FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 14

[introduction]

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 11-0 12-0 +33.7 1 1 +13.4 4 -20.3 1 +19.0 1 2.51 47
OhioState B10 10-1 11-1 +29.5 2 2 +22.8 1 -7.8 17 +16.4 3 5.30 16
Alabama SEC 10-1 11-1 +24.4 3 3 +16.5 2 -8.4 15 +14.2 7 3.44 37
Michigan B10 10-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.9 6 -10.5 9 +16.7 2 6.06 11
NotreDame Ind 10-1 11-1 +21.3 5 6 +8.9 15 -11.8 7 +16.4 4 5.03 18
Cincinnati Amer 11-0 12-0 +19.4 6 9 +10.1 10 -8.9 14 +15.4 6 -3.51 96
Wisconsin B10 8-3 9-3 +18.9 7 5 +5.9 32 -12.7 6 +12.7 12 8.84 2
OklahomaState B12 10-1 11-1 +17.7 8 7 +3.1 50 -13.5 5 +15.5 5 2.75 44
PennState B10 7-4 8-4 +16.4 9 12 +2.7 53 -13.6 4 +8.6 28 8.03 3
NorthCarolinaState ACC 8-3 9-3 +15.9 10 15 +4.5 39 -11.6 8 +7.8 30 3.89 34
Pittsburgh ACC 9-2 10-2 +15.8 11 11 +13.1 5 -3.1 55 +9.0 23 -1.01 75
TexasAM SEC 8-3 9-3 +15.5 12 16 +1.5 65 -13.8 3 +9.0 24 1.90 51
BoiseState MWC 7-4 8-4 +15.3 13 14 +5.7 34 -9.6 11 +8.6 27 3.10 41
Utah P12 8-3 9-3 +15.0 14 20 +9.4 13 -5.8 29 +9.0 25 0.57 64
Baylor B12 9-2 10-2 +14.8 15 17 +4.4 42 -9.7 10 +12.9 11 -0.12 69
Mississippi SEC 9-2 10-2 +14.5 16 10 +9.9 11 -4.4 43 +11.6 15 5.49 15
WakeForest ACC 9-2 10-2 +14.3 17 8 +16.0 3 +1.8 89 +11.7 14 2.15 50
Clemson ACC 8-3 9-3 +14.3 18 23 -0.9 79 -14.7 2 +8.8 26 4.05 32
AppalachianState Sun 9-2 11-3 +13.5 19 26 +7.1 21 -6.1 27 +10.4 20 -2.50 86
Oklahoma B12 10-1 10-2 +13.3 20 22 +9.1 14 -3.6 51 +12.9 10 1.17 59
IowaState B12 6-5 7-5 +13.3 21 18 +6.5 26 -7.3 21 +4.8 40 4.06 31
Tennessee SEC 6-5 7-5 +12.9 22 30 +11.7 8 -2.1 62 +4.1 45 2.36 48
Auburn SEC 6-5 6-6 +12.2 23 19 +6.6 24 -6.1 28 +4.7 42 6.97 7
MichiganState B10 9-2 9-3 +12.2 24 13 +6.6 25 -4.7 39 +13.3 8 6.99 6
Iowa B10 9-2 9-3 +12.2 25 21 +1.6 62 -9.6 12 +12.6 13 4.70 23
Purdue B10 7-4 8-4 +11.9 26 25 +4.0 45 -7.5 20 +9.2 22 7.06 5
MississippiState SEC 7-4 7-5 +11.6 27 35 +7.1 19 -4.7 38 +6.5 34 5.90 12
Arkansas SEC 7-4 8-4 +11.2 28 31 +5.8 33 -5.3 33 +7.4 31 5.02 20
Houston Amer 10-1 11-1 +11.1 29 32 +6.2 31 -4.3 45 +10.6 19 -8.97 130
UTSA CUSA 11-0 12-0 +10.9 30 27 +6.8 23 -3.1 54 +13.1 9 -7.67 128
Louisville ACC 6-5 7-5 +10.8 31 36 +6.4 29 -5.1 34 +3.0 52 4.19 29
Nebraska B10 3-8 4-8 +10.5 32 28 +4.3 43 -8.0 16 -4.4 89 7.47 4
