[introduction]
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 11-0 | 12-0 | +33.7 | 1 | 1 | +13.4 | 4 | -20.3 | 1 | +19.0 | 1 | 2.51 | 47 |
| OhioState | B10 | 10-1 | 11-1 | +29.5 | 2 | 2 | +22.8 | 1 | -7.8 | 17 | +16.4 | 3 | 5.30 | 16 |
| Alabama | SEC | 10-1 | 11-1 | +24.4 | 3 | 3 | +16.5 | 2 | -8.4 | 15 | +14.2 | 7 | 3.44 | 37 |
| Michigan | B10 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.9 | 6 | -10.5 | 9 | +16.7 | 2 | 6.06 | 11 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 10-1 | 11-1 | +21.3 | 5 | 6 | +8.9 | 15 | -11.8 | 7 | +16.4 | 4 | 5.03 | 18 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 11-0 | 12-0 | +19.4 | 6 | 9 | +10.1 | 10 | -8.9 | 14 | +15.4 | 6 | -3.51 | 96 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 8-3 | 9-3 | +18.9 | 7 | 5 | +5.9 | 32 | -12.7 | 6 | +12.7 | 12 | 8.84 | 2 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 10-1 | 11-1 | +17.7 | 8 | 7 | +3.1 | 50 | -13.5 | 5 | +15.5 | 5 | 2.75 | 44 |
| PennState | B10 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 9 | 12 | +2.7 | 53 | -13.6 | 4 | +8.6 | 28 | 8.03 | 3 |
| NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +15.9 | 10 | 15 | +4.5 | 39 | -11.6 | 8 | +7.8 | 30 | 3.89 | 34 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 9-2 | 10-2 | +15.8 | 11 | 11 | +13.1 | 5 | -3.1 | 55 | +9.0 | 23 | -1.01 | 75 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +15.5 | 12 | 16 | +1.5 | 65 | -13.8 | 3 | +9.0 | 24 | 1.90 | 51 |
| BoiseState | MWC | 7-4 | 8-4 | +15.3 | 13 | 14 | +5.7 | 34 | -9.6 | 11 | +8.6 | 27 | 3.10 | 41 |
| Utah | P12 | 8-3 | 9-3 | +15.0 | 14 | 20 | +9.4 | 13 | -5.8 | 29 | +9.0 | 25 | 0.57 | 64 |
| Baylor | B12 | 9-2 | 10-2 | +14.8 | 15 | 17 | +4.4 | 42 | -9.7 | 10 | +12.9 | 11 | -0.12 | 69 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 9-2 | 10-2 | +14.5 | 16 | 10 | +9.9 | 11 | -4.4 | 43 | +11.6 | 15 | 5.49 | 15 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 9-2 | 10-2 | +14.3 | 17 | 8 | +16.0 | 3 | +1.8 | 89 | +11.7 | 14 | 2.15 | 50 |
| Clemson | ACC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +14.3 | 18 | 23 | -0.9 | 79 | -14.7 | 2 | +8.8 | 26 | 4.05 | 32 |
| AppalachianState | Sun | 9-2 | 11-3 | +13.5 | 19 | 26 | +7.1 | 21 | -6.1 | 27 | +10.4 | 20 | -2.50 | 86 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +13.3 | 20 | 22 | +9.1 | 14 | -3.6 | 51 | +12.9 | 10 | 1.17 | 59 |
| IowaState | B12 | 6-5 | 7-5 | +13.3 | 21 | 18 | +6.5 | 26 | -7.3 | 21 | +4.8 | 40 | 4.06 | 31 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +12.9 | 22 | 30 | +11.7 | 8 | -2.1 | 62 | +4.1 | 45 | 2.36 | 48 |
| Auburn | SEC | 6-5 | 6-6 | +12.2 | 23 | 19 | +6.6 | 24 | -6.1 | 28 | +4.7 | 42 | 6.97 | 7 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 9-2 | 9-3 | +12.2 | 24 | 13 | +6.6 | 25 | -4.7 | 39 | +13.3 | 8 | 6.99 | 6 |
| Iowa | B10 | 9-2 | 9-3 | +12.2 | 25 | 21 | +1.6 | 62 | -9.6 | 12 | +12.6 | 13 | 4.70 | 23 |
| Purdue | B10 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +11.9 | 26 | 25 | +4.0 | 45 | -7.5 | 20 | +9.2 | 22 | 7.06 | 5 |
| MississippiState | SEC | 7-4 | 7-5 | +11.6 | 27 | 35 | +7.1 | 19 | -4.7 | 38 | +6.5 | 34 | 5.90 | 12 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 7-4 | 8-4 | +11.2 | 28 | 31 | +5.8 | 33 | -5.3 | 33 | +7.4 | 31 | 5.02 | 20 |
| Houston | Amer | 10-1 | 11-1 | +11.1 | 29 | 32 | +6.2 | 31 | -4.3 | 45 | +10.6 | 19 | -8.97 | 130 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 11-0 | 12-0 | +10.9 | 30 | 27 | +6.8 | 23 | -3.1 | 54 | +13.1 | 9 | -7.67 | 128 |
