Better late than never!
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +36.3 | 1 | 1 | +16.5 | 4 | -19.5 | 1 | +23.1 | 1 | 3.39 | 45 |
OhioState | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +29.3 | 2 | 3 | +23.0 | 1 | -7.7 | 26 | +14.2 | 9 | 8.06 | 11 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +27.6 | 3 | 2 | +15.3 | 5 | -12.1 | 5 | +19.8 | 2 | 9.13 | 6 |
Alabama | SEC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +26.6 | 4 | 4 | +19.5 | 2 | -8.0 | 22 | +14.0 | 12 | 4.38 | 38 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +22.7 | 5 | 6 | +18.6 | 3 | -5.2 | 40 | +10.9 | 17 | 2.44 | 54 |
Cincinnati | Amer | 7-0 | 12-0 | +20.8 | 6 | 5 | +11.6 | 9 | -8.7 | 15 | +16.4 | 5 | -3.81 | 99 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +19.0 | 7 | 7 | +4.8 | 41 | -13.2 | 3 | +16.5 | 4 | 6.69 | 18 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-0 | 11-1 | +18.3 | 8 | 20 | +14.5 | 7 | -3.3 | 57 | +16.3 | 6 | 3.11 | 48 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +18.0 | 72 | 9 | +7.8 | 23 | -9.5 | 12 | +15.3 | 8 | 9.28 | 5 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-1 | 10-2 | +17.4 | 10 | 15 | +10.9 | 11 | -5.8 | 37 | +16.8 | 3 | 7.18 | 14 |
Mississippi | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +16.8 | 11 | 17 | +12.5 | 8 | -4.1 | 52 | +13.3 | 13 | 5.16 | 31 |
Auburn | SEC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +16.8 | 12 | 10 | +9.2 | 16 | -7.8 | 25 | +9.7 | 23 | 6.50 | 20 |
Florida | SEC | 4-3 | 8-4 | +16.6 | 13 | 13 | +8.7 | 19 | -8.9 | 14 | +4.5 | 47 | 4.35 | 39 |
IowaState | B12 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +16.5 | 14 | 12 | +8.1 | 21 | -8.4 | 18 | +10.1 | 20 | 5.70 | 26 |
PennState | B10 | 5-2 | 7-5 | +16.5 | 15 | 8 | +4.1 | 45 | -12.1 | 6 | +10.9 | 18 | 11.29 | 2 |
Clemson | ACC | 4-3 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 16 | 14 | -4.9 | 100 | -19.5 | 2 | +5.7 | 41 | 5.42 | 30 |
Texas | B12 | 4-3 | 7-5 | +14.9 | 17 | 16 | +15.0 | 6 | -0.4 | 80 | +9.1 | 24 | 4.71 | 35 |
Nebraska | B10 | 3-5 | 5-7 | +14.6 | 18 | 22 | +5.8 | 35 | -10.2 | 10 | -0.4 | 74 | 9.64 | 4 |
Baylor | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 19 | 18 | +8.0 | 22 | -5.8 | 36 | +12.8 | 14 | 1.04 | 66 |
TexasAM | SEC | 6-2 | 8-4 | +14.0 | 20 | 29 | +2.3 | 58 | -11.5 | 7 | +8.9 | 25 | 1.71 | 58 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.8 | 21 | 11 | +9.7 | 14 | -3.3 | 56 | +14.1 | 11 | 2.56 | 53 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 4-3 | 7-5 | +13.7 | 22 | 31 | +0.4 | 71 | -12.6 | 4 | +10.5 | 19 | 10.68 | 3 |
CoastalCarolina | Sun | 6-1 | 11-1 | +13.7 | 23 | 21 | +9.1 | 17 | -5.0 | 43 | +6.2 | 39 | -11.08 | 131 |
Tennessee | SEC | 4-4 | 6-6 | +12.6 | 24 | 19 | +8.8 | 18 | -5.0 | 44 | +1.2 | 64 | 3.75 | 42 |
Oregon | P12 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +12.6 | 25 | 26 | +6.1 | 30 | -6.2 | 32 | +9.9 | 21 | 1.56 | 60 |
NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +12.4 | 26 | 23 | +3.0 | 55 | -9.8 | 11 | +4.3 | 49 | 4.45 | 36 |
BoiseState | MWC | 3-4 | 7-5 | +11.9 | 27 | 28 | +5.7 | 37 | -6.6 | 29 | +5.4 | 46 | 2.41 | 55 |
Virginia | ACC | 6-2 | 8-4 | +11.9 | 28 | 34 | +9.3 | 15 | -2.5 | 63 | +8.8 | 26 | 5.86 | 24 |
