Maybe this is just an every-other-week column now. I used to try to update these on Sunday while watching the Vikings rip my heart out in new and clever ways, but Sports-Reference has been a little slower at updating scores as of late.
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +35.5 | 1 | 1 | +13.5 | 5 | -21.7 | 1 | +20.7 | 1 | 2.20 | 51 |
| OhioState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +20.2 | 1 | -7.9 | 21 | +15.0 | 5 | 6.57 | 11 |
| Alabama | SEC | 8-1 | 11-1 | +24.2 | 3 | 3 | +16.5 | 2 | -8.2 | 19 | +14.4 | 8 | 3.54 | 38 |
| Michigan | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.8 | 6 | -10.8 | 9 | +15.8 | 3 | 7.39 | 8 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +20.0 | 5 | 12 | +4.8 | 39 | -14.5 | 3 | +14.2 | 10 | 9.35 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +17.7 | 6 | 7 | +16.4 | 3 | -2.4 | 61 | +7.5 | 30 | 0.64 | 63 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 9-0 | 12-0 | +17.5 | 7 | 5 | +8.4 | 19 | -8.4 | 18 | +15.2 | 4 | -4.01 | 100 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 8-1 | 10-2 | +17.1 | 8 | 10 | +9.6 | 14 | -6.7 | 27 | +16.3 | 2 | 5.97 | 17 |
| PennState | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +17.0 | 9 | 11 | +4.4 | 43 | -12.3 | 5 | +10.9 | 17 | 9.64 | 2 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.7 | 10 | 8 | +14.9 | 4 | -1.9 | 68 | +12.1 | 13 | 2.40 | 48 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +16.2 | 11 | 19 | +1.5 | 64 | -14.0 | 4 | +11.6 | 14 | 1.69 | 55 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.1 | 12 | 6 | +9.5 | 16 | -6.0 | 30 | +14.9 | 6 | 7.96 | 5 |
| BoiseState | MWC | 5-4 | 8-4 | +16.0 | 13 | 22 | +7.2 | 27 | -9.0 | 13 | +8.6 | 25 | 2.93 | 44 |
| IowaState | B12 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +15.9 | 14 | 21 | +7.7 | 23 | -8.5 | 16 | +8.0 | 28 | 4.63 | 30 |
| Auburn | SEC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +15.8 | 15 | 9 | +7.3 | 26 | -8.5 | 17 | +9.6 | 21 | 6.88 | 10 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +15.7 | 16 | 14 | +10.9 | 11 | -4.7 | 38 | +11.5 | 15 | 4.90 | 26 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.6 | 17 | 24 | +1.5 | 63 | -11.8 | 7 | +14.9 | 7 | 3.45 | 39 |
| NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +14.5 | 18 | 23 | +2.7 | 55 | -11.8 | 8 | +7.3 | 32 | 3.93 | 36 |
| Utah | P12 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +14.4 | 19 | 33 | +9.5 | 15 | -5.3 | 34 | +7.2 | 33 | 1.09 | 61 |
| Iowa | B10 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 20 | 13 | +1.3 | 67 | -12.0 | 6 | +13.4 | 12 | 6.26 | 13 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 9-0 | 10-2 | +14.2 | 21 | 15 | +11.3 | 9 | -2.3 | 63 | +14.2 | 9 | 1.64 | 56 |
| Clemson | ACC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +13.6 | 22 | 20 | -2.4 | 87 | -15.6 | 2 | +7.4 | 31 | 4.44 | 32 |
| Purdue | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +13.5 | 23 | 28 | +3.2 | 52 | -9.8 | 10 | +10.5 | 19 | 7.60 | 6 |
| Baylor | B12 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +13.3 | 24 | 17 | +6.0 | 31 | -7.0 | 25 | +10.4 | 20 | 0.61 | 65 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 9-0 | 12-0 | +12.9 | 25 | 32 | +7.8 | 22 | -4.2 | 43 | +13.7 | 11 | -8.75 | 129 |
| Texas | B12 | 4-5 | 6-6 | +12.1 | 26 | 18 | +11.0 | 10 | -1.7 | 72 | +4.8 | 46 | 4.25 | 34 |
