FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 12

Maybe this is just an every-other-week column now. I used to try to update these on Sunday while watching the Vikings rip my heart out in new and clever ways, but Sports-Reference has been a little slower at updating scores as of late.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 9-0 12-0 +35.5 1 1 +13.5 5 -21.7 1 +20.7 1 2.20 51
OhioState B10 8-1 10-2 +27.2 2 2 +20.2 1 -7.9 21 +15.0 5 6.57 11
Alabama SEC 8-1 11-1 +24.2 3 3 +16.5 2 -8.2 19 +14.4 8 3.54 38
Michigan B10 8-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.8 6 -10.8 9 +15.8 3 7.39 8
Wisconsin B10 6-3 8-4 +20.0 5 12 +4.8 39 -14.5 3 +14.2 10 9.35 3
Pittsburgh ACC 7-2 9-3 +17.7 6 7 +16.4 3 -2.4 61 +7.5 30 0.64 63
Cincinnati Amer 9-0 12-0 +17.5 7 5 +8.4 19 -8.4 18 +15.2 4 -4.01 100
NotreDame Ind 8-1 10-2 +17.1 8 10 +9.6 14 -6.7 27 +16.3 2 5.97 17
PennState B10 6-3 8-4 +17.0 9 11 +4.4 43 -12.3 5 +10.9 17 9.64 2
WakeForest ACC 8-1 10-2 +16.7 10 8 +14.9 4 -1.9 68 +12.1 13 2.40 48
TexasAM SEC 7-2 9-3 +16.2 11 19 +1.5 64 -14.0 4 +11.6 14 1.69 55
MichiganState B10 8-1 10-2 +16.1 12 6 +9.5 16 -6.0 30 +14.9 6 7.96 5
BoiseState MWC 5-4 8-4 +16.0 13 22 +7.2 27 -9.0 13 +8.6 25 2.93 44
IowaState B12 6-3 8-4 +15.9 14 21 +7.7 23 -8.5 16 +8.0 28 4.63 30
Auburn SEC 6-3 8-4 +15.8 15 9 +7.3 26 -8.5 17 +9.6 21 6.88 10
Mississippi SEC 7-2 9-3 +15.7 16 14 +10.9 11 -4.7 38 +11.5 15 4.90 26
OklahomaState B12 8-1 10-2 +14.6 17 24 +1.5 63 -11.8 7 +14.9 7 3.45 39
NorthCarolinaState ACC 7-2 9-3 +14.5 18 23 +2.7 55 -11.8 8 +7.3 32 3.93 36
Utah P12 6-3 8-4 +14.4 19 33 +9.5 15 -5.3 34 +7.2 33 1.09 61
Iowa B10 7-2 9-3 +14.4 20 13 +1.3 67 -12.0 6 +13.4 12 6.26 13
Oklahoma B12 9-0 10-2 +14.2 21 15 +11.3 9 -2.3 63 +14.2 9 1.64 56
Clemson ACC 6-3 8-4 +13.6 22 20 -2.4 87 -15.6 2 +7.4 31 4.44 32
Purdue B10 6-3 8-4 +13.5 23 28 +3.2 52 -9.8 10 +10.5 19 7.60 6
Baylor B12 7-2 9-3 +13.3 24 17 +6.0 31 -7.0 25 +10.4 20 0.61 65
UTSA CUSA 9-0 12-0 +12.9 25 32 +7.8 22 -4.2 43 +13.7 11 -8.75 129
Texas B12 4-5 6-6 +12.1 26 18 +11.0 10 -1.7 72 +4.8 46 4.25 34
Oregon P12 8-1 10-2 +11.9 27 25 +8.7 17 -2.8 56 +10.5 18 1.29 58
Nebraska B10 3-7 4-8 +11.7 28 27 +3.9 47 -9.5 12 -3.5 90 8.56 4
Tennessee SEC 5-4 7-5 +11.7 29 29 +10.1 13 -2.4 60 +4.0 50 2.66 46
CoastalCarolina Sun 8-1 11-1 +11.5 30 30 +6.7 29 -4.9 37 +6.7 35 -11.58 131
