FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 10

Better late than never!

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +36.3 1 1 +16.5 4 -19.5 1 +23.1 1 3.39 45
OhioState B10 6-1 10-2 +29.3 2 3 +23.0 1 -7.7 26 +14.2 9 8.06 11
Michigan B10 7-0 11-1 +27.6 3 2 +15.3 5 -12.1 5 +19.8 2 9.13 6
Alabama SEC 7-1 10-2 +26.6 4 4 +19.5 2 -8.0 22 +14.0 12 4.38 38
Pittsburgh ACC 6-1 10-2 +22.7 5 6 +18.6 3 -5.2 40 +10.9 17 2.44 54
Cincinnati Amer 7-0 12-0 +20.8 6 5 +11.6 9 -8.7 15 +16.4 5 -3.81 99
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +19.0 7 7 +4.8 41 -13.2 3 +16.5 4 6.69 18
WakeForest ACC 7-0 11-1 +18.3 8 20 +14.5 7 -3.3 57 +16.3 6 3.11 48
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +18.0 72 9 +7.8 23 -9.5 12 +15.3 8 9.28 5
NotreDame Ind 6-1 10-2 +17.4 10 15 +10.9 11 -5.8 37 +16.8 3 7.18 14
Mississippi SEC 6-1 10-2 +16.8 11 17 +12.5 8 -4.1 52 +13.3 13 5.16 31
Auburn SEC 5-2 8-4 +16.8 12 10 +9.2 16 -7.8 25 +9.7 23 6.50 20
Florida SEC 4-3 8-4 +16.6 13 13 +8.7 19 -8.9 14 +4.5 47 4.35 39
IowaState B12 5-2 8-4 +16.5 14 12 +8.1 21 -8.4 18 +10.1 20 5.70 26
PennState B10 5-2 7-5 +16.5 15 8 +4.1 45 -12.1 6 +10.9 18 11.29 2
Clemson ACC 4-3 8-4 +15.1 16 14 -4.9 100 -19.5 2 +5.7 41 5.42 30
Texas B12 4-3 7-5 +14.9 17 16 +15.0 6 -0.4 80 +9.1 24 4.71 35
Nebraska B10 3-5 5-7 +14.6 18 22 +5.8 35 -10.2 10 -0.4 74 9.64 4
Baylor B12 6-1 9-3 +14.4 19 18 +8.0 22 -5.8 36 +12.8 14 1.04 66
TexasAM SEC 6-2 8-4 +14.0 20 29 +2.3 58 -11.5 7 +8.9 25 1.71 58
Oklahoma B12 8-0 10-2 +13.8 21 11 +9.7 14 -3.3 56 +14.1 11 2.56 53
Wisconsin B10 4-3 7-5 +13.7 22 31 +0.4 71 -12.6 4 +10.5 19 10.68 3
CoastalCarolina Sun 6-1 11-1 +13.7 23 21 +9.1 17 -5.0 43 +6.2 39 -11.08 131
Tennessee SEC 4-4 6-6 +12.6 24 19 +8.8 18 -5.0 44 +1.2 64 3.75 42
Oregon P12 6-1 10-2 +12.6 25 26 +6.1 30 -6.2 32 +9.9 21 1.56 60
NorthCarolinaState ACC 5-2 8-4 +12.4 26 23 +3.0 55 -9.8 11 +4.3 49 4.45 36
BoiseState MWC 3-4 7-5 +11.9 27 28 +5.7 37 -6.6 29 +5.4 46 2.41 55
Virginia ACC 6-2 8-4 +11.9 28 34 +9.3 15 -2.5 63 +8.8 26 5.86 24
Arkansas SEC 5-3 7-5 +11.7 29 25 +5.6 38 -5.9 34 +8.2 28 5.68 27
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +11.6 30 27 +1.2 67 -9.1 13 +14.1 10 1.45 61
OregonState P12 5-2 8-4 +11.3 31 33 +10.4 12 -1.0 77 +7.6 33 1.66 59
Minnesota B10 5-2 8-4 +11.1 32 35 +4.1 44 -6.9 27 +7.1 37 5.62 28
OklahomaState B12 6-1 9-3 +11.0 33 38 -1.5 81 -10.7 9 +16.2 7 4.09 41
Purdue B10 4-3 6-6 +10.9 34 24 -0.5 77 -11.0 8 +7.6 34 9.06 7
UTSA CUSA 8-0 11-1 +10.7 35 50 +5.3 40 -4.6 48 +12.0 16 -9.28 129
Louisville ACC 4-3 7-5 +9.9 36 58 +4.6 42 -5.3 38 +5.7 43 6.16 22
SMU Amer 7-0 10-2 +9.7 37 43 +7.6 24 -1.8 70 +8.0 31 -3.44 96
Utah P12 4-3 8-4 +9.6 38 30 +7.3 25 -2.4 65 +5.5 45 1.41 62
KansasState B12 4-3 7-5 +9.5 39 42 +0.5 70 -8.5 17 +8.1 30 5.02 33
Liberty Ind 6-2 9-3 +9.5 40 32 +3.6 49 -6.2 31 +3.7 54 -4.52 106
FresnoState MWC 6-2 9-3 +9.4 41 37 +5.8 34 -3.6 55 +5.7 42 -4.57 107
ArizonaState P12 5-2 8-4 +9.0 42 36 +3.2 53 -5.9 33 +4.1 51 -2.05 82
NorthCarolina ACC 4-3 6-6 +8.9 43 49 +9.8 13 +0.1 84 +1.3 63 6.53 19
Houston Amer 6-1 10-2 +8.8 44 41 +2.2 60 -6.3 30 +7.4 35 -9.74 130