Oregon P12 9-2 10-2 +10.1 33 24 +6.5 27 -3.1 56 +9.6 21 1.62 52
LouisianaLafayette Sun 10-1 12-2 +10.0 34 51 +2.0 57 -7.1 24 +10.9 18 -3.61 98
BYU Ind 9-2 10-2 +9.8 35 33 +5.3 35 -3.6 50 +11.1 17 0.04 68
AirForce MWC 8-3 9-3 +9.6 36 38 +1.4 66 -7.8 18 +8.1 29 -1.96 81
Minnesota B10 7-4 7-5 +9.3 37 42 +2.1 56 -7.3 22 +4.8 41 4.08 30
SMU Amer 8-3 9-3 +9.0 38 29 +8.9 16 -0.1 73 +6.2 37 -2.61 88
CoastalCarolina Sun 9-2 10-2 +8.6 39 40 +6.9 22 -1.9 63 +4.2 44 -11.15 131
KansasState B12 7-4 7-5 +8.5 40 37 -0.9 80 -9.1 13 +6.4 35 2.93 43
UCLA P12 7-4 8-4 +8.4 41 56 +10.1 9 +1.3 85 +3.6 48 0.90 61
WesternKentucky CUSA 7-4 7-5 +8.4 42 50 +11.8 7 +2.6 95 +1.4 64 -4.56 107
Kentucky SEC 8-3 8-4 +8.3 43 55 +3.4 48 -4.7 40 +6.3 36 1.25 58
FresnoState MWC 8-3 9-3 +8.2 44 46 +4.5 37 -3.4 52 +6.8 33 -4.62 109
OregonState P12 7-4 7-5 +8.0 45 54 +6.5 28 -1.9 64 +3.1 51 0.84 62
Marshall CUSA 7-4 8-4 +8.0 46 49 +4.0 46 -4.7 37 +0.8 68 -5.10 113
Miami ACC 6-5 7-5 +7.9 47 44 +6.3 30 -1.8 67 +4.2 43 4.28 28
NorthCarolina ACC 6-5 6-6 +7.4 48 41 +8.7 17 +0.7 82 +1.9 60 4.73 22
Florida SEC 5-6 6-6 +7.4 49 43 +4.4 40 -4.0 49 -1.2 82 3.97 33
Liberty Ind 7-4 8-4 +7.4 50 34 +3.3 49 -4.4 42 +2.3 57 -3.74 100
Texas B12 4-7 5-7 +6.9 51 45 +9.8 12 +2.0 90 -0.7 78 4.58 25
Army Ind 7-3 8-4 +6.9 52 39 +4.4 41 -2.3 60 +5.3 39 -2.77 90
Nevada MWC 7-4 8-4 +6.9 53 52 +7.1 20 +0.1 75 +3.8 47 -2.40 85
LSU SEC 5-6 5-7 +6.8 54 48 +0.9 68 -6.3 26 +1.3 65 6.53 8
UAB CUSA 7-4 8-4 +6.4 55 57 +2.0 58 -4.3 46 +4.1 46 -0.95 74
Virginia ACC 6-5 7-5 +6.3 56 53 +7.8 18 +1.3 84 +3.5 49 3.82 36
ArizonaState P12 7-4 8-4 +6.3 57 47 +0.8 70 -5.6 30 +2.9 54 -2.02 82
FloridaState ACC 5-6 5-7 +5.5 58 61 +3.0 51 -3.0 57 +0.5 71 5.78 13
Toledo MAC 6-5 7-5 +5.0 59 62 +1.6 63 -4.1 48 -1.2 81 -7.58 127
SanDiegoState MWC 10-1 10-2 +4.9 60 59 -4.3 97 -7.7 19 +11.1 16 -4.05 101
WestVirginia B12 5-6 6-6 +4.2 61 64 -1.0 81 -5.4 31 +1.2 66 1.35 55
CentralFlorida Amer 7-4 8-4 +4.0 62 65 +3.6 47 -0.4 72 +2.7 55 -3.38 94
Syracuse ACC 5-6 5-7 +3.8 63 58 +1.2 67 -3.1 53 -0.9 80 4.76 21
SouthCarolina SEC 6-5 6-6 +3.1 64 72 -2.1 84 -4.9 36 +3.4 50 4.59 24
EastCarolina Amer 7-4 7-5 +2.9 65 67 +0.9 69 -1.9 66 +2.9 53 -0.66 70
VirginiaTech ACC 5-6 5-7 +2.7 66 63 -3.1 91 -6.4 25 -2.5 86 2.72 45
WashingtonState P12 6-5 7-5 +2.2 67 68 -0.4 75 -2.7 59 +0.5 70 0.57 63