Arkansas SEC 6-3 8-4 +10.7 31 31 +7.0 28 -3.6 50 +8.0 29 5.37 21
AppalachianState Sun 7-2 10-2 +10.7 32 40 +6.6 30 -3.7 47 +9.4 24 -4.68 108
BYU Ind 8-2 10-2 +10.5 33 44 +5.9 33 -3.8 46 +11.2 16 0.52 67
Florida SEC 4-5 6-6 +10.1 34 16 +5.3 36 -5.7 32 +0.8 65 3.44 40
Houston Amer 8-1 11-1 +10.0 35 35 +7.4 25 -2.2 66 +9.5 23 -9.78 130
Liberty Ind 7-3 8-4 +9.9 36 36 +3.7 50 -6.7 26 +3.4 53 -4.10 103
Miami ACC 5-4 7-5 +9.4 37 34 +5.8 34 -3.6 48 +6.2 39 5.42 20
KansasState B12 6-3 7-5 +9.3 38 37 -0.8 77 -9.5 11 +8.1 27 3.83 37
Minnesota B10 6-3 7-5 +9.2 39 26 +2.1 60 -7.2 24 +5.1 45 5.22 23
Virginia ACC 6-3 7-5 +8.8 40 47 +10.7 12 +1.8 90 +6.2 38 4.77 28
AirForce MWC 6-3 8-4 +8.7 41 43 +1.0 70 -7.5 23 +5.7 42 -1.64 79
NorthCarolina ACC 5-4 6-6 +8.5 42 51 +12.2 7 +3.2 98 +3.5 52 5.26 22
SMU Amer 7-2 9-3 +8.5 43 39 +7.9 21 -0.8 76 +4.8 47 -3.02 88
Marshall CUSA 6-3 8-4 +8.4 44 57 +4.0 46 -5.3 35 +0.3 71 -5.49 113
MississippiState SEC 5-4 7-5 +8.4 45 48 +3.7 49 -4.7 39 +5.1 44 6.11 15
Syracuse ACC 5-4 6-6 +8.0 46 41 +4.5 42 -4.3 42 +0.6 70 4.34 33
Army Ind 5-3 8-4 +7.9 47 52 +5.9 32 -1.9 69 +5.9 41 -2.89 86
Kentucky SEC 6-3 8-4 +7.8 48 46 +2.2 59 -5.3 33 +6.7 36 0.55 66
Nevada MWC 7-2 9-3 +7.7 49 42 +8.1 20 +0.4 82 +6.2 40 -2.02 84
FresnoState MWC 7-3 9-3 +7.7 50 38 +4.5 40 -3.0 54 +6.3 37 -4.74 109
WesternKentucky CUSA 5-4 7-5 +7.7 51 58 +11.5 8 +2.8 96 -0.2 75 -2.98 87
LSU SEC 4-5 6-6 +7.5 52 55 +4.1 45 -3.9 45 +1.9 60 6.27 12
ArizonaState P12 6-3 8-4 +7.5 53 62 +1.4 65 -6.2 29 +3.1 54 -1.74 81
Louisville ACC 4-5 6-6 +6.9 54 50 +4.5 41 -3.0 53 +0.8 67 5.03 24
OregonState P12 5-4 7-5 +6.8 55 45 +8.6 18 +1.1 87 +0.7 68 1.72 54
UCLA P12 5-4 7-5 +6.2 56 56 +7.5 24 +0.9 86 +2.0 59 1.63 57
WestVirginia B12 4-5 6-6 +5.9 57 49 -0.3 74 -6.4 28 +1.7 61 2.12 53
LouisianaLafayette Sun 8-1 10-2 +5.7 58 54 -0.9 78 -5.8 31 +8.4 26 -6.50 120
CentralFlorida Amer 6-3 8-4 +5.2 59 53 +2.9 53 -2.2 65 +4.0 49 -4.17 105
SanDiegoState MWC 8-1 10-2 +5.1 60 64 -4.0 93 -7.9 20 +9.5 22 -3.66 95
FloridaState ACC 3-6 4-8 +4.0 61 63 +2.5 57 -2.6 58 -4.0 92 5.72 19
UAB CUSA 6-3 7-5 +3.5 62 66 +1.3 66 -2.2 64 +2.1 58 -1.07 75
VirginiaTech ACC 4-5 5-7 +3.4 63 60 -4.8 96 -8.8 14 -1.9 81 4.11 35
TCU B12 4-5 5-7 +3.1 64 68 +4.3 44 +0.9 85 +0.0 73 3.43 41
Toledo MAC 4-5 7-5 +2.9 65 65 -0.8 76 -4.6 40 -3.7 91 -7.90 127
UtahState MWC 7-2 9-3 +2.8 66 72 +3.9 48 +2.0 92 +7.1 34 -4.09 102
