 102 | -0.0 | 74 | -3.30 | 102 |
FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 3-3 | 7-5 | +2.6 | 74 | 75 | -0.3 | 78 | -3.5 | 61 | -1.9 | 83 | -3.14 | 101 |
FloridaState | ACC | 2-4 | 4-8 | +2.4 | 75 | 79 | +1.6 | 63 | -1.4 | 80 | -2.4 | 87 | 7.16 | 19 |
Stanford | P12 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +2.3 | 76 | 70 | +0.9 | 69 | -1.5 | 79 | +0.9 | 67 | 6.25 | 23 |
SouthCarolina | SEC | 4-3 | 5-7 | +2.2 | 77 | 67 | -3.3 | 94 | -4.7 | 52 | +5.3 | 49 | 6.22 | 24 |
Wyoming | MWC | 4-2 | 8-4 | +1.7 | 78 | 74 | -2.6 | 89 | -3.6 | 60 | +5.3 | 51 | -2.77 | 95 |
TexasTech | B12 | 5-2 | 6-6 | +1.5 | 79 | 80 | +3.9 | 49 | +3.0 | 99 | +4.5 | 56 | 4.24 | 46 |
NorthernIllinois | MAC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +1.0 | 80 | 77 | +4.1 | 46 | +4.3 | 107 | +8.0 | 33 | 0.13 | 76 |
WashingtonState | P12 | 4-3 | 6-6 | +0.2 | 81 | 85 | -3.4 | 95 | -3.5 | 62 | +0.6 | 71 | 2.32 | 61 |
UtahState | MWC | 4-2 | 8-4 | +0.1 | 82 | 81 | +3.0 | 54 | +3.7 | 104 | +5.1 | 52 | -4.21 | 109 |
ColoradoState | MWC | 3-3 | 5-7 | +0.1 | 83 | 91 | -1.2 | 83 | -1.6 | 77 | -2.1 | 85 | 0.18 | 75 |
California | P12 | 1-5 | 4-8 | -0.0 | 84 | 82 | -1.0 | 82 | -2.6 | 66 | -10.2 | 117 | 2.08 | 65 |
Illinois | B10 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.5 | 85 | 93 | -4.7 | 104 | -4.7 | 51 | -3.8 | 95 | 9.51 | 7 |
Memphis | Amer | 4-3 | 6-6 | -0.9 | 86 | 87 | +4.8 | 41 | +5.7 | 110 | -0.6 | 76 | -1.97 | 87 |
Buffalo | MAC | 3-4 | 6-6 | -1.8 | 87 | 78 | +0.9 | 68 | +1.6 | 94 | -7.7 | 111 | -4.80 | 112 |
MiamiOH | MAC | 3-4 | 6-6 | -1.9 | 88 | 89 | -4.9 | 105 | -3.2 | 64 | -2.4 | 86 | -4.82 | 113 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-3 | 4-8 | -2.3 | 89 | 97 | -3.8 | 96 | -1.9 | 72 | -3.5 | 93 | 6.17 | 26 |
EastCarolina | Amer | 3-3 | 6-6 | -2.3 | 90 | 90 | -1.2 | 86 | +0.9 | 89 | -3.0 | 90 | -1.29 | 81 |
SouthAlabama | Sun | 4-2 | 7-5 | -2.6 | 91 | 100 | -4.5 | 102 | -2.1 | 71 | -3.0 | 89 | -6.20 | 124 |
MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 2-4 | 6-6 | -2.8 | 92 | 95 | +1.1 | 67 | +3.4 | 101 | -4.9 | 103 | -5.55 | 120 |
LouisianaTech | CUSA | 2-4 | 5-7 | -2.9 | 93 | 84 | +0.5 | 75 | +2.9 | 98 | -4.6 | 101 | -3.55 | 105 |
Missouri | SEC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -2.9 | 94 | 83 | +7.6 | 27 | +10.2 | 124 | -4.0 | 97 | 4.05 | 47 |
EasternMichigan | MAC | 4-3 | 7-5 | -3.2 | 95 | 88 | -1.2 | 85 | +2.2 | 95 | -0.5 | 75 | -5.21 | 117 |
Colorado | P12 | 2-4 | 3-9 | -3.3 | 96 | 99 | -8.1 | 117 | -5.7 | 39 | -7.1 | 107 | 4.33 | 45 |
Tulane | Amer | 1-5 | 3-9 | -5.1 | 97 | 103 | +3.9 | 50 | +8.3 | 119 | -7.2 | 108 | 1.36 | 71 |
