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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 13

By on Nov 17, 2021, 11:09pm CST +

TOM E. PUSKAR/TIMES-GAZETTE.COM / USA TODAY NETWORK

It's my birthday on (X)day! However, I am getting my COVID-booster shot on (X-1)day. So my birthday may not be the most enjoyable. Hopefully my sportsball teams will win for me and make it all worthwhile.

(my favorite pro-sportsball team is the Vikings, who will not make it all worthwhile)

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 10-0 12-0 +35.3 1 1 +13.3 4 -21.7 1 +20.8 1 1.60 53
OhioState B10 9-1 10-2 +27.6 2 2 +22.0 1 -6.6 24 +15.5 4 6.02 13
Alabama SEC 9-1 11-1 +24.6 3 3 +16.0 3 -9.3 13 +12.7 10 3.22 40
Michigan B10 9-1 10-2 +23.1 4 4 +11.7 6 -11.0 8 +17.0 3 6.63 10
Wisconsin B10 7-3 9-3 +19.5 5 5 +5.0 37 -14.0 3 +13.1 9 8.99 2
NotreDame Ind 9-1 11-1 +19.1 6 8 +8.2 18 -10.0 10 +17.3 2 5.62 15
OklahomaState B12 9-1 11-1 +16.9 7 17 +4.1 45 -11.9 6 +14.9 5 2.89 42
WakeForest ACC 9-1 10-2 +16.9 8 10 +16.6 2 -0.2 79 +13.5 8 2.58 45
Cincinnati Amer 10-0 12-0 +16.6 9 7 +9.1 15 -6.9 22 +14.7 7 -3.75 96
Mississippi SEC 8-2 10-2 +16.4 10 16 +11.7 7 -4.6 40 +12.4 13 4.98 23
Pittsburgh ACC 8-2 10-2 +16.0 11 6 +13.0 5 -3.7 48 +7.8 29 -0.55 70
PennState B10 6-4 7-5 +15.8 12 9 +3.2 51 -12.5 5 +8.4 27 8.86 3
MichiganState B10 9-1 10-2 +15.3 13 12 +8.8 16 -5.7 30 +14.9 6 7.20 5
BoiseState MWC 6-4 8-4 +15.1 14 13 +5.8 35 -9.4 12 +8.7 25 3.09 41
NorthCarolinaState ACC 7-3 9-3 +15.1 15 18 +3.8 46 -11.5 7 +7.0 31 4.36 30
TexasAM SEC 7-3 9-3 +14.9 16 11 +0.7 72 -13.7 4 +9.6 21 1.35 54
Baylor B12 8-2 9-3 +14.1 17 24 +4.4 42 -9.2 14 +11.6 15 0.09 69
IowaState B12 6-4 7-5 +14.1 18 14 +7.2 24 -7.3 20 +6.1 40 4.31 33
Auburn SEC 6-4 7-5 +13.7 19 15 +7.6 22 -6.4 26 +6.9 33 7.11 6
Utah P12 7-3 9-3 +12.9 20 19 +9.5 13 -3.7 49 +7.3 30 0.95 62
Iowa B10 8-2 9-3 +12.7 21 20 +0.7 71 -10.9 9 +12.7 11 4.89 25
Oklahoma B12 9-1 10-2 +12.7 22 21 +9.1 14 -3.0 54 +12.2 14 1.27 55
Clemson ACC 7-3 8-4 +12.6 23 22 -2.1 84 -14.4 2 +6.7 35 4.35 32
Oregon P12 9-1 10-2 +12.0 24 27 +8.7 17 -2.9 58 +10.9 17 1.08 59
Purdue B10 6-4 8-4 +12.0 25 23 +4.1 44 -7.6 19 +9.0 23 7.04 7
AppalachianState Sun 8-2 10-2 +11.2 26 32 +6.1 30 -4.8 35 +9.4 22 -4.69 109
UTSA CUSA 10-0 12-0 +10.9 27 25 +6.6 27 -3.4 51 +12.5 12 -7.94 129
Nebraska B10 3-7 4-8 +10.7 28 28 +3.2 50 -9.1 15 -4.2 92 7.65 4
