FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 04

Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Wisconsin is on a bye this week, which is helpful because my wife will be out-of-town for work all day Saturday. It is probably bad parenting to keep your kids inside all day to watch TV instead of "getting outside" and "being active".

I think I can still catch the last half of PeeSU-Auburn, so keep it close until then Nits.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 2-0 11-1 +26.6 1 4 +10.3 5 -15.7 1 +18.3 1 4.47 55
Alabama SEC 2-0 10-2 +25.6 2 1 +13.6 2 -11.9 6 +17.3 2 5.42 48
Clemson ACC 1-1 10-2 +22.3 3 2 +7.4 19 -15.0 2 +11.3 11 2.75 74
Oklahoma B12 2-0 10-2 +21.4 4 5 +13.5 3 -8.1 13 +12.9 9 4.17 59
OhioState B10 1-1 9-3 +20.9 5 3 +14.6 1 -6.3 37 +14.5 5 8.79 8
Iowa B10 2-0 10-2 +19.5 6 7 +6.7 21 -12.4 5 +13.6 6 7.56 19
PennState B10 2-0 9-3 +19.3 7 10 +8.4 13 -10.6 7 +13.5 7 10.53 1
Auburn SEC 2-0 8-4 +18.7 8 8 +10.1 6 -9.2 8 +8.5 24 7.18 26
Oregon P12 2-0 10-2 +18.2 9 14 +8.9 8 -8.6 9 +15.5 3 5.56 44
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +16.9 10 15 +3.8 49 -13.2 3 +8.0 28 9.27 5
TexasAM SEC 2-0 9-3 +16.7 11 9 +2.6 60 -13.0 4 +14.9 4 5.46 47
Michigan B10 2-0 8-4 +16.7 12 18 +8.6 12 -8.1 14 +10.8 13 9.69 3
UCLA P12 2-0 8-4 +14.7 13 13 +8.8 9 -5.9 43 +9.6 16 8.26 13
Florida SEC 2-0 8-4 +14.4 14 21 +8.0 14 -6.1 40 +11.4 10 5.41 49
Texas B12 1-1 8-4 +14.3 15 6 +8.6 11 -5.5 48 +10.0 14 7.19 25
NorthCarolina ACC 1-1 8-4 +14.3 16 29 +7.8 16 -7.0 23 +5.8 52 5.12 52
CentralFlorida Amer 2-0 10-2 +14.1 17 22 +11.5 4 -2.7 76 +9.4 17 -1.60 108
BoiseState MWC 1-1 8-4 +14.1 18 26 +9.6 7 -4.7 58 +8.1 26 3.84 63
NotreDame Ind 2-0 8-4 +13.2 19 17 +5.0 34 -7.4 21 +13.2 8 8.40 11
LSU SEC 1-1 7-5 +13.2 20 16 +7.4 18 -5.9 45 +8.3 25 8.52 10
Cincinnati Amer 2-0 9-3 +13.0 21 12 +4.6 41 -8.1 15 +9.7 15 0.08 90
TCU B12 2-0 8-4 +12.7 22 24 +5.8 27 -6.7 28 +9.3 18 5.89 41
ArizonaState P12 2-0 8-4 +12.7 23 25 +4.4 42 -8.3 12 +7.0 40 3.23 68
Miami ACC 1-1 8-4 +12.5 24 20 +5.3 30 -6.7 29 +11.1 12 6.30 37
IowaState B12 1-1 7-5 +12.5 25 19 +4.1 48 -8.3 11 +7.9 29 7.68 18
USC P12 1-1 7-5 +12.0 26 11 +6.4 22 -5.3 51 +8.9 22 7.75 17
Indiana B10 1-1 6-6 +11.5 27 42 +4.3 45 -7.2 22 +7.6 34 10.22 2
FresnoState MWC 2-1 8-4 +11.4 28 39 +6.3 24 -5.9 44 +2.5 75 0.30 89
Utah P12 1-1 7-5 +11.4 29 23 +5.1 31 -6.4 36 +6.2 47 6.64 34
WestVirginia B12 1-1 6-6 +10.8 30 49 +5.0 33 -6.4 34 +2.8 74 6.12 38
VirginiaTech ACC 2-0 8-4 +10.8 31 40 +2.9 58 -7.6 18 +8.0 27 5.62 43
Purdue B10 2-0 7-5 +10.7 32 51 +4.8 38 -6.1 41 +5.3 56 7.53 20
AppalachianState Sun 1-1 8-4 +10.6 33 30 +2.5 61 -8.0 17 +6.7 44 -0.76 98
BYU Ind 2-0 8-4 +10.4 34 35 +3.1 56 -6.9 26 +9.1 20 3.11 71
Maryland B10 2-0 7-5 +10.4 35 65 +4.8 37 -5.6 46 +6.1 48 7.13 27
Virginia ACC 2-0 7-5 +10.4 36 48 +4.4 43 -6.2 39 +4.8 61 4.73 53
Mississippi SEC 2-0 7-5 +10.0 37 32 +8.7 10 -1.4 86 +6.2 46 6.65 33
SMU Amer 2-0 8-4 +9.9 38 44 +6.2 25 -3.6 64 +6.9 41 1.47 83
Pittsburgh ACC 2-0 8-4 +9.7 39 43 +4.7 39 -4.9 56 +6.8 42 4.23 57
NorthCarolinaState ACC 1-1 7-5 +9.7 40 27 +2.1 67 -7.6 19 +5.5 54 5.48 46
CoastalCarolina Sun 2-0 9-3 +9.7 41 46 +6.4 23 -3.1 71 +7.8 31 -3.37 126