Illinois B10 4-6 5-7 +2.6 67 78 -6.1 107 -8.7 15 +1.4 62 7.54 7
SouthCarolina SEC 5-4 6-6 +2.6 68 87 -1.3 81 -3.4 51 +4.0 51 4.71 29
EastCarolina Amer 5-4 6-6 +2.5 69 79 -0.2 73 -3.0 52 -0.2 74 -1.37 78
WesternMichigan MAC 5-4 7-5 +2.5 70 61 +2.9 54 +0.6 83 +3.0 55 -0.98 74
WashingtonState P12 5-4 7-5 +2.3 71 70 -1.8 85 -4.1 44 +1.1 63 1.24 60
USC P12 4-5 5-7 +1.8 72 71 +5.1 37 +2.7 95 -2.5 85 2.96 43
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-6 4-8 +1.5 73 74 +1.1 68 -1.4 73 -5.4 100 6.95 9
Indiana B10 2-7 3-9 +1.0 74 73 -1.6 84 -2.8 57 -0.6 78 11.35 1
Rutgers B10 4-5 5-7 +0.8 75 59 -2.2 86 -3.0 55 +0.7 69 6.03 16
EasternMichigan MAC 6-3 8-4 +0.6 76 84 +5.0 38 +4.8 103 +2.7 56 -6.64 121
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 5-4 7-5 +0.5 77 69 -1.4 82 -2.3 62 -2.3 83 -4.32 107
Maryland B10 5-4 6-6 +0.3 78 75 +2.6 56 +3.0 97 +4.7 48 6.19 14
BostonCollege ACC 5-4 6-6 +0.3 79 86 -4.5 95 -5.0 36 -1.2 79 -0.62 72
California P12 3-6 4-8 -0.2 80 67 -3.2 91 -4.5 41 -9.2 113 -0.30 71
Washington P12 4-5 5-7 -0.2 81 76 -7.1 112 -7.6 22 -4.6 96 0.23 70
Memphis Amer 5-4 6-6 -0.4 82 89 +2.0 62 +2.4 93 +0.0 72 -1.77 82
BallState MAC 5-4 7-5 -0.9 83 77 -1.1 80 +0.3 80 +2.3 57 -1.27 76
NorthernIllinois MAC 6-3 7-5 -1.5 84 81 +3.6 51 +6.2 114 +5.2 43 -1.83 83
ColoradoState MWC 3-6 4-8 -2.2 85 80 -3.0 90 -1.8 71 -6.8 105 -0.85 73
TexasTech B12 5-4 5-7 -2.4 86 88 +2.0 61 +4.9 104 +0.8 66 2.37 49
MiamiOH MAC 4-5 6-6 -2.7 87 82 -5.1 98 -2.6 59 -2.5 86 -5.84 115
MiddleTennessee CUSA 4-5 6-6 -3.4 88 85 +0.5 71 +3.4 99 -5.3 99 -6.23 117
Buffalo MAC 4-5 5-7 -3.6 89 90 +2.3 58 +4.9 105 -8.3 109 -6.65 122
Missouri SEC 4-5 5-7 -3.9 90 94 +5.5 35 +9.5 119 -2.2 82 2.30 50
Troy Sun 5-4 6-6 -4.2 91 93 -5.2 99 -1.1 74 -2.7 87 -6.43 119
Wyoming MWC 5-4 6-6 -4.4 92 95 -4.9 97 -0.5 78 -1.9 80 -3.77 97
Tulsa Amer 3-6 5-7 -4.4 93 99 -3.7 92 +0.4 81 -4.2 94 0.26 69
Stanford P12 3-6 4-8 -4.6 94 83 -2.5 88 +1.9 91 -4.7 97 4.53 31
CentralMichigan MAC 5-4 6-6 -5.0 95 102 -1.4 83 +3.6 100 -3.1 88 -5.58 114
UTEP CUSA 6-3 8-4 -5.3 96 91 -6.3 108 -0.6 77 -0.3 76 -7.79 126
OldDominion CUSA 3-6 5-7 -5.5 97 100 -5.3 100 -0.8 75 -9.6 115 -3.40 92
LouisianaTech CUSA 2-7 4-8 -5.6 98 96 +0.5 72 +5.1 109 -9.8 116 -3.53 93
Navy Amer 2-7 3-9 -5.6 99 92 -7.2 113 -1.9 70 -4.1 93 4.97 25
SanJoseState MWC 5-5 6-6 -6.1 100 101 -9.6 121 -3.6 49 -3.3 89 -3.98 99