SMU Amer 8-2 9-3 +10.6 29 43 +9.9 11 -0.9 72 +6.7 34 -3.02 91
Tennessee SEC 5-5 7-5 +10.6 30 29 +9.6 12 -1.7 65 +3.2 49 2.13 48
Arkansas SEC 7-3 8-4 +10.5 31 31 +4.7 40 -5.4 32 +8.9 24 5.11 21
Houston Amer 9-1 11-1 +10.4 32 35 +6.9 26 -3.0 56 +10.2 19 -9.10 130
BYU Ind 8-2 10-2 +10.4 33 33 +5.8 34 -3.8 47 +11.4 16 0.59 65
Liberty Ind 7-3 8-4 +10.1 34 36 +4.1 43 -6.4 25 +3.7 47 -3.67 95
MississippiState SEC 6-4 7-5 +10.0 35 45 +5.9 31 -4.0 44 +6.9 32 6.02 12
Louisville ACC 5-5 7-5 +9.8 36 54 +4.9 38 -5.5 31 +2.5 55 4.53 28
KansasState B12 7-3 8-4 +9.8 37 38 -0.3 76 -9.6 11 +8.4 26 3.29 39
AirForce MWC 7-3 8-4 +9.6 38 41 +2.2 58 -7.2 21 +6.5 36 -1.53 79
Army Ind 6-3 8-4 +9.4 39 47 +6.6 29 -2.9 57 +6.0 41 -2.54 85
CoastalCarolina Sun 8-2 10-2 +9.4 40 30 +7.2 25 -2.5 60 +4.2 46 -11.45 131
NorthCarolina ACC 5-5 6-6 +9.2 41 42 +10.5 9 +0.6 82 +2.4 56 5.13 19
Minnesota B10 6-4 7-5 +8.4 42 39 +1.7 61 -6.9 23 +3.6 48 4.23 34
Florida SEC 5-5 6-6 +8.0 43 34 +6.6 28 -2.4 62 -0.2 73 3.55 36
Miami ACC 5-5 7-5 +8.0 44 37 +5.8 32 -2.6 59 +3.0 51 5.05 22
Texas B12 4-6 5-7 +7.9 45 26 +10.3 10 +1.6 90 +1.2 63 4.35 31
FresnoState MWC 8-3 9-3 +7.8 46 50 +4.6 41 -3.0 55 +6.4 38 -4.97 110
ArizonaState P12 7-3 8-4 +7.4 47 53 +2.7 56 -4.8 36 +4.5 44 -1.95 82
LSU SEC 4-6 5-7 +7.4 48 52 +2.0 59 -6.1 27 +0.6 66 6.06 11
Marshall CUSA 6-4 7-5 +7.4 49 44 +2.9 55 -5.4 33 -0.6 76 -5.15 112
WesternKentucky CUSA 6-4 7-5 +7.4 50 51 +11.1 8 +3.0 98 +1.0 64 -3.53 93
LouisianaLafayette Sun 9-1 10-2 +7.0 51 58 +0.1 75 -5.9 29 +9.9 20 -6.38 119
Nevada MWC 7-3 8-4 +6.9 52 49 +7.6 21 +0.7 83 +5.2 42 -2.41 83
Virginia ACC 6-4 7-5 +6.8 53 40 +7.7 20 +0.9 85 +4.7 43 4.66 26
OregonState P12 6-4 7-5 +6.7 54 55 +7.4 23 +0.1 80 +1.2 62 1.02 61
Kentucky SEC 7-3 8-4 +6.7 55 48 +1.6 63 -4.6 37 +6.4 37 0.48 66
UCLA P12 6-4 7-5 +6.6 56 56 +8.1 19 +1.1 87 +2.3 57 1.19 57
UAB CUSA 7-3 8-4 +5.7 57 62 +1.6 66 -4.0 45 +4.5 45 -0.98 73
Syracuse ACC 5-5 5-7 +5.4 58 46 +1.8 60 -4.1 43 +0.3 70 5.13 18
SanDiegoState MWC 9-1 10-2 +5.0 59 60 -4.7 97 -8.4 16 +10.7 18 -4.14 102
UtahState MWC 8-2 10-2 +4.8 60 66 +5.8 33 +1.9 92 +8.2 28 -4.45 106
FloridaState ACC 4-6 5-7 +4.6 61 61 +2.9 54 -2.5 61 -1.8 82 5.74 14
Toledo MAC 5-5 7-5 +4.4 62 65 +1.0 69 -4.3 42 -2.6 86 -7.85 128
VirginiaTech ACC 5-5 6-6 +4.3 63 63 -3.0 89 -7.8 18 -1.0 78 3.54 37
WestVirginia B12 4-6 5-7 +4.0 64 57 -1.0 79 -5.3 34 +0.3 69 1.88 51