Arkansas | SEC | 5-3 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 29 | 25 | +5.6 | 38 | -5.9 | 34 | +8.2 | 28 | 5.68 | 27 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +11.6 | 30 | 27 | +1.2 | 67 | -9.1 | 13 | +14.1 | 10 | 1.45 | 61 |
OregonState | P12 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +11.3 | 31 | 33 | +10.4 | 12 | -1.0 | 77 | +7.6 | 33 | 1.66 | 59 |
Minnesota | B10 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +11.1 | 32 | 35 | +4.1 | 44 | -6.9 | 27 | +7.1 | 37 | 5.62 | 28 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +11.0 | 33 | 38 | -1.5 | 81 | -10.7 | 9 | +16.2 | 7 | 4.09 | 41 |
Purdue | B10 | 4-3 | 6-6 | +10.9 | 34 | 24 | -0.5 | 77 | -11.0 | 8 | +7.6 | 34 | 9.06 | 7 |
UTSA | CUSA | 8-0 | 11-1 | +10.7 | 35 | 50 | +5.3 | 40 | -4.6 | 48 | +12.0 | 16 | -9.28 | 129 |
Louisville | ACC | 4-3 | 7-5 | +9.9 | 36 | 58 | +4.6 | 42 | -5.3 | 38 | +5.7 | 43 | 6.16 | 22 |
SMU | Amer | 7-0 | 10-2 | +9.7 | 37 | 43 | +7.6 | 24 | -1.8 | 70 | +8.0 | 31 | -3.44 | 96 |
Utah | P12 | 4-3 | 8-4 | +9.6 | 38 | 30 | +7.3 | 25 | -2.4 | 65 | +5.5 | 45 | 1.41 | 62 |
KansasState | B12 | 4-3 | 7-5 | +9.5 | 39 | 42 | +0.5 | 70 | -8.5 | 17 | +8.1 | 30 | 5.02 | 33 |
Liberty | Ind | 6-2 | 9-3 | +9.5 | 40 | 32 | +3.6 | 49 | -6.2 | 31 | +3.7 | 54 | -4.52 | 106 |
FresnoState | MWC | 6-2 | 9-3 | +9.4 | 41 | 37 | +5.8 | 34 | -3.6 | 55 | +5.7 | 42 | -4.57 | 107 |
ArizonaState | P12 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +9.0 | 42 | 36 | +3.2 | 53 | -5.9 | 33 | +4.1 | 51 | -2.05 | 82 |
NorthCarolina | ACC | 4-3 | 6-6 | +8.9 | 43 | 49 | +9.8 | 13 | +0.1 | 84 | +1.3 | 63 | 6.53 | 19 |
Houston | Amer | 6-1 | 10-2 | +8.8 | 44 | 41 | +2.2 | 60 | -6.3 | 30 | +7.4 | 35 | -9.74 | 130 |
AirForce | MWC | 6-2 | 9-3 | +8.7 | 45 | 40 | +2.3 | 57 | -5.9 | 35 | +8.1 | 29 | -1.79 | 79 |
UCLA | P12 | 5-3 | 8-4 | +8.6 | 46 | 39 | +8.2 | 20 | -0.8 | 78 | +4.1 | 52 | 1.89 | 57 |
Syracuse | ACC | 4-4 | 6-6 | +8.5 | 47 | 53 | +6.6 | 28 | -2.9 | 59 | -1.1 | 80 | 5.81 | 25 |
Miami | ACC | 3-4 | 6-6 | +8.1 | 48 | 52 | +6.0 | 32 | -2.7 | 60 | +1.9 | 61 | 6.94 | 15 |
AppalachianState | Sun | 5-2 | 9-3 | +7.8 | 49 | 60 | +3.2 | 54 | -4.3 | 50 | +7.0 | 38 | -5.82 | 116 |
Nevada | MWC | 5-2 | 8-4 | +7.7 | 50 | 54 | +6.5 | 29 | -1.4 | 74 | +4.4 | 48 | -1.82 | 81 |
LSU | SEC | 4-4 | 6-6 | +7.6 | 51 | 48 | +6.0 | 33 | -1.8 | 68 | +3.9 | 53 | 7.49 | 12 |
Rutgers | B10 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +7.2 | 52 | 55 | -0.4 | 75 | -8.1 | 19 | +0.5 | 69 | 7.34 | 13 |
WesternMichigan | MAC | 5-3 | 8-4 | +7.2 | 53 | 44 | +5.3 | 39 | -1.3 | 75 | +7.7 | 32 | 0.20 | 72 |
WestVirginia | B12 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +6.9 | 54 | 59 | -0.5 | 78 | -8.1 | 20 | -0.2 | 73 | 3.24 | 47 |
MississippiState | SEC | 4-3 | 6-6 | +6.4 | 55 | 63 | +1.8 | 62 | -4.5 | 49 | +4.1 | 50 | 6.48 | 21 |
FloridaState | ACC | 3-4 | 5-7 | +6.2 | 56 | 75 | +3.3 | 52 | -3.7 | 54 | -0.7 | 76 | 6.87 | 16 |
BYU | Ind | 6-2 | 9-3 | +6.1 | 57 | 56 | -0.1 | 74 | -5.2 | 39 | +9.7 | 22 | -0.31 | 73 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 7-0 | 10-2 | +6.0 | 58 | 70 | -3.4 | 92 | -7.8 | 24 | +12.5 | 15 | -4.27 | 104 |