Arkansas SEC 2-0 7-5 +9.5 42 64 +5.1 32 -4.2 61 +7.5 35 7.86 15
Toledo MAC 1-1 9-3 +9.5 43 36 +5.8 26 -4.0 63 +4.2 66 -4.84 130
Marshall CUSA 2-0 9-3 +9.3 44 28 +2.2 64 -7.0 24 +5.8 50 -3.30 125
WakeForest ACC 2-0 7-5 +9.3 45 33 +6.8 20 -2.7 77 +4.8 60 3.43 66
MississippiState SEC 2-0 7-5 +8.9 46 56 +1.9 69 -6.3 38 +9.2 19 8.33 12
Nevada MWC 2-0 8-4 +8.8 47 50 +3.2 53 -5.1 54 +8.6 23 -0.48 94
Rutgers B10 2-0 7-5 +8.7 48 68 +3.3 52 -5.4 50 +5.3 55 7.01 29
Nebraska B10 2-1 5-7 +8.5 49 71 +0.9 77 -8.0 16 +2.1 76 8.24 14
Baylor B12 2-0 7-5 +8.4 50 57 +1.7 70 -6.7 30 +5.0 59 4.44 56
KansasState B12 2-0 7-5 +8.4 51 45 +1.0 76 -7.0 25 +7.2 37 7.23 23
BostonCollege ACC 2-0 8-4 +8.3 52 41 +4.9 36 -3.4 67 +5.0 58 1.82 81
Memphis Amer 2-0 8-4 +8.1 53 55 +7.8 15 +0.2 97 +9.0 21 1.85 79
Minnesota B10 1-1 6-6 +8.0 54 37 +4.9 35 -2.9 74 +5.9 49 7.40 22
Liberty Ind 2-0 9-3 +7.9 55 69 +2.8 59 -4.8 57 +7.2 36 -2.38 118
SanDiegoState MWC 2-0 8-4 +7.8 56 73 -0.8 99 -8.3 10 +5.6 53 -1.20 103
Stanford P12 1-1 6-6 +7.8 57 75 +1.7 71 -5.6 47 +7.7 32 8.62 9
Kentucky SEC 2-0 8-4 +7.6 58 62 +1.2 75 -6.0 42 +7.2 38 1.85 80
Buffalo MAC 1-1 8-4 +7.6 59 31 +4.6 40 -3.5 66 +2.0 77 -4.07 129
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 1-1 8-4 +7.4 60 76 +0.5 85 -6.7 27 +5.2 57 -2.48 121
Tulane Amer 1-1 6-6 +7.1 61 54 +7.6 17 -0.0 96 +1.3 81 2.47 75
MichiganState B10 2-0 6-6 +7.0 62 61 +3.3 51 -3.4 68 +6.7 43 9.00 7
LouisianaLafayette Sun 1-1 8-4 +6.8 63 34 +2.9 57 -3.3 69 +7.7 33 -0.29 93
California P12 0-2 5-7 +6.7 64 63 +0.8 78 -6.5 32 +0.2 92 5.90 40
Colorado P12 1-1 5-7 +6.4 65 70 -0.1 94 -6.5 33 +3.7 71 7.20 24
Houston Amer 1-1 8-4 +6.3 66 82 +4.2 47 -2.6 78 +1.4 80 -4.04 128
Washington P12 0-2 5-7 +6.3 67 38 -1.1 101 -7.4 20 +3.0 73 6.59 35
Missouri SEC 1-1 6-6 +6.2 68 60 +4.2 46 -2.0 81 +4.0 68 4.71 54
Army Ind 2-0 8-4 +5.9 69 59 +0.3 87 -5.2 53 +5.8 51 -2.66 122
BallState MAC 1-1 7-5 +5.6 70 47 +3.1 55 -1.9 82 +7.1 39 3.11 70
OklahomaState B12 2-0 6-6 +5.6 71 67 +0.4 86 -4.5 59 +7.8 30 6.67 32
Troy Sun 1-1 7-5 +5.4 72 58 +0.3 88 -5.5 49 +0.5 87 -2.08 115
WesternMichigan MAC 1-1 7-5 +5.4 73 85 +4.3 44 -0.8 89 +4.8 62 2.80 73
OregonState P12 1-1 5-7 +5.2 74 81 +5.3 29 -0.3 93 +1.3 83 6.88 31
Wyoming MWC 2-0 8-4 +4.7 75 79 +1.3 74 -3.1 72 +4.7 63 -0.91 100
CentralMichigan MAC 1-1 6-6 +4.7 76 84 +2.1 66 -2.9 75 +0.4 88 0.99 86
WashingtonState P12 1-1 5-7 +4.6 77 66 +3.1 54 -1.8 83 +1.0 86 5.52 45
SouthCarolina SEC 2-0 6-6 +4.5 78 80 +0.1 91 -4.2 62 +4.2 67 7.04 28
UAB CUSA 1-1 7-5 +4.4 79 52 +0.7 80 -3.0 73 +6.5 45 2.17 76
TexasTech B12 2-0 6-6 +4.0 80 53 +2.2 65 -1.5 85 +4.5 65 5.37 50
AirForce MWC 2-0 7-5 +3.9 81 88 -2.9 110 -6.7 31 +3.3 72 -0.03 91
Tennessee SEC 1-1 6-6 +3.7 82 77 +0.5 82 -3.5 65 +0.4 89 3.69 64
SanJoseState MWC 1-1 7-5 +3.3 83 78 -1.3 102 -4.3 60 +3.8 69 -1.21 104
Syracuse ACC 1-1 5-7 +3.2 84 74 -2.9 108 -6.4 35 -0.7 96 5.66 42
UTSA CUSA 2-0 8-4 +2.5 85 86 -0.3 97 -2.3 79 +4.7 64 -5.67 131
Louisville ACC 1-1 5-7 +2.4 86 89 +1.4 73 -1.5 84 -1.2 99 6.05 39
UtahState MWC 2-0 8-4 +2.4 87 92 +1.9 68 -0.1 94 +3.7 70 -1.83 112
GeorgiaTech ACC 1-1 4-8 +2.3 88 97 +0.8 79 -2.1 80 -2.0 104 9.23 6