CentralFlorida Amer 6-4 8-4 +3.6 65 59 +3.3 49 -0.3 77 +2.9 52 -3.65 94
Rutgers B10 5-5 6-6 +3.4 66 75 -1.0 78 -4.4 41 +2.2 58 5.12 20
EastCarolina Amer 6-4 7-5 +2.6 67 69 -0.5 77 -3.1 53 +1.3 61 -1.55 80
WashingtonState P12 5-5 6-6 +2.0 68 71 -1.6 81 -3.7 50 +0.8 65 1.17 58
BostonCollege ACC 6-4 7-5 +1.9 69 79 -2.6 87 -4.6 38 +0.5 68 -0.61 71
Illinois B10 4-6 5-7 +1.8 70 67 -6.4 106 -8.3 17 +0.2 72 6.68 9
USC P12 4-5 5-7 +1.4 71 72 +4.7 39 +2.8 96 -2.5 85 2.65 44
SouthCarolina SEC 5-5 6-6 +1.0 72 68 -2.6 85 -3.4 52 +1.5 60 4.04 35
MiamiOH MAC 5-5 7-5 +0.1 73 87 -3.6 92 -3.9 46 -1.5 81 -6.03 115
WesternMichigan MAC 6-4 7-5 +0.1 74 70 +2.5 57 +2.9 97 +2.9 53 -1.51 77
TCU B12 4-6 5-7 -0.1 75 64 +3.8 47 +3.8 101 -0.3 75 3.44 38
Memphis Amer 5-5 6-6 -0.3 76 82 +1.6 64 +1.7 91 -1.2 80 -1.53 78
Washington P12 4-6 5-7 -0.3 77 81 -5.4 102 -5.9 28 -5.2 95 0.14 68
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-7 3-9 -0.4 78 73 +1.6 62 +0.9 84 -7.3 106 6.68 8
BallState MAC 5-5 6-6 -0.8 79 83 -1.3 80 -0.4 76 +0.6 67 -1.07 75
California P12 3-6 4-8 -0.8 80 80 -3.9 94 -4.6 39 -9.5 116 -0.74 72
TexasTech B12 6-4 6-6 -1.1 81 86 +3.1 52 +4.8 105 +2.7 54 1.81 52
Maryland B10 5-5 5-7 -1.2 82 78 +1.6 65 +3.4 100 +3.0 50 5.24 17
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 5-5 6-6 -1.4 83 77 -2.6 86 -1.8 64 -4.3 93 -4.24 103
MiddleTennessee CUSA 5-5 6-6 -1.4 84 88 +1.1 68 +1.9 93 -5.0 94 -6.21 117
NorthernIllinois MAC 7-3 8-4 -1.5 85 84 +2.9 53 +5.6 110 +6.1 39 -2.49 84
EasternMichigan MAC 6-4 7-5 -1.9 86 76 +3.4 48 +5.4 109 -1.1 79 -6.48 120
CentralMichigan MAC 6-4 7-5 -2.6 87 95 +0.4 74 +3.2 99 -0.3 74 -5.57 114
ColoradoState MWC 3-7 4-8 -2.6 88 85 -2.8 88 -1.1 70 -7.4 107 -1.01 74
Missouri SEC 5-5 5-7 -3.0 89 90 +5.3 36 +8.7 118 +0.2 71 2.25 47
Indiana B10 2-8 2-10 -3.2 90 74 -4.0 95 -0.9 73 -2.7 88 10.82 1
GeorgiaState Sun 5-5 6-6 -3.4 91 103 -3.1 90 +1.0 86 +1.7 59 -1.85 81
Wyoming MWC 5-5 6-6 -3.6 92 92 -5.2 100 -1.7 66 -2.7 87 -3.88 100
Tulsa Amer 4-6 5-7 -3.8 93 93 -5.3 101 -1.6 67 -2.5 84 0.88 63
OldDominion CUSA 4-6 5-7 -4.2 94 97 -4.8 98 -1.4 69 -7.3 105 -3.77 97
LouisianaTech CUSA 3-7 5-7 -4.5 95 98 +1.3 67 +5.2 107 -6.9 103 -2.65 87
Troy Sun 5-5 6-6 -4.8 96 91 -5.0 99 -0.4 75 -4.1 90 -6.19 116
Navy Amer 2-7 3-9 -5.4 97 99 -7.0 111 -1.8 63 -4.0 89 5.37 16
Stanford P12 3-7 4-8 -5.4 98 94 -3.9 93 +1.2 88 -5.5 96 4.60 27
UTEP CUSA 6-4 7-5 -6.1 99 96 -6.9 110 -0.7 74 -2.1 83 -7.48 124