| Louisville | ACC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 31 | 36 | +6.4 | 29 | -5.1 | 34 | +3.0 | 52 | 4.19 | 29 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 3-8 | 4-8 | +10.5 | 32 | 28 | +4.3 | 43 | -8.0 | 16 | -4.4 | 89 | 7.47 | 4 |
| Oregon | P12 | 9-2 | 10-2 | +10.1 | 33 | 24 | +6.5 | 27 | -3.1 | 56 | +9.6 | 21 | 1.62 | 52 |
| LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 10-1 | 12-2 | +10.0 | 34 | 51 | +2.0 | 57 | -7.1 | 24 | +10.9 | 18 | -3.61 | 98 |
| BYU | Ind | 9-2 | 10-2 | +9.8 | 35 | 33 | +5.3 | 35 | -3.6 | 50 | +11.1 | 17 | 0.04 | 68 |
| AirForce | MWC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +9.6 | 36 | 38 | +1.4 | 66 | -7.8 | 18 | +8.1 | 29 | -1.96 | 81 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 7-4 | 7-5 | +9.3 | 37 | 42 | +2.1 | 56 | -7.3 | 22 | +4.8 | 41 | 4.08 | 30 |
| SMU | Amer | 8-3 | 9-3 | +9.0 | 38 | 29 | +8.9 | 16 | -0.1 | 73 | +6.2 | 37 | -2.61 | 88 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 9-2 | 10-2 | +8.6 | 39 | 40 | +6.9 | 22 | -1.9 | 63 | +4.2 | 44 | -11.15 | 131 |
| KansasState | B12 | 7-4 | 7-5 | +8.5 | 40 | 37 | -0.9 | 80 | -9.1 | 13 | +6.4 | 35 | 2.93 | 43 |
| UCLA | P12 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +8.4 | 41 | 56 | +10.1 | 9 | +1.3 | 85 | +3.6 | 48 | 0.90 | 61 |
| WesternKentucky | CUSA | 7-4 | 7-5 | +8.4 | 42 | 50 | +11.8 | 7 | +2.6 | 95 | +1.4 | 64 | -4.56 | 107 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 8-3 | 8-4 | +8.3 | 43 | 55 | +3.4 | 48 | -4.7 | 40 | +6.3 | 36 | 1.25 | 58 |
| FresnoState | MWC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +8.2 | 44 | 46 | +4.5 | 37 | -3.4 | 52 | +6.8 | 33 | -4.62 | 109 |
| OregonState | P12 | 7-4 | 7-5 | +8.0 | 45 | 54 | +6.5 | 28 | -1.9 | 64 | +3.1 | 51 | 0.84 | 62 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 7-4 | 8-4 | +8.0 | 46 | 49 | +4.0 | 46 | -4.7 | 37 | +0.8 | 68 | -5.10 | 113 |
| Miami | ACC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +7.9 | 47 | 44 | +6.3 | 30 | -1.8 | 67 | +4.2 | 43 | 4.28 | 28 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 6-5 | 6-6 | +7.4 | 48 | 41 | +8.7 | 17 | +0.7 | 82 | +1.9 | 60 | 4.73 | 22 |
| Florida | SEC | 5-6 | 6-6 | +7.4 | 49 | 43 | +4.4 | 40 | -4.0 | 49 | -1.2 | 82 | 3.97 | 33 |
| Liberty | Ind | 7-4 | 8-4 | +7.4 | 50 | 34 | +3.3 | 49 | -4.4 | 42 | +2.3 | 57 | -3.74 | 100 |
| Texas | B12 | 4-7 | 5-7 | +6.9 | 51 | 45 | +9.8 | 12 | +2.0 | 90 | -0.7 | 78 | 4.58 | 25 |
| Army | Ind | 7-3 | 8-4 | +6.9 | 52 | 39 | +4.4 | 41 | -2.3 | 60 | +5.3 | 39 | -2.77 | 90 |
| Nevada | MWC | 7-4 | 8-4 | +6.9 | 53 | 52 | +7.1 | 20 | +0.1 | 75 | +3.8 | 47 | -2.40 | 85 |
| LSU | SEC | 5-6 | 5-7 | +6.8 | 54 | 48 | +0.9 | 68 | -6.3 | 26 | +1.3 | 65 | 6.53 | 8 |
| UAB | CUSA | 7-4 | 8-4 | +6.4 | 55 | 57 | +2.0 | 58 | -4.3 | 46 | +4.1 | 46 | -0.95 | 74 |
| Virginia | ACC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +6.3 | 56 | 53 | +7.8 | 18 | +1.3 | 84 | +3.5 | 49 | 3.82 | 36 |
| ArizonaState | P12 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +6.3 | 57 | 47 | +0.8 | 70 | -5.6 | 30 | +2.9 | 54 | -2.02 | 82 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 5-6 | 5-7 | +5.5 | 58 | 61 | +3.0 | 51 | -3.0 | 57 | +0.5 | 71 | 5.78 | 13 |