AirForce MWC 6-2 9-3 +8.7 45 40 +2.3 57 -5.9 35 +8.1 29 -1.79 79
UCLA P12 5-3 8-4 +8.6 46 39 +8.2 20 -0.8 78 +4.1 52 1.89 57
Syracuse ACC 4-4 6-6 +8.5 47 53 +6.6 28 -2.9 59 -1.1 80 5.81 25
Miami ACC 3-4 6-6 +8.1 48 52 +6.0 32 -2.7 60 +1.9 61 6.94 15
AppalachianState Sun 5-2 9-3 +7.8 49 60 +3.2 54 -4.3 50 +7.0 38 -5.82 116
Nevada MWC 5-2 8-4 +7.7 50 54 +6.5 29 -1.4 74 +4.4 48 -1.82 81
LSU SEC 4-4 6-6 +7.6 51 48 +6.0 33 -1.8 68 +3.9 53 7.49 12
Rutgers B10 3-4 5-7 +7.2 52 55 -0.4 75 -8.1 19 +0.5 69 7.34 13
WesternMichigan MAC 5-3 8-4 +7.2 53 44 +5.3 39 -1.3 75 +7.7 32 0.20 72
WestVirginia B12 3-4 5-7 +6.9 54 59 -0.5 78 -8.1 20 -0.2 73 3.24 47
MississippiState SEC 4-3 6-6 +6.4 55 63 +1.8 62 -4.5 49 +4.1 50 6.48 21
FloridaState ACC 3-4 5-7 +6.2 56 75 +3.3 52 -3.7 54 -0.7 76 6.87 16
BYU Ind 6-2 9-3 +6.1 57 56 -0.1 74 -5.2 39 +9.7 22 -0.31 73
SanDiegoState MWC 7-0 10-2 +6.0 58 70 -3.4 92 -7.8 24 +12.5 15 -4.27 104
Army Ind 4-3 8-4 +5.9 59 61 +6.7 27 +0.6 89 +2.6 58 -3.23 93
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-4 5-7 +5.2 60 64 +3.8 47 -2.0 67 -0.7 75 8.41 9
VirginiaTech ACC 3-4 5-7 +5.1 61 62 -2.8 90 -8.7 16 -2.5 88 5.58 29
Toledo MAC 4-4 7-5 +4.9 62 69 -2.4 87 -7.8 23 -0.8 77 -7.42 125
TCU B12 3-4 5-7 +4.8 63 46 +5.7 36 +0.2 85 -1.5 84 4.15 40
WesternKentucky CUSA 3-4 7-5 +4.2 64 67 +11.3 10 +5.7 112 -4.8 98 -2.85 87
LouisianaLafayette Sun 6-1 10-2 +3.9 65 51 -2.0 86 -5.1 41 +7.3 36 -6.80 122
USC P12 3-4 6-6 +3.9 66 57 +6.1 31 +1.4 92 -1.4 82 2.56 52
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 4-3 7-5 +3.8 67 74 +0.2 72 -4.2 51 -1.7 86 -4.12 102
CentralFlorida Amer 4-3 8-4 +3.5 68 73 +4.5 43 +0.8 90 +1.1 65 -4.11 101
Indiana B10 2-5 4-8 +3.3 69 47 -1.4 80 -4.7 47 +1.4 62 12.98 1
UAB CUSA 5-3 7-5 +3.1 70 45 -1.9 85 -4.9 45 +2.3 60 -1.51 77
Marshall CUSA 4-3 7-5 +3.1 71 72 +3.6 48 -0.7 79 -5.6 103 -6.11 118
Maryland B10 4-3 5-7 +2.2 72 71 +2.0 61 +0.5 88 +5.6 44 8.12 10
Illinois B10 3-5 4-8 +2.2 73 85 -4.7 99 -6.9 28 +0.9 66 8.86 8
BallState MAC 4-4 7-5 +1.2 74 66 +1.1 68 +0.2 86 +2.6 59 -0.65 75
Stanford P12 3-4 5-7 +0.7 75 76 +0.6 69 -0.3 82 -0.2 72 4.95 34
BostonCollege ACC 4-3 6-6 +0.7 76 65 -1.8 83 -2.7 61 -0.9 79 1.05 65
NorthernIllinois MAC 6-2 8-4 +0.3 77 80 +3.9 46 +5.0 110 +8.7 27 -0.81 76
TexasTech B12 5-3 6-6 +0.2 78 79 +3.5 50 +3.4 98 +0.7 67 3.07 49
Washington P12 3-4 5-7 +0.1 79 68 -7.0 111 -8.1 21 -6.0 105 1.20 63
ColoradoState MWC 3-4 5-7 +0.1 80 83 -1.9 84 -2.5 64 -2.6 89 -0.54 74
Buffalo MAC 4-4 6-6 -0.0 81 87 +1.3 66 +0.3 87 -6.2 107 -5.88 117
UtahState MWC 5-2 9-3 -0.2 82 82 +3.0 56 +4.2 104 +6.0 40 -4.68 109
California P12 2-5 4-8 -0.3 83 84 -1.0 79 -2.5 62 -11.5 115 0.42 70
WashingtonState P12 4-4 6-6 -0.7 84 81 -3.7 96 -3.2 58 -1.3 81 1.12 64
MiamiOH MAC 4-4 7-5 -0.8 85 88 -6.0 106 -5.1 42 +0.4 70 -5.75 114
SouthCarolina SEC 4-4 5-7 -1.0 86 77 -3.4 94 -1.8 69 +2.8 56 5.14 32
EasternMichigan MAC 5-3 7-5 -1.4 87 95 +2.3 59 +3.9 102 +0.5 68 -6.38 120
EastCarolina Amer 3-4 6-6 -1.8 88 90 -1.5 82 -0.3 81 -4.2 97 -2.26 84
Memphis Amer 4-4 6-6 -2.2 89 86 +1.5 63 +3.5 99 -3.3 91 -2.32 85