UtahState MWC 8-3 9-3 +1.6 68 60 +4.1 44 +3.3 101 +5.8 38 -4.36 104
Rutgers B10 5-6 6-6 +1.6 69 66 -2.5 88 -4.1 47 +0.6 69 4.44 26
BostonCollege ACC 6-5 6-6 +1.5 70 69 -2.8 89 -4.6 41 -1.2 83 -0.77 73
California P12 4-6 5-7 +1.5 71 80 -2.3 87 -5.1 35 -7.2 104 -1.18 77
Illinois B10 4-7 5-7 +1.3 72 70 -5.7 105 -7.2 23 -0.6 76 6.23 10
MiamiOH MAC 6-5 7-5 +1.1 73 73 -3.0 90 -4.3 44 -0.7 77 -5.76 117
WesternMichigan MAC 6-5 6-6 +0.2 74 74 +1.7 60 +1.7 88 +1.5 62 -1.27 78
CentralMichigan MAC 7-4 8-4 +0.0 75 87 +1.9 59 +2.2 92 +2.1 58 -5.18 114
Wyoming MWC 6-5 7-5 -0.4 76 92 -3.4 92 -3.0 58 +0.2 73 -4.08 102
Memphis Amer 5-6 6-6 -0.4 77 76 +0.4 72 +0.6 79 -1.6 85 -1.04 76
Missouri SEC 6-5 6-6 -0.7 78 89 +4.5 38 +5.6 109 +1.9 59 3.35 39
USC P12 4-6 5-7 -0.8 79 71 +4.9 36 +5.2 107 -3.9 87 3.12 40
NorthernIllinois MAC 8-3 9-3 -0.8 80 85 +2.5 54 +4.7 104 +7.4 32 -2.02 83
Washington P12 4-7 4-8 -1.2 81 77 -5.5 102 -5.4 32 -6.9 102 0.26 67
EasternMichigan MAC 7-4 7-5 -1.3 82 86 +2.3 55 +3.9 102 +0.8 67 -5.92 119
TCU B12 5-6 5-7 -1.7 83 75 +2.8 52 +4.7 105 +0.4 72 3.38 38
Tulsa Amer 5-6 5-7 -2.0 84 93 -3.8 94 -1.9 65 -1.6 84 1.32 56
TexasTech B12 6-5 6-6 -2.1 85 81 +1.5 64 +4.2 103 +1.6 61 1.49 54
BallState MAC 5-6 6-6 -2.4 86 79 -1.9 83 +0.7 81 -0.5 75 -0.73 71
Maryland B10 5-6 5-7 -2.7 87 82 +1.7 61 +5.1 106 +2.4 56 5.19 17
MiddleTennessee CUSA 5-6 5-7 -3.0 88 84 -0.5 77 +1.7 87 -6.8 100 -6.61 121
ColoradoState MWC 3-8 3-9 -3.4 89 88 -1.2 82 +1.1 83 -8.4 109 -0.76 72
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-8 3-9 -3.5 90 78 -0.4 76 +2.4 94 -6.7 97 6.28 9
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 5-6 6-6 -3.7 91 83 -3.6 93 -0.4 71 -5.2 93 -4.52 106
GeorgiaState Sun 6-5 7-5 -3.9 92 91 -4.0 95 +0.6 80 +1.4 63 -1.95 80
OldDominion CUSA 5-6 6-6 -4.0 93 94 -5.6 103 -2.2 61 -5.6 94 -4.87 111
Indiana B10 2-9 2-10 -4.5 94 90 -4.3 98 -0.1 74 -4.2 88 10.87 1
Navy Amer 2-8 3-9 -4.6 95 97 -5.0 100 -0.8 70 -5.1 92 5.63 14
Tulane Amer 2-9 2-10 -4.9 96 103 -0.9 78 +3.2 99 -8.3 108 1.26 57
UTEP CUSA 7-4 7-5 -5.9 97 99 -6.0 107 +0.4 77 -0.7 79 -7.34 125
Buffalo MAC 4-7 4-8 -6.1 98 100 +0.5 71 +5.6 110 -9.8 116 -6.75 123
Colorado P12 4-7 4-8 -6.4 99 104 -7.2 113 -1.3 69 -6.9 101 3.00 42
Troy Sun 5-6 5-7 -6.5 100 96 -5.9 106 +0.4 78 -4.5 90 -5.65 116