FloridaState ACC 0-2 4-8 +2.3 89 72 +3.4 50 +0.5 102 -2.3 106 6.96 30
Tulsa Amer 0-2 5-7 +2.2 90 87 -2.6 106 -5.3 52 -1.7 102 3.10 72
ArkansasState Sun 1-1 6-6 +1.7 91 90 +5.5 28 +3.6 120 +0.3 90 0.66 87
Northwestern B10 1-1 4-8 +1.3 92 93 -3.7 114 -4.9 55 +1.2 84 5.29 51
EasternMichigan MAC 1-1 7-5 +0.9 93 83 +0.1 92 -0.9 87 +0.1 93 -1.39 106
LouisianaTech CUSA 1-1 6-6 +0.7 94 91 +2.4 62 +1.9 109 +1.5 78 -1.34 105
MiamiOH MAC 0-2 6-6 +0.7 95 94 +0.2 89 -0.4 91 +1.1 85 -1.66 110
NorthernIllinois MAC 1-1 6-6 +0.1 96 95 +0.7 81 +0.4 101 -0.7 95 1.88 78
KentState MAC 1-1 6-6 -0.2 97 101 +2.4 63 +2.8 115 +1.3 82 -1.49 107
Duke ACC 1-1 4-8 -0.3 98 111 +0.2 90 +0.3 99 -1.6 101 3.84 62
WesternKentucky CUSA 1-1 5-7 -1.1 99 108 +0.5 83 +1.2 104 -3.7 113 -0.24 92
MiddleTennessee CUSA 1-1 6-6 -1.2 100 100 -0.1 93 +1.1 103 -1.2 98 -2.33 117
EastCarolina Amer 0-2 4-8 -1.2 101 102 -0.2 95 +0.4 100 -4.5 116 1.45 84
SouthAlabama Sun 2-0 7-5 -1.3 102 103 -4.8 118 -3.2 70 +1.4 79 -2.38 119
Illinois B10 1-2 3-9 -1.4 103 99 +1.4 72 +2.7 112 -1.9 103 9.38 4
FIU CUSA 1-1 5-7 -1.7 104 96 -1.4 103 -0.4 90 -5.1 118 -2.30 116
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-1 5-7 -2.8 105 117 -3.4 112 -0.8 88 -3.3 111 -1.09 101
TexasState Sun 1-1 6-6 -3.2 106 114 -3.1 111 -0.1 95 -3.2 110 -2.85 123
Arizona P12 0-2 3-9 -3.4 107 104 -1.9 104 +1.2 105 -4.5 115 7.44 21
Charlotte CUSA 2-0 6-6 -3.5 108 115 -1.0 100 +2.8 113 -0.7 94 -3.08 124
Hawaii MWC 1-2 5-8 -3.5 109 106 -0.2 96 +3.5 119 -1.0 97 -1.63 109
NorthTexas CUSA 1-1 5-7 -3.9 110 109 -0.6 98 +3.3 118 -2.4 109 -0.70 96
Ohio MAC 0-2 4-8 -4.4 111 98 -2.1 105 +1.7 107 -6.2 121 -1.90 114
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 1-1 4-8 -4.9 112 105 -5.1 119 +0.3 98 +0.2 91 2.03 77
NewMexico MWC 2-0 5-7 -5.4 113 113 -3.5 113 +2.1 110 -2.1 105 -1.18 102
GeorgiaState Sun 0-2 3-9 -6.1 114 107 +0.5 84 +7.0 126 -1.3 100 4.19 58
Kansas B12 1-1 3-9 -6.7 115 116 -4.0 115 +3.0 116 -2.3 108 7.79 16
ColoradoState MWC 0-2 2-10 -6.7 116 112 -2.9 109 +3.2 117 -8.1 126 3.43 65
Rice CUSA 0-2 4-8 -7.1 117 110 -7.1 123 -0.4 92 -6.2 122 -1.79 111
Temple Amer 1-1 4-8 -7.9 118 123 -2.7 107 +5.7 123 -2.3 107 -0.57 95
SouthFlorida Amer 0-2 3-9 -8.4 119 119 -4.4 116 +4.3 122 -4.2 114 3.42 67
OldDominion CUSA 1-1 4-8 -8.6 120 122 -5.6 121 +2.8 114 -6.7 123 -0.85 99
Navy Amer 0-2 2-10 -8.9 121 118 -7.4 125 +1.6 106 -5.2 119 6.40 36
UNLV MWC 0-2 2-10 -9.3 122 120 -6.7 122 +2.1 111 -8.1 125 3.89 61
Vanderbilt SEC 1-1 3-9 -10.0 123 124 -8.3 127 +1.8 108 -5.0 117 3.21 69
UTEP CUSA 2-1 5-7 -10.9 124 121 -7.3 124 +4.1 121 -3.5 112 -3.81 127
LouisianaMonroe Sun 0-1 3-9 -11.1 125 125 -4.6 117 +6.8 125 -5.9 120 1.20 85
Massachusetts Ind 0-2 3-9 -15.7 126 127 -5.3 120 +10.8 131 -8.6 127 -2.46 120
Akron MAC 0-2 2-10 -15.7 127 126 -7.9 126 +8.1 127 -8.0 124 1.60 82
BowlingGreen MAC 0-2 2-10 -16.5 128 130 -10.3 128 +5.9 124 -11.5 129 -1.88 113
NewMexicoState Ind 0-3 2-10 -19.9 129 131 -10.5 129 +9.0 128 -14.9 131 -0.70 97
Connecticut Ind 0-3 1-11 -20.4 130 128 -10.7 130 +9.8 129 -11.7 130 0.30 88
FCS Z_FCS 8-68 11-106 -21.2 131 129 -11.5 131 +10.2 130 -10.1 128 4.03 60