Buffalo MAC 4-6 5-7 -6.1 100 89 +0.9 70 +6.1 112 -9.4 115 -6.76 123
Northwestern B10 3-7 3-9 -6.5 101 102 -6.1 104 +0.1 81 -5.8 97 4.48 29
SouthAlabama Sun 5-5 5-7 -6.7 102 104 -6.5 107 -0.2 78 -6.3 99 -7.54 125
Tulane Amer 1-9 2-10 -7.2 103 105 -1.9 83 +4.4 104 -9.8 117 1.08 60
Colorado P12 3-7 3-9 -7.4 104 101 -7.6 117 -1.0 71 -8.7 112 2.80 43
SanJoseState MWC 5-6 5-7 -8.5 105 100 -9.9 123 -1.4 68 -4.2 91 -4.26 105
Hawaii MWC 4-7 5-8 -9.6 106 107 -4.3 96 +5.2 108 -6.9 104 -4.25 104
KentState MAC 5-5 6-6 -9.9 107 106 +0.4 73 +11.4 123 -0.9 77 -6.56 121
UNLV MWC 2-8 2-10 -10.3 108 109 -7.2 113 +2.6 95 -8.7 111 1.93 49
NorthTexas CUSA 4-6 5-7 -10.4 109 113 -6.5 108 +3.8 102 -6.8 101 -4.56 107
SouthFlorida Amer 2-8 2-10 -10.5 110 110 -3.1 91 +7.1 117 -8.9 113 0.60 64
Arizona P12 1-9 1-11 -11.1 111 112 -8.3 119 +1.5 89 -13.8 125 2.53 46
Charlotte CUSA 5-5 5-7 -12.2 112 111 -6.1 105 +6.3 114 -6.5 100 -6.59 122
Duke ACC 3-7 3-9 -12.5 113 108 -5.7 103 +7.0 116 -7.5 108 1.27 56
Ohio MAC 3-7 4-8 -12.9 114 118 -7.5 114 +5.0 106 -10.2 119 -6.22 118
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 3-7 3-9 -13.6 115 115 -7.2 112 +6.1 113 -9.9 118 -2.57 86
BowlingGreen MAC 3-7 4-8 -15.2 116 114 -9.1 120 +5.7 111 -11.0 121 -5.48 113
NewMexico MWC 3-7 3-9 -15.7 117 116 -12.9 128 +2.6 94 -9.1 114 -1.34 76
LouisianaMonroe Sun 4-6 4-8 -16.6 118 117 -7.5 115 +9.9 121 -6.0 98 -2.98 89
ArkansasState Sun 2-8 3-9 -16.6 119 120 -1.9 82 +14.7 129 -12.2 122 -3.88 99
Rice CUSA 3-7 3-9 -17.6 120 121 -11.4 124 +6.6 115 -7.8 109 -3.02 90
Kansas B12 2-8 2-10 -18.2 121 124 -7.6 116 +11.5 124 -6.8 102 4.92 24
TexasState Sun 3-7 3-9 -18.4 122 119 -9.8 122 +8.8 119 -10.7 120 -7.62 126
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-9 2-10 -18.9 123 126 -13.5 130 +4.3 103 -16.1 128 -5.04 111
Akron MAC 2-8 2-10 -20.2 124 127 -7.7 118 +12.5 126 -14.1 126 -3.84 98
Temple Amer 3-7 3-9 -20.9 125 125 -11.8 125 +9.9 122 -8.1 110 -3.17 92
Vanderbilt SEC 2-8 2-10 -21.6 126 128 -12.2 127 +9.5 120 -12.6 123 1.90 50
NewMexicoState Ind 1-9 2-10 -22.0 127 123 -6.7 109 +15.4 131 -14.9 127 -4.65 108
FIU CUSA 1-9 2-10 -22.4 128 122 -9.3 121 +12.4 125 -18.9 131 -7.75 127
FCS Z_FCS 12-101 12-105 -24.4 129 129 -11.8 126 +13.0 127 -12.9 124 0.33 67
Connecticut Ind 1-9 1-11 -27.5 130 131 -13.9 131 +13.5 128 -18.2 130 -4.11 101
Massachusetts Ind 1-9 1-11 -28.0 131 130 -13.0 129 +15.1 130 -17.4 129 -2.94 88

