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The wife got a last-minute invite to attend the Wisc-ND game on Saturday, so guess who gets to watch two kids by himself this weekend? Gonna be lit, y'all.
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 3-0 | 11-1 | +28.1 | 1 | 1 | +11.7 | 5 | -15.8 | 2 | +19.5 | 1 | 4.72 | 55 |
| Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | 10-2 | +23.9 | 2 | 2 | +12.5 | 2 | -10.9 | 7 | +18.6 | 2 | 5.73 | 46 |
| Michigan | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +22.6 | 3 | 12 | +12.4 | 3 | -10.6 | 8 | +12.7 | 10 | 10.41 | 3 |
| OhioState | B10 | 2-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 4 | 5 | +15.1 | 1 | -5.9 | 41 | +14.5 | 6 | 9.97 | 5 |
| Clemson | ACC | 2-1 | 9-3 | +20.6 | 5 | 3 | +4.0 | 46 | -16.4 | 1 | +11.0 | 13 | 3.39 | 65 |
| Iowa | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.5 | 6 | 6 | +5.5 | 33 | -14.4 | 3 | +14.4 | 7 | 8.24 | 18 |
| PennState | B10 | 3-0 | 9-3 | +20.5 | 7 | 7 | +8.1 | 16 | -11.8 | 6 | +15.5 | 3 | 11.05 | 2 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.0 | 8 | 4 | +11.7 | 6 | -8.4 | 16 | +13.0 | 9 | 4.99 | 52 |
| Texas | B12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +18.5 | 9 | 15 | +11.3 | 8 | -7.7 | 21 | +10.0 | 18 | 7.88 | 24 |
| Auburn | SEC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +18.4 | 10 | 8 | +9.9 | 10 | -9.3 | 12 | +7.0 | 41 | 8.18 | 19 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +17.3 | 11 | 11 | +2.4 | 63 | -13.8 | 4 | +14.6 | 5 | 5.45 | 48 |
| Oregon | P12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +17.2 | 12 | 9 | +8.4 | 14 | -8.2 | 18 | +14.8 | 4 | 5.41 | 49 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 1-1 | 8-4 | +17.1 | 13 | 10 | +3.9 | 48 | -13.2 | 5 | +8.5 | 26 | 10.40 | 4 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 2-1 | 9-3 | +16.3 | 14 | 16 | +11.9 | 4 | -5.1 | 51 | +7.5 | 37 | 4.84 | 54 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 3-0 | 10-2 | +15.6 | 15 | 21 | +7.0 | 20 | -8.2 | 17 | +12.0 | 11 | -0.88 | 94 |
| USC | P12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 16 | 26 | +8.2 | 15 | -6.7 | 30 | +10.7 | 14 | 6.91 | 32 |
| Florida | SEC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 17 | 14 | +8.5 | 13 | -6.5 | 32 | +10.0 | 19 | 4.69 | 56 |
| IowaState | B12 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +15.0 | 18 | 25 | +5.6 | 31 | -9.5 | 11 | +8.1 | 35 | 8.24 | 17 |
| LSU | SEC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +14.6 | 19 | 20 | +8.7 | 12 | -6.2 | 35 | +8.1 | 31 | 8.25 | 16 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +14.5 | 20 | 37 | +11.6 | 7 | -3.2 | 73 | +8.2 | 29 | 7.01 | 30 |
| UCLA | P12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +13.8 | 21 | 13 | +9.8 | 11 | -4.6 | 56 | +6.0 | 48 | 8.18 | 20 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 3-0 | 8-4 | +13.6 | 22 | 19 | +5.2 | 37 | -7.5 | 24 | +13.8 | 8 | 8.51 | 13 |
| FresnoState | MWC | 3-1 | 9-3 | +13.4 | 23 | 28 | +8.0 | 17 | -5.8 | 42 | +5.9 | 49 | -0.66 | 91 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 3-0 | 7-5 | +12.3 | 24 | 42 | +6.7 | 22 | -5.4 | 47 | +9.2 | 23 | 8.00 | 21 |
| TCU | B12 | 2-0 | 7-5 | +12.2 | 25 | 22 | +5.2 | 36 | -6.8 | 29 | +9.0 | 24 | 6.65 | 34 |
| BoiseState | MWC | 1-2 | 7-5 | +12.1 | 26 | 18 | +7.6 | 19 | -5.0 | 53 | +4.5 | 64 | 4.03 | 59 |
| WestVirginia | B12 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 27 | 30 | +5.6 | 30 | -6.4 | 33 | +5.5 | 55 | 6.81 | 33 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 28 | 54 | +5.6 | 32 | -6.0 | 37 | +8.1 | 32 | 6.95 | 31 |
| CentralFlorida | Amer | 2-1 | 9-3 | +11.4 | 29 | 17 | +11.2 | 9 | -0.7 | 87 | +5.4 | 58 | -2.08 | 108 |
| KansasState | B12 | 3-0 | 8-4 | +11.4 | 30 | 51 | +2.3 | 67 | -8.4 | 15 | +10.2 | 17 | 7.89 | 22 |
| BYU | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 31 | 34 | +3.0 | 56 | -7.6 | 22 | +10.5 | 15 | 2.07 | 76 |
| Washington | P12 | 1-2 | 6-6 | +11.0 | 32 | 67 | +0.7 | 81 | -10.6 | 9 | +3.9 | 68 | 5.79 | 44 |