MiddleTennessee CUSA 3-4 6-6 -2.3 90 92 +1.3 65 +3.0 96 -5.2 100 -6.17 119
Northwestern B10 3-4 4-8 -2.7 91 89 -4.6 98 -2.2 66 -3.6 94 5.99 23
Missouri SEC 3-4 5-7 -3.9 92 94 +6.8 26 +10.3 123 -5.4 101 2.61 50
Wyoming MWC 4-3 6-6 -4.8 93 78 -6.8 109 -1.5 72 +0.2 71 -3.42 95
Tulsa Amer 3-4 5-7 -5.1 94 98 -3.4 93 +2.0 94 -1.7 85 0.64 69
LouisianaTech CUSA 2-5 5-7 -5.3 95 93 -0.5 76 +4.3 105 -7.1 108 -3.95 100
UTEP CUSA 6-1 8-4 -5.9 96 102 -8.7 116 -1.8 71 +3.1 55 -7.92 127
Navy Amer 1-6 3-9 -6.1 97 108 -6.6 108 -1.3 76 -8.0 110 4.41 37
Hawaii MWC 4-4 6-7 -6.2 98 101 -2.5 89 +3.8 100 -3.0 90 -3.49 97
CentralMichigan MAC 4-4 5-7 -6.8 99 103 -2.5 88 +4.1 103 -6.0 106 -4.67 108
Troy Sun 4-3 6-6 -7.2 100 100 -8.7 118 -1.5 73 -3.4 92 -6.66 121
SouthAlabama Sun 4-3 6-6 -7.2 101 91 -5.2 102 +1.8 93 -5.5 102 -7.39 124
SanJoseState MWC 4-4 5-7 -7.3 102 107 -11.2 123 -4.0 53 -3.4 93 -3.13 92
OldDominion CUSA 1-6 3-9 -7.7 103 109 -6.3 107 -0.1 83 -13.1 120 -2.99 88
Duke ACC 3-4 4-8 -7.8 104 105 -3.7 95 +4.3 106 -4.1 96 3.60 43
KentState MAC 4-4 6-6 -8.0 105 106 +0.2 73 +8.9 119 -1.4 83 -5.60 112
Colorado P12 2-5 3-9 -8.1 106 96 -11.5 125 -4.9 46 -12.8 118 3.32 46
GeorgiaState Sun 3-4 5-7 -8.4 107 104 -5.1 101 +3.8 101 -1.9 87 -1.58 78
Tulane Amer 1-6 3-9 -8.6 108 97 +3.4 51 +11.7 125 -8.5 111 0.31 71
Charlotte CUSA 4-3 6-6 -8.7 109 99 -4.4 97 +4.4 107 -4.8 99 -6.93 123
SouthFlorida Amer 2-5 3-9 -11.8 110 112 -5.6 104 +6.2 114 -7.4 109 0.67 68
UNLV MWC 0-7 1-11 -12.1 111 110 -8.2 113 +2.9 95 -13.7 124 2.61 51
NewMexico MWC 3-5 4-8 -12.8 112 121 -12.3 128 +0.8 91 -3.9 95 -1.80 80
LouisianaMonroe Sun 4-3 5-7 -13.1 113 118 -5.5 103 +9.5 121 +2.7 57 -3.24 94
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 2-5 3-9 -14.5 114 115 -5.9 105 +8.3 116 -11.0 114 -3.02 89
NorthTexas CUSA 1-6 3-9 -15.2 115 117 -8.4 114 +5.7 111 -15.8 127 -5.23 111
Arizona P12 0-7 1-11 -15.6 116 116 -9.7 120 +4.7 109 -16.4 128 2.24 56
Temple Amer 3-4 4-8 -15.9 117 111 -7.9 112 +8.7 118 -5.7 104 -3.60 98
BowlingGreen MAC 2-6 3-9 -16.1 118 113 -12.5 129 +3.0 97 -11.6 117 -4.80 110
ArkansasState Sun 1-6 2-10 -16.2 119 119 +1.4 64 +17.1 131 -15.4 126 -4.38 105
TexasState Sun 2-5 4-8 -16.3 120 114 -8.5 115 +7.6 115 -11.5 116 -7.55 126
Ohio MAC 1-7 2-10 -17.6 121 122 -10.2 121 +6.1 113 -17.7 129 -5.82 115
Kansas B12 1-6 1-11 -17.9 122 124 -9.2 119 +9.2 120 -8.6 112 6.78 17
Rice CUSA 3-4 4-8 -18.3 123 128 -11.4 124 +8.5 117 -0.9 78 -3.12 91
FIU CUSA 1-6 2-10 -18.4 124 120 -6.8 110 +10.4 124 -19.4 131 -8.36 128
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-6 2-10 -18.5 125 123 -13.2 130 +4.7 108 -13.6 123 -5.63 113
NewMexicoState Ind 1-7 2-10 -20.0 126 129 -3.3 91 +16.8 130 -14.0 125 -3.07 90
Vanderbilt SEC 2-6 2-10 -21.6 127 125 -12.1 127 +10.1 122 -9.6 113 3.43 44
Akron MAC 2-6 2-10 -21.9 128 126 -8.7 117 +13.5 127 -13.3 121 -2.12 83
FCS Z_FCS 10-98 11-106 -24.2 129 130 -11.8 126 +12.8 126 -13.1 119 0.94 67
Massachusetts Ind 1-6 2-10 -24.3 130 127 -10.9 122 +13.9 129 -13.4 122 -2.48 86
Connecticut Ind 1-8 1-11 -28.5 131 131 -14.7 131 +13.5 128 -19.0 130 -4.19 103