Tulsa | Amer | 3-4 | 5-7 | -5.3 | 98 | 98 | -4.4 | 101 | +1.3 | 92 | -1.0 | 79 | 1.38 | 70 |
Charlotte | CUSA | 4-2 | 7-5 | -5.8 | 99 | 102 | -3.2 | 93 | +2.8 | 97 | -2.4 | 88 | -6.94 | 126 |
Troy | Sun | 4-3 | 5-7 | -6.1 | 100 | 94 | -7.9 | 114 | -1.8 | 74 | -3.1 | 92 | -5.23 | 118 |
Hawaii | MWC | 3-4 | 6-7 | -6.2 | 101 | 101 | -3.0 | 90 | +3.2 | 100 | -3.8 | 96 | -3.14 | 99 |
UTEP | CUSA | 6-1 | 8-4 | -6.4 | 102 | 109 | -9.1 | 121 | -1.8 | 75 | +2.8 | 63 | -8.17 | 128 |
CentralMichigan | MAC | 4-3 | 6-6 | -6.5 | 103 | 106 | -4.0 | 98 | +2.4 | 96 | -4.8 | 102 | -3.99 | 106 |
GeorgiaState | Sun | 2-4 | 5-7 | -6.6 | 104 | 107 | -1.8 | 87 | +5.3 | 109 | -2.0 | 84 | -0.61 | 78 |
Duke | ACC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -7.1 | 105 | 92 | -3.0 | 91 | +4.2 | 106 | -3.5 | 94 | 3.20 | 55 |
KentState | MAC | 3-4 | 6-6 | -7.5 | 106 | 96 | +0.9 | 70 | +9.1 | 122 | -1.3 | 81 | -4.87 | 115 |
SanJoseState | MWC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -7.8 | 107 | 108 | -12.6 | 128 | -5.1 | 48 | -4.3 | 99 | -2.29 | 89 |
Navy | Amer | 1-5 | 3-9 | -8.0 | 108 | 104 | -8.3 | 118 | -0.8 | 83 | -7.2 | 109 | 5.18 | 36 |
OldDominion | CUSA | 1-6 | 3-9 | -8.7 | 109 | 105 | -6.3 | 111 | +0.9 | 90 | -14.4 | 127 | -2.82 | 96 |
UNLV | MWC | 0-6 | 2-10 | -10.3 | 110 | 114 | -7.9 | 115 | +1.4 | 93 | -11.7 | 121 | 2.27 | 62 |
Temple | Amer | 3-3 | 5-7 | -10.9 | 111 | 113 | -5.6 | 108 | +6.2 | 113 | -1.2 | 80 | -2.89 | 97 |
SouthFlorida | Amer | 1-5 | 2-10 | -12.5 | 112 | 115 | -5.1 | 106 | +7.4 | 115 | -8.6 | 114 | 1.81 | 68 |
BowlingGreen | MAC | 2-5 | 4-8 | -12.5 | 113 | 118 | -12.7 | 129 | -0.9 | 82 | -10.1 | 116 | -4.29 | 110 |
TexasState | Sun | 2-4 | 4-8 | -13.6 | 114 | 116 | -6.1 | 110 | +7.5 | 116 | -8.7 | 115 | -6.35 | 125 |
GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 2-5 | 3-9 | -13.6 | 115 | 111 | -5.6 | 109 | +7.8 | 117 | -10.3 | 118 | -1.67 | 83 |
Arizona | P12 | 0-6 | 1-11 | -13.8 | 116 | 110 | -9.3 | 122 | +3.7 | 103 | -12.5 | 122 | 3.60 | 51 |
NorthTexas | CUSA | 1-5 | 3-9 | -14.4 | 117 | 112 | -8.0 | 116 | +5.7 | 112 | -12.6 | 125 | -4.51 | 111 |
LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 3-3 | 4-8 | -14.8 | 118 | 125 | -7.8 | 113 | +8.7 | 121 | +0.2 | 73 | -1.78 | 84 |
ArkansasState | Sun | 1-5 | 3-9 | -15.2 | 119 | 119 | +1.2 | 64 | +16.3 | 130 | -12.5 | 123 | -3.01 | 98 |
FIU | CUSA | 1-5 | 3-9 | -15.7 | 120 | 123 | -4.2 | 100 | +10.8 | 125 | -14.7 | 129 | -7.89 | 127 |
NewMexico | MWC | 2-5 | 3-9 | -16.7 | 121 | 117 | -13.0 | 130 | +3.9 | 105 | -7.7 | 112 | -1.45 | 82 |
Ohio | MAC | 1-6 | 2-10 | -16.8 | 122 | 124 | -10.0 | 123 | +5.7 | 111 | -17.0 | 131 | -5.32 | 119 |
SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 1-6 | 2-10 | -17.9 | 123 | 120 | -12.4 | 127 | +4.8 | 108 | -13.5 | 126 | -4.83 | 114 |
Kansas | B12 | 1-5 | 1-11 | -18.1 | 124 | 121 | -8.8 | 120 | +10.0 | 123 | -7.9 | 113 | 7.89 | 13 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-5 | 2-10 | -18.2 | 125 | 127 | -10.4 | 124 | +8.4 | 120 | -7.4 | 110 | 4.59 | 42 |
Akron | MAC | 2-5 | 3-9 | -18.9 | 126 | 126 | -6.4 | 112 | +12.8 | 129 | -11.0 | 119 | -1.20 | 80 |
Massachusetts | Ind | 1-5 | 3-9 | -19.5 | 127 | 128 | -8.3 | 119 | +11.5 | 126 | -11.5 | 120 | -2.35 | 91 |
Rice | CUSA | 2-4 | 3-9 | -20.9 | 128 | 122 | -13.7 | 131 | +8.3 | 118 | -5.1 | 104 | -2.01 | 88 |
NewMexicoState | Ind | 1-6 | 2-10 | -21.6 | 129 | 129 | -5.2 | 107 | +16.6 | 131 | -14.6 | 128 | -3.41 | 103 |
FCS | Z_FCS | 10-97 | 11-106 | -23.5 | 130 | 130 | -11.5 | 125 | +12.4 | 128 | -12.6 | 124 | 1.84 | 67 |
Connecticut | Ind | 1-7 | 1-11 | -24.9 | 131 | 131 | -12.4 | 126 | +12.3 | 127 | -16.7 | 130 | -2.30 | 90 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan | B10 | 6-0 | 11-1 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +15.6 | 5 | -11.4 | 8 | +19.1 | 2 | 10.25 | 4 |
OhioState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +26.5 | 3 | 3 | +20.8 | 1 | -6.7 | 30 | +13.8 | 11 | 9.43 | 8 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +21.5 | 7 | 4 | +5.3 | 38 | -15.0 | 3 | +18.0 | 4 | 7.49 | 14 |
PennState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 8 | 6 | +7.7 | 25 | -12.5 | 5 | +16.3 | 6 | 11.93 | 2 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +19.1 | 9 | 13 | +8.4 | 21 | -10.2 | 13 | +15.4 | 8 | 10.13 | 5 |
Nebraska | B10 | 3-5 | 5-7 | +14.5 | 22 | 15 | +5.2 | 39 | -10.8 | 11 | -1.3 | 82 | 9.67 | 6 |
Purdue | B10 | 4-2 | 7-5 | +13.5 | 24 | 55 | +0.3 | 76 | -12.8 | 4 | +8.7 | 30 | 9.34 | 9 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 3-3 | 6-6 | +11.5 | 31 | 29 | -0.7 | 80 | -11.8 | 7 | +7.8 | 34 | 11.03 | 3 |
Minnesota | B10 | 4-2 | 8-4 | +10.8 | 35 | 50 | +4.5 | 43 | -6.6 | 34 | +5.3 | 50 | 6.53 | 22 |
Indiana | B10 | 2-4 | 4-8 | +8.4 | 47 | 51 | +1.2 | 65 | -7.3 | 25 | +4.1 | 58 | 13.91 | 1 |
Rutgers | B10 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +7.3 | 55 | 40 | -0.3 | 79 | -8.1 | 21 | +0.5 | 72 | 8.02 | 12 |
Maryland | B10 | 4-2 | 5-7 | +3.1 | 71 | 72 | +2.1 | 57 | -0.3 | 86 | +6.5 | 41 | 8.71 | 11 |
Illinois | B10 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.5 | 85 | 93 | -4.7 | 104 | -4.7 | 51 | -3.8 | 95 | 9.51 | 7 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-3 | 4-8 | -2.3 | 89 | 97 | -3.8 | 96 | -1.9 | 72 | -3.5 | 93 | 6.17 | 26 |
LOL at Clemson and their 2021 offense/defense split... hey man, it takes one to know one.