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 9-1 10-2 +27.6 2 2 +22.0 1 -6.6 24 +15.5 4 6.02 13
Michigan B10 9-1 10-2 +23.1 4 4 +11.7 6 -11.0 8 +17.0 3 6.63 10
Wisconsin B10 7-3 9-3 +19.5 5 5 +5.0 37 -14.0 3 +13.1 9 8.99 2
PennState B10 6-4 7-5 +15.8 12 9 +3.2 51 -12.5 5 +8.4 27 8.86 3
MichiganState B10 9-1 10-2 +15.3 13 12 +8.8 16 -5.7 30 +14.9 6 7.20 5
Iowa B10 8-2 9-3 +12.7 21 20 +0.7 71 -10.9 9 +12.7 11 4.89 25
Purdue B10 6-4 8-4 +12.0 25 23 +4.1 44 -7.6 19 +9.0 23 7.04 7
Nebraska B10 3-7 4-8 +10.7 28 28 +3.2 50 -9.1 15 -4.2 92 7.65 4
Minnesota B10 6-4 7-5 +8.4 42 39 +1.7 61 -6.9 23 +3.6 48 4.23 34
Rutgers B10 5-5 6-6 +3.4 66 75 -1.0 78 -4.4 41 +2.2 58 5.12 20
Illinois B10 4-6 5-7 +1.8 70 67 -6.4 106 -8.3 17 +0.2 72 6.68 9
Maryland B10 5-5 5-7 -1.2 82 78 +1.6 65 +3.4 100 +3.0 50 5.24 17
Indiana B10 2-8 2-10 -3.2 90 74 -4.0 95 -0.9 73 -2.7 88 10.82 1
Northwestern B10 3-7 3-9 -6.5 101 102 -6.1 104 +0.1 81 -5.8 97 4.48 29