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 1-1 9-3 +20.9 5 3 +14.6 1 -6.3 37 +14.5 5 8.79 8
Iowa B10 2-0 10-2 +19.5 6 7 +6.7 21 -12.4 5 +13.6 6 7.56 19
PennState B10 2-0 9-3 +19.3 7 10 +8.4 13 -10.6 7 +13.5 7 10.53 1
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +16.9 10 15 +3.8 49 -13.2 3 +8.0 28 9.27 5
Michigan B10 2-0 8-4 +16.7 12 18 +8.6 12 -8.1 14 +10.8 13 9.69 3
Indiana B10 1-1 6-6 +11.5 27 42 +4.3 45 -7.2 22 +7.6 34 10.22 2
Purdue B10 2-0 7-5 +10.7 32 51 +4.8 38 -6.1 41 +5.3 56 7.53 20
Maryland B10 2-0 7-5 +10.4 35 65 +4.8 37 -5.6 46 +6.1 48 7.13 27
Rutgers B10 2-0 7-5 +8.7 48 68 +3.3 52 -5.4 50 +5.3 55 7.01 29
Nebraska B10 2-1 5-7 +8.5 49 71 +0.9 77 -8.0 16 +2.1 76 8.24 14
Minnesota B10 1-1 6-6 +8.0 54 37 +4.9 35 -2.9 74 +5.9 49 7.40 22
MichiganState B10 2-0 6-6 +7.0 62 61 +3.3 51 -3.4 68 +6.7 43 9.00 7
Northwestern B10 1-1 4-8 +1.3 92 93 -3.7 114 -4.9 55 +1.2 84 5.29 51
Illinois B10 1-2 3-9 -1.4 103 99 +1.4 72 +2.7 112 -1.9 103 9.38 4