| Oregon | P12 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +11.9 | 27 | 25 | +8.7 | 17 | -2.8 | 56 | +10.5 | 18 | 1.29 | 58 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 3-7 | 4-8 | +11.7 | 28 | 27 | +3.9 | 47 | -9.5 | 12 | -3.5 | 90 | 8.56 | 4 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 29 | 29 | +10.1 | 13 | -2.4 | 60 | +4.0 | 50 | 2.66 | 46 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 8-1 | 11-1 | +11.5 | 30 | 30 | +6.7 | 29 | -4.9 | 37 | +6.7 | 35 | -11.58 | 131 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +10.7 | 31 | 31 | +7.0 | 28 | -3.6 | 50 | +8.0 | 29 | 5.37 | 21 |
| AppalachianState | Sun | 7-2 | 10-2 | +10.7 | 32 | 40 | +6.6 | 30 | -3.7 | 47 | +9.4 | 24 | -4.68 | 108 |
| BYU | Ind | 8-2 | 10-2 | +10.5 | 33 | 44 | +5.9 | 33 | -3.8 | 46 | +11.2 | 16 | 0.52 | 67 |
| Florida | SEC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +10.1 | 34 | 16 | +5.3 | 36 | -5.7 | 32 | +0.8 | 65 | 3.44 | 40 |
| Houston | Amer | 8-1 | 11-1 | +10.0 | 35 | 35 | +7.4 | 25 | -2.2 | 66 | +9.5 | 23 | -9.78 | 130 |
| Liberty | Ind | 7-3 | 8-4 | +9.9 | 36 | 36 | +3.7 | 50 | -6.7 | 26 | +3.4 | 53 | -4.10 | 103 |
| Miami | ACC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +9.4 | 37 | 34 | +5.8 | 34 | -3.6 | 48 | +6.2 | 39 | 5.42 | 20 |
| KansasState | B12 | 6-3 | 7-5 | +9.3 | 38 | 37 | -0.8 | 77 | -9.5 | 11 | +8.1 | 27 | 3.83 | 37 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 6-3 | 7-5 | +9.2 | 39 | 26 | +2.1 | 60 | -7.2 | 24 | +5.1 | 45 | 5.22 | 23 |
| Virginia | ACC | 6-3 | 7-5 | +8.8 | 40 | 47 | +10.7 | 12 | +1.8 | 90 | +6.2 | 38 | 4.77 | 28 |
| AirForce | MWC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +8.7 | 41 | 43 | +1.0 | 70 | -7.5 | 23 | +5.7 | 42 | -1.64 | 79 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 5-4 | 6-6 | +8.5 | 42 | 51 | +12.2 | 7 | +3.2 | 98 | +3.5 | 52 | 5.26 | 22 |
| SMU | Amer | 7-2 | 9-3 | +8.5 | 43 | 39 | +7.9 | 21 | -0.8 | 76 | +4.8 | 47 | -3.02 | 88 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 6-3 | 8-4 | +8.4 | 44 | 57 | +4.0 | 46 | -5.3 | 35 | +0.3 | 71 | -5.49 | 113 |
| MississippiState | SEC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +8.4 | 45 | 48 | +3.7 | 49 | -4.7 | 39 | +5.1 | 44 | 6.11 | 15 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 5-4 | 6-6 | +8.0 | 46 | 41 | +4.5 | 42 | -4.3 | 42 | +0.6 | 70 | 4.34 | 33 |
| Army | Ind | 5-3 | 8-4 | +7.9 | 47 | 52 | +5.9 | 32 | -1.9 | 69 | +5.9 | 41 | -2.89 | 86 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +7.8 | 48 | 46 | +2.2 | 59 | -5.3 | 33 | +6.7 | 36 | 0.55 | 66 |
| Nevada | MWC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +7.7 | 49 | 42 | +8.1 | 20 | +0.4 | 82 | +6.2 | 40 | -2.02 | 84 |
| FresnoState | MWC | 7-3 | 9-3 | +7.7 | 50 | 38 | +4.5 | 40 | -3.0 | 54 | +6.3 | 37 | -4.74 | 109 |
| WesternKentucky | CUSA | 5-4 | 7-5 | +7.7 | 51 | 58 | +11.5 | 8 | +2.8 | 96 | -0.2 | 75 | -2.98 | 87 |
| LSU | SEC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +7.5 | 52 | 55 | +4.1 | 45 | -3.9 | 45 | +1.9 | 60 | 6.27 | 12 |
| ArizonaState | P12 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +7.5 | 53 | 62 | +1.4 | 65 | -6.2 | 29 | +3.1 | 54 | -1.74 | 81 |
| Louisville | ACC | 4-5 | 6-6 | +6.9 | 54 | 50 | +4.5 | 41 | -3.0 | 53 | +0.8 | 67 | 5.03 | 24 |
| OregonState | P12 | 5-4 | 7-5 | +6.8 | 55 | 45 | +8.6 | 18 | +1.1 | 87 | +0.7 | 68 | 1.72 | 54 |
| UCLA | P12 | 5-4 | 7-5 | +6.2 | 56 | 56 | +7.5 | 24 | +0.9 | 86 | +2.0 | 59 | 1.63 | 57 |