[insert comments as appropriate]

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 10-0 12-0 +35.3 1 1 +13.3 4 -21.7 1 +20.8 1 0.98 1
UTSA CUSA 10-0 12-0 +10.9 27 25 +6.6 27 -3.4 51 +12.5 12 0.62 2
Cincinnati Amer 10-0 12-0 +16.6 9 7 +9.1 15 -6.9 22 +14.7 7 0.56 3

Meep-Meep, mother(tr)uckers.

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 10-0 12-0 +35.3 1 1 +13.3 4 -21.7 1 +20.8 1 1.00 1
NotreDame Ind 9-1 11-1 +19.1 6 8 +8.2 18 -10.0 10 +17.3 2 0.85 4
Alabama SEC 9-1 11-1 +24.6 3 3 +16.0 3 -9.3 13 +12.7 10 0.62 6
OklahomaState B12 9-1 11-1 +16.9 7 17 +4.1 45 -11.9 6 +14.9 5 0.58 7
OhioState B10 9-1 10-2 +27.6 2 2 +22.0 1 -6.6 24 +15.5 4 0.47 8
WakeForest ACC 9-1 10-2 +16.9 8 10 +16.6 2 -0.2 79 +13.5 8 0.44 9
Michigan B10 9-1 10-2 +23.1 4 4 +11.7 6 -11.0 8 +17.0 3 0.41 10
Oregon P12 9-1 10-2 +12.0 24 27 +8.7 17 -2.9 58 +10.9 17 0.29 12
Oklahoma B12 9-1 10-2 +12.7 22 21 +9.1 14 -3.0 54 +12.2 14 0.17 14
MichiganState B10 9-1 10-2 +15.3 13 12 +8.8 16 -5.7 30 +14.9 6 0.09 15

Trying to come up with the newest/most unique playoff participant list.

Georgia, Wake, Okie State, Oregon?

Man, that's still got two repeat offenders...

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff AP Rk
Oregon P12 9-1 10-2 +12.0 24 27 +8.7 17 -2.9 58 +10.9 17 0.57 3
SanDiegoState MWC 9-1 10-2 +5.0 59 60 -4.7 97 -8.4 16 +10.7 18 0.35 19
BYU Ind 8-2 10-2 +10.4 33 33 +5.8 34 -3.8 47 +11.4 16 0.26 14
Cincinnati Amer 10-0 12-0 +16.6 9 7 +9.1 15 -6.9 22 +14.7 7 0.26 5
MichiganState B10 9-1 10-2 +15.3 13 12 +8.8 16 -5.7 30 +14.9 6 0.24 7
Alabama SEC 9-1 11-1 +24.6 3 3 +16.0 3 -9.3 13 +12.7 10 0.22 2
Oklahoma B12 9-1 10-2 +12.7 22 21 +9.1 14 -3.0 54 +12.2 14 0.19 13
Baylor B12 8-2 9-3 +14.1 17 24 +4.4 42 -9.2 14 +11.6 15 0.19 11

Switched it up this week: I'm comparing my ratings to "estimated" rating based on their AP rank. I think it's a good illustration, at least.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-8 2-10 -21.6 126 128 -12.2 127 +9.5 120 -12.6 123 1.90 50
Kansas B12 2-8 2-10 -18.2 121 124 -7.6 116 +11.5 124 -6.8 102 4.92 24
Duke ACC 3-7 3-9 -12.5 113 108 -5.7 103 +7.0 116 -7.5 108 1.27 56
Arizona P12 1-9 1-11 -11.1 111 112 -8.3 119 +1.5 89 -13.8 125 2.53 46
Colorado P12 3-7 3-9 -7.4 104 101 -7.6 117 -1.0 71 -8.7 112 2.80 43
Northwestern B10 3-7 3-9 -6.5 101 102 -6.1 104 +0.1 81 -5.8 97 4.48 29
Stanford P12 3-7 4-8 -5.4 98 94 -3.9 93 +1.2 88 -5.5 96 4.60 27
Indiana B10 2-8 2-10 -3.2 90 74 -4.0 95 -0.9 73 -2.7 88 10.82 1

Kansas beat Texas as a 30-pt underdog, don't forget.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
12 Sat 2021-11-13 #1 Georgia V #30 Tennessee W 41 17
12 Sat 2021-11-13 #36 Louisville H #58 Syracuse W 41 3
12 Sat 2021-11-13 #7 OklahomaState H #75 TCU W 63 17
12 Sat 2021-11-13 #66 Rutgers V #90 Indiana W 38 3
12 Sat 2021-11-13 #3 Alabama H #127 NewMexicoState W 59 3

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #3 Alabama V #35 MississippiState W 49 9
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #5 Wisconsin V #66 Rutgers W 52 3
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #57 UAB W 56 7
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #6 NotreDame N #5 Wisconsin W 41 13
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #4 Michigan H #85 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #24 Oregon V #2 OhioState W 35 28
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #1 Georgia H #31 Arkansas W 37 0
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #4 Michigan V #5 Wisconsin W 38 17
7 Sat 2021-10-09 #1 Georgia V #19 Auburn W 34 10
8 Tue 2021-10-12 #51 LouisianaLafayette H #26 AppalachianState W 41 13

Love that ULL-L rounds out the top ten games here.