Army | Ind | 4-3 | 8-4 | +5.9 | 59 | 61 | +6.7 | 27 | +0.6 | 89 | +2.6 | 58 | -3.23 | 93 |
GeorgiaTech | ACC | 3-4 | 5-7 | +5.2 | 60 | 64 | +3.8 | 47 | -2.0 | 67 | -0.7 | 75 | 8.41 | 9 |
VirginiaTech | ACC | 3-4 | 5-7 | +5.1 | 61 | 62 | -2.8 | 90 | -8.7 | 16 | -2.5 | 88 | 5.58 | 29 |
Toledo | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | +4.9 | 62 | 69 | -2.4 | 87 | -7.8 | 23 | -0.8 | 77 | -7.42 | 125 |
TCU | B12 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +4.8 | 63 | 46 | +5.7 | 36 | +0.2 | 85 | -1.5 | 84 | 4.15 | 40 |
WesternKentucky | CUSA | 3-4 | 7-5 | +4.2 | 64 | 67 | +11.3 | 10 | +5.7 | 112 | -4.8 | 98 | -2.85 | 87 |
LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 6-1 | 10-2 | +3.9 | 65 | 51 | -2.0 | 86 | -5.1 | 41 | +7.3 | 36 | -6.80 | 122 |
USC | P12 | 3-4 | 6-6 | +3.9 | 66 | 57 | +6.1 | 31 | +1.4 | 92 | -1.4 | 82 | 2.56 | 52 |
FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 4-3 | 7-5 | +3.8 | 67 | 74 | +0.2 | 72 | -4.2 | 51 | -1.7 | 86 | -4.12 | 102 |
CentralFlorida | Amer | 4-3 | 8-4 | +3.5 | 68 | 73 | +4.5 | 43 | +0.8 | 90 | +1.1 | 65 | -4.11 | 101 |
Indiana | B10 | 2-5 | 4-8 | +3.3 | 69 | 47 | -1.4 | 80 | -4.7 | 47 | +1.4 | 62 | 12.98 | 1 |
UAB | CUSA | 5-3 | 7-5 | +3.1 | 70 | 45 | -1.9 | 85 | -4.9 | 45 | +2.3 | 60 | -1.51 | 77 |
Marshall | CUSA | 4-3 | 7-5 | +3.1 | 71 | 72 | +3.6 | 48 | -0.7 | 79 | -5.6 | 103 | -6.11 | 118 |
Maryland | B10 | 4-3 | 5-7 | +2.2 | 72 | 71 | +2.0 | 61 | +0.5 | 88 | +5.6 | 44 | 8.12 | 10 |
Illinois | B10 | 3-5 | 4-8 | +2.2 | 73 | 85 | -4.7 | 99 | -6.9 | 28 | +0.9 | 66 | 8.86 | 8 |
BallState | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | +1.2 | 74 | 66 | +1.1 | 68 | +0.2 | 86 | +2.6 | 59 | -0.65 | 75 |
Stanford | P12 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +0.7 | 75 | 76 | +0.6 | 69 | -0.3 | 82 | -0.2 | 72 | 4.95 | 34 |
BostonCollege | ACC | 4-3 | 6-6 | +0.7 | 76 | 65 | -1.8 | 83 | -2.7 | 61 | -0.9 | 79 | 1.05 | 65 |
NorthernIllinois | MAC | 6-2 | 8-4 | +0.3 | 77 | 80 | +3.9 | 46 | +5.0 | 110 | +8.7 | 27 | -0.81 | 76 |
TexasTech | B12 | 5-3 | 6-6 | +0.2 | 78 | 79 | +3.5 | 50 | +3.4 | 98 | +0.7 | 67 | 3.07 | 49 |
Washington | P12 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +0.1 | 79 | 68 | -7.0 | 111 | -8.1 | 21 | -6.0 | 105 | 1.20 | 63 |
ColoradoState | MWC | 3-4 | 5-7 | +0.1 | 80 | 83 | -1.9 | 84 | -2.5 | 64 | -2.6 | 89 | -0.54 | 74 |
Buffalo | MAC | 4-4 | 6-6 | -0.0 | 81 | 87 | +1.3 | 66 | +0.3 | 87 | -6.2 | 107 | -5.88 | 117 |
UtahState | MWC | 5-2 | 9-3 | -0.2 | 82 | 82 | +3.0 | 56 | +4.2 | 104 | +6.0 | 40 | -4.68 | 109 |
California | P12 | 2-5 | 4-8 | -0.3 | 83 | 84 | -1.0 | 79 | -2.5 | 62 | -11.5 | 115 | 0.42 | 70 |
WashingtonState | P12 | 4-4 | 6-6 | -0.7 | 84 | 81 | -3.7 | 96 | -3.2 | 58 | -1.3 | 81 | 1.12 | 64 |
MiamiOH | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | -0.8 | 85 | 88 | -6.0 | 106 | -5.1 | 42 | +0.4 | 70 | -5.75 | 114 |
SouthCarolina | SEC | 4-4 | 5-7 | -1.0 | 86 | 77 | -3.4 | 94 | -1.8 | 69 | +2.8 | 56 | 5.14 | 32 |
EasternMichigan | MAC | 5-3 | 7-5 | -1.4 | 87 | 95 | +2.3 | 59 | +3.9 | 102 | +0.5 | 68 | -6.38 | 120 |
EastCarolina | Amer | 3-4 | 6-6 | -1.8 | 88 | 90 | -1.5 | 82 | -0.3 | 81 | -4.2 | 97 | -2.26 | 84 |