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 6-1 10-2 +29.3 2 3 +23.0 1 -7.7 26 +14.2 9 8.06 11
Michigan B10 7-0 11-1 +27.6 3 2 +15.3 5 -12.1 5 +19.8 2 9.13 6
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +19.0 7 7 +4.8 41 -13.2 3 +16.5 4 6.69 18
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +18.0 72 9 +7.8 23 -9.5 12 +15.3 8 9.28 5
PennState B10 5-2 7-5 +16.5 15 8 +4.1 45 -12.1 6 +10.9 18 11.29 2
Nebraska B10 3-5 5-7 +14.6 18 22 +5.8 35 -10.2 10 -0.4 74 9.64 4
Wisconsin B10 4-3 7-5 +13.7 22 31 +0.4 71 -12.6 4 +10.5 19 10.68 3
Minnesota B10 5-2 8-4 +11.1 32 35 +4.1 44 -6.9 27 +7.1 37 5.62 28
Purdue B10 4-3 6-6 +10.9 34 24 -0.5 77 -11.0 8 +7.6 34 9.06 7
Rutgers B10 3-4 5-7 +7.2 52 55 -0.4 75 -8.1 19 +0.5 69 7.34 13
Indiana B10 2-5 4-8 +3.3 69 47 -1.4 80 -4.7 47 +1.4 62 12.98 1
Maryland B10 4-3 5-7 +2.2 72 71 +2.0 61 +0.5 88 +5.6 44 8.12 10
Illinois B10 3-5 4-8 +2.2 73 85 -4.7 99 -6.9 28 +0.9 66 8.86 8
Northwestern B10 3-4 4-8 -2.7 91 89 -4.6 98 -2.2 66 -3.6 94 5.99 23