Colorado P12 3-6 4-8 -6.2 101 105 -7.5 114 -2.1 67 -8.0 106 3.10 42
Northwestern B10 3-6 3-9 -6.3 102 98 -6.1 106 -0.2 79 -6.3 103 4.82 27
GeorgiaState Sun 4-5 5-7 -6.4 103 106 -5.7 104 +1.2 88 -0.4 77 -1.72 80
SouthAlabama Sun 5-4 5-7 -6.5 104 97 -5.5 101 +0.7 84 -6.3 102 -7.40 124
Tulane Amer 1-8 2-10 -6.9 105 104 -0.3 75 +5.9 113 -8.6 110 0.77 62
KentState MAC 5-4 7-5 -7.6 106 107 +1.1 69 +9.8 120 +1.0 64 -6.38 118
Hawaii MWC 4-6 5-8 -7.9 107 103 -2.9 89 +5.0 106 -5.2 98 -4.12 104
Duke ACC 3-6 3-9 -10.8 108 108 -6.0 105 +5.0 107 -6.1 101 1.27 59
UNLV MWC 1-8 2-10 -11.2 109 113 -6.6 110 +3.9 102 -10.3 119 2.42 47
SouthFlorida Amer 2-7 2-10 -11.8 110 111 -4.3 94 +7.2 117 -10.0 117 0.64 64
Charlotte CUSA 5-4 6-6 -11.9 111 109 -6.5 109 +5.8 111 -4.4 95 -6.65 123
Arizona P12 1-8 1-11 -12.1 112 115 -9.5 120 +1.4 89 -13.9 123 2.84 45
NorthTexas CUSA 3-6 4-8 -12.3 113 116 -6.8 111 +5.0 108 -10.3 118 -4.99 110
BowlingGreen MAC 3-6 4-8 -12.8 114 110 -8.8 118 +3.8 101 -8.7 111 -5.43 112
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 2-7 3-9 -14.4 115 117 -8.2 116 +5.6 110 -12.3 120 -2.57 85
NewMexico MWC 3-6 3-9 -15.3 116 112 -12.6 129 +2.4 94 -8.9 112 -1.37 77
LouisianaMonroe Sun 4-5 5-7 -15.4 117 114 -5.7 103 +11.1 122 -2.4 84 -3.06 90
Ohio MAC 2-7 3-9 -15.8 118 119 -8.3 117 +6.8 116 -14.0 124 -6.01 116
TexasState Sun 3-6 4-8 -17.4 119 120 -10.4 123 +7.4 118 -8.0 107 -7.52 125
ArkansasState Sun 1-8 2-10 -17.6 120 118 -1.0 79 +16.3 131 -15.4 126 -4.05 101
Rice CUSA 3-6 3-9 -18.0 121 121 -11.8 126 +6.7 115 -6.8 104 -3.11 91
FIU CUSA 1-8 2-10 -20.8 122 124 -8.1 115 +11.9 124 -18.8 130 -8.40 128
NewMexicoState Ind 1-8 2-10 -21.1 123 125 -5.7 102 +15.4 129 -15.7 127 -3.98 98
Kansas B12 1-8 1-11 -21.3 124 126 -10.1 122 +11.9 125 -9.3 114 5.80 18
Temple Amer 3-6 3-9 -21.4 125 122 -10.8 124 +11.5 123 -8.1 108 -3.70 96
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-8 2-10 -21.9 126 123 -15.0 130 +5.9 112 -17.7 129 -5.33 111
Akron MAC 2-7 2-10 -22.1 127 128 -9.4 119 +12.9 126 -14.0 125 -3.60 94
Vanderbilt SEC 2-7 2-10 -22.5 128 127 -12.3 128 +10.4 121 -12.6 121 2.13 52
FCS Z_FCS 11-99 12-105 -24.6 129 129 -12.1 127 +12.9 127 -13.1 122 0.47 68
Massachusetts Ind 1-8 2-10 -26.7 130 130 -11.4 125 +15.7 130 -16.1 128 -3.04 89
Connecticut Ind 1-8 1-11 -28.7 131 131 -15.1 131 +13.3 128 -19.0 131 -4.18 106