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +38.7 | 1 | 1 | +17.8 | 4 | -20.7 | 1 | +25.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 |
Cincinnati | Amer | 6-0 | 12-0 | +23.5 | 5 | 7 | +12.1 | 10 | -11.1 | 9 | +16.6 | 5 | 0.69 | 2 |
CoastalCarolina | Sun | 6-0 | 11-1 | +14.6 | 21 | 19 | +9.3 | 14 | -5.4 | 44 | +8.9 | 26 | 0.44 | 3 |
UTSA | CUSA | 7-0 | 11-1 | +8.2 | 50 | 71 | +3.3 | 53 | -3.9 | 57 | +11.3 | 15 | 0.27 | 4 |
Michigan | B10 | 6-0 | 11-1 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +15.6 | 5 | -11.4 | 8 | +19.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 5 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +17.9 | 11 | 12 | +12.4 | 8 | -5.1 | 47 | +15.3 | 9 | 0.16 | 6 |
WakeForest | ACC | 6-0 | 10-2 | +14.8 | 20 | 23 | +8.8 | 17 | -5.6 | 41 | +11.7 | 14 | 0.06 | 7 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +19.1 | 9 | 13 | +8.4 | 21 | -10.2 | 13 | +15.4 | 8 | 0.02 | 8 |
SMU | Amer | 6-0 | 10-2 | +9.5 | 43 | 30 | +7.0 | 30 | -1.9 | 73 | +10.0 | 22 | 0.02 | 9 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | -1.2 | 84 | -9.7 | 14 | +18.2 | 3 | 0.02 | 10 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 6-0 | 9-3 | +3.3 | 70 | 65 | -3.9 | 97 | -6.0 | 38 | +8.8 | 28 | 0.01 | 11 |
UTSA to the playoff? Hmmm....