Rutgers: bowl eligible? B1G, if true.

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners (limited to those with 1% or more to save on space):

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 2-0 11-1 +26.6 1 4 +10.3 5 -15.7 1 +18.3 1 0.29 1
Alabama SEC 2-0 10-2 +25.6 2 1 +13.6 2 -11.9 6 +17.3 2 0.15 2
Oklahoma B12 2-0 10-2 +21.4 4 5 +13.5 3 -8.1 13 +12.9 9 0.11 3
Oregon P12 2-0 10-2 +18.2 9 14 +8.9 8 -8.6 9 +15.5 3 0.08 4
CentralFlorida Amer 2-0 10-2 +14.1 17 22 +11.5 4 -2.7 76 +9.4 17 0.06 5
Iowa B10 2-0 10-2 +19.5 6 7 +6.7 21 -12.4 5 +13.6 6 0.06 6
CoastalCarolina Sun 2-0 9-3 +9.7 41 46 +6.4 23 -3.1 71 +7.8 31 0.03 7
Marshall CUSA 2-0 9-3 +9.3 44 28 +2.2 64 -7.0 24 +5.8 50 0.03 8
Cincinnati Amer 2-0 9-3 +13.0 21 12 +4.6 41 -8.1 15 +9.7 15 0.02 9
Liberty Ind 2-0 9-3 +7.9 55 69 +2.8 59 -4.8 57 +7.2 36 0.02 10
PennState B10 2-0 9-3 +19.3 7 10 +8.4 13 -10.6 7 +13.5 7 0.02 11
TexasAM SEC 2-0 9-3 +16.7 11 9 +2.6 60 -13.0 4 +14.9 4 0.02 12
UCLA P12 2-0 8-4 +14.7 13 13 +8.8 9 -5.9 43 +9.6 16 0.01 13
Michigan B10 2-0 8-4 +16.7 12 18 +8.6 12 -8.1 14 +10.8 13 0.01 14
BYU Ind 2-0 8-4 +10.4 34 35 +3.1 56 -6.9 26 +9.1 20 0.01 15
SanDiegoState MWC 2-0 8-4 +7.8 56 73 -0.8 99 -8.3 10 +5.6 53 0.01 16
ArizonaState P12 2-0 8-4 +12.7 23 25 +4.4 42 -8.3 12 +7.0 40 0.01 17
Nevada MWC 2-0 8-4 +8.8 47 50 +3.2 53 -5.1 54 +8.6 23 0.01 18
Memphis Amer 2-0 8-4 +8.1 53 55 +7.8 15 +0.2 97 +9.0 21 0.01 19
NotreDame Ind 2-0 8-4 +13.2 19 17 +5.0 34 -7.4 21 +13.2 8 0.01 20
UTSA CUSA 2-0 8-4 +2.5 85 86 -0.3 97 -2.3 79 +4.7 64 0.01 21

SDSU = mid-major Iowa, according to these rankings. Is the Hoke back there again? Hard to keep track.

Now the more interesting set (all eligibile teams included):

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Connecticut Ind 0-3 1-11 -20.4 130 128 -10.7 130 +9.8 129 -11.7 130 0.16 1
Navy Amer 0-2 2-10 -8.9 121 118 -7.4 125 +1.6 106 -5.2 119 0.13 2
UNLV MWC 0-2 2-10 -9.3 122 120 -6.7 122 +2.1 111 -8.1 125 0.10 3
NewMexicoState Ind 0-3 2-10 -19.9 129 131 -10.5 129 +9.0 128 -14.9 131 0.09 4
ColoradoState MWC 0-2 2-10 -6.7 116 112 -2.9 109 +3.2 117 -8.1 126 0.08 5
Akron MAC 0-2 2-10 -15.7 127 126 -7.9 126 +8.1 127 -8.0 124 0.06 6
BowlingGreen MAC 0-2 2-10 -16.5 128 130 -10.3 128 +5.9 124 -11.5 129 0.02 7
GeorgiaState Sun 0-2 3-9 -6.1 114 107 +0.5 84 +7.0 126 -1.3 100 0.02 8
Arizona P12 0-2 3-9 -3.4 107 104 -1.9 104 +1.2 105 -4.5 115 0.01 9
Massachusetts Ind 0-2 3-9 -15.7 126 127 -5.3 120 +10.8 131 -8.6 127 0.01 10
Ohio MAC 0-2 4-8 -4.4 111 98 -2.1 105 +1.7 107 -6.2 121 0.00 11
LouisianaMonroe Sun 0-1 3-9 -11.1 125 125 -4.6 117 +6.8 125 -5.9 120 0.00 12
FloridaState ACC 0-2 4-8 +2.3 89 72 +3.4 50 +0.5 102 -2.3 106 0.00 13
SouthFlorida Amer 0-2 3-9 -8.4 119 119 -4.4 116 +4.3 122 -4.2 114 0.00 14
Washington P12 0-2 5-7 +6.3 67 38 -1.1 101 -7.4 20 +3.0 73 0.00 15
Tulsa Amer 0-2 5-7 +2.2 90 87 -2.6 106 -5.3 52 -1.7 102 0.00 16
Rice CUSA 0-2 4-8 -7.1 117 110 -7.1 123 -0.4 92 -6.2 122 0.00 17
EastCarolina Amer 0-2 4-8 -1.2 101 102 -0.2 95 +0.4 100 -4.5 116 0.00 18
California P12 0-2 5-7 +6.7 64 63 +0.8 78 -6.5 32 +0.2 92 0.00 19
MiamiOH MAC 0-2 6-6 +0.7 95 94 +0.2 89 -0.4 91 +1.1 85 0.00 20

Okay, so is the slowness here due to my computer getting older, or what?