Memphis | Amer | 4-4 | 6-6 | -2.2 | 89 | 86 | +1.5 | 63 | +3.5 | 99 | -3.3 | 91 | -2.32 | 85 |
MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 3-4 | 6-6 | -2.3 | 90 | 92 | +1.3 | 65 | +3.0 | 96 | -5.2 | 100 | -6.17 | 119 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-4 | 4-8 | -2.7 | 91 | 89 | -4.6 | 98 | -2.2 | 66 | -3.6 | 94 | 5.99 | 23 |
Missouri | SEC | 3-4 | 5-7 | -3.9 | 92 | 94 | +6.8 | 26 | +10.3 | 123 | -5.4 | 101 | 2.61 | 50 |
Wyoming | MWC | 4-3 | 6-6 | -4.8 | 93 | 78 | -6.8 | 109 | -1.5 | 72 | +0.2 | 71 | -3.42 | 95 |
Tulsa | Amer | 3-4 | 5-7 | -5.1 | 94 | 98 | -3.4 | 93 | +2.0 | 94 | -1.7 | 85 | 0.64 | 69 |
LouisianaTech | CUSA | 2-5 | 5-7 | -5.3 | 95 | 93 | -0.5 | 76 | +4.3 | 105 | -7.1 | 108 | -3.95 | 100 |
UTEP | CUSA | 6-1 | 8-4 | -5.9 | 96 | 102 | -8.7 | 116 | -1.8 | 71 | +3.1 | 55 | -7.92 | 127 |
Navy | Amer | 1-6 | 3-9 | -6.1 | 97 | 108 | -6.6 | 108 | -1.3 | 76 | -8.0 | 110 | 4.41 | 37 |
Hawaii | MWC | 4-4 | 6-7 | -6.2 | 98 | 101 | -2.5 | 89 | +3.8 | 100 | -3.0 | 90 | -3.49 | 97 |
CentralMichigan | MAC | 4-4 | 5-7 | -6.8 | 99 | 103 | -2.5 | 88 | +4.1 | 103 | -6.0 | 106 | -4.67 | 108 |
Troy | Sun | 4-3 | 6-6 | -7.2 | 100 | 100 | -8.7 | 118 | -1.5 | 73 | -3.4 | 92 | -6.66 | 121 |
SouthAlabama | Sun | 4-3 | 6-6 | -7.2 | 101 | 91 | -5.2 | 102 | +1.8 | 93 | -5.5 | 102 | -7.39 | 124 |
SanJoseState | MWC | 4-4 | 5-7 | -7.3 | 102 | 107 | -11.2 | 123 | -4.0 | 53 | -3.4 | 93 | -3.13 | 92 |
OldDominion | CUSA | 1-6 | 3-9 | -7.7 | 103 | 109 | -6.3 | 107 | -0.1 | 83 | -13.1 | 120 | -2.99 | 88 |
Duke | ACC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -7.8 | 104 | 105 | -3.7 | 95 | +4.3 | 106 | -4.1 | 96 | 3.60 | 43 |
KentState | MAC | 4-4 | 6-6 | -8.0 | 105 | 106 | +0.2 | 73 | +8.9 | 119 | -1.4 | 83 | -5.60 | 112 |
Colorado | P12 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -8.1 | 106 | 96 | -11.5 | 125 | -4.9 | 46 | -12.8 | 118 | 3.32 | 46 |
GeorgiaState | Sun | 3-4 | 5-7 | -8.4 | 107 | 104 | -5.1 | 101 | +3.8 | 101 | -1.9 | 87 | -1.58 | 78 |
Tulane | Amer | 1-6 | 3-9 | -8.6 | 108 | 97 | +3.4 | 51 | +11.7 | 125 | -8.5 | 111 | 0.31 | 71 |
Charlotte | CUSA | 4-3 | 6-6 | -8.7 | 109 | 99 | -4.4 | 97 | +4.4 | 107 | -4.8 | 99 | -6.93 | 123 |
SouthFlorida | Amer | 2-5 | 3-9 | -11.8 | 110 | 112 | -5.6 | 104 | +6.2 | 114 | -7.4 | 109 | 0.67 | 68 |
UNLV | MWC | 0-7 | 1-11 | -12.1 | 111 | 110 | -8.2 | 113 | +2.9 | 95 | -13.7 | 124 | 2.61 | 51 |
NewMexico | MWC | 3-5 | 4-8 | -12.8 | 112 | 121 | -12.3 | 128 | +0.8 | 91 | -3.9 | 95 | -1.80 | 80 |
LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 4-3 | 5-7 | -13.1 | 113 | 118 | -5.5 | 103 | +9.5 | 121 | +2.7 | 57 | -3.24 | 94 |
GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 2-5 | 3-9 | -14.5 | 114 | 115 | -5.9 | 105 | +8.3 | 116 | -11.0 | 114 | -3.02 | 89 |
NorthTexas | CUSA | 1-6 | 3-9 | -15.2 | 115 | 117 | -8.4 | 114 | +5.7 | 111 | -15.8 | 127 | -5.23 | 111 |
Arizona | P12 | 0-7 | 1-11 | -15.6 | 116 | 116 | -9.7 | 120 | +4.7 | 109 | -16.4 | 128 | 2.24 | 56 |
Temple | Amer | 3-4 | 4-8 | -15.9 | 117 | 111 | -7.9 | 112 | +8.7 | 118 | -5.7 | 104 | -3.60 | 98 |
BowlingGreen | MAC | 2-6 | 3-9 | -16.1 | 118 | 113 | -12.5 | 129 | +3.0 | 97 | -11.6 | 117 | -4.80 | 110 |