Slowly crawling back into the rankings, at least until Graham Mertz throws another couple pick-sixes

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +36.3 1 1 +16.5 4 -19.5 1 +23.1 1 0.78 1
Cincinnati Amer 7-0 12-0 +20.8 6 5 +11.6 9 -8.7 15 +16.4 5 0.65 2
UTSA CUSA 8-0 11-1 +10.7 35 50 +5.3 40 -4.6 48 +12.0 16 0.56 3
Michigan B10 7-0 11-1 +27.6 3 2 +15.3 5 -12.1 5 +19.8 2 0.23 4
WakeForest ACC 7-0 11-1 +18.3 8 20 +14.5 7 -3.3 57 +16.3 6 0.21 5
Oklahoma B12 8-0 10-2 +13.8 21 11 +9.7 14 -3.3 56 +14.1 11 0.09 6
SanDiegoState MWC 7-0 10-2 +6.0 58 70 -3.4 92 -7.8 24 +12.5 15 0.06 7
SMU Amer 7-0 10-2 +9.7 37 43 +7.6 24 -1.8 70 +8.0 31 0.04 8
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +18.0 72 9 +7.8 23 -9.5 12 +15.3 8 0.02 9

Probably should have left Sparty off this list, in all honesty.

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Arizona P12 0-7 1-11 -15.6 116 116 -9.7 120 +4.7 109 -16.4 128 0.57 1
UNLV MWC 0-7 1-11 -12.1 111 110 -8.2 113 +2.9 95 -13.7 124 0.24 2

Man, Jedd Fisch is not off to an awesome start.

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 7-0 12-0 +36.3 1 1 +16.5 4 -19.5 1 +23.1 1 0.98 1
Michigan B10 7-0 11-1 +27.6 3 2 +15.3 5 -12.1 5 +19.8 2 0.66 5
WakeForest ACC 7-0 11-1 +18.3 8 20 +14.5 7 -3.3 57 +16.3 6 0.62 6
Alabama SEC 7-1 10-2 +26.6 4 4 +19.5 2 -8.0 22 +14.0 12 0.55 7
Pittsburgh ACC 6-1 10-2 +22.7 5 6 +18.6 3 -5.2 40 +10.9 17 0.46 8
Oklahoma B12 8-0 10-2 +13.8 21 11 +9.7 14 -3.3 56 +14.1 11 0.41 9
NotreDame Ind 6-1 10-2 +17.4 10 15 +10.9 11 -5.8 37 +16.8 3 0.30 12
OhioState B10 6-1 10-2 +29.3 2 3 +23.0 1 -7.7 26 +14.2 9 0.24 14
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +19.0 7 7 +4.8 41 -13.2 3 +16.5 4 0.20 15
Oregon P12 6-1 10-2 +12.6 25 26 +6.1 30 -6.2 32 +9.9 21 0.18 16
MichiganState B10 7-0 10-2 +18.0 9 72 +7.8 23 -9.5 12 +15.3 8 0.17 17
Mississippi SEC 6-1 10-2 +16.8 11 17 +12.5 8 -4.1 52 +13.3 13 0.15 19
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +11.6 30 27 +1.2 67 -9.1 13 +14.1 10 0.14 20
OklahomaState B12 6-1 9-3 +11.0 33 38 -1.5 81 -10.7 9 +16.2 7 0.13 21
Baylor B12 6-1 9-3 +14.4 19 18 +8.0 22 -5.8 36 +12.8 14 0.11 22