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Still limiting to 1% odds or greater.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 2-0 11-1 +26.6 1 4 +10.3 5 -15.7 1 +18.3 1 0.70 1
Alabama SEC 2-0 10-2 +25.6 2 1 +13.6 2 -11.9 6 +17.3 2 0.48 2
Oklahoma B12 2-0 10-2 +21.4 4 5 +13.5 3 -8.1 13 +12.9 9 0.39 3
Oregon P12 2-0 10-2 +18.2 9 14 +8.9 8 -8.6 9 +15.5 3 0.32 4
Iowa B10 2-0 10-2 +19.5 6 7 +6.7 21 -12.4 5 +13.6 6 0.28 6
Clemson ACC 1-1 10-2 +22.3 3 2 +7.4 19 -15.0 2 +11.3 11 0.22 7
Liberty Ind 2-0 9-3 +7.9 55 69 +2.8 59 -4.8 57 +7.2 36 0.11 11
PennState B10 2-0 9-3 +19.3 7 10 +8.4 13 -10.6 7 +13.5 7 0.11 12
TexasAM SEC 2-0 9-3 +16.7 11 9 +2.6 60 -13.0 4 +14.9 4 0.11 13
UCLA P12 2-0 8-4 +14.7 13 13 +8.8 9 -5.9 43 +9.6 16 0.07 14
OhioState B10 1-1 9-3 +20.9 5 3 +14.6 1 -6.3 37 +14.5 5 0.06 16
Michigan B10 2-0 8-4 +16.7 12 18 +8.6 12 -8.1 14 +10.8 13 0.06 17
BYU Ind 2-0 8-4 +10.4 34 35 +3.1 56 -6.9 26 +9.1 20 0.06 18
ArizonaState P12 2-0 8-4 +12.7 23 25 +4.4 42 -8.3 12 +7.0 40 0.05 21
Florida SEC 2-0 8-4 +14.4 14 21 +8.0 14 -6.1 40 +11.4 10 0.05 22
Army Ind 2-0 8-4 +5.9 69 59 +0.3 87 -5.2 53 +5.8 51 0.05 25
NotreDame Ind 2-0 8-4 +13.2 19 17 +5.0 34 -7.4 21 +13.2 8 0.04 26
Auburn SEC 2-0 8-4 +18.7 8 8 +10.1 6 -9.2 8 +8.5 24 0.04 27
VirginiaTech ACC 2-0 8-4 +10.8 31 40 +2.9 58 -7.6 18 +8.0 27 0.04 29
TCU B12 2-0 8-4 +12.7 22 24 +5.8 27 -6.7 28 +9.3 18 0.03 32
Pittsburgh ACC 2-0 8-4 +9.7 39 43 +4.7 39 -4.9 56 +6.8 42 0.02 36
NorthCarolina ACC 1-1 8-4 +14.3 16 29 +7.8 16 -7.0 23 +5.8 52 0.02 37
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +16.9 10 15 +3.8 49 -13.2 3 +8.0 28 0.02 38
BostonCollege ACC 2-0 8-4 +8.3 52 41 +4.9 36 -3.4 67 +5.0 58 0.02 41
Virginia ACC 2-0 7-5 +10.4 36 48 +4.4 43 -6.2 39 +4.8 61 0.02 42
Kentucky SEC 2-0 8-4 +7.6 58 62 +1.2 75 -6.0 42 +7.2 38 0.02 43
Miami ACC 1-1 8-4 +12.5 24 20 +5.3 30 -6.7 29 +11.1 12 0.01 45
WakeForest ACC 2-0 7-5 +9.3 45 33 +6.8 20 -2.7 77 +4.8 60 0.01 48
Texas B12 1-1 8-4 +14.3 15 6 +8.6 11 -5.5 48 +10.0 14 0.01 49
KansasState B12 2-0 7-5 +8.4 51 45 +1.0 76 -7.0 25 +7.2 37 0.01 50
Purdue B10 2-0 7-5 +10.7 32 51 +4.8 38 -6.1 41 +5.3 56 0.01 51
Baylor B12 2-0 7-5 +8.4 50 57 +1.7 70 -6.7 30 +5.0 59 0.01 52
Mississippi SEC 2-0 7-5 +10.0 37 32 +8.7 10 -1.4 86 +6.2 46 0.01 53
Maryland B10 2-0 7-5 +10.4 35 65 +4.8 37 -5.6 46 +6.1 48 0.01 55