| Toledo | MAC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +5.0 | 59 | 62 | +1.6 | 63 | -4.1 | 48 | -1.2 | 81 | -7.58 | 127 |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 10-1 | 10-2 | +4.9 | 60 | 59 | -4.3 | 97 | -7.7 | 19 | +11.1 | 16 | -4.05 | 101 |
| WestVirginia | B12 | 5-6 | 6-6 | +4.2 | 61 | 64 | -1.0 | 81 | -5.4 | 31 | +1.2 | 66 | 1.35 | 55 |
| CentralFlorida | Amer | 7-4 | 8-4 | +4.0 | 62 | 65 | +3.6 | 47 | -0.4 | 72 | +2.7 | 55 | -3.38 | 94 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 5-6 | 5-7 | +3.8 | 63 | 58 | +1.2 | 67 | -3.1 | 53 | -0.9 | 80 | 4.76 | 21 |
| SouthCarolina | SEC | 6-5 | 6-6 | +3.1 | 64 | 72 | -2.1 | 84 | -4.9 | 36 | +3.4 | 50 | 4.59 | 24 |
| EastCarolina | Amer | 7-4 | 7-5 | +2.9 | 65 | 67 | +0.9 | 69 | -1.9 | 66 | +2.9 | 53 | -0.66 | 70 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 5-6 | 5-7 | +2.7 | 66 | 63 | -3.1 | 91 | -6.4 | 25 | -2.5 | 86 | 2.72 | 45 |
| WashingtonState | P12 | 6-5 | 7-5 | +2.2 | 67 | 68 | -0.4 | 75 | -2.7 | 59 | +0.5 | 70 | 0.57 | 63 |
| UtahState | MWC | 8-3 | 9-3 | +1.6 | 68 | 60 | +4.1 | 44 | +3.3 | 101 | +5.8 | 38 | -4.36 | 104 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 5-6 | 6-6 | +1.6 | 69 | 66 | -2.5 | 88 | -4.1 | 47 | +0.6 | 69 | 4.44 | 26 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 6-5 | 6-6 | +1.5 | 70 | 69 | -2.8 | 89 | -4.6 | 41 | -1.2 | 83 | -0.77 | 73 |
| California | P12 | 4-6 | 5-7 | +1.5 | 71 | 80 | -2.3 | 87 | -5.1 | 35 | -7.2 | 104 | -1.18 | 77 |
| Illinois | B10 | 4-7 | 5-7 | +1.3 | 72 | 70 | -5.7 | 105 | -7.2 | 23 | -0.6 | 76 | 6.23 | 10 |
| MiamiOH | MAC | 6-5 | 7-5 | +1.1 | 73 | 73 | -3.0 | 90 | -4.3 | 44 | -0.7 | 77 | -5.76 | 117 |
| WesternMichigan | MAC | 6-5 | 6-6 | +0.2 | 74 | 74 | +1.7 | 60 | +1.7 | 88 | +1.5 | 62 | -1.27 | 78 |
| CentralMichigan | MAC | 7-4 | 8-4 | +0.0 | 75 | 87 | +1.9 | 59 | +2.2 | 92 | +2.1 | 58 | -5.18 | 114 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 6-5 | 7-5 | -0.4 | 76 | 92 | -3.4 | 92 | -3.0 | 58 | +0.2 | 73 | -4.08 | 102 |
| Memphis | Amer | 5-6 | 6-6 | -0.4 | 77 | 76 | +0.4 | 72 | +0.6 | 79 | -1.6 | 85 | -1.04 | 76 |
| Missouri | SEC | 6-5 | 6-6 | -0.7 | 78 | 89 | +4.5 | 38 | +5.6 | 109 | +1.9 | 59 | 3.35 | 39 |
| USC | P12 | 4-6 | 5-7 | -0.8 | 79 | 71 | +4.9 | 36 | +5.2 | 107 | -3.9 | 87 | 3.12 | 40 |
| NorthernIllinois | MAC | 8-3 | 9-3 | -0.8 | 80 | 85 | +2.5 | 54 | +4.7 | 104 | +7.4 | 32 | -2.02 | 83 |
| Washington | P12 | 4-7 | 4-8 | -1.2 | 81 | 77 | -5.5 | 102 | -5.4 | 32 | -6.9 | 102 | 0.26 | 67 |
| EasternMichigan | MAC | 7-4 | 7-5 | -1.3 | 82 | 86 | +2.3 | 55 | +3.9 | 102 | +0.8 | 67 | -5.92 | 119 |
| TCU | B12 | 5-6 | 5-7 | -1.7 | 83 | 75 | +2.8 | 52 | +4.7 | 105 | +0.4 | 72 | 3.38 | 38 |
| Tulsa | Amer | 5-6 | 5-7 | -2.0 | 84 | 93 | -3.8 | 94 | -1.9 | 65 | -1.6 | 84 | 1.32 | 56 |
| TexasTech | B12 | 6-5 | 6-6 | -2.1 | 85 | 81 | +1.5 | 64 | +4.2 | 103 | +1.6 | 61 | 1.49 | 54 |
| BallState | MAC | 5-6 | 6-6 | -2.4 | 86 | 79 | -1.9 | 83 | +0.7 | 81 | -0.5 | 75 | -0.73 | 71 |
| Maryland | B10 | 5-6 | 5-7 | -2.7 | 87 | 82 | +1.7 | 61 | +5.1 | 106 | +2.4 | 56 | 5.19 | 17 |
| MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 5-6 | 5-7 | -3.0 | 88 | 84 | -0.5 | 77 | +1.7 | 87 | -6.8 | 100 | -6.61 | 121 |
| ColoradoState | MWC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -3.4 | 89 | 88 | -1.2 | 82 | +1.1 | 83 | -8.4 | 109 | -0.76 | 72 |
| GeorgiaTech | ACC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -3.5 | 90 | 78 | -0.4 | 76 | +2.4 | 94 | -6.7 | 97 | 6.28 | 9 |
| FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 5-6 | 6-6 | -3.7 | 91 | 83 | -3.6 | 93 | -0.4 | 71 | -5.2 | 93 | -4.52 | 106 |
| GeorgiaState | Sun | 6-5 | 7-5 | -3.9 | 92 | 91 | -4.0 | 95 | +0.6 | 80 | +1.4 | 63 | -1.95 | 80 |
| OldDominion | CUSA | 5-6 | 6-6 | -4.0 | 93 | 94 | -5.6 | 103 | -2.2 | 61 | -5.6 | 94 | -4.87 | 111 |
| Indiana | B10 | 2-9 | 2-10 | -4.5 | 94 | 90 | -4.3 | 98 | -0.1 | 74 | -4.2 | 88 | 10.87 | 1 |
| Navy | Amer | 2-8 | 3-9 | -4.6 | 95 | 97 | -5.0 | 100 | -0.8 | 70 | -5.1 | 92 | 5.63 | 14 |
| Tulane | Amer | 2-9 | 2-10 | -4.9 | 96 | 103 | -0.9 | 78 | +3.2 | 99 | -8.3 | 108 | 1.26 | 57 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 7-4 | 7-5 | -5.9 | 97 | 99 | -6.0 | 107 | +0.4 | 77 | -0.7 | 79 | -7.34 | 125 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 4-7 | 4-8 | -6.1 | 98 | 100 | +0.5 | 71 | +5.6 | 110 | -9.8 | 116 | -6.75 | 123 |
| Colorado | P12 | 4-7 | 4-8 | -6.4 | 99 | 104 | -7.2 | 113 | -1.3 | 69 | -6.9 | 101 | 3.00 | 42 |
| Troy | Sun | 5-6 | 5-7 | -6.5 | 100 | 96 | -5.9 | 106 | +0.4 | 78 | -4.5 | 90 | -5.65 | 116 |
| LouisianaTech | CUSA | 3-8 | 4-8 | -7.0 | 101 | 95 | -0.1 | 74 | +6.2 | 113 | -9.2 | 114 | -2.09 | 84 |
| KentState | MAC | 6-5 | 6-6 | -7.2 | 102 | 107 | +0.3 | 73 | +8.4 | 120 | -0.3 | 74 | -6.42 | 120 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-8 | 3-9 | -7.4 | 103 | 101 | -6.7 | 112 | +0.2 | 76 | -6.7 | 99 | 3.87 | 35 |
| NorthTexas | CUSA | 5-6 | 5-7 | -7.7 | 104 | 109 | -5.3 | 101 | +2.3 | 93 | -5.9 | 96 | -4.69 | 110 |
| Stanford | P12 | 3-8 | 3-9 | -7.8 | 105 | 98 | -4.5 | 99 | +2.8 | 98 | -7.9 | 105 | 5.03 | 19 |
| SouthAlabama | Sun | 5-6 | 5-7 | -8.1 | 106 | 102 | -6.4 | 110 | +1.3 | 86 | -6.7 | 98 | -6.70 | 122 |
| Hawaii | MWC | 5-7 | 5-8 | -8.9 | 107 | 106 | -2.3 | 86 | +6.6 | 114 | -5.7 | 95 | -4.20 | 103 |
| SanJoseState | MWC | 5-6 | 5-7 | -8.9 | 108 | 105 | -10.6 | 123 | -1.7 | 68 | -4.5 | 91 | -4.50 | 105 |
| UNLV | MWC | 2-9 | 2-10 | -10.4 | 109 | 108 | -6.7 | 111 | +3.3 | 100 | -9.2 | 113 | 1.53 | 53 |
| Arizona | P12 | 1-10 | 1-11 | -11.9 | 110 | 111 | -8.1 | 118 | +2.6 | 96 | -13.7 | 126 | 2.57 | 46 |
| Ohio | MAC | 3-8 | 4-8 | -12.1 | 111 | 114 | -6.3 | 109 | +5.2 | 108 | -10.9 | 120 | -5.81 | 118 |
| SouthFlorida | Amer | 2-9 | 2-10 | -12.5 | 112 | 110 | -4.2 | 96 | +8.0 | 118 | -10.4 | 118 | 0.99 | 60 |
| Charlotte | CUSA | 5-6 | 5-7 | -13.2 | 113 | 112 | -5.7 | 104 | +7.5 | 117 | -8.3 | 106 | -7.43 | 126 |
| GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 3-8 | 3-9 | -13.6 | 114 | 115 | -7.5 | 116 | +5.8 | 111 | -10.2 | 117 | -2.52 | 87 |
| Duke | ACC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -15.2 | 115 | 113 | -6.1 | 108 | +9.3 | 122 | -9.1 | 112 | 0.38 | 65 |
| BowlingGreen | MAC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -15.5 | 116 | 116 | -9.2 | 120 | +6.0 | 112 | -11.0 | 121 | -4.98 | 112 |
| ArkansasState | Sun | 2-9 | 3-9 | -15.8 | 117 | 119 | -2.2 | 85 | +13.4 | 127 | -12.5 | 123 | -3.42 | 95 |
| NewMexico | MWC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -15.8 | 118 | 117 | -13.5 | 131 | +2.1 | 91 | -8.6 | 111 | -1.37 | 79 |
| LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 4-7 | 4-8 | -15.9 | 119 | 118 | -7.7 | 117 | +8.8 | 121 | -7.1 | 103 | -2.86 | 91 |
| SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 2-9 | 3-9 | -16.1 | 120 | 123 | -12.5 | 128 | +2.7 | 97 | -13.6 | 125 | -5.46 | 115 |