1 - Wake Forest, 2 - Pittsburgh, 3 - Kentucky, 4 - Baylor

Give the people what they want!

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
OklahomaState B12 6-1 9-3 +11.0 33 38 -1.5 81 -10.7 9 +16.2 7 1.06 3
SanDiegoState MWC 7-0 10-2 +6.0 58 70 -3.4 92 -7.8 24 +12.5 15 1.04 5
Kentucky SEC 6-1 10-2 +11.6 30 27 +1.2 67 -9.1 13 +14.1 10 0.76 8
BYU Ind 6-2 9-3 +6.1 57 56 -0.1 74 -5.2 39 +9.7 22 0.69 10
UTSA CUSA 8-0 11-1 +10.7 35 50 +5.3 40 -4.6 48 +12.0 16 0.58 13
NotreDame Ind 6-1 10-2 +17.4 10 15 +10.9 11 -5.8 37 +16.8 3 0.58 14
Oklahoma B12 8-0 10-2 +13.8 21 11 +9.7 14 -3.3 56 +14.1 11 0.56 16
WakeForest ACC 7-0 11-1 +18.3 8 20 +14.5 7 -3.3 57 +16.3 6 0.45 25
Iowa B10 6-1 10-2 +19.0 7 7 +4.8 41 -13.2 3 +16.5 4 0.41 26
Baylor B12 6-1 9-3 +14.4 19 18 +8.0 22 -5.8 36 +12.8 14 0.36 27

[insert comments as appropriate]

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-6 2-10 -21.6 127 125 -12.1 127 +10.1 122 -9.6 113 3.43 44
Kansas B12 1-6 1-11 -17.9 122 124 -9.2 119 +9.2 120 -8.6 112 6.78 17
Arizona P12 0-7 1-11 -15.6 116 116 -9.7 120 +4.7 109 -16.4 128 2.24 56
Colorado P12 2-5 3-9 -8.1 106 96 -11.5 125 -4.9 46 -12.8 118 3.32 46
Duke ACC 3-4 4-8 -7.8 104 105 -3.7 95 +4.3 106 -4.1 96 3.60 43
Missouri SEC 3-4 5-7 -3.9 92 94 +6.8 26 +10.3 123 -5.4 101 2.61 50
Northwestern B10 3-4 4-8 -2.7 91 89 -4.6 98 -2.2 66 -3.6 94 5.99 23

Man, Colorado looks like a worse version of Wisconsin/Iowa.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #2 OhioState V #69 Indiana W 54 7
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #22 Wisconsin V #34 Purdue W 30 13
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #4 Alabama H #24 Tennessee W 52 24
9 Thu 2021-10-21 #67 FloridaAtlantic V #109 Charlotte W 38 9
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #62 Toledo H #53 WesternMichigan W 34 15

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #4 Alabama V #55 MississippiState W 49 9
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #25 Oregon V #2 OhioState W 35 28
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #3 Michigan H #77 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #12 Auburn W 34 10
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #70 UAB W 56 7
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #2 OhioState V #69 Indiana W 54 7
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #29 Arkansas W 37 0
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #4 Alabama H #11 Mississippi W 42 21
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #34 Purdue V #7 Iowa W 24 7
6 Fri 2021-10-01 #7 Iowa V #72 Maryland W 51 14

[insert comments as appropriate]