Now the more interesting set:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | P12 | 0-6 | 1-11 | -13.8 | 116 | 110 | -9.3 | 122 | +3.7 | 103 | -12.5 | 122 | 0.46 | 1 |
UNLV | MWC | 0-6 | 2-10 | -10.3 | 110 | 114 | -7.9 | 115 | +1.4 | 93 | -11.7 | 121 | 0.07 | 2 |
RIP to UConn, we lost a true legend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WChTqYlDjtI
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +38.7 | 1 | 1 | +17.8 | 4 | -20.7 | 1 | +25.3 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 |
Michigan | B10 | 6-0 | 11-1 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +15.6 | 5 | -11.4 | 8 | +19.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 5 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +17.9 | 11 | 12 | +12.4 | 8 | -5.1 | 47 | +15.3 | 9 | 0.56 | 6 |
Alabama | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +24.6 | 4 | 5 | +18.3 | 2 | -7.1 | 27 | +12.7 | 13 | 0.35 | 7 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 5-1 | 10-2 | +22.4 | 6 | 10 | +17.8 | 3 | -5.7 | 40 | +10.1 | 21 | 0.33 | 8 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +21.5 | 7 | 4 | +5.3 | 38 | -15.0 | 3 | +18.0 | 4 | 0.30 | 10 |
WakeForest | ACC | 6-0 | 10-2 | +14.8 | 20 | 23 | +8.8 | 17 | -5.6 | 41 | +11.7 | 14 | 0.29 | 11 |
NotreDame | Ind | 5-1 | 10-2 | +16.5 | 15 | 16 | +11.0 | 11 | -4.7 | 50 | +15.7 | 7 | 0.22 | 13 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +19.1 | 9 | 13 | +8.4 | 21 | -10.2 | 13 | +15.4 | 8 | 0.18 | 15 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +12.4 | 27 | 38 | +1.8 | 61 | -9.2 | 19 | +14.8 | 10 | 0.17 | 16 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | -1.2 | 84 | -9.7 | 14 | +18.2 | 3 | 0.16 | 17 |
OhioState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +26.5 | 3 | 3 | +20.8 | 1 | -6.7 | 30 | +13.8 | 11 | 0.12 | 19 |
Mississippi | SEC | 5-1 | 9-3 | +15.8 | 17 | 27 | +13.4 | 7 | -2.4 | 68 | +11.1 | 17 | 0.09 | 20 |
Baylor | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 18 | 26 | +7.7 | 24 | -6.8 | 29 | +13.3 | 12 | 0.08 | 21 |
NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 5-1 | 9-3 | +14.2 | 23 | 31 | +2.9 | 55 | -11.0 | 10 | +9.4 | 24 | 0.07 | 22 |
Oregon | P12 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +12.5 | 26 | 21 | +5.9 | 35 | -6.6 | 33 | +8.3 | 32 | 0.07 | 24 |
PennState | B10 | 5-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 8 | 6 | +7.7 | 25 | -12.5 | 5 | +16.3 | 6 | 0.04 | 26 |
Hey, wait, is Pitt even ranked in the AP poll?
... okay I see that they are #23 right now. Oh for eff's sake, they lost to Western Michigan. Now it all makes sense.
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | -1.2 | 84 | -9.7 | 14 | +18.2 | 3 | 1.39 | 1 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +12.4 | 27 | 38 | +1.8 | 61 | -9.2 | 19 | +14.8 | 10 | 0.81 | 8 |
UTSA | CUSA | 7-0 | 11-1 | +8.2 | 50 | 71 | +3.3 | 53 | -3.9 | 57 | +11.3 | 15 | 0.74 | 9 |
WesternMichigan | MAC | 5-2 | 9-3 | +9.3 | 44 | 57 | +5.9 | 34 | -2.6 | 67 | +10.9 | 18 | 0.59 | 13 |
BYU | Ind | 5-2 | 8-4 | +6.8 | 56 | 41 | +0.3 | 77 | -5.6 | 42 | +9.2 | 25 | 0.59 | 15 |
NotreDame | Ind | 5-1 | 10-2 | +16.5 | 15 | 16 | +11.0 | 11 | -4.7 | 50 | +15.7 | 7 | 0.57 | 16 |
SMU | Amer | 6-0 | 10-2 | +9.5 | 43 | 30 | +7.0 | 30 | -1.9 | 73 | +10.0 | 22 | 0.45 | 24 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +21.5 | 7 | 4 | +5.3 | 38 | -15.0 | 3 | +18.0 | 4 | 0.42 | 25 |
AirForce | MWC | 6-1 | 9-3 | +10.2 | 40 | 43 | +2.8 | 56 | -6.7 | 31 | +10.2 | 20 | 0.42 | 26 |
Okie Lite is the 2015 Iowa of 2021. Prove me wrong.