| Rice | CUSA | 3-8 | 3-9 | -16.6 | 121 | 120 | -10.0 | 121 | +6.9 | 115 | -8.6 | 110 | -2.66 | 89 |
| TexasState | Sun | 3-8 | 3-9 | -17.0 | 122 | 122 | -9.0 | 119 | +8.0 | 119 | -10.6 | 119 | -7.71 | 129 |
| Kansas | B12 | 2-9 | 2-10 | -17.7 | 123 | 121 | -7.2 | 115 | +11.1 | 123 | -8.3 | 107 | 4.36 | 27 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-9 | 2-10 | -19.1 | 124 | 126 | -11.4 | 125 | +7.5 | 116 | -11.9 | 122 | 2.25 | 49 |
| Temple | Amer | 3-8 | 3-9 | -22.2 | 125 | 125 | -11.9 | 127 | +11.1 | 124 | -9.3 | 115 | -3.19 | 92 |
| Akron | MAC | 2-9 | 2-10 | -22.8 | 126 | 124 | -10.3 | 122 | +12.4 | 125 | -15.3 | 128 | -3.67 | 99 |
| NewMexicoState | Ind | 1-10 | 2-10 | -22.8 | 127 | 127 | -7.2 | 114 | +16.0 | 131 | -14.3 | 127 | -4.57 | 108 |
| FCS | Z_FCS | 12-105 | 12-105 | -24.3 | 128 | 129 | -11.7 | 126 | +13.0 | 126 | -12.7 | 124 | 0.32 | 66 |
| FIU | CUSA | 1-10 | 1-11 | -24.9 | 129 | 128 | -10.7 | 124 | +13.7 | 130 | -19.5 | 131 | -7.31 | 124 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 1-10 | 1-11 | -26.3 | 130 | 131 | -12.7 | 129 | +13.7 | 129 | -16.3 | 129 | -3.27 | 93 |
| Connecticut | Ind | 1-10 | 1-11 | -26.6 | 131 | 130 | -13.0 | 130 | +13.5 | 128 | -17.3 | 130 | -3.55 | 97 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioState | B10 | 10-1 | 11-1 | +29.5 | 2 | 2 | +22.8 | 1 | -7.8 | 17 | +16.4 | 3 | 5.30 | 16 |
| Michigan | B10 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.9 | 6 | -10.5 | 9 | +16.7 | 2 | 6.06 | 11 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 8-3 | 9-3 | +18.9 | 7 | 5 | +5.9 | 32 | -12.7 | 6 | +12.7 | 12 | 8.84 | 2 |
| PennState | B10 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 9 | 12 | +2.7 | 53 | -13.6 | 4 | +8.6 | 28 | 8.03 | 3 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 9-2 | 9-3 | +12.2 | 24 | 13 | +6.6 | 25 | -4.7 | 39 | +13.3 | 8 | 6.99 | 6 |
| Iowa | B10 | 9-2 | 9-3 | +12.2 | 25 | 21 | +1.6 | 62 | -9.6 | 12 | +12.6 | 13 | 4.70 | 23 |
| Purdue | B10 | 7-4 | 8-4 | +11.9 | 26 | 25 | +4.0 | 45 | -7.5 | 20 | +9.2 | 22 | 7.06 | 5 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 3-8 | 4-8 | +10.5 | 32 | 28 | +4.3 | 43 | -8.0 | 16 | -4.4 | 89 | 7.47 | 4 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 7-4 | 7-5 | +9.3 | 37 | 42 | +2.1 | 56 | -7.3 | 22 | +4.8 | 41 | 4.08 | 30 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 5-6 | 6-6 | +1.6 | 69 | 66 | -2.5 | 88 | -4.1 | 47 | +0.6 | 69 | 4.44 | 26 |
| Illinois | B10 | 4-7 | 5-7 | +1.3 | 72 | 70 | -5.7 | 105 | -7.2 | 23 | -0.6 | 76 | 6.23 | 10 |
| Maryland | B10 | 5-6 | 5-7 | -2.7 | 87 | 82 | +1.7 | 61 | +5.1 | 106 | +2.4 | 56 | 5.19 | 17 |
| Indiana | B10 | 2-9 | 2-10 | -4.5 | 94 | 90 | -4.3 | 98 | -0.1 | 74 | -4.2 | 88 | 10.87 | 1 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-8 | 3-9 | -7.4 | 103 | 101 | -6.7 | 112 | +0.2 | 76 | -6.7 | 99 | 3.87 | 35 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 11-0 | 12-0 | +33.7 | 1 | 1 | +13.4 | 4 | -20.3 | 1 | +19.0 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 11-0 | 12-0 | +10.9 | 30 | 27 | +6.8 | 23 | -3.1 | 54 | +13.1 | 9 | 0.86 | 2 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 11-0 | 12-0 | +19.4 | 6 | 9 | +10.1 | 10 | -8.9 | 14 | +15.4 | 6 | 0.83 | 3 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
Now the more interesting set:
[TABLEHERE]
[insert comments as appropriate]
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario:
| Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
| Georgia | SEC | 11-0 | 12-0 | +33.7 | 1 | 1 | +13.4 | 4 | -20.3 | 1 | +19.0 | 1 | 1.00 | 1 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 10-1 | 11-1 | +21.3 | 5 | 6 | +8.9 | 15 | -11.8 | 7 | +16.4 | 4 | 0.95 | 5 |
| Alabama | SEC | 10-1 | 11-1 | +24.4 | 3 | 3 | +16.5 | 2 | -8.4 | 15 | +14.2 | 7 | 0.75 | 6 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 10-1 | 11-1 | +17.7 | 8 | 7 | +3.1 | 50 | -13.5 | 5 | +15.5 | 5 | 0.68 | 7 |
| OhioState | B10 | 10-1 | 11-1 | +29.5 | 2 | 2 | +22.8 | 1 | -7.8 | 17 | +16.4 | 3 | 0.60 | 8 |
| Michigan | B10 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +23.6 | 4 | 4 | +12.9 | 6 | -10.5 | 9 | +16.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 9 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +13.3 | 20 | 22 | +9.1 | 14 | -3.6 | 51 | +12.9 | 10 | 0.32 | 10 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
| Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | AP Diff | rk |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 10-1 | 10-2 | +4.9 | 60 | 59 | -4.3 | 97 | -7.7 | 19 | +11.1 | 16 | 0.34 | 21 |
| Oregon | P12 | 9-2 | 10-2 | +10.1 | 33 | 24 | +6.5 | 27 | -3.1 | 56 | +9.6 | 21 | 0.32 | 11 |
| BYU | Ind | 9-2 | 10-2 | +9.8 | 35 | 33 | +5.3 | 35 | -3.6 | 50 | +11.1 | 17 | 0.30 | 13 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 9-2 | 9-3 | +12.2 | 24 | 13 | +6.6 | 25 | -4.7 | 39 | +13.3 | 8 | 0.23 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 10-1 | 10-2 | +13.3 | 20 | 22 | +9.1 | 14 | -3.6 | 51 | +12.9 | 10 | 0.23 | 10 |
| Baylor | B12 | 9-2 | 10-2 | +14.8 | 15 | 17 | +4.4 | 42 | -9.7 | 10 | +12.9 | 11 | 0.23 | 8 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 9-2 | 10-2 | +14.5 | 16 | 10 | +9.9 | 11 | -4.4 | 43 | +11.6 | 15 | 0.21 | 9 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
| Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 2-9 | 2-10 | -19.1 | 124 | 126 | -11.4 | 125 | +7.5 | 116 | -11.9 | 122 | 2.25 | 49 |
| Kansas | B12 | 2-9 | 2-10 | -17.7 | 123 | 121 | -7.2 | 115 | +11.1 | 123 | -8.3 | 107 | 4.36 | 27 |
| Duke | ACC | 3-8 | 3-9 | -15.2 | 115 | 113 | -6.1 | 108 | +9.3 | 122 | -9.1 | 112 | 0.38 | 65 |
| Arizona | P12 | 1-10 | 1-11 | -11.9 | 110 | 111 | -8.1 | 118 | +2.6 | 96 | -13.7 | 126 | 2.57 | 46 |
| Stanford | P12 | 3-8 | 3-9 | -7.8 | 105 | 98 | -4.5 | 99 | +2.8 | 98 | -7.9 | 105 | 5.03 | 19 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 3-8 | 3-9 | -7.4 | 103 | 101 | -6.7 | 112 | +0.2 | 76 | -6.7 | 99 | 3.87 | 35 |
| Colorado | P12 | 4-7 | 4-8 | -6.4 | 99 | 104 | -7.2 | 113 | -1.3 | 69 | -6.9 | 101 | 3.00 | 42 |
| Indiana | B10 | 2-9 | 2-10 | -4.5 | 94 | 90 | -4.3 | 98 | -0.1 | 74 | -4.2 | 88 | 10.87 | 1 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #2 OhioState | H | #25 MichiganState | W | 56 | 7 |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #6 Cincinnati | H | #38 SMU | W | 48 | 14 |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #5 NotreDame | H | #90 GeorgiaTech | W | 55 | 0 |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #34 LouisianaLafayette | V | #50 Liberty | W | 42 | 14 |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #14 Utah | H | #33 Oregon | W | 38 | 7 |
And of the year (so far):
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #2 OhioState | H | #25 MichiganState | W | 56 | 7 |