It is painfull editing this post. I mean, there is a lot of text, but really not any more than what I've had the last few years. But the lag for any typiing is awful.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
NotreDame Ind 2-0 8-4 +13.2 19 17 +5.0 34 -7.4 21 +13.2 8 0.75 1
TexasAM SEC 2-0 9-3 +16.7 11 9 +2.6 60 -13.0 4 +14.9 4 0.66 3
Memphis Amer 2-0 8-4 +8.1 53 55 +7.8 15 +0.2 97 +9.0 21 0.61 5
Oregon P12 2-0 10-2 +18.2 9 14 +8.9 8 -8.6 9 +15.5 3 0.60 7
MississippiState SEC 2-0 7-5 +8.9 46 56 +1.9 69 -6.3 38 +9.2 19 0.57 11
Miami ACC 1-1 8-4 +12.5 24 20 +5.3 30 -6.7 29 +11.1 12 0.48 15
Nevada MWC 2-0 8-4 +8.8 47 50 +3.2 53 -5.1 54 +8.6 23 0.47 16
BYU Ind 2-0 8-4 +10.4 34 35 +3.1 56 -6.9 26 +9.1 20 0.38 20
Florida SEC 2-0 8-4 +14.4 14 21 +8.0 14 -6.1 40 +11.4 10 0.33 28
Cincinnati Amer 2-0 9-3 +13.0 21 12 +4.6 41 -8.1 15 +9.7 15 0.19 46

Or is this due to general SB Nation/Vox techincal issues? They've seemed to have a lot of those recently.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 1-1 3-9 -10.0 123 124 -8.3 127 +1.8 108 -5.0 117 3.21 69
Kansas B12 1-1 3-9 -6.7 115 116 -4.0 115 +3.0 116 -2.3 108 7.79 16
Arizona P12 0-2 3-9 -3.4 107 104 -1.9 104 +1.2 105 -4.5 115 7.44 21
Illinois B10 1-2 3-9 -1.4 103 99 +1.4 72 +2.7 112 -1.9 103 9.38 4
Duke ACC 1-1 4-8 -0.3 98 111 +0.2 90 +0.3 99 -1.6 101 3.84 62
Northwestern B10 1-1 4-8 +1.3 92 93 -3.7 114 -4.9 55 +1.2 84 5.29 51
FloridaState ACC 0-2 4-8 +2.3 89 72 +3.4 50 +0.5 102 -2.3 106 6.96 30
GeorgiaTech ACC 1-1 4-8 +2.3 88 97 +0.8 79 -2.1 80 -2.0 104 9.23 6
Louisville ACC 1-1 5-7 +2.4 86 89 +1.4 73 -1.5 84 -1.2 99 6.05 39
Syracuse ACC 1-1 5-7 +3.2 84 74 -2.9 108 -6.4 35 -0.7 96 5.66 42

They also got rid of custom tags for posts. That made me sad. Change is bad, keep everything the way it used to be when I liked it better! /kicks sand

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #79 UAB W 56 7
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #9 Oregon V #5 OhioState W 35 28
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #7 PennState H #70 BallState W 44 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #16 NorthCarolina H #114 GeorgiaState W 59 17
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #42 Arkansas H #15 Texas W 40 21

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #79 UAB W 56 7
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #2 Alabama N #24 Miami W 44 13
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #1 Georgia N #3 Clemson W 10 3
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #6 Iowa H #27 Indiana W 34 6
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #44 Marshall V #121 Navy W 49 7
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #12 Michigan H #73 WesternMichigan W 47 14
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #48 Rutgers H #118 Temple W 61 14
2 Thu 2021-09-02 #40 NorthCarolinaState H #119 SouthFlorida W 45 0
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #9 Oregon V #5 OhioState W 35 28
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #7 PennState H #70 BallState W 44 13

Man, Navy: what happened? Did Army literally steal your power?