| WestVirginia | B12 | 4-5 | 6-6 | +5.9 | 57 | 49 | -0.3 | 74 | -6.4 | 28 | +1.7 | 61 | 2.12 | 53 |
| LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 8-1 | 10-2 | +5.7 | 58 | 54 | -0.9 | 78 | -5.8 | 31 | +8.4 | 26 | -6.50 | 120 |
| CentralFlorida | Amer | 6-3 | 8-4 | +5.2 | 59 | 53 | +2.9 | 53 | -2.2 | 65 | +4.0 | 49 | -4.17 | 105 |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 8-1 | 10-2 | +5.1 | 60 | 64 | -4.0 | 93 | -7.9 | 20 | +9.5 | 22 | -3.66 | 95 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 3-6 | 4-8 | +4.0 | 61 | 63 | +2.5 | 57 | -2.6 | 58 | -4.0 | 92 | 5.72 | 19 |
| UAB | CUSA | 6-3 | 7-5 | +3.5 | 62 | 66 | +1.3 | 66 | -2.2 | 64 | +2.1 | 58 | -1.07 | 75 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 4-5 | 5-7 | +3.4 | 63 | 60 | -4.8 | 96 | -8.8 | 14 | -1.9 | 81 | 4.11 | 35 |
| TCU | B12 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +3.1 | 64 | 68 | +4.3 | 44 | +0.9 | 85 | +0.0 | 73 | 3.43 | 41 |
| Toledo | MAC | 4-5 | 7-5 | +2.9 | 65 | 65 | -0.8 | 76 | -4.6 | 40 | -3.7 | 91 | -7.90 | 127 |
| UtahState | MWC | 7-2 | 9-3 | +2.8 | 66 | 72 | +3.9 | 48 | +2.0 | 92 | +7.1 | 34 | -4.09 | 102 |
| Illinois | B10 | 4-6 | 5-7 | +2.6 | 67 | 78 | -6.1 | 107 | -8.7 | 15 | +1.4 | 62 | 7.54 | 7 |
| SouthCarolina | SEC | 5-4 | 6-6 | +2.6 | 68 | 87 | -1.3 | 81 | -3.4 | 51 | +4.0 | 51 | 4.71 | 29 |
| EastCarolina | Amer | 5-4 | 6-6 | +2.5 | 69 | 79 | -0.2 | 73 | -3.0 | 52 | -0.2 | 74 | -1.37 | 78 |
| WesternMichigan | MAC | 5-4 | 7-5 | +2.5 | 70 | 61 | +2.9 | 54 | +0.6 | 83 | +3.0 | 55 | -0.98 | 74 |
| WashingtonState | P12 | 5-4 | 7-5 | +2.3 | 71 | 70 | -1.8 | 85 | -4.1 | 44 | +1.1 | 63 | 1.24 | 60 |
| USC | P12 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +1.8 | 72 | 71 | +5.1 | 37 | +2.7 | 95 | -2.5 | 85 | 2.96 | 43 |
| GeorgiaTech | ACC | 3-6 | 4-8 | +1.5 | 73 | 74 | +1.1 | 68 | -1.4 | 73 | -5.4 | 100 | 6.95 | 9 |
| Indiana | B10 | 2-7 | 3-9 | +1.0 | 74 | 73 | -1.6 | 84 | -2.8 | 57 | -0.6 | 78 | 11.35 | 1 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +0.8 | 75 | 59 | -2.2 | 86 | -3.0 | 55 | +0.7 | 69 | 6.03 | 16 |
| EasternMichigan | MAC | 6-3 | 8-4 | +0.6 | 76 | 84 | +5.0 | 38 | +4.8 | 103 | +2.7 | 56 | -6.64 | 121 |
| FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 5-4 | 7-5 | +0.5 | 77 | 69 | -1.4 | 82 | -2.3 | 62 | -2.3 | 83 | -4.32 | 107 |
| Maryland | B10 | 5-4 | 6-6 | +0.3 | 78 | 75 | +2.6 | 56 | +3.0 | 97 | +4.7 | 48 | 6.19 | 14 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 5-4 | 6-6 | +0.3 | 79 | 86 | -4.5 | 95 | -5.0 | 36 | -1.2 | 79 | -0.62 | 72 |
| California | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -0.2 | 80 | 67 | -3.2 | 91 | -4.5 | 41 | -9.2 | 113 | -0.30 | 71 |
| Washington | P12 | 4-5 | 5-7 | -0.2 | 81 | 76 | -7.1 | 112 | -7.6 | 22 | -4.6 | 96 | 0.23 | 70 |
| Memphis | Amer | 5-4 | 6-6 | -0.4 | 82 | 89 | +2.0 | 62 | +2.4 | 93 | +0.0 | 72 | -1.77 | 82 |
| BallState | MAC | 5-4 | 7-5 | -0.9 | 83 | 77 | -1.1 | 80 | +0.3 | 80 | +2.3 | 57 | -1.27 | 76 |
| NorthernIllinois | MAC | 6-3 | 7-5 | -1.5 | 84 | 81 | +3.6 | 51 | +6.2 | 114 | +5.2 | 43 | -1.83 | 83 |
| ColoradoState | MWC | 3-6 | 4-8 | -2.2 | 85 | 80 | -3.0 | 90 | -1.8 | 71 | -6.8 | 105 | -0.85 | 73 |
| TexasTech | B12 | 5-4 | 5-7 | -2.4 | 86 | 88 | +2.0 | 61 | +4.9 | 104 | +0.8 | 66 | 2.37 | 49 |
| MiamiOH | MAC | 4-5 | 6-6 | -2.7 | 87 | 82 | -5.1 | 98 | -2.6 | 59 | -2.5 | 86 | -5.84 | 115 |
| MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 4-5 | 6-6 | -3.4 | 88 | 85 | +0.5 | 71 | +3.4 | 99 | -5.3 | 99 | -6.23 | 117 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 4-5 | 5-7 | -3.6 | 89 | 90 | +2.3 | 58 | +4.9 | 105 | -8.3 | 109 | -6.65 | 122 |
| Missouri | SEC | 4-5 | 5-7 | -3.9 | 90 | 94 | +5.5 | 35 | +9.5 | 119 | -2.2 | 82 | 2.30 | 50 |
| Troy | Sun | 5-4 | 6-6 | -4.2 | 91 | 93 | -5.2 | 99 | -1.1 | 74 | -2.7 | 87 | -6.43 | 119 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 5-4 | 6-6 | -4.4 | 92 | 95 | -4.9 | 97 | -0.5 | 78 | -1.9 | 80 | -3.77 | 97 |
| Tulsa | Amer | 3-6 | 5-7 | -4.4 | 93 | 99 | -3.7 | 92 | +0.4 | 81 | -4.2 | 94 | 0.26 | 69 |
| Stanford | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -4.6 | 94 | 83 | -2.5 | 88 | +1.9 | 91 | -4.7 | 97 | 4.53 | 31 |
| CentralMichigan | MAC | 5-4 | 6-6 | -5.0 | 95 | 102 | -1.4 | 83 | +3.6 | 100 | -3.1 | 88 | -5.58 | 114 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 6-3 | 8-4 | -5.3 | 96 | 91 | -6.3 | 108 | -0.6 | 77 | -0.3 | 76 | -7.79 | 126 |
| OldDominion | CUSA | 3-6 | 5-7 | -5.5 | 97 | 100 | -5.3 | 100 | -0.8 | 75 | -9.6 | 115 | -3.40 | 92 |
| LouisianaTech | CUSA | 2-7 | 4-8 | -5.6 | 98 | 96 | +0.5 | 72 | +5.1 | 109 | -9.8 | 116 | -3.53 | 93 |
| Navy | Amer | 2-7 | 3-9 | -5.6 | 99 | 92 | -7.2 | 113 | -1.9 | 70 | -4.1 | 93 | 4.97 | 25 |
| SanJoseState | MWC | 5-5 | 6-6 | -6.1 | 100 | 101 | -9.6 | 121 | -3.6 | 49 | -3.3 | 89 | -3.98 | 99 |
| Colorado | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -6.2 | 101 | 105 | -7.5 | 114 | -2.1 | 67 | -8.0 | 106 | 3.10 | 42 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-6 | 3-9 | -6.3 | 102 | 98 | -6.1 | 106 | -0.2 | 79 | -6.3 | 103 | 4.82 | 27 |
| GeorgiaState | Sun | 4-5 | 5-7 | -6.4 | 103 | 106 | -5.7 | 104 | +1.2 | 88 | -0.4 | 77 | -1.72 | 80 |
| SouthAlabama | Sun | 5-4 | 5-7 | -6.5 | 104 | 97 | -5.5 | 101 | +0.7 | 84 | -6.3 | 102 | -7.40 | 124 |
| Tulane | Amer | 1-8 | 2-10 | -6.9 | 105 | 104 | -0.3 | 75 | +5.9 | 113 | -8.6 | 110 | 0.77 | 62 |
| KentState | MAC | 5-4 | 7-5 | -7.6 | 106 | 107 | +1.1 | 69 | +9.8 | 120 | +1.0 | 64 | -6.38 | 118 |
| Hawaii | MWC | 4-6 | 5-8 | -7.9 | 107 | 103 | -2.9 | 89 | +5.0 | 106 | -5.2 | 98 | -4.12 | 104 |
| Duke | ACC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -10.8 | 108 | 108 | -6.0 | 105 | +5.0 | 107 | -6.1 | 101 | 1.27 | 59 |
| UNLV | MWC | 1-8 | 2-10 | -11.2 | 109 | 113 | -6.6 | 110 | +3.9 | 102 | -10.3 | 119 | 2.42 | 47 |
| SouthFlorida | Amer | 2-7 | 2-10 | -11.8 | 110 | 111 | -4.3 | 94 | +7.2 | 117 | -10.0 | 117 | 0.64 | 64 |
| Charlotte | CUSA | 5-4 | 6-6 | -11.9 | 111 | 109 | -6.5 | 109 | +5.8 | 111 | -4.4 | 95 | -6.65 | 123 |
| Arizona | P12 | 1-8 | 1-11 | -12.1 | 112 | 115 | -9.5 | 120 | +1.4 | 89 | -13.9 | 123 | 2.84 | 45 |
| NorthTexas | CUSA | 3-6 | 4-8 | -12.3 | 113 | 116 | -6.8 | 111 | +5.0 | 108 | -10.3 | 118 | -4.99 | 110 |
| BowlingGreen | MAC | 3-6 | 4-8 | -12.8 | 114 | 110 | -8.8 | 118 | +3.8 | 101 | -8.7 | 111 | -5.43 | 112 |
| GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 2-7 | 3-9 | -14.4 | 115 | 117 | -8.2 | 116 | +5.6 | 110 | -12.3 | 120 | -2.57 | 85 |
| NewMexico | MWC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -15.3 | 116 | 112 | -12.6 | 129 | +2.4 | 94 | -8.9 | 112 | -1.37 | 77 |
| LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 4-5 | 5-7 | -15.4 | 117 | 114 | -5.7 | 103 | +11.1 | 122 | -2.4 | 84 | -3.06 | 90 |