| 8 | Sat | 2021-10-16 | #3 Alabama | V | #27 MississippiState | W | 49 | 9 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #1 Georgia | H | #55 UAB | W | 56 | 7 |
| 11 | Sat | 2021-11-06 | #7 Wisconsin | V | #70 Rutgers | W | 52 | 3 |
| 5 | Sat | 2021-09-25 | #5 NotreDame | N | #7 Wisconsin | W | 41 | 13 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #33 Oregon | V | #2 OhioState | W | 35 | 28 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #4 Michigan | H | #86 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
| 6 | Sat | 2021-10-02 | #4 Michigan | V | #7 Wisconsin | W | 38 | 17 |
| 8 | Tue | 2021-10-12 | #34 LouisianaLafayette | H | #19 AppalachianState | W | 41 | 13 |
| 13 | Sat | 2021-11-20 | #6 Cincinnati | H | #38 SMU | W | 48 | 14 |
[insert comments as appropriate]
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of XXX over XXX games, which would rank #XX (out of XX ratings systems) here: [LINK]
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | Prj W-Lk | Prj MOV | Veg Ln | Pk vs Veg |
| Nov 27 | #4 Michigan | H | #2 OhioState | 40% | -3.6 | -8.5 | Michigan |
| Nov 25 | #16 Mississippi | V | #27 MississippiState | 51% | 0.5 | -1.5 | Mississippi |
| Nov 27 | #24 MichiganState | H | #9 PennState | 45% | -1.9 | -1.0 | PennState |
| Nov 26 | #25 Iowa | V | #32 Nebraska | 48% | -0.7 | 1.5 | Nebraska |
| Nov 27 | #20 Oklahoma | V | #8 OklahomaState | 32% | -6.8 | -4.0 | OklahomaState |
| Nov 27 | #3 Alabama | V | #23 Auburn | 75% | 9.8 | 19.5 | Auburn |
| Nov 26 | #40 KansasState | V | #51 Texas | 48% | -0.7 | -3.0 | KansasState |
| Nov 27 | #37 Minnesota | H | #7 Wisconsin | 31% | -7.3 | -7.0 | Wisconsin |
| Nov 27 | #46 Marshall | H | #42 WesternKentucky | 56% | 2.0 | 1.0 | Marshall |
| Nov 27 | #54 LSU | H | #12 TexasAM | 33% | -6.3 | -6.5 | LSU |
| Nov 27 | #31 Louisville | H | #43 Kentucky | 63% | 4.9 | 3.0 | Louisville |
| Nov 27 | #33 Oregon | H | #45 OregonState | 62% | 4.4 | 7.0 | OregonState |
| Nov 27 | #52 Army | V | #50 Liberty | 42% | -2.9 | -3.5 | Army |
| Nov 27 | #58 FloridaState | V | #49 Florida | 38% | -4.3 | -3.0 | Florida |
| Nov 26 | #13 BoiseState | V | #60 SanDiegoState | 71% | 8.0 | 2.5 | BoiseState |
| Nov 26 | #10 NorthCarolinaState | H | #48 NorthCarolina | 77% | 10.8 | 6.0 | NorthCarolinaState |
| Nov 27 | #63 Syracuse | H | #11 Pittsburgh | 25% | -9.6 | -13.0 | Syracuse |
| Nov 27 | #18 Clemson | V | #64 SouthCarolina | 73% | 8.8 | 11.5 | SouthCarolina |
| Nov 26 | #81 Washington | H | #67 WashingtonState | 47% | -1.0 | -1.0 | WashingtonState |
| Nov 27 | #56 Virginia | H | #66 VirginiaTech | 66% | 6.0 | 7.0 | VirginiaTech |
| Nov 23 | #80 NorthernIllinois | H | #74 WesternMichigan | 54% | 1.3 | -7.0 | NorthernIllinois |
| Nov 27 | #70 BostonCollege | H | #17 WakeForest | 24% | -10.5 | -4.5 | WakeForest |
| Nov 26 | #6 Cincinnati | V | #65 EastCarolina | 83% | 14.1 | 14.0 | Cincinnati |
| Nov 27 | #35 BYU | V | #79 USC | 71% | 8.2 | 7.0 | BYU |
| Nov 26 | #75 CentralMichigan | H | #82 EasternMichigan | 60% | 3.7 | 8.5 | EasternMichigan |
| Nov 27 | #71 California | V | #41 UCLA | 26% | -9.3 | -6.5 | UCLA |
| Nov 27 | #91 FloridaAtlantic | H | #88 MiddleTennessee | 55% | 1.7 | 3.5 | MiddleTennessee |
| Nov 27 | #89 ColoradoState | H | #53 Nevada | 29% | -7.9 | -4.0 | Nevada |
| Nov 27 | #87 Maryland | V | #69 Rutgers | 32% | -6.6 | 1.5 | Rutgers |
| Nov 27 | #102 KentState | H | #73 MiamiOH | 34% | -6.0 | 1.0 | MiamiOH |
| Nov 26 | #78 Missouri | V | #28 Arkansas | 17% | -14.2 | -14.5 | Missouri |