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-5 | 2-10 | -18.2 | 125 | 127 | -10.4 | 124 | +8.4 | 120 | -7.4 | 110 | 4.59 | 42 |
Kansas | B12 | 1-5 | 1-11 | -18.1 | 124 | 121 | -8.8 | 120 | +10.0 | 123 | -7.9 | 113 | 7.89 | 13 |
Arizona | P12 | 0-6 | 1-11 | -13.8 | 116 | 110 | -9.3 | 122 | +3.7 | 103 | -12.5 | 122 | 3.60 | 51 |
Duke | ACC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -7.1 | 105 | 92 | -3.0 | 91 | +4.2 | 106 | -3.5 | 94 | 3.20 | 55 |
Colorado | P12 | 2-4 | 3-9 | -3.3 | 96 | 99 | -8.1 | 117 | -5.7 | 39 | -7.1 | 107 | 4.33 | 45 |
Missouri | SEC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -2.9 | 94 | 83 | +7.6 | 27 | +10.2 | 124 | -4.0 | 97 | 4.05 | 47 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-3 | 4-8 | -2.3 | 89 | 97 | -3.8 | 96 | -1.9 | 72 | -3.5 | 93 | 6.17 | 26 |
Illinois | B10 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.5 | 85 | 93 | -4.7 | 104 | -4.7 | 51 | -3.8 | 95 | 9.51 | 7 |
California | P12 | 1-5 | 4-8 | -0.0 | 84 | 82 | -1.0 | 82 | -2.6 | 66 | -10.2 | 117 | 2.08 | 65 |
I believe in your Lance Liepold... just maybe not this year.
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #4 Alabama | V | #63 MississippiState | W | 49 | 9 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #24 Purdue | V | #7 Iowa | W | 24 | 7 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #22 NorthCarolinaState | V | #65 BostonCollege | W | 33 | 7 |
8 | Tue | 2021-10-12 | #52 LouisianaLafayette | H | #50 AppalachianState | W | 41 | 13 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #33 Virginia | H | #105 Duke | W | 48 | 0 |
And of the year (so far):
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #1 Georgia | H | #45 UAB | W | 56 | 7 |
7 | Sat | 2021-10-09 | #1 Georgia | V | #10 Auburn | W | 34 | 10 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #4 Alabama | V | #63 MississippiState | W | 49 | 9 |
4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #2 Michigan | H | #80 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #26 Oregon | V | #3 OhioState | W | 35 | 28 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #24 Purdue | V | #7 Iowa | W | 24 | 7 |
6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #1 Georgia | H | #25 Arkansas | W | 37 | 0 |
6 | Fri | 2021-10-01 | #7 Iowa | V | #71 Maryland | W | 51 | 14 |
2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #2 Michigan | H | #44 WesternMichigan | W | 47 | 14 |
6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #3 OhioState | V | #56 Rutgers | W | 52 | 13 |
Great to see the B10 team show up on both sides of the list this year.
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 282.5 over 369 games, which would rank #24 (out of 51 ratings systems) here: [LINK]
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23 | #14 Clemson | V | #6 Pittsburgh | 30% | -7.5 |
Oct 23 | #26 Oregon | V | #39 UCLA | 49% | -0.3 |
Oct 23 | #33 OregonState | H | #30 Utah | 54% | 1.5 |
Oct 23 | #24 Purdue | H | #31 Wisconsin | 62% | 4.3 |
Oct 23 | #19 Tennessee | V | #4 Alabama | 21% | -12.0 |
Oct 23 | #23 NorthCarolinaState | V | #52 Miami | 61% | 3.9 |
Oct 23 | #53 Syracuse | V | #62 VirginiaTech | 47% | -1.0 |