| Ohio | MAC | 2-7 | 3-9 | -15.8 | 118 | 119 | -8.3 | 117 | +6.8 | 116 | -14.0 | 124 | -6.01 | 116 |
| TexasState | Sun | 3-6 | 4-8 | -17.4 | 119 | 120 | -10.4 | 123 | +7.4 | 118 | -8.0 | 107 | -7.52 | 125 |
| ArkansasState | Sun | 1-8 | 2-10 | -17.6 | 120 | 118 | -1.0 | 79 | +16.3 | 131 | -15.4 | 126 | -4.05 | 101 |
| Rice | CUSA | 3-6 | 3-9 | -18.0 | 121 | 121 | -11.8 | 126 | +6.7 | 115 | -6.8 | 104 | -3.11 | 91 |
| FIU | CUSA | 1-8 | 2-10 | -20.8 | 122 | 124 | -8.1 | 115 | +11.9 | 124 | -18.8 | 130 | -8.40 | 128 |
| NewMexicoState | Ind | 1-8 | 2-10 | -21.1 | 123 | 125 | -5.7 | 102 | +15.4 | 129 | -15.7 | 127 | -3.98 | 98 |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-8 | 1-11 | -21.3 | 124 | 126 | -10.1 | 122 | +11.9 | 125 | -9.3 | 114 | 5.80 | 18 |
| Temple | Amer | 3-6 | 3-9 | -21.4 | 125 | 122 | -10.8 | 124 | +11.5 | 123 | -8.1 | 108 | -3.70 | 96 |
| SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 1-8 | 2-10 | -21.9 | 126 | 123 | -15.0 | 130 | +5.9 | 112 | -17.7 | 129 | -5.33 | 111 |
| Akron | MAC | 2-7 | 2-10 | -22.1 | 127 | 128 | -9.4 | 119 | +12.9 | 126 | -14.0 | 125 | -3.60 | 94 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-7 | 2-10 | -22.5 | 128 | 127 | -12.3 | 128 | +10.4 | 121 | -12.6 | 121 | 2.13 | 52 |
| FCS | Z_FCS | 11-99 | 12-105 | -24.6 | 129 | 129 | -12.1 | 127 | +12.9 | 127 | -13.1 | 122 | 0.47 | 68 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 1-8 | 2-10 | -26.7 | 130 | 130 | -11.4 | 125 | +15.7 | 130 | -16.1 | 128 | -3.04 | 89 |
| Connecticut | Ind | 1-8 | 1-11 | -28.7 | 131 | 131 | -15.1 | 131 | +13.3 | 128 | -19.0 | 131 | -4.18 | 106 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +20.2 | 1 | -7.9 | 21 | +15.0 | 5 | 6.57 | 11 |
| Michigan | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.8 | 6 | -10.8 | 9 | +15.8 | 3 | 7.39 | 8 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +20.0 | 5 | 12 | +4.8 | 39 | -14.5 | 3 | +14.2 | 10 | 9.35 | 3 |
| PennState | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +17.0 | 9 | 11 | +4.4 | 43 | -12.3 | 5 | +10.9 | 17 | 9.64 | 2 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.1 | 12 | 6 | +9.5 | 16 | -6.0 | 30 | +14.9 | 6 | 7.96 | 5 |
| Iowa | B10 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 20 | 13 | +1.3 | 67 | -12.0 | 6 | +13.4 | 12 | 6.26 | 13 |
| Purdue | B10 | 6-3 | 8-4 | +13.5 | 23 | 28 | +3.2 | 52 | -9.8 | 10 | +10.5 | 19 | 7.60 | 6 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 3-7 | 4-8 | +11.7 | 28 | 27 | +3.9 | 47 | -9.5 | 12 | -3.5 | 90 | 8.56 | 4 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 6-3 | 7-5 | +9.2 | 39 | 26 | +2.1 | 60 | -7.2 | 24 | +5.1 | 45 | 5.22 | 23 |
| Illinois | B10 | 4-6 | 5-7 | +2.6 | 67 | 78 | -6.1 | 107 | -8.7 | 15 | +1.4 | 62 | 7.54 | 7 |
| Indiana | B10 | 2-7 | 3-9 | +1.0 | 74 | 73 | -1.6 | 84 | -2.8 | 57 | -0.6 | 78 | 11.35 | 1 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 4-5 | 5-7 | +0.8 | 75 | 59 | -2.2 | 86 | -3.0 | 55 | +0.7 | 69 | 6.03 | 16 |
| Maryland | B10 | 5-4 | 6-6 | +0.3 | 78 | 75 | +2.6 | 56 | +3.0 | 97 | +4.7 | 48 | 6.19 | 14 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-6 | 3-9 | -6.3 | 102 | 98 | -6.1 | 106 | -0.2 | 79 | -6.3 | 103 | 4.82 | 27 |
The key to doing these rankings each week is just shaking the computer until the teams sort themselves out the way you want. I assume the playoff committee follows a similar approach.