LouisianaTech CUSA 3-8 4-8 -7.0 101 95 -0.1 74 +6.2 113 -9.2 114 -2.09 84
KentState MAC 6-5 6-6 -7.2 102 107 +0.3 73 +8.4 120 -0.3 74 -6.42 120
Northwestern B10 3-8 3-9 -7.4 103 101 -6.7 112 +0.2 76 -6.7 99 3.87 35
NorthTexas CUSA 5-6 5-7 -7.7 104 109 -5.3 101 +2.3 93 -5.9 96 -4.69 110
Stanford P12 3-8 3-9 -7.8 105 98 -4.5 99 +2.8 98 -7.9 105 5.03 19
SouthAlabama Sun 5-6 5-7 -8.1 106 102 -6.4 110 +1.3 86 -6.7 98 -6.70 122
Hawaii MWC 5-7 5-8 -8.9 107 106 -2.3 86 +6.6 114 -5.7 95 -4.20 103
SanJoseState MWC 5-6 5-7 -8.9 108 105 -10.6 123 -1.7 68 -4.5 91 -4.50 105
UNLV MWC 2-9 2-10 -10.4 109 108 -6.7 111 +3.3 100 -9.2 113 1.53 53
Arizona P12 1-10 1-11 -11.9 110 111 -8.1 118 +2.6 96 -13.7 126 2.57 46
Ohio MAC 3-8 4-8 -12.1 111 114 -6.3 109 +5.2 108 -10.9 120 -5.81 118
SouthFlorida Amer 2-9 2-10 -12.5 112 110 -4.2 96 +8.0 118 -10.4 118 0.99 60
Charlotte CUSA 5-6 5-7 -13.2 113 112 -5.7 104 +7.5 117 -8.3 106 -7.43 126
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 3-8 3-9 -13.6 114 115 -7.5 116 +5.8 111 -10.2 117 -2.52 87
Duke ACC 3-8 3-9 -15.2 115 113 -6.1 108 +9.3 122 -9.1 112 0.38 65
BowlingGreen MAC 3-8 3-9 -15.5 116 116 -9.2 120 +6.0 112 -11.0 121 -4.98 112
ArkansasState Sun 2-9 3-9 -15.8 117 119 -2.2 85 +13.4 127 -12.5 123 -3.42 95
NewMexico MWC 3-8 3-9 -15.8 118 117 -13.5 131 +2.1 91 -8.6 111 -1.37 79
LouisianaMonroe Sun 4-7 4-8 -15.9 119 118 -7.7 117 +8.8 121 -7.1 103 -2.86 91
SouthernMississippi CUSA 2-9 3-9 -16.1 120 123 -12.5 128 +2.7 97 -13.6 125 -5.46 115
Rice CUSA 3-8 3-9 -16.6 121 120 -10.0 121 +6.9 115 -8.6 110 -2.66 89
TexasState Sun 3-8 3-9 -17.0 122 122 -9.0 119 +8.0 119 -10.6 119 -7.71 129
Kansas B12 2-9 2-10 -17.7 123 121 -7.2 115 +11.1 123 -8.3 107 4.36 27
Vanderbilt SEC 2-9 2-10 -19.1 124 126 -11.4 125 +7.5 116 -11.9 122 2.25 49
Temple Amer 3-8 3-9 -22.2 125 125 -11.9 127 +11.1 124 -9.3 115 -3.19 92
Akron MAC 2-9 2-10 -22.8 126 124 -10.3 122 +12.4 125 -15.3 128 -3.67 99
NewMexicoState Ind 1-10 2-10 -22.8 127 127 -7.2 114 +16.0 131 -14.3 127 -4.57 108
FCS Z_FCS 12-105 12-105 -24.3 128 129 -11.7 126 +13.0 126 -12.7 124 0.32 66
FIU CUSA 1-10 1-11 -24.9 129 128 -10.7 124 +13.7 130 -19.5 131 -7.31 124
Massachusetts Ind 1-10 1-11 -26.3 130 131 -12.7 129 +13.7 129 -16.3 129 -3.27 93
Connecticut Ind 1-10 1-11 -26.6 131 130 -13.0 130 +13.5 128 -17.3 130 -3.55 97