ArkansasState | Sun | 1-6 | 2-10 | -16.2 | 119 | 119 | +1.4 | 64 | +17.1 | 131 | -15.4 | 126 | -4.38 | 105 |
TexasState | Sun | 2-5 | 4-8 | -16.3 | 120 | 114 | -8.5 | 115 | +7.6 | 115 | -11.5 | 116 | -7.55 | 126 |
Ohio | MAC | 1-7 | 2-10 | -17.6 | 121 | 122 | -10.2 | 121 | +6.1 | 113 | -17.7 | 129 | -5.82 | 115 |
Kansas | B12 | 1-6 | 1-11 | -17.9 | 122 | 124 | -9.2 | 119 | +9.2 | 120 | -8.6 | 112 | 6.78 | 17 |
Rice | CUSA | 3-4 | 4-8 | -18.3 | 123 | 128 | -11.4 | 124 | +8.5 | 117 | -0.9 | 78 | -3.12 | 91 |
FIU | CUSA | 1-6 | 2-10 | -18.4 | 124 | 120 | -6.8 | 110 | +10.4 | 124 | -19.4 | 131 | -8.36 | 128 |
SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 1-6 | 2-10 | -18.5 | 125 | 123 | -13.2 | 130 | +4.7 | 108 | -13.6 | 123 | -5.63 | 113 |
NewMexicoState | Ind | 1-7 | 2-10 | -20.0 | 126 | 129 | -3.3 | 91 | +16.8 | 130 | -14.0 | 125 | -3.07 | 90 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-6 | 2-10 | -21.6 | 127 | 125 | -12.1 | 127 | +10.1 | 122 | -9.6 | 113 | 3.43 | 44 |
Akron | MAC | 2-6 | 2-10 | -21.9 | 128 | 126 | -8.7 | 117 | +13.5 | 127 | -13.3 | 121 | -2.12 | 83 |
FCS | Z_FCS | 10-98 | 11-106 | -24.2 | 129 | 130 | -11.8 | 126 | +12.8 | 126 | -13.1 | 119 | 0.94 | 67 |
Massachusetts | Ind | 1-6 | 2-10 | -24.3 | 130 | 127 | -10.9 | 122 | +13.9 | 129 | -13.4 | 122 | -2.48 | 86 |
Connecticut | Ind | 1-8 | 1-11 | -28.5 | 131 | 131 | -14.7 | 131 | +13.5 | 128 | -19.0 | 130 | -4.19 | 103 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OhioState | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +29.3 | 2 | 3 | +23.0 | 1 | -7.7 | 26 | +14.2 | 9 | 8.06 | 11 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +27.6 | 3 | 2 | +15.3 | 5 | -12.1 | 5 | +19.8 | 2 | 9.13 | 6 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +19.0 | 7 | 7 | +4.8 | 41 | -13.2 | 3 | +16.5 | 4 | 6.69 | 18 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +18.0 | 72 | 9 | +7.8 | 23 | -9.5 | 12 | +15.3 | 8 | 9.28 | 5 |
PennState | B10 | 5-2 | 7-5 | +16.5 | 15 | 8 | +4.1 | 45 | -12.1 | 6 | +10.9 | 18 | 11.29 | 2 |
Nebraska | B10 | 3-5 | 5-7 | +14.6 | 18 | 22 | +5.8 | 35 | -10.2 | 10 | -0.4 | 74 | 9.64 | 4 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 4-3 | 7-5 | +13.7 | 22 | 31 | +0.4 | 71 | -12.6 | 4 | +10.5 | 19 | 10.68 | 3 |
Minnesota | B10 | 5-2 | 8-4 | +11.1 | 32 | 35 | +4.1 | 44 | -6.9 | 27 | +7.1 | 37 | 5.62 | 28 |
Purdue | B10 | 4-3 | 6-6 | +10.9 | 34 | 24 | -0.5 | 77 | -11.0 | 8 | +7.6 | 34 | 9.06 | 7 |
Rutgers | B10 | 3-4 | 5-7 | +7.2 | 52 | 55 | -0.4 | 75 | -8.1 | 19 | +0.5 | 69 | 7.34 | 13 |
Indiana | B10 | 2-5 | 4-8 | +3.3 | 69 | 47 | -1.4 | 80 | -4.7 | 47 | +1.4 | 62 | 12.98 | 1 |
Maryland | B10 | 4-3 | 5-7 | +2.2 | 72 | 71 | +2.0 | 61 | +0.5 | 88 | +5.6 | 44 | 8.12 | 10 |
Illinois | B10 | 3-5 | 4-8 | +2.2 | 73 | 85 | -4.7 | 99 | -6.9 | 28 | +0.9 | 66 | 8.86 | 8 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-4 | 4-8 | -2.7 | 91 | 89 | -4.6 | 98 | -2.2 | 66 | -3.6 | 94 | 5.99 | 23 |
Slowly crawling back into the rankings, at least until Graham Mertz throws another couple pick-sixes
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +36.3 | 1 | 1 | +16.5 | 4 | -19.5 | 1 | +23.1 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 |