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +35.5 | 1 | 1 | +13.5 | 5 | -21.7 | 1 | +20.7 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 9-0 | 12-0 | +12.9 | 25 | 32 | +7.8 | 22 | -4.2 | 43 | +13.7 | 11 | 0.72 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 9-0 | 12-0 | +17.5 | 7 | 5 | +8.4 | 19 | -8.4 | 18 | +15.2 | 4 | 0.59 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 9-0 | 10-2 | +14.2 | 21 | 15 | +11.3 | 9 | -2.3 | 63 | +14.2 | 9 | 0.10 | 4 |
Is the US Tennis Association a better football team than Oklahoma? Discuss.
Now the more interesting set:
[404 NOT FOUND]
Aw man... Justin Wilcox, why you got to do me dirty like that? I thought we were cool.
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 9-0 | 12-0 | +35.5 | 1 | 1 | +13.5 | 5 | -21.7 | 1 | +20.7 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 |
| Alabama | SEC | 8-1 | 11-1 | +24.2 | 3 | 3 | +16.5 | 2 | -8.2 | 19 | +14.4 | 8 | 0.56 | 6 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 8-1 | 10-2 | +17.1 | 8 | 10 | +9.6 | 14 | -6.7 | 27 | +16.3 | 2 | 0.52 | 7 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 9-0 | 10-2 | +14.2 | 21 | 15 | +11.3 | 9 | -2.3 | 63 | +14.2 | 9 | 0.45 | 8 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.6 | 17 | 24 | +1.5 | 63 | -11.8 | 7 | +14.9 | 7 | 0.39 | 9 |
| OhioState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +27.2 | 2 | 2 | +20.2 | 1 | -7.9 | 21 | +15.0 | 5 | 0.37 | 10 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.7 | 10 | 8 | +14.9 | 4 | -1.9 | 68 | +12.1 | 13 | 0.27 | 11 |
| Michigan | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.8 | 6 | -10.8 | 9 | +15.8 | 3 | 0.26 | 12 |
| Oregon | P12 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +11.9 | 27 | 25 | +8.7 | 17 | -2.8 | 56 | +10.5 | 18 | 0.20 | 14 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.1 | 12 | 6 | +9.5 | 16 | -6.0 | 30 | +14.9 | 6 | 0.09 | 16 |
NOTE: Georgia has two road games (against Tenn & GT) in the next three weeks.
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 8-1 | 10-2 | +5.1 | 60 | 64 | -4.0 | 93 | -7.9 | 20 | +9.5 | 22 | 0.75 | 5 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 9-0 | 12-0 | +12.9 | 25 | 32 | +7.8 | 22 | -4.2 | 43 | +13.7 | 11 | 0.60 | 9 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +14.6 | 17 | 24 | +1.5 | 63 | -11.8 | 7 | +14.9 | 7 | 0.59 | 10 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 8-1 | 10-2 | +17.1 | 8 | 10 | +9.6 | 14 | -6.7 | 27 | +16.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 13 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 9-0 | 10-2 | +14.2 | 21 | 15 | +11.3 | 9 | -2.3 | 63 | +14.2 | 9 | 0.54 | 15 |
| BYU | Ind | 8-2 | 10-2 | +10.5 | 33 | 44 | +5.9 | 33 | -3.8 | 46 | +11.2 | 16 | 0.50 | 19 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 10-2 | +16.1 | 12 | 6 | +9.5 | 16 | -6.0 | 30 | +14.9 | 6 | 0.46 | 20 |
| Iowa | B10 | 7-2 | 9-3 | +14.4 | 20 | 13 | +1.3 | 67 | -12.0 | 6 | +13.4 | 12 | 0.43 | 22 |
The number of teams I include in this list each week is pretty much whatever is needed to pull in Iowa and/or Sparty.
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-7 | 2-10 | -22.5 | 128 | 127 | -12.3 | 128 | +10.4 | 121 | -12.6 | 121 | 2.13 | |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-8 | 1-11 | -21.3 | 124 | 126 | -10.1 | 122 | +11.9 | 125 | -9.3 | 114 | 5.80 | |
| Arizona | P12 | 1-8 | 1-11 | -12.1 | 112 | 115 | -9.5 | 120 | +1.4 | 89 | -13.9 | 123 | 2.84 | |
| Duke | ACC | 3-6 | 3-9 | -10.8 | 108 | 108 | -6.0 | 105 | +5.0 | 107 | -6.1 | 101 | 1.27 | |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-6 | 3-9 | -6.3 | 102 | 98 | -6.1 | 106 | -0.2 | 79 | -6.3 | 103 | 4.82 | |
| Colorado | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -6.2 | 101 | 105 | -7.5 | 114 | -2.1 | 67 | -8.0 | 106 | 3.10 | |
| Stanford | P12 | 3-6 | 4-8 | -4.6 | 94 | 83 | -2.5 | 88 | +1.9 | 91 | -4.7 | 97 | 4.53 | |
| Missouri | SEC | 4-5 | 5-7 | -3.9 | 90 | 94 | +5.5 | 35 | +9.5 | 119 | -2.2 | 82 | 2.30 |
Looks like I forgot to copy a column. I'm not going to fix it, enjoy the emptiness in the table and your hearts.