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 279.5 over 421 games, which would rank #24 (out of 54 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 30 #3 Michigan V #72 MichiganState 69% 7.2
Oct 30 #12 Auburn H #11 Mississippi 56% 2.2
Oct 30 #7 Iowa V #22 Wisconsin 58% 3.0
Oct 30 #19 Baylor H #17 Texas 55% 1.7
Oct 30 #44 Houston H #37 SMU 54% 1.5
Oct 30 #2 OhioState H #15 PennState 84% 15.1
Oct 30 #13 Florida N #1 Georgia 10% -19.5
Oct 30 #18 Nebraska H #34 Purdue 66% 6.0
Oct 30 #41 FresnoState V #58 SanDiegoState 53% 1.1
Oct 30 #36 Louisville V #26 NorthCarolinaState 37% -4.8
Oct 30 #30 Kentucky V #55 MississippiState 58% 2.8
Oct 30 #46 UCLA V #38 Utah 41% -3.2
Oct 30 #28 Virginia V #57 BYU 59% 3.4
Oct 30 #14 IowaState V #54 WestVirginia 69% 7.2
Oct 30 #60 GeorgiaTech H #61 VirginiaTech 57% 2.4
Oct 30 #43 NorthCarolina V #10 NotreDame 23% -10.8
Oct 30 #52 Rutgers V #73 Illinois 57% 2.7
Oct 30 #69 Indiana V #72 Maryland 47% -1.2
Oct 30 #39 KansasState H #63 TCU 69% 7.0
Oct 30 #16 Clemson H #56 FloridaState 78% 11.1
Oct 30 #48 Miami V #5 Pittsburgh 13% -16.8
Oct 30 #75 Stanford H #79 Washington 58% 2.9
Oct 30 #27 BoiseState V #80 ColoradoState 74% 9.4
Oct 30 #83 California H #31 OregonState 26% -9.2
Oct 30 #76 BostonCollege V #47 Syracuse 25% -10.0
Oct 30 #93 Wyoming V #102 SanJoseState 50% 0.1
Oct 30 #103 OldDominion H #95 LouisianaTech 50% 0.0
Oct 30 #32 Minnesota V #91 Northwestern 78% 11.4
Oct 30 #84 WashingtonState V #42 ArizonaState 21% -11.9
Oct 29 #97 Navy V #94 Tulsa 41% -3.3
Oct 30 #21 Oklahoma H #78 TexasTech 85% 15.8
Oct 30 #82 UtahState H #98 Hawaii 72% 8.2
Oct 30 #67 FloridaAtlantic H #96 UTEP 79% 11.9
Oct 30 #114 GeorgiaSouthern H #107 GeorgiaState 40% -3.7
Oct 30 #109 Charlotte V #64 WesternKentucky 16% -15.1
Oct 30 #115 NorthTexas V #123 Rice 52% 0.8
Oct 28 #88 EastCarolina H #110 SouthFlorida 80% 12.2
Oct 28 #23 CoastalCarolina H #100 Troy 93% 23.0
Oct 30 #25 Oregon H #106 Colorado 93% 22.8
Oct 30 #6 Cincinnati V #108 Tulane 95% 26.8
Oct 30 #119 ArkansasState V #101 SouthAlabama 22% -11.2
Oct 30 #8 WakeForest H #104 Duke 96% 28.2
Oct 30 #68 CentralFlorida V #117 Temple 87% 16.9
Oct 29 #50 Nevada H #111 UNLV 92% 22.0
Oct 30 #49 AppalachianState H #113 LouisianaMonroe 93% 23.0
Oct 30 #118 BowlingGreen V #81 Buffalo 11% -18.2
Oct 30 #116 Arizona V #66 USC 8% -21.6
Oct 30 #92 Missouri V #127 Vanderbilt 85% 15.2
Oct 30 #65 LouisianaLafayette H #120 TexasState 92% 22.4
Oct 30 #90 MiddleTennessee H #125 SouthernMississippi 89% 18.4
Oct 30 #124 FIU V #71 Marshall 7% -23.6
Oct 30 #122 Kansas V #33 OklahomaState 3% -31.0
Oct 30 #40 Liberty H #130 Massachusetts 98% 35.8

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 30 #3 Michigan V #72 MichiganState 69% 7.2
Oct 30 #7 Iowa V #22 Wisconsin 58% 3.0
Oct 30 #2 OhioState H #15 PennState 84% 15.1
Oct 30 #18 Nebraska H #34 Purdue 66% 6.0
Oct 30 #52 Rutgers V #73 Illinois 57% 2.7
Oct 30 #69 Indiana V #72 Maryland 47% -1.2
Oct 30 #32 Minnesota V #91 Northwestern 78% 11.4

Do not, under any circumstances, submit yourself to the Heartland Trophy game. It promises to be awful.