Cincinnati | Amer | 7-0 | 12-0 | +20.8 | 6 | 5 | +11.6 | 9 | -8.7 | 15 | +16.4 | 5 | 0.65 | 2 |
UTSA | CUSA | 8-0 | 11-1 | +10.7 | 35 | 50 | +5.3 | 40 | -4.6 | 48 | +12.0 | 16 | 0.56 | 3 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +27.6 | 3 | 2 | +15.3 | 5 | -12.1 | 5 | +19.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 4 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-0 | 11-1 | +18.3 | 8 | 20 | +14.5 | 7 | -3.3 | 57 | +16.3 | 6 | 0.21 | 5 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.8 | 21 | 11 | +9.7 | 14 | -3.3 | 56 | +14.1 | 11 | 0.09 | 6 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 7-0 | 10-2 | +6.0 | 58 | 70 | -3.4 | 92 | -7.8 | 24 | +12.5 | 15 | 0.06 | 7 |
SMU | Amer | 7-0 | 10-2 | +9.7 | 37 | 43 | +7.6 | 24 | -1.8 | 70 | +8.0 | 31 | 0.04 | 8 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +18.0 | 72 | 9 | +7.8 | 23 | -9.5 | 12 | +15.3 | 8 | 0.02 | 9 |
Probably should have left Sparty off this list, in all honesty.
Now the more interesting set:
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona | P12 | 0-7 | 1-11 | -15.6 | 116 | 116 | -9.7 | 120 | +4.7 | 109 | -16.4 | 128 | 0.57 | 1 |
UNLV | MWC | 0-7 | 1-11 | -12.1 | 111 | 110 | -8.2 | 113 | +2.9 | 95 | -13.7 | 124 | 0.24 | 2 |
Man, Jedd Fisch is not off to an awesome start.
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia | SEC | 7-0 | 12-0 | +36.3 | 1 | 1 | +16.5 | 4 | -19.5 | 1 | +23.1 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 |
Michigan | B10 | 7-0 | 11-1 | +27.6 | 3 | 2 | +15.3 | 5 | -12.1 | 5 | +19.8 | 2 | 0.66 | 5 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-0 | 11-1 | +18.3 | 8 | 20 | +14.5 | 7 | -3.3 | 57 | +16.3 | 6 | 0.62 | 6 |
Alabama | SEC | 7-1 | 10-2 | +26.6 | 4 | 4 | +19.5 | 2 | -8.0 | 22 | +14.0 | 12 | 0.55 | 7 |
Pittsburgh | ACC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +22.7 | 5 | 6 | +18.6 | 3 | -5.2 | 40 | +10.9 | 17 | 0.46 | 8 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.8 | 21 | 11 | +9.7 | 14 | -3.3 | 56 | +14.1 | 11 | 0.41 | 9 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-1 | 10-2 | +17.4 | 10 | 15 | +10.9 | 11 | -5.8 | 37 | +16.8 | 3 | 0.30 | 12 |
OhioState | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +29.3 | 2 | 3 | +23.0 | 1 | -7.7 | 26 | +14.2 | 9 | 0.24 | 14 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +19.0 | 7 | 7 | +4.8 | 41 | -13.2 | 3 | +16.5 | 4 | 0.20 | 15 |
Oregon | P12 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +12.6 | 25 | 26 | +6.1 | 30 | -6.2 | 32 | +9.9 | 21 | 0.18 | 16 |
MichiganState | B10 | 7-0 | 10-2 | +18.0 | 9 | 72 | +7.8 | 23 | -9.5 | 12 | +15.3 | 8 | 0.17 | 17 |
Mississippi | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +16.8 | 11 | 17 | +12.5 | 8 | -4.1 | 52 | +13.3 | 13 | 0.15 | 19 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +11.6 | 30 | 27 | +1.2 | 67 | -9.1 | 13 | +14.1 | 10 | 0.14 | 20 |
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +11.0 | 33 | 38 | -1.5 | 81 | -10.7 | 9 | +16.2 | 7 | 0.13 | 21 |
Baylor | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 19 | 18 | +8.0 | 22 | -5.8 | 36 | +12.8 | 14 | 0.11 | 22 |
1 - Wake Forest, 2 - Pittsburgh, 3 - Kentucky, 4 - Baylor
Give the people what they want!