BONUS: #UConnWatch
#13759 out of 13866 total teams (0.8%-ile) since 1873
#7419 out of 7454 total teams (0.5%-ile) since 1960
#4921 out of 4939 total teams (0.4%-ile) since 1980
#2700 out of 2708 total teams (0.3%-ile) since 2000
#1519 out of 1523 total teams (0.3%-ile) since 2010
#904 out of 906 total teams (0.2%-ile) since 2015
As I've mentioned before, the major issue is that the two teams "ahead" of 2021 UConn in recent years are 2019 Akron (0-12, 0.1%-ile since 1873) and 2019 UMass (1-11, 0.0%-ile since 1873). My silly ratings would have UConn a TD favorite over 2019 Akron. Basically impossible for them to catch them at this point. But still, we soldier on.
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last (two) week(s):
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #5 Wisconsin | V | #74 Rutgers | W | 52 | 3 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #14 BoiseState | V | #50 FresnoState | W | 40 | 14 |
| 11 | Fri | 2021-11-05 | #19 Utah | V | #94 Stanford | W | 52 | 7 |
| 10 | Sat | 2021-10-30 | #1 Georgia | N | #34 Florida | W | 34 | 7 |
| 10 | Sat | 2021-10-30 | #5 Wisconsin | H | #20 Iowa | W | 27 | 7 |
| 10 | Sat | 2021-10-30 | #38 Miami | V | #7 Pittsburgh | W | 38 | 34 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #67 SouthCarolina | H | #34 Florida | W | 40 | 17 |
| 10 | Sat | 2021-10-30 | #13 Auburn | H | #16 Mississippi | W | 31 | 20 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #23 Purdue | H | #12 MichiganState | W | 40 | 29 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #15 IowaState | H | #26 Texas | W | 30 | 7 |
And of the year (so far):
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #3 Alabama | V | #46 MississippiState | W | 49 | 9 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #5 Wisconsin | V | #74 Rutgers | W | 52 | 3 |
| 5 | Sat | 2021-09-25 | #8 NotreDame | N | #5 Wisconsin | W | 41 | 13 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #1 Georgia | H | #62 UAB | W | 56 | 7 |
| 7 | Sat | 2021-10-09 | #1 Georgia | V | #13 Auburn | W | 34 | 10 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #4 Michigan | H | #85 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #27 Oregon | V | #2 OhioState | W | 35 | 28 |
| 6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #4 Michigan | V | #5 Wisconsin | W | 38 | 17 |
| 9 | Sat | 2021-10-23 | #2 OhioState | V | #73 Indiana | W | 54 | 7 |
| 6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #1 Georgia | H | #31 Arkansas | W | 37 | 0 |
Literal LOL's at seeing Wisconsin up there.
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 266.5 over 536 games (including 3 MAC-tion games this week), which would rank #27 (out of 54 ratings systems) here: [LINK]
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | #4 Michigan | V | #9 PennState | 62% | 4.3 |
| Nov 13 | #16 Mississippi | H | #11 TexasAM | 55% | 1.8 |
| Nov 13 | #24 Baylor | H | #21 Oklahoma | 54% | 1.4 |
| Nov 13 | #18 NorthCarolinaState | V | #10 WakeForest | 38% | -4.5 |
| Nov 13 | #31 Arkansas | V | #52 LSU | 52% | 0.9 |
| Nov 13 | #40 Virginia | H | #8 NotreDame | 34% | -5.9 |
| Nov 13 | #54 Louisville | H | #46 Syracuse | 53% | 1.2 |
| Nov 13 | #49 Nevada | V | #60 SanDiegoState | 51% | 0.3 |
| Nov 13 | #2 OhioState | H | #23 Purdue | 86% | 15.9 |
| Nov 13 | #20 Iowa | H | #39 Minnesota | 70% | 7.4 |
| Nov 13 | #61 FloridaState | H | #37 Miami | 42% | -3.0 |
| Nov 13 | #15 Auburn | H | #45 MississippiState | 75% | 9.7 |
| Nov 13 | #1 Georgia | V | #29 Tennessee | 92% | 21.2 |
| Nov 13 | #38 KansasState | H | #57 WestVirginia | 65% | 5.7 |