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 10-1 11-1 +29.5 2 2 +22.8 1 -7.8 17 +16.4 3 5.30 16
Michigan B10 10-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.9 6 -10.5 9 +16.7 2 6.06 11
Wisconsin B10 8-3 9-3 +18.9 7 5 +5.9 32 -12.7 6 +12.7 12 8.84 2
PennState B10 7-4 8-4 +16.4 9 12 +2.7 53 -13.6 4 +8.6 28 8.03 3
MichiganState B10 9-2 9-3 +12.2 24 13 +6.6 25 -4.7 39 +13.3 8 6.99 6
Iowa B10 9-2 9-3 +12.2 25 21 +1.6 62 -9.6 12 +12.6 13 4.70 23
Purdue B10 7-4 8-4 +11.9 26 25 +4.0 45 -7.5 20 +9.2 22 7.06 5
Nebraska B10 3-8 4-8 +10.5 32 28 +4.3 43 -8.0 16 -4.4 89 7.47 4
Minnesota B10 7-4 7-5 +9.3 37 42 +2.1 56 -7.3 22 +4.8 41 4.08 30
Rutgers B10 5-6 6-6 +1.6 69 66 -2.5 88 -4.1 47 +0.6 69 4.44 26
Illinois B10 4-7 5-7 +1.3 72 70 -5.7 105 -7.2 23 -0.6 76 6.23 10
Maryland B10 5-6 5-7 -2.7 87 82 +1.7 61 +5.1 106 +2.4 56 5.19 17
Indiana B10 2-9 2-10 -4.5 94 90 -4.3 98 -0.1 74 -4.2 88 10.87 1
Northwestern B10 3-8 3-9 -7.4 103 101 -6.7 112 +0.2 76 -6.7 99 3.87 35