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 8-1 10-2 +27.2 2 2 +20.2 1 -7.9 21 +15.0 5 6.57 11
Michigan B10 8-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.8 6 -10.8 9 +15.8 3 7.39 8
Wisconsin B10 6-3 8-4 +20.0 5 12 +4.8 39 -14.5 3 +14.2 10 9.35 3
PennState B10 6-3 8-4 +17.0 9 11 +4.4 43 -12.3 5 +10.9 17 9.64 2
MichiganState B10 8-1 10-2 +16.1 12 6 +9.5 16 -6.0 30 +14.9 6 7.96 5
Iowa B10 7-2 9-3 +14.4 20 13 +1.3 67 -12.0 6 +13.4 12 6.26 13
Purdue B10 6-3 8-4 +13.5 23 28 +3.2 52 -9.8 10 +10.5 19 7.60 6
Nebraska B10 3-7 4-8 +11.7 28 27 +3.9 47 -9.5 12 -3.5 90 8.56 4
Minnesota B10 6-3 7-5 +9.2 39 26 +2.1 60 -7.2 24 +5.1 45 5.22 23
Illinois B10 4-6 5-7 +2.6 67 78 -6.1 107 -8.7 15 +1.4 62 7.54 7
Indiana B10 2-7 3-9 +1.0 74 73 -1.6 84 -2.8 57 -0.6 78 11.35 1
Rutgers B10 4-5 5-7 +0.8 75 59 -2.2 86 -3.0 55 +0.7 69 6.03 16
Maryland B10 5-4 6-6 +0.3 78 75 +2.6 56 +3.0 97 +4.7 48 6.19 14
Northwestern B10 3-6 3-9 -6.3 102 98 -6.1 106 -0.2 79 -6.3 103 4.82 27