Oct 23 | #12 IowaState | H | #38 OklahomaState | 73% | 9.1 |
Oct 20 | #60 AppalachianState | H | #21 CoastalCarolina | 34% | -5.8 |
Oct 23 | #20 WakeForest | V | #61 Army | 66% | 6.1 |
Oct 23 | #37 FresnoState | H | #54 Nevada | 65% | 5.6 |
Oct 23 | #69 Toledo | H | #44 WesternMichigan | 41% | -3.3 |
Oct 23 | #46 TCU | H | #59 WestVirginia | 62% | 4.3 |
Oct 23 | #48 LSU | V | #17 Mississippi | 25% | -9.7 |
Oct 23 | #47 Indiana | H | #3 OhioState | 15% | -15.6 |
Oct 23 | #65 BostonCollege | V | #58 Louisville | 39% | -4.2 |
Oct 23 | #64 GeorgiaTech | V | #34 Virginia | 29% | -7.9 |
Oct 23 | #42 KansasState | V | #79 TexasTech | 66% | 5.9 |
Oct 23 | #15 NotreDame | H | #57 USC | 79% | 12.1 |
Oct 23 | #56 BYU | V | #81 WashingtonState | 61% | 4.2 |
Oct 22 | #83 ColoradoState | V | #82 UtahState | 43% | -2.4 |
Oct 23 | #40 AirForce | H | #70 SanDiegoState | 74% | 9.2 |
Oct 23 | #71 Maryland | V | #35 Minnesota | 25% | -10.0 |
Oct 22 | #73 CentralFlorida | H | #86 Memphis | 66% | 5.9 |
Oct 23 | #77 SouthCarolina | V | #29 TexasAM | 21% | -12.0 |
Oct 23 | #93 LouisianaTech | H | #50 UTSA | 28% | -8.6 |
Oct 23 | #84 California | H | #96 Colorado | 65% | 5.6 |
Oct 23 | #88 MiamiOH | V | #66 BallState | 27% | -8.9 |
Oct 21 | #99 Charlotte | H | #74 FloridaAtlantic | 34% | -6.0 |
Oct 23 | #103 CentralMichigan | H | #80 NorthernIllinois | 36% | -5.1 |
Oct 21 | #107 SanJoseState | V | #110 UNLV | 50% | 0.2 |
Oct 23 | #90 EastCarolina | V | #41 Houston | 16% | -14.6 |
Oct 23 | #112 SouthFlorida | H | #111 Temple | 52% | 0.8 |
Oct 23 | #8 PennState | H | #85 Illinois | 93% | 23.6 |
Oct 21 | #43 SMU | H | #97 Tulane | 87% | 16.8 |
Oct 23 | #113 BowlingGreen | H | #95 EasternMichigan | 32% | -6.9 |
Oct 23 | #118 LouisianaMonroe | H | #91 SouthAlabama | 25% | -9.8 |
Oct 23 | #106 KentState | V | #122 Ohio | 68% | 6.8 |
Oct 23 | #2 Michigan | H | #89 Northwestern | 97% | 31.5 |
Oct 23 | #104 GeorgiaState | H | #114 TexasState | 74% | 9.2 |
Oct 22 | #68 Washington | V | #116 Arizona | 84% | 14.9 |
Oct 23 | #5 Cincinnati | V | #108 Navy | 96% | 28.8 |
Oct 23 | #120 FIU | H | #67 WesternKentucky | 13% | -17.2 |
Oct 21 | #119 ArkansasState | H | #51 LouisianaLafayette | 9% | -20.6 |
Oct 23 | #117 NorthTexas | H | #32 Liberty | 7% | -23.0 |
Oct 23 | #126 Akron | H | #87 Buffalo | 16% | -14.6 |
Oct 23 | #125 Vanderbilt | H | #63 MississippiState | 9% | -20.9 |
Oct 23 | #121 NewMexico | V | #78 Wyoming | 9% | -20.6 |
Oct 23 | #129 NewMexicoState | V | #101 Hawaii | 12% | -17.6 |
Oct 23 | #75 FloridaState | H | #127 Massachusetts | 94% | 24.0 |
Oct 22 | #92 MiddleTennessee | V | #131 Connecticut | 90% | 19.5 |
Oct 23 | #124 Kansas | H | #11 Oklahoma | 2% | -33.4 |
Oct 23 | #128 Rice | V | #45 UAB | 3% | -32.0 |
Oct 23 | #25 Arkansas | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 100% | 51.0 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23 | #24 Purdue | H | #31 Wisconsin | 62% | 4.3 |
Oct 23 | #47 Indiana | H | #3 OhioState | 15% | -15.6 |
Oct 23 | #71 Maryland | V | #35 Minnesota | 25% | -10.0 |
Oct 23 | #8 PennState | H | #85 Illinois | 93% | 23.6 |
Oct 23 | #2 Michigan | H | #89 Northwestern | 97% | 31.5 |
Wisconsin! Purdue! Feel the excitement!
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