| Nov 11 | #42 NorthCarolina | V | #6 Pittsburgh | 22% | -11.4 |
| Nov 13 | #59 CentralFlorida | V | #43 SMU | 35% | -5.6 |
| Nov 13 | #69 EastCarolina | V | #82 Memphis | 52% | 0.6 |
| Nov 13 | #44 Marshall | H | #62 UAB | 69% | 7.2 |
| Nov 13 | #74 Indiana | H | #75 Rutgers | 57% | 2.5 |
| Nov 13 | #81 Washington | H | #53 ArizonaState | 36% | -5.3 |
| Nov 13 | #79 BostonCollege | V | #73 GeorgiaTech | 40% | -3.5 |
| Nov 10 | #83 BallState | V | #84 NorthernIllinois | 45% | -1.8 |
| Nov 13 | #90 Missouri | H | #68 SouthCarolina | 39% | -4.1 |
| Nov 13 | #27 Oregon | H | #71 WashingtonState | 79% | 11.9 |
| Nov 13 | #17 OklahomaState | H | #64 TCU | 82% | 13.7 |
| Nov 13 | #41 AirForce | V | #85 ColoradoState | 72% | 8.4 |
| Nov 13 | #105 Tulane | H | #93 Tulsa | 50% | -0.2 |
| Nov 13 | #77 FloridaAtlantic | V | #97 OldDominion | 60% | 3.6 |
| Nov 9 | #89 Buffalo | V | #87 MiamiOH | 41% | -3.2 |
| Nov 13 | #91 Troy | H | #58 LouisianaLafayette | 30% | -7.5 |
| Nov 13 | #66 UtahState | V | #100 SanJoseState | 67% | 6.4 |
| Nov 13 | #14 IowaState | V | #86 TexasTech | 86% | 15.9 |
| Nov 13 | #78 Maryland | V | #12 MichiganState | 12% | -18.0 |
| Nov 13 | #107 Hawaii | V | #109 UNLV | 53% | 0.9 |
| Nov 10 | #106 KentState | V | #95 CentralMichigan | 36% | -5.0 |
| Nov 13 | #55 OregonState | H | #94 Stanford | 82% | 13.7 |
| Nov 13 | #113 NorthTexas | H | #96 UTEP | 37% | -4.6 |
| Nov 13 | #101 Colorado | V | #56 UCLA | 16% | -14.6 |
| Nov 13 | #115 GeorgiaSouthern | V | #119 TexasState | 52% | 0.7 |
| Nov 12 | #13 BoiseState | H | #92 Wyoming | 93% | 22.5 |
| Nov 13 | #111 Charlotte | V | #98 LouisianaTech | 28% | -8.6 |
| Nov 13 | #32 AppalachianState | H | #104 SouthAlabama | 90% | 19.4 |
| Nov 13 | #30 CoastalCarolina | H | #103 GeorgiaState | 90% | 20.1 |
| Nov 10 | #114 BowlingGreen | H | #65 Toledo | 18% | -13.3 |
| Nov 13 | #108 Duke | V | #63 VirginiaTech | 14% | -16.5 |
| Nov 13 | #120 ArkansasState | V | #117 LouisianaMonroe | 38% | -4.5 |
| Nov 13 | #102 Northwestern | V | #5 Wisconsin | 4% | -28.4 |
| Nov 13 | #112 Arizona | H | #19 Utah | 6% | -24.0 |
| Nov 12 | #7 Cincinnati | V | #110 SouthFlorida | 95% | 26.8 |
| Nov 9 | #118 Ohio | V | #76 EasternMichigan | 11% | -18.6 |
| Nov 13 | #130 Massachusetts | H | Maine | 37% | -4.7 |
| Nov 13 | #51 WesternKentucky | V | #121 Rice | 93% | 23.1 |
| Nov 13 | #116 NewMexico | V | #50 FresnoState | 6% | -25.1 |
| Nov 13 | #34 Florida | H | Samford | 96% | 27.4 |
| Nov 13 | #122 FIU | V | #88 MiddleTennessee | 10% | -19.6 |
| Nov 13 | #125 Temple | H | #35 Houston | 4% | -28.8 |
| Nov 13 | #48 Kentucky | V | #128 Vanderbilt | 96% | 27.8 |
| Nov 9 | #127 Akron | V | #70 WesternMichigan | 5% | -26.7 |
| Nov 13 | #124 Kansas | V | #26 Texas | 2% | -35.5 |
| Nov 13 | #126 SouthernMississippi | V | #25 UTSA | 2% | -36.9 |
| Nov 13 | #123 NewMexicoState | V | #3 Alabama | 1% | -47.2 |
| Nov 13 | #47 Army | H | Bucknell | 99% | 37.8 |
| Nov 13 | #22 Clemson | H | #131 Connecticut | 99% | 44.3 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 | #4 Michigan | V | #9 PennState | 62% | 4.3 |
| Nov 13 | #2 OhioState | H | #23 Purdue | 86% | 15.9 |
| Nov 13 | #20 Iowa | H | #39 Minnesota | 70% | 7.4 |
| Nov 13 | #74 Indiana | H | #75 Rutgers | 57% | 2.5 |
| Nov 13 | #78 Maryland | V | #12 MichiganState | 12% | -18.0 |
| Nov 13 | #102 Northwestern | V | #5 Wisconsin | 4% | -28.4 |
I swear to God, if we lose to this jNW team...
And hey: Hawaii-UNLV might be some late night (I assume) trasch action. I'm game.
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