[insert comments as appropriate]

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 11-0 12-0 +33.7 1 1 +13.4 4 -20.3 1 +19.0 1 0.98 1
UTSA CUSA 11-0 12-0 +10.9 30 27 +6.8 23 -3.1 54 +13.1 9 0.86 2
Cincinnati Amer 11-0 12-0 +19.4 6 9 +10.1 10 -8.9 14 +15.4 6 0.83 3

[insert comments as appropriate]

Now the more interesting set:

[TABLEHERE]

[insert comments as appropriate]

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario:

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 11-0 12-0 +33.7 1 1 +13.4 4 -20.3 1 +19.0 1 1.00 1
NotreDame Ind 10-1 11-1 +21.3 5 6 +8.9 15 -11.8 7 +16.4 4 0.95 5
Alabama SEC 10-1 11-1 +24.4 3 3 +16.5 2 -8.4 15 +14.2 7 0.75 6
OklahomaState B12 10-1 11-1 +17.7 8 7 +3.1 50 -13.5 5 +15.5 5 0.68 7
OhioState B10 10-1 11-1 +29.5 2 2 +22.8 1 -7.8 17 +16.4 3 0.60 8
Michigan B10 10-1 10-2 +23.6 4 4 +12.9 6 -10.5 9 +16.7 2 0.40 9
Oklahoma B12 10-1 10-2 +13.3 20 22 +9.1 14 -3.6 51 +12.9 10 0.32 10

[insert comments as appropriate]

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff rk
SanDiegoState MWC 10-1 10-2 +4.9 60 59 -4.3 97 -7.7 19 +11.1 16 0.34 21
Oregon P12 9-2 10-2 +10.1 33 24 +6.5 27 -3.1 56 +9.6 21 0.32 11
BYU Ind 9-2 10-2 +9.8 35 33 +5.3 35 -3.6 50 +11.1 17 0.30 13
MichiganState B10 9-2 9-3 +12.2 24 13 +6.6 25 -4.7 39 +13.3 8 0.23 12
Oklahoma B12 10-1 10-2 +13.3 20 22 +9.1 14 -3.6 51 +12.9 10 0.23 10
Baylor B12 9-2 10-2 +14.8 15 17 +4.4 42 -9.7 10 +12.9 11 0.23 8
Mississippi SEC 9-2 10-2 +14.5 16 10 +9.9 11 -4.4 43 +11.6 15 0.21 9

[insert comments as appropriate]

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 2-9 2-10 -19.1 124 126 -11.4 125 +7.5 116 -11.9 122 2.25 49
Kansas B12 2-9 2-10 -17.7 123 121 -7.2 115 +11.1 123 -8.3 107 4.36 27
Duke ACC 3-8 3-9 -15.2 115 113 -6.1 108 +9.3 122 -9.1 112 0.38 65
Arizona P12 1-10 1-11 -11.9 110 111 -8.1 118 +2.6 96 -13.7 126 2.57 46
Stanford P12 3-8 3-9 -7.8 105 98 -4.5 99 +2.8 98 -7.9 105 5.03 19
Northwestern B10 3-8 3-9 -7.4 103 101 -6.7 112 +0.2 76 -6.7 99 3.87 35
Colorado P12 4-7 4-8 -6.4 99 104 -7.2 113 -1.3 69 -6.9 101 3.00 42
Indiana B10 2-9 2-10 -4.5 94 90 -4.3 98 -0.1 74 -4.2 88 10.87 1

[insert comments as appropriate]

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #2 OhioState H #25 MichiganState W 56 7
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #6 Cincinnati H #38 SMU W 48 14
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #5 NotreDame H #90 GeorgiaTech W 55 0
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #34 LouisianaLafayette V #50 Liberty W 42 14
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #14 Utah H #33 Oregon W 38 7

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #2 OhioState H #25 MichiganState W 56 7
8 Sat 2021-10-16 #3 Alabama V #27 MississippiState W 49 9
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #55 UAB W 56 7
11 Sat 2021-11-06 #7 Wisconsin V #70 Rutgers W 52 3
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #5 NotreDame N #7 Wisconsin W 41 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #33 Oregon V #2 OhioState W 35 28
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #4 Michigan H #86 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
6 Sat 2021-10-02 #4 Michigan V #7 Wisconsin W 38 17
8 Tue 2021-10-12 #34 LouisianaLafayette H #19 AppalachianState W 41 13
13 Sat 2021-11-20 #6 Cincinnati H #38 SMU W 48 14