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 262.0 over 593 games, which would rank #26 (out of 54 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines. Hey, we have lines again!

I am currently 277-306-9 (47.6%) on the season, but I went 32-27-1 (54.2%) last week! Gonna blame it on the COVID.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV VegPrj Pk vs Veg
Nov 20 #23 Clemson H #8 WakeForest 45% -1.9 4.0 WakeForest
Nov 20 #18 IowaState V #22 Oklahoma 47% -0.9 -4.0 IowaState
Nov 20 #17 Baylor V #37 KansasState 55% 1.9 -1.0 Baylor
Nov 20 #24 Oregon V #20 Utah 41% -3.2 -3.0 Utah
Nov 19 #38 AirForce V #52 Nevada 51% 0.3 -1.5 AirForce
Nov 20 #13 MichiganState V #2 OhioState 16% -14.6 -19.0 MichiganState
Nov 20 #54 OregonState H #47 ArizonaState 55% 1.7 -3.0 OregonState
Nov 20 #9 Cincinnati H #29 SMU 72% 8.3 11.5 SMU
Nov 20 #45 Texas V #64 WestVirginia 54% 1.5 -2.5 Texas
Nov 20 #28 Nebraska V #5 Wisconsin 22% -11.1 -9.5 Wisconsin
Nov 20 #34 Liberty H #51 LouisianaLafayette 65% 5.5 4.5 Liberty
Nov 20 #69 BostonCollege H #61 FloridaState 49% -0.3 1.5 FloridaState
Nov 20 #56 UCLA V #71 USC 58% 2.9 3.0 USC
Nov 20 #3 Alabama H #31 Arkansas 86% 16.4 21.0 Arkansas
Nov 20 #57 UAB V #27 UTSA 30% -7.5 -4.5 UTSA
Nov 20 #44 Miami H #63 VirginiaTech 66% 6.1 8.0 VirginiaTech
Nov 20 #11 Pittsburgh H #53 Virginia 79% 11.6 14.5 Virginia
Nov 16 #86 EasternMichigan H #74 WesternMichigan 51% 0.4 -5.5 EasternMichigan
Nov 20 #15 NorthCarolinaState H #58 Syracuse 79% 12.0 11.5 NorthCarolinaState
Nov 20 #72 SouthCarolina H #19 Auburn 24% -10.2 -7.5 Auburn
Nov 20 #12 PennState H #66 Rutgers 84% 14.6 17.0 Rutgers
Nov 20 #80 California V #98 Stanford 56% 2.2 1.5 California
Nov 17 #79 BallState H #87 CentralMichigan 61% 4.2 -1.5 BallState
Nov 20 #70 Illinois V #21 Iowa 19% -13.2 -13.0 Iowa
Nov 17 #100 Buffalo H #85 NorthernIllinois 44% -2.2 -1.0 NorthernIllinois
Nov 20 #43 Florida V #89 Missouri 72% 8.6 8.5 Florida
Nov 20 #90 Indiana H #42 Minnesota 26% -9.2 -7.5 Minnesota
Nov 20 #67 EastCarolina V #97 Navy 65% 5.6 4.0 EastCarolina
Nov 20 #7 OklahomaState V #81 TexasTech 85% 15.6 10.5 OklahomaState
Nov 19 #32 Houston H #76 Memphis 81% 13.0 8.5 Houston
Nov 20 #84 MiddleTennessee H #94 OldDominion 64% 5.1 4.0 MiddleTennessee
Nov 20 #83 FloridaAtlantic V #50 WesternKentucky 22% -11.1 -10.0 WesternKentucky
Nov 20 #77 Washington V #104 Colorado 63% 4.7 6.5 Colorado
Nov 20 #60 UtahState H #92 Wyoming 77% 10.7 5.5 UtahState
Nov 20 #26 AppalachianState V #96 Troy 82% 13.7 10.0 AppalachianState