| Nov 27 | #77 Memphis | H | #96 Tulane | 68% | 6.9 | 6.0 | Memphis |
| Nov 27 | #38 SMU | H | #84 Tulsa | 82% | 13.3 | 6.5 | SMU |
| Nov 27 | #92 GeorgiaState | H | #100 Troy | 63% | 4.9 | 6.5 | Troy |
| Nov 23 | #98 Buffalo | V | #86 BallState | 34% | -6.0 | -6.0 | Buffalo |
| Nov 26 | #21 IowaState | H | #83 TCU | 87% | 17.2 | 15.0 | IowaState |
| Nov 27 | #15 Baylor | H | #85 TexasTech | 90% | 19.3 | 14.0 | Baylor |
| Nov 26 | #39 CoastalCarolina | V | #106 SouthAlabama | 83% | 14.3 | 15.0 | SouthAlabama |
| Nov 27 | #72 Illinois | H | #103 Northwestern | 77% | 11.0 | 6.5 | Illinois |
| Nov 26 | #55 UAB | H | #97 UTEP | 84% | 14.6 | 13.5 | UAB |
| Nov 27 | #104 NorthTexas | H | #30 UTSA | 14% | -16.2 | -10.5 | UTSA |
| Nov 26 | #116 BowlingGreen | H | #111 Ohio | 47% | -1.1 | -6.0 | BowlingGreen |
| Nov 27 | #94 Indiana | V | #26 Purdue | 11% | -18.7 | -15.0 | Purdue |
| Nov 25 | #44 FresnoState | V | #108 SanJoseState | 84% | 14.7 | 7.5 | FresnoState |
| Nov 27 | #76 Wyoming | H | #107 Hawaii | 77% | 10.9 | 10.0 | Wyoming |
| Nov 27 | #101 LouisianaTech | V | #121 Rice | 69% | 7.2 | 3.5 | LouisianaTech |
| Nov 26 | #99 Colorado | V | #14 Utah | 7% | -23.7 | -23.5 | Utah |
| Nov 27 | #90 GeorgiaTech | H | #1 Georgia | 2% | -34.8 | -35.0 | GeorgiaTech |
| Nov 27 | #5 NotreDame | V | #105 Stanford | 95% | 26.7 | 19.0 | NotreDame |
| Nov 27 | #117 ArkansasState | H | #122 TexasState | 60% | 3.6 | 2.0 | ArkansasState |
| Nov 27 | #113 Charlotte | V | #93 OldDominion | 22% | -11.5 | -9.5 | OldDominion |
| Nov 26 | #118 NewMexico | H | #68 UtahState | 16% | -15.1 | -15.5 | NewMexico |
| Nov 26 | #36 AirForce | H | #109 UNLV | 92% | 22.4 | 18.0 | AirForce |
| Nov 26 | #62 CentralFlorida | H | #112 SouthFlorida | 89% | 18.9 | 18.5 | CentralFlorida |
| Nov 27 | #110 Arizona | V | #57 ArizonaState | 9% | -20.5 | -20.0 | ArizonaState |
| Nov 27 | #115 Duke | H | #47 Miami | 9% | -20.7 | -21.5 | Duke |
| Nov 27 | #123 Kansas | H | #61 WestVirginia | 10% | -19.5 | -15.5 | WestVirginia |
| Nov 27 | #125 Temple | H | #95 Navy | 15% | -15.2 | -12.5 | Navy |
| Nov 27 | #19 AppalachianState | H | #114 GeorgiaSouthern | 96% | 29.4 | 24.5 | AppalachianState |
| Nov 27 | #130 Massachusetts | V | #127 NewMexicoState | 34% | -5.8 | -6.0 | Massachusetts |
| Nov 27 | #34 LouisianaLafayette | H | #119 LouisianaMonroe | 96% | 28.2 | 21.5 | LouisianaLafayette |
| Nov 27 | #129 FIU | V | #120 SouthernMississippi | 22% | -11.1 | -10.5 | SouthernMississippi |
| Nov 27 | #22 Tennessee | H | #124 Vanderbilt | 98% | 34.2 | 31.0 | Tennessee |
| Nov 27 | #126 Akron | V | #59 Toledo | 3% | -30.0 | -28.5 | Toledo |
| Nov 27 | #29 Houston | V | #131 Connecticut | 98% | 35.2 | 32.0 | Houston |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | Prj W-Lk | Prj MOV | Veg Ln | Pk vs Veg |
| Nov 27 | #4 Michigan | H | #2 OhioState | 40% | -3.6 | -8.5 | Michigan |
| Nov 27 | #24 MichiganState | H | #9 PennState | 45% | -1.9 | -1.0 | PennState |
| Nov 26 | #25 Iowa | V | #32 Nebraska | 48% | -0.7 | 1.5 | Nebraska |
| Nov 27 | #37 Minnesota | H | #7 Wisconsin | 31% | -7.3 | -7.0 | Wisconsin |
| Nov 27 | #87 Maryland | V | #69 Rutgers | 32% | -6.6 | 1.5 | Rutgers |
| Nov 27 | #72 Illinois | H | #103 Northwestern | 77% | 11.0 | 6.5 | Illinois |
| Nov 27 | #94 Indiana | V | #26 Purdue | 11% | -18.7 | -15.0 | Purdue |
[insert comments as appropriate]
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