[insert comments as appropriate]

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of XXX over XXX games, which would rank #XX (out of XX ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent Prj W-Lk Prj MOV Veg Ln Pk vs Veg
Nov 27 #4 Michigan H #2 OhioState 40% -3.6 -8.5 Michigan
Nov 25 #16 Mississippi V #27 MississippiState 51% 0.5 -1.5 Mississippi
Nov 27 #24 MichiganState H #9 PennState 45% -1.9 -1.0 PennState
Nov 26 #25 Iowa V #32 Nebraska 48% -0.7 1.5 Nebraska
Nov 27 #20 Oklahoma V #8 OklahomaState 32% -6.8 -4.0 OklahomaState
Nov 27 #3 Alabama V #23 Auburn 75% 9.8 19.5 Auburn
Nov 26 #40 KansasState V #51 Texas 48% -0.7 -3.0 KansasState
Nov 27 #37 Minnesota H #7 Wisconsin 31% -7.3 -7.0 Wisconsin
Nov 27 #46 Marshall H #42 WesternKentucky 56% 2.0 1.0 Marshall
Nov 27 #54 LSU H #12 TexasAM 33% -6.3 -6.5 LSU
Nov 27 #31 Louisville H #43 Kentucky 63% 4.9 3.0 Louisville
Nov 27 #33 Oregon H #45 OregonState 62% 4.4 7.0 OregonState
Nov 27 #52 Army V #50 Liberty 42% -2.9 -3.5 Army
Nov 27 #58 FloridaState V #49 Florida 38% -4.3 -3.0 Florida
Nov 26 #13 BoiseState V #60 SanDiegoState 71% 8.0 2.5 BoiseState
Nov 26 #10 NorthCarolinaState H #48 NorthCarolina 77% 10.8 6.0 NorthCarolinaState
Nov 27 #63 Syracuse H #11 Pittsburgh 25% -9.6 -13.0 Syracuse
Nov 27 #18 Clemson V #64 SouthCarolina 73% 8.8 11.5 SouthCarolina
Nov 26 #81 Washington H #67 WashingtonState 47% -1.0 -1.0 WashingtonState
Nov 27 #56 Virginia H #66 VirginiaTech 66% 6.0 7.0 VirginiaTech
Nov 23 #80 NorthernIllinois H #74 WesternMichigan 54% 1.3 -7.0 NorthernIllinois
Nov 27 #70 BostonCollege H #17 WakeForest 24% -10.5 -4.5 WakeForest
Nov 26 #6 Cincinnati V #65 EastCarolina 83% 14.1 14.0 Cincinnati
Nov 27 #35 BYU V #79 USC 71% 8.2 7.0 BYU
Nov 26 #75 CentralMichigan H #82 EasternMichigan 60% 3.7 8.5 EasternMichigan
Nov 27 #71 California V #41 UCLA 26% -9.3 -6.5 UCLA
Nov 27 #91 FloridaAtlantic H #88 MiddleTennessee 55% 1.7 3.5 MiddleTennessee
Nov 27 #89 ColoradoState H #53 Nevada 29% -7.9 -4.0 Nevada
Nov 27 #87 Maryland V #69 Rutgers 32% -6.6 1.5 Rutgers
Nov 27 #102 KentState H #73 MiamiOH 34% -6.0 1.0 MiamiOH
Nov 26 #78 Missouri V #28 Arkansas 17% -14.2 -14.5 Missouri
Nov 27 #77 Memphis H #96 Tulane 68% 6.9 6.0 Memphis
Nov 27 #38 SMU H #84 Tulsa 82% 13.3 6.5 SMU
Nov 27 #92 GeorgiaState H #100 Troy 63% 4.9 6.5 Troy
Nov 23 #98 Buffalo V #86 BallState 34% -6.0 -6.0 Buffalo