Nov 20 #88 ColoradoState V #106 Hawaii 63% 4.6 2.5 ColoradoState
Nov 20 #82 Maryland H #4 Michigan 8% -21.8 -15.0 Michigan
Nov 20 #78 GeorgiaTech V #6 NotreDame 8% -21.8 -17.0 NotreDame
Nov 20 #110 SouthFlorida V #103 Tulane 35% -5.6 -5.5 Tulane
Nov 19 #59 SanDiegoState V #108 UNLV 81% 12.9 10.5 SanDiegoState
Nov 20 #101 Northwestern N #25 Purdue 11% -18.4 -11.0 Purdue
Nov 20 #30 Tennessee H #102 SouthAlabama 90% 19.5 28.0 SouthAlabama
Nov 16 #114 Ohio H #62 Toledo 16% -14.9 -7.0 Toledo
Nov 20 #112 Charlotte H #49 Marshall 13% -17.2 -15.0 Marshall
Nov 19 #68 WashingtonState H #111 Arizona 85% 15.3 15.0 WashingtonState
Nov 18 #36 Louisville V #113 Duke 90% 19.9 20.0 Duke
Nov 20 #124 Akron H #107 KentState 29% -7.9 -13.5 Akron
Nov 20 #33 BYU V #115 GeorgiaSouthern 92% 21.5 20.0 BYU
Nov 20 #35 MississippiState H TennesseeState 93% 23.7 ~ ~
Nov 16 #116 BowlingGreen V #73 MiamiOH 12% -17.5 -17.0 MiamiOH
Nov 20 #91 GeorgiaState H #119 ArkansasState 85% 15.5 16.5 ArkansasState
Nov 20 #120 Rice V #99 UTEP 18% -13.8 -10.0 UTEP
Nov 20 #128 FIU H #109 NorthTexas 25% -9.6 -10.0 FIU
Nov 20 #41 NorthCarolina H Wofford 94% 25.2 ~ ~
Nov 19 #95 LouisianaTech H #123 SouthernMississippi 87% 16.7 16.5 LouisianaTech
Nov 20 #121 Kansas V #75 TCU 9% -20.4 -21.5 Kansas
Nov 20 #48 LSU H #118 LouisianaMonroe 95% 26.3 29.0 LouisianaMonroe
Nov 20 #125 Temple V #93 Tulsa 10% -19.4 -21.5 Temple
Nov 20 #14 BoiseState H #117 NewMexico 98% 33.0 27.0 BoiseState
Nov 20 #40 CoastalCarolina H #122 TexasState 97% 30.1 24.0 CoastalCarolina
Nov 20 #127 NewMexicoState V #55 Kentucky 3% -30.9 -36.0 NewMexicoState
Nov 20 #126 Vanderbilt V #10 Mississippi 1% -40.2 -36.5 Mississippi
Nov 20 #65 CentralFlorida H #130 Connecticut 98% 33.4 30.5 CentralFlorida
Nov 20 #39 Army H #131 Massachusetts 99% 39.6 37.0 Army
Nov 20 #1 Georgia H Charleston Southern 100% 63.3 ~ ~
Nov 20 #16 TexasAM H PrairieViewAM 100% 50.2 ~ ~

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV VegPrj Pk vs Veg
Nov 20 #13 MichiganState V #2 OhioState 16% -14.6 -19.0 MichiganState
Nov 20 #28 Nebraska V #5 Wisconsin 22% -11.1 -9.5 Wisconsin
Nov 20 #12 PennState H #66 Rutgers 84% 14.6 17.0 Rutgers
Nov 20 #70 Illinois V #21 Iowa 19% -13.2 -13.0 Iowa
Nov 20 #90 Indiana H #42 Minnesota 26% -9.2 -7.5 Minnesota
Nov 20 #82 Maryland H #4 Michigan 8% -21.8 -15.0 Michigan
Nov 20 #101 Northwestern N #25 Purdue 11% -18.4 -11.0 Purdue

Extremely nervous about the Nebraska game. Can you get dead-cat bounces from fired coordinators?

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