The key to doing these rankings each week is just shaking the computer until the teams sort themselves out the way you want. I assume the playoff committee follows a similar approach.

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 9-0 12-0 +35.5 1 1 +13.5 5 -21.7 1 +20.7 1 0.89 1
UTSA CUSA 9-0 12-0 +12.9 25 32 +7.8 22 -4.2 43 +13.7 11 0.72 2
Cincinnati Amer 9-0 12-0 +17.5 7 5 +8.4 19 -8.4 18 +15.2 4 0.59 3
Oklahoma B12 9-0 10-2 +14.2 21 15 +11.3 9 -2.3 63 +14.2 9 0.10 4

Is the US Tennis Association a better football team than Oklahoma? Discuss.

Now the more interesting set:

[404 NOT FOUND]

Aw man... Justin Wilcox, why you got to do me dirty like that? I thought we were cool.

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 9-0 12-0 +35.5 1 1 +13.5 5 -21.7 1 +20.7 1 1.00 1
Alabama SEC 8-1 11-1 +24.2 3 3 +16.5 2 -8.2 19 +14.4 8 0.56 6
NotreDame Ind 8-1 10-2 +17.1 8 10 +9.6 14 -6.7 27 +16.3 2 0.52 7
Oklahoma B12 9-0 10-2 +14.2 21 15 +11.3 9 -2.3 63 +14.2 9 0.45 8
OklahomaState B12 8-1 10-2 +14.6 17 24 +1.5 63 -11.8 7 +14.9 7 0.39 9
OhioState B10 8-1 10-2 +27.2 2 2 +20.2 1 -7.9 21 +15.0 5 0.37 10
WakeForest ACC 8-1 10-2 +16.7 10 8 +14.9 4 -1.9 68 +12.1 13 0.27 11
Michigan B10 8-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.8 6 -10.8 9 +15.8 3 0.26 12
Oregon P12 8-1 10-2 +11.9 27 25 +8.7 17 -2.8 56 +10.5 18 0.20 14
MichiganState B10 8-1 10-2 +16.1 12 6 +9.5 16 -6.0 30 +14.9 6 0.09 16

NOTE: Georgia has two road games (against Tenn & GT) in the next three weeks.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
SanDiegoState MWC 8-1 10-2 +5.1 60 64 -4.0 93 -7.9 20 +9.5 22 0.75 5
UTSA CUSA 9-0 12-0 +12.9 25 32 +7.8 22 -4.2 43 +13.7 11 0.60 9
OklahomaState B12 8-1 10-2 +14.6 17 24 +1.5 63 -11.8 7 +14.9 7 0.59 10
NotreDame Ind 8-1 10-2 +17.1 8 10 +9.6 14 -6.7 27 +16.3 2 0.55 13
Oklahoma B12 9-0 10-2 +14.2 21 15 +11.3 9 -2.3 63 +14.2 9 0.54 15
BYU Ind 8-2 10-2 +10.5 33 44 +5.9 33 -3.8 46 +11.2 16 0.50 19
MichiganState B10 8-1 10-2 +16.1 12 6 +9.5 16 -6.0 30 +14.9 6 0.46 20
Iowa B10 7-2 9-3 +14.4 20 13 +1.3 67 -12.0 6 +13.4 12 0.43 22

The number of teams I include in this list each week is pretty much whatever is needed to pull in Iowa and/or Sparty.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-7 2-10 -22.5 128 127 -12.3 128 +10.4 121 -12.6 121 2.13
Kansas B12 1-8 1-11 -21.3 124 126 -10.1 122 +11.9 125 -9.3 114 5.80
Arizona P12 1-8 1-11 -12.1 112 115 -9.5 120 +1.4 89 -13.9 123 2.84
Duke ACC 3-6 3-9 -10.8 108 108 -6.0 105 +5.0 107 -6.1 101 1.27
Northwestern B10 3-6 3-9 -6.3 102 98 -6.1 106 -0.2 79 -6.3 103 4.82
Colorado P12 3-6 4-8 -6.2 101 105 -7.5 114 -2.1 67 -8.0 106 3.10
Stanford P12 3-6 4-8 -4.6 94 83 -2.5 88 +1.9 91 -4.7 97 4.53
Missouri SEC 4-5 5-7 -3.9 90 94 +5.5 35 +9.5 119 -2.2 82 2.30

Looks like I forgot to copy a column. I'm not going to fix it, enjoy the emptiness in the table and your hearts.