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OklahomaState | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +11.0 | 33 | 38 | -1.5 | 81 | -10.7 | 9 | +16.2 | 7 | 1.06 | 3 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 7-0 | 10-2 | +6.0 | 58 | 70 | -3.4 | 92 | -7.8 | 24 | +12.5 | 15 | 1.04 | 5 |
Kentucky | SEC | 6-1 | 10-2 | +11.6 | 30 | 27 | +1.2 | 67 | -9.1 | 13 | +14.1 | 10 | 0.76 | 8 |
BYU | Ind | 6-2 | 9-3 | +6.1 | 57 | 56 | -0.1 | 74 | -5.2 | 39 | +9.7 | 22 | 0.69 | 10 |
UTSA | CUSA | 8-0 | 11-1 | +10.7 | 35 | 50 | +5.3 | 40 | -4.6 | 48 | +12.0 | 16 | 0.58 | 13 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-1 | 10-2 | +17.4 | 10 | 15 | +10.9 | 11 | -5.8 | 37 | +16.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 14 |
Oklahoma | B12 | 8-0 | 10-2 | +13.8 | 21 | 11 | +9.7 | 14 | -3.3 | 56 | +14.1 | 11 | 0.56 | 16 |
WakeForest | ACC | 7-0 | 11-1 | +18.3 | 8 | 20 | +14.5 | 7 | -3.3 | 57 | +16.3 | 6 | 0.45 | 25 |
Iowa | B10 | 6-1 | 10-2 | +19.0 | 7 | 7 | +4.8 | 41 | -13.2 | 3 | +16.5 | 4 | 0.41 | 26 |
Baylor | B12 | 6-1 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 19 | 18 | +8.0 | 22 | -5.8 | 36 | +12.8 | 14 | 0.36 | 27 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-6 | 2-10 | -21.6 | 127 | 125 | -12.1 | 127 | +10.1 | 122 | -9.6 | 113 | 3.43 | 44 |
Kansas | B12 | 1-6 | 1-11 | -17.9 | 122 | 124 | -9.2 | 119 | +9.2 | 120 | -8.6 | 112 | 6.78 | 17 |
Arizona | P12 | 0-7 | 1-11 | -15.6 | 116 | 116 | -9.7 | 120 | +4.7 | 109 | -16.4 | 128 | 2.24 | 56 |
Colorado | P12 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -8.1 | 106 | 96 | -11.5 | 125 | -4.9 | 46 | -12.8 | 118 | 3.32 | 46 |
Duke | ACC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -7.8 | 104 | 105 | -3.7 | 95 | +4.3 | 106 | -4.1 | 96 | 3.60 | 43 |
Missouri | SEC | 3-4 | 5-7 | -3.9 | 92 | 94 | +6.8 | 26 | +10.3 | 123 | -5.4 | 101 | 2.61 | 50 |
Northwestern | B10 | 3-4 | 4-8 | -2.7 | 91 | 89 | -4.6 | 98 | -2.2 | 66 | -3.6 | 94 | 5.99 | 23 |
Man, Colorado looks like a worse version of Wisconsin/Iowa.
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #2 OhioState | V | #69 Indiana | W | 54 | 7 |
9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #22 Wisconsin | V | #34 Purdue | W | 30 | 13 |
9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #4 Alabama | H | #24 Tennessee | W | 52 | 24 |
9 | Thu | 2021-10-21 | #67 FloridaAtlantic | V | #109 Charlotte | W | 38 | 9 |
9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #62 Toledo | H | #53 WesternMichigan | W | 34 | 15 |
And of the year (so far):
Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #4 Alabama | V | #55 MississippiState | W | 49 | 9 |
3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #25 Oregon | V | #2 OhioState | W | 35 | 28 |
4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #3 Michigan | H | #77 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
7 | Sat | 2021-10-09 | #1 Georgia | V | #12 Auburn | W | 34 | 10 |
3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #1 Georgia | H | #70 UAB | W | 56 | 7 |
9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #2 OhioState | V | #69 Indiana | W | 54 | 7 |
6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #1 Georgia | H | #29 Arkansas | W | 37 | 0 |
6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #4 Alabama | H | #11 Mississippi | W | 42 | 21 |
8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #34 Purdue | V | #7 Iowa | W | 24 | 7 |
6 | Fri | 2021-10-01 | #7 Iowa | V | #72 Maryland | W | 51 | 14 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 279.5 over 421 games, which would rank #24 (out of 54 ratings systems) here: [LINK]
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30 | #3 Michigan | V | #72 MichiganState | 69% | 7.2 |