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 280.7 over 95 games, which would rank #23 (out of 49 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 18 #7 PennState H #8 Auburn 58% 3.0
Sep 18 #14 Florida H #2 Alabama 28% -8.6
Sep 18 #34 BYU H #23 ArizonaState 51% 0.3
Sep 18 #21 Cincinnati V #27 Indiana 47% -1.0
Sep 18 #56 SanDiegoState H #29 Utah 47% -1.1
Sep 18 #31 VirginiaTech V #30 WestVirginia 43% -2.5
Sep 18 #59 Buffalo H #41 CoastalCarolina 51% 0.4
Sep 18 #28 FresnoState V #13 UCLA 35% -5.7
Sep 18 #32 Purdue V #19 NotreDame 36% -5.0
Sep 18 #53 Memphis H #46 MississippiState 55% 1.7
Sep 18 #51 KansasState H #47 Nevada 56% 2.1
Sep 18 #54 Minnesota V #65 Colorado 48% -0.9
Sep 18 #16 NorthCarolina H #36 Virginia 67% 6.3
Sep 18 #70 BallState V #75 Wyoming 46% -1.5
Sep 18 #77 WashingtonState H #26 USC 37% -4.8
Sep 18 #61 Tulane V #37 Mississippi 35% -5.4
Sep 18 #24 Miami H #62 MichiganState 71% 7.9
Sep 18 #39 Pittsburgh H #73 WesternMichigan 68% 6.8
Sep 18 #49 Nebraska V #4 Oklahoma 16% -15.1
Sep 18 #98 Duke H #92 Northwestern 52% 0.9
Sep 18 #81 AirForce H #87 UtahState 61% 4.0
Sep 17 #86 Louisville H #17 CentralFlorida 27% -9.0
Sep 18 #71 OklahomaState V #18 BoiseState 23% -10.8
Sep 18 #38 SMU V #94 LouisianaTech 68% 6.5
Sep 18 #76 CentralMichigan V #20 LSU 23% -10.9
Sep 18 #67 Washington H #91 ArkansasState 69% 7.0
Sep 18 #89 FloridaState V #45 WakeForest 26% -9.4
Sep 18 #105 SouthernMississippi H #72 Troy 35% -5.6
Sep 19 #109 Hawaii H #83 SanJoseState 38% -4.3
Sep 17 #35 Maryland V #103 Illinois 74% 9.2
Sep 18 #108 Charlotte V #114 GeorgiaState 50% 0.1
Sep 18 #100 MiddleTennessee V #85 UTSA 34% -6.0
Sep 18 #110 NorthTexas H #79 UAB 35% -5.7
Sep 18 #80 TexasTech H #104 FIU 71% 8.0
Sep 18 #101 EastCarolina V #44 Marshall 19% -12.8
Sep 18 #1 Georgia H #78 SouthCarolina 94% 24.2
Sep 18 #90 Tulsa V #5 OhioState 9% -20.8
Sep 18 #3 Clemson H #88 GeorgiaTech 92% 22.2
Sep 18 #12 Michigan H #96 NorthernIllinois 89% 18.8
Sep 18 #50 Baylor V #115 Kansas 80% 12.5
Sep 16 #111 Ohio V #63 LouisianaLafayette 18% -13.5
Sep 18 #6 Iowa H #97 KentState 92% 21.9
Sep 18 #52 BostonCollege V #118 Temple 82% 13.5
Sep 18 #42 Arkansas H #112 GeorgiaSouthern 87% 16.7
Sep 18 #57 Stanford V #123 Vanderbilt 84% 15.1
Sep 18 #43 Toledo H #116 ColoradoState 89% 18.4
Sep 18 #25 IowaState V #122 UNLV 89% 19.0
Sep 18 #113 NewMexico V #11 TexasAM 6% -24.2
Sep 18 #120 OldDominion V #55 Liberty 11% -18.8
Sep 18 #15 Texas H #117 Rice 93% 23.6
Sep 18 #126 Massachusetts H #93 EasternMichigan 17% -13.9
Sep 18 #74 OregonState H Idaho 89% 18.9
Sep 18 #40 NorthCarolinaState H Furman 93% 22.5
Sep 18 #127 Akron H Bryant 71% 7.9
Sep 18 #48 Rutgers H Delaware 95% 25.6
Sep 18 #129 NewMexicoState H South Carolina State 73% 8.7
Sep 18 #58 Kentucky H Chattanooga 96% 27.5
Sep 18 #84 Syracuse H Albany 95% 25.6
Sep 18 #107 Arizona H NorthernArizona 92% 22.2
Sep 18 #130 Connecticut V #69 Army 4% -28.3
Sep 18 #64 California H Sacramento State 97% 32.6
Sep 18 #128 BowlingGreen H Murray State 89% 18.6
Sep 18 #102 SouthAlabama H AlcornState 97% 29.9
Sep 18 #66 Houston H GramblingState 98% 35.2
Sep 18 #68 Missouri H Southeast Missouri State 98% 35.3
Sep 18 #95 MiamiOH H Long Island 98% 32.8
Sep 18 #9 Oregon H Stony Brook 99% 46.8
Sep 18 #60 FloridaAtlantic H Fordham 99% 40.8
Sep 18 #33 AppalachianState H Elon 99% 43.8
Sep 18 #82 Tennessee H Tennessee Tech 99% 40.2
Sep 18 #125 LouisianaMonroe H JacksonState 97% 30.9
Sep 18 #119 SouthFlorida H FloridaAM 98% 32.7
Sep 18 #106 TexasState H Incarnate Word 99% 42.8

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 18 #7 PennState H #8 Auburn 58% 3.0
Sep 18 #21 Cincinnati V #27 Indiana 47% -1.0
Sep 18 #32 Purdue V #19 NotreDame 36% -5.0
Sep 18 #54 Minnesota V #65 Colorado 48% -0.9
Sep 18 #24 Miami H #62 MichiganState 71% 7.9
Sep 18 #49 Nebraska V #4 Oklahoma 16% -15.1
Sep 18 #98 Duke H #92 Northwestern 52% 0.9
Sep 17 #35 Maryland V #103 Illinois 74% 9.2
Sep 18 #90 Tulsa V #5 OhioState 9% -20.8
Sep 18 #12 Michigan H #96 NorthernIllinois 89% 18.8
Sep 18 #6 Iowa H #97 KentState 92% 21.9
Sep 18 #48 Rutgers H Delaware 95% 25.6

Absolutely not high quality, but hey: look at that Charlotte-GSU game. Hopefully I'm not way off on that recommendation.