BONUS: #UConnWatch

#13759 out of 13866 total teams (0.8%-ile) since 1873

#7419 out of 7454 total teams (0.5%-ile) since 1960

#4921 out of 4939 total teams (0.4%-ile) since 1980

#2700 out of 2708 total teams (0.3%-ile) since 2000

#1519 out of 1523 total teams (0.3%-ile) since 2010

#904 out of 906 total teams (0.2%-ile) since 2015

As I've mentioned before, the major issue is that the two teams "ahead" of 2021 UConn in recent years are 2019 Akron (0-12, 0.1%-ile since 1873) and 2019 UMass (1-11, 0.0%-ile since 1873). My silly ratings would have UConn a TD favorite over 2019 Akron. Basically impossible for them to catch them at this point. But still, we soldier on.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last (two) week(s):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #5 Wisconsin V #74 Rutgers W 52 3
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #14 BoiseState V #50 FresnoState W 40 14
11 Fri 2021-11-05 #19 Utah V #94 Stanford W 52 7
10 Sat 2021-10-30 #1 Georgia N #34 Florida W 34 7
10 Sat 2021-10-30 #5 Wisconsin H #20 Iowa W 27 7
10 Sat 2021-10-30 #38 Miami V #7 Pittsburgh W 38 34
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #67 SouthCarolina H #34 Florida W 40 17
10 Sat 2021-10-30 #13 Auburn H #16 Mississippi W 31 20
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #23 Purdue H #12 MichiganState W 40 29
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #15 IowaState H #26 Texas W 30 7

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #3 Alabama V #46 MississippiState W 49 9
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #5 Wisconsin V #74 Rutgers W 52 3
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #8 NotreDame N #5 Wisconsin W 41 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #62 UAB W 56 7
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #13 Auburn W 34 10
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #4 Michigan H #85 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #27 Oregon V #2 OhioState W 35 28
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #4 Michigan V #5 Wisconsin W 38 17
9 Sat 2021-10-23 #2 OhioState V #73 Indiana W 54 7
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #31 Arkansas W 37 0

Literal LOL's at seeing Wisconsin up there.