Oct 30 | #12 Auburn | H | #11 Mississippi | 56% | 2.2 |
Oct 30 | #7 Iowa | V | #22 Wisconsin | 58% | 3.0 |
Oct 30 | #19 Baylor | H | #17 Texas | 55% | 1.7 |
Oct 30 | #44 Houston | H | #37 SMU | 54% | 1.5 |
Oct 30 | #2 OhioState | H | #15 PennState | 84% | 15.1 |
Oct 30 | #13 Florida | N | #1 Georgia | 10% | -19.5 |
Oct 30 | #18 Nebraska | H | #34 Purdue | 66% | 6.0 |
Oct 30 | #41 FresnoState | V | #58 SanDiegoState | 53% | 1.1 |
Oct 30 | #36 Louisville | V | #26 NorthCarolinaState | 37% | -4.8 |
Oct 30 | #30 Kentucky | V | #55 MississippiState | 58% | 2.8 |
Oct 30 | #46 UCLA | V | #38 Utah | 41% | -3.2 |
Oct 30 | #28 Virginia | V | #57 BYU | 59% | 3.4 |
Oct 30 | #14 IowaState | V | #54 WestVirginia | 69% | 7.2 |
Oct 30 | #60 GeorgiaTech | H | #61 VirginiaTech | 57% | 2.4 |
Oct 30 | #43 NorthCarolina | V | #10 NotreDame | 23% | -10.8 |
Oct 30 | #52 Rutgers | V | #73 Illinois | 57% | 2.7 |
Oct 30 | #69 Indiana | V | #72 Maryland | 47% | -1.2 |
Oct 30 | #39 KansasState | H | #63 TCU | 69% | 7.0 |
Oct 30 | #16 Clemson | H | #56 FloridaState | 78% | 11.1 |
Oct 30 | #48 Miami | V | #5 Pittsburgh | 13% | -16.8 |
Oct 30 | #75 Stanford | H | #79 Washington | 58% | 2.9 |
Oct 30 | #27 BoiseState | V | #80 ColoradoState | 74% | 9.4 |
Oct 30 | #83 California | H | #31 OregonState | 26% | -9.2 |
Oct 30 | #76 BostonCollege | V | #47 Syracuse | 25% | -10.0 |
Oct 30 | #93 Wyoming | V | #102 SanJoseState | 50% | 0.1 |
Oct 30 | #103 OldDominion | H | #95 LouisianaTech | 50% | 0.0 |
Oct 30 | #32 Minnesota | V | #91 Northwestern | 78% | 11.4 |
Oct 30 | #84 WashingtonState | V | #42 ArizonaState | 21% | -11.9 |
Oct 29 | #97 Navy | V | #94 Tulsa | 41% | -3.3 |
Oct 30 | #21 Oklahoma | H | #78 TexasTech | 85% | 15.8 |
Oct 30 | #82 UtahState | H | #98 Hawaii | 72% | 8.2 |
Oct 30 | #67 FloridaAtlantic | H | #96 UTEP | 79% | 11.9 |
Oct 30 | #114 GeorgiaSouthern | H | #107 GeorgiaState | 40% | -3.7 |
Oct 30 | #109 Charlotte | V | #64 WesternKentucky | 16% | -15.1 |
Oct 30 | #115 NorthTexas | V | #123 Rice | 52% | 0.8 |
Oct 28 | #88 EastCarolina | H | #110 SouthFlorida | 80% | 12.2 |
Oct 28 | #23 CoastalCarolina | H | #100 Troy | 93% | 23.0 |
Oct 30 | #25 Oregon | H | #106 Colorado | 93% | 22.8 |
Oct 30 | #6 Cincinnati | V | #108 Tulane | 95% | 26.8 |
Oct 30 | #119 ArkansasState | V | #101 SouthAlabama | 22% | -11.2 |
Oct 30 | #8 WakeForest | H | #104 Duke | 96% | 28.2 |
Oct 30 | #68 CentralFlorida | V | #117 Temple | 87% | 16.9 |
Oct 29 | #50 Nevada | H | #111 UNLV | 92% | 22.0 |
Oct 30 | #49 AppalachianState | H | #113 LouisianaMonroe | 93% | 23.0 |
Oct 30 | #118 BowlingGreen | V | #81 Buffalo | 11% | -18.2 |
Oct 30 | #116 Arizona | V | #66 USC | 8% | -21.6 |
Oct 30 | #92 Missouri | V | #127 Vanderbilt | 85% | 15.2 |
Oct 30 | #65 LouisianaLafayette | H | #120 TexasState | 92% | 22.4 |
Oct 30 | #90 MiddleTennessee | H | #125 SouthernMississippi | 89% | 18.4 |
Oct 30 | #124 FIU | V | #71 Marshall | 7% | -23.6 |
Oct 30 | #122 Kansas | V | #33 OklahomaState | 3% | -31.0 |
Oct 30 | #40 Liberty | H | #130 Massachusetts | 98% | 35.8 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30 | #3 Michigan | V | #72 MichiganState | 69% | 7.2 |
Oct 30 | #7 Iowa | V | #22 Wisconsin | 58% | 3.0 |
Oct 30 | #2 OhioState | H | #15 PennState | 84% | 15.1 |
Oct 30 | #18 Nebraska | H | #34 Purdue | 66% | 6.0 |
Oct 30 | #52 Rutgers | V | #73 Illinois | 57% | 2.7 |
Oct 30 | #69 Indiana | V | #72 Maryland | 47% | -1.2 |
Oct 30 | #32 Minnesota | V | #91 Northwestern | 78% | 11.4 |
Do not, under any circumstances, submit yourself to the Heartland Trophy game. It promises to be awful.
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