Nov 26 #21 IowaState H #83 TCU 87% 17.2 15.0 IowaState
Nov 27 #15 Baylor H #85 TexasTech 90% 19.3 14.0 Baylor
Nov 26 #39 CoastalCarolina V #106 SouthAlabama 83% 14.3 15.0 SouthAlabama
Nov 27 #72 Illinois H #103 Northwestern 77% 11.0 6.5 Illinois
Nov 26 #55 UAB H #97 UTEP 84% 14.6 13.5 UAB
Nov 27 #104 NorthTexas H #30 UTSA 14% -16.2 -10.5 UTSA
Nov 26 #116 BowlingGreen H #111 Ohio 47% -1.1 -6.0 BowlingGreen
Nov 27 #94 Indiana V #26 Purdue 11% -18.7 -15.0 Purdue
Nov 25 #44 FresnoState V #108 SanJoseState 84% 14.7 7.5 FresnoState
Nov 27 #76 Wyoming H #107 Hawaii 77% 10.9 10.0 Wyoming
Nov 27 #101 LouisianaTech V #121 Rice 69% 7.2 3.5 LouisianaTech
Nov 26 #99 Colorado V #14 Utah 7% -23.7 -23.5 Utah
Nov 27 #90 GeorgiaTech H #1 Georgia 2% -34.8 -35.0 GeorgiaTech
Nov 27 #5 NotreDame V #105 Stanford 95% 26.7 19.0 NotreDame
Nov 27 #117 ArkansasState H #122 TexasState 60% 3.6 2.0 ArkansasState
Nov 27 #113 Charlotte V #93 OldDominion 22% -11.5 -9.5 OldDominion
Nov 26 #118 NewMexico H #68 UtahState 16% -15.1 -15.5 NewMexico
Nov 26 #36 AirForce H #109 UNLV 92% 22.4 18.0 AirForce
Nov 26 #62 CentralFlorida H #112 SouthFlorida 89% 18.9 18.5 CentralFlorida
Nov 27 #110 Arizona V #57 ArizonaState 9% -20.5 -20.0 ArizonaState
Nov 27 #115 Duke H #47 Miami 9% -20.7 -21.5 Duke
Nov 27 #123 Kansas H #61 WestVirginia 10% -19.5 -15.5 WestVirginia
Nov 27 #125 Temple H #95 Navy 15% -15.2 -12.5 Navy
Nov 27 #19 AppalachianState H #114 GeorgiaSouthern 96% 29.4 24.5 AppalachianState
Nov 27 #130 Massachusetts V #127 NewMexicoState 34% -5.8 -6.0 Massachusetts
Nov 27 #34 LouisianaLafayette H #119 LouisianaMonroe 96% 28.2 21.5 LouisianaLafayette
Nov 27 #129 FIU V #120 SouthernMississippi 22% -11.1 -10.5 SouthernMississippi
Nov 27 #22 Tennessee H #124 Vanderbilt 98% 34.2 31.0 Tennessee
Nov 27 #126 Akron V #59 Toledo 3% -30.0 -28.5 Toledo
Nov 27 #29 Houston V #131 Connecticut 98% 35.2 32.0 Houston

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent Prj W-Lk Prj MOV Veg Ln Pk vs Veg
Nov 27 #4 Michigan H #2 OhioState 40% -3.6 -8.5 Michigan
Nov 27 #24 MichiganState H #9 PennState 45% -1.9 -1.0 PennState
Nov 26 #25 Iowa V #32 Nebraska 48% -0.7 1.5 Nebraska
Nov 27 #37 Minnesota H #7 Wisconsin 31% -7.3 -7.0 Wisconsin
Nov 27 #87 Maryland V #69 Rutgers 32% -6.6 1.5 Rutgers
Nov 27 #72 Illinois H #103 Northwestern 77% 11.0 6.5 Illinois
Nov 27 #94 Indiana V #26 Purdue 11% -18.7 -15.0 Purdue

[insert comments as appropriate]