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 266.5 over 536 games (including 3 MAC-tion games this week), which would rank #27 (out of 54 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Nov 13 #4 Michigan V #9 PennState 62% 4.3
Nov 13 #16 Mississippi H #11 TexasAM 55% 1.8
Nov 13 #24 Baylor H #21 Oklahoma 54% 1.4
Nov 13 #18 NorthCarolinaState V #10 WakeForest 38% -4.5
Nov 13 #31 Arkansas V #52 LSU 52% 0.9
Nov 13 #40 Virginia H #8 NotreDame 34% -5.9
Nov 13 #54 Louisville H #46 Syracuse 53% 1.2
Nov 13 #49 Nevada V #60 SanDiegoState 51% 0.3
Nov 13 #2 OhioState H #23 Purdue 86% 15.9
Nov 13 #20 Iowa H #39 Minnesota 70% 7.4
Nov 13 #61 FloridaState H #37 Miami 42% -3.0
Nov 13 #15 Auburn H #45 MississippiState 75% 9.7
Nov 13 #1 Georgia V #29 Tennessee 92% 21.2
Nov 13 #38 KansasState H #57 WestVirginia 65% 5.7
Nov 11 #42 NorthCarolina V #6 Pittsburgh 22% -11.4
Nov 13 #59 CentralFlorida V #43 SMU 35% -5.6
Nov 13 #69 EastCarolina V #82 Memphis 52% 0.6
Nov 13 #44 Marshall H #62 UAB 69% 7.2
Nov 13 #74 Indiana H #75 Rutgers 57% 2.5
Nov 13 #81 Washington H #53 ArizonaState 36% -5.3
Nov 13 #79 BostonCollege V #73 GeorgiaTech 40% -3.5
Nov 10 #83 BallState V #84 NorthernIllinois 45% -1.8
Nov 13 #90 Missouri H #68 SouthCarolina 39% -4.1
Nov 13 #27 Oregon H #71 WashingtonState 79% 11.9
Nov 13 #17 OklahomaState H #64 TCU 82% 13.7
Nov 13 #41 AirForce V #85 ColoradoState 72% 8.4
Nov 13 #105 Tulane H #93 Tulsa 50% -0.2
Nov 13 #77 FloridaAtlantic V #97 OldDominion 60% 3.6
Nov 9 #89 Buffalo V #87 MiamiOH 41% -3.2
Nov 13 #91 Troy H #58 LouisianaLafayette 30% -7.5
Nov 13 #66 UtahState V #100 SanJoseState 67% 6.4
Nov 13 #14 IowaState V #86 TexasTech 86% 15.9
Nov 13 #78 Maryland V #12 MichiganState 12% -18.0
Nov 13 #107 Hawaii V #109 UNLV 53% 0.9
Nov 10 #106 KentState V #95 CentralMichigan 36% -5.0
Nov 13 #55 OregonState H #94 Stanford 82% 13.7
Nov 13 #113 NorthTexas H #96 UTEP 37% -4.6
Nov 13 #101 Colorado V #56 UCLA 16% -14.6
Nov 13 #115 GeorgiaSouthern V #119 TexasState 52% 0.7
Nov 12 #13 BoiseState H #92 Wyoming 93% 22.5
Nov 13 #111 Charlotte V #98 LouisianaTech 28% -8.6
Nov 13 #32 AppalachianState H #104 SouthAlabama 90% 19.4
Nov 13 #30 CoastalCarolina H #103 GeorgiaState 90% 20.1
Nov 10 #114 BowlingGreen H #65 Toledo 18% -13.3
Nov 13 #108 Duke V #63 VirginiaTech 14% -16.5
Nov 13 #120 ArkansasState V #117 LouisianaMonroe 38% -4.5
Nov 13 #102 Northwestern V #5 Wisconsin 4% -28.4
Nov 13 #112 Arizona H #19 Utah 6% -24.0
Nov 12 #7 Cincinnati V #110 SouthFlorida 95% 26.8
Nov 9 #118 Ohio V #76 EasternMichigan 11% -18.6
Nov 13 #130 Massachusetts H Maine 37% -4.7
Nov 13 #51 WesternKentucky V #121 Rice 93% 23.1
Nov 13 #116 NewMexico V #50 FresnoState 6% -25.1
Nov 13 #34 Florida H Samford 96% 27.4
Nov 13 #122 FIU V #88 MiddleTennessee 10% -19.6
Nov 13 #125 Temple H #35 Houston 4% -28.8
Nov 13 #48 Kentucky V #128 Vanderbilt 96% 27.8
Nov 9 #127 Akron V #70 WesternMichigan 5% -26.7
Nov 13 #124 Kansas V #26 Texas 2% -35.5
Nov 13 #126 SouthernMississippi V #25 UTSA 2% -36.9
Nov 13 #123 NewMexicoState V #3 Alabama 1% -47.2
Nov 13 #47 Army H Bucknell 99% 37.8
Nov 13 #22 Clemson H #131 Connecticut 99% 44.3

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Nov 13 #4 Michigan V #9 PennState 62% 4.3
Nov 13 #2 OhioState H #23 Purdue 86% 15.9
Nov 13 #20 Iowa H #39 Minnesota 70% 7.4
Nov 13 #74 Indiana H #75 Rutgers 57% 2.5
Nov 13 #78 Maryland V #12 MichiganState 12% -18.0
Nov 13 #102 Northwestern V #5 Wisconsin 4% -28.4

I swear to God, if we lose to this jNW team...

And hey: Hawaii-UNLV might be some late night (I assume) trasch action. I'm game.