| Baylor | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 33 | 50 | +3.0 | 57 | -7.8 | 20 | +6.3 | 46 | 4.96 | 53 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 34 | 62 | +5.2 | 35 | -5.1 | 50 | +9.8 | 20 | 9.20 | 8 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +10.8 | 35 | 31 | +2.1 | 68 | -8.7 | 13 | +5.8 | 52 | 5.76 | 45 |
| NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 36 | 40 | +2.4 | 64 | -8.5 | 14 | +4.5 | 65 | 5.26 | 50 |
| Maryland | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 37 | 35 | +3.1 | 53 | -7.1 | 27 | +8.4 | 27 | 8.48 | 14 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | +6.2 | 27 | -4.6 | 57 | +5.8 | 51 | 3.84 | 60 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.4 | 39 | 48 | +5.0 | 40 | -5.5 | 45 | +5.5 | 54 | 7.88 | 23 |
| Utah | P12 | 1-2 | 6-6 | +10.3 | 40 | 29 | +5.1 | 39 | -5.7 | 43 | +3.7 | 69 | 6.20 | 39 |
| Purdue | B10 | 2-1 | 6-6 | +10.1 | 41 | 32 | +3.3 | 52 | -7.0 | 28 | +4.8 | 62 | 8.27 | 15 |
| ArizonaState | P12 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +10.0 | 42 | 23 | +2.8 | 61 | -7.5 | 23 | +4.7 | 63 | 3.01 | 69 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +9.9 | 43 | 52 | +3.8 | 49 | -6.0 | 39 | +6.6 | 44 | 2.11 | 75 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 3-0 | 10-2 | +9.9 | 44 | 41 | +6.1 | 28 | -3.3 | 71 | +9.4 | 22 | -5.10 | 129 |
| Liberty | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +9.6 | 45 | 55 | +4.1 | 45 | -5.1 | 49 | +8.1 | 33 | -1.97 | 106 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 2-2 | 5-7 | +9.5 | 46 | 49 | +0.5 | 84 | -9.8 | 10 | +0.3 | 86 | 9.31 | 7 |
| Indiana | B10 | 1-2 | 5-7 | +9.4 | 47 | 27 | +4.4 | 44 | -5.2 | 48 | +5.0 | 59 | 11.81 | 1 |
| AppalachianState | Sun | 2-1 | 8-4 | +9.3 | 48 | 33 | +1.8 | 69 | -7.4 | 26 | +5.7 | 53 | -1.85 | 104 |
| SMU | Amer | 3-0 | 8-4 | +9.2 | 49 | 38 | +6.4 | 25 | -2.5 | 79 | +8.5 | 25 | 0.56 | 83 |
| Stanford | P12 | 2-1 | 6-6 | +9.1 | 50 | 57 | +3.4 | 51 | -5.1 | 52 | +9.5 | 21 | 8.86 | 10 |
| LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 2-1 | 8-4 | +9.0 | 51 | 63 | +4.5 | 43 | -4.2 | 64 | +7.2 | 40 | -1.47 | 99 |
| Virginia | ACC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +8.9 | 52 | 36 | +6.5 | 23 | -3.0 | 77 | +2.6 | 72 | 5.10 | 51 |
| MississippiState | SEC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +8.8 | 53 | 46 | +1.8 | 70 | -6.7 | 31 | +7.2 | 39 | 8.65 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +8.8 | 54 | 39 | +6.2 | 26 | -2.9 | 78 | +3.9 | 67 | 4.50 | 58 |
| OregonState | P12 | 2-1 | 6-6 | +8.7 | 55 | 74 | +6.0 | 29 | -3.2 | 74 | +2.8 | 71 | 6.26 | 38 |
| Houston | Amer | 2-1 | 9-3 | +8.3 | 56 | 66 | +4.6 | 42 | -4.3 | 61 | +1.4 | 77 | -5.00 | 128 |
| Miami | ACC | 1-2 | 6-6 | +8.1 | 57 | 24 | +3.1 | 54 | -4.5 | 58 | +8.1 | 30 | 6.43 | 36 |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +8.0 | 58 | 56 | -0.7 | 95 | -8.1 | 19 | +7.9 | 36 | -2.45 | 112 |
| Memphis | Amer | 3-0 | 9-3 | +7.9 | 59 | 53 | +7.9 | 18 | +0.9 | 100 | +11.2 | 12 | 1.12 | 80 |
| UAB | CUSA | 2-1 | 8-4 | +7.8 | 60 | 79 | +1.7 | 71 | -5.5 | 46 | +8.2 | 28 | 0.95 | 81 |
| WesternMichigan | MAC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +7.8 | 61 | 73 | +6.7 | 21 | -0.7 | 88 | +8.1 | 34 | 1.96 | 77 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +7.5 | 62 | 75 | +2.9 | 59 | -4.2 | 63 | +7.3 | 38 | -1.61 | 101 |
| TexasTech | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +6.9 | 63 | 80 | +4.9 | 41 | -1.9 | 82 | +5.4 | 57 | 5.94 | 43 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 1-2 | 8-4 | +6.8 | 64 | 59 | +3.9 | 47 | -3.7 | 67 | -0.8 | 91 | -4.79 | 126 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 2-1 | 8-4 | +6.7 | 65 | 44 | +3.1 | 55 | -4.1 | 65 | +1.6 | 76 | -4.18 | 124 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +6.5 | 66 | 71 | -0.7 | 94 | -6.1 | 36 | +10.3 | 16 | 7.39 | 27 |
| Troy | Sun | 2-1 | 8-4 | +6.5 | 67 | 72 | -0.7 | 97 | -7.4 | 25 | +2.4 | 73 | -2.91 | 115 |
| Army | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +6.4 | 68 | 69 | +2.6 | 62 | -3.4 | 70 | +6.5 | 45 | -3.04 | 117 |
| Nevada | MWC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +6.1 | 69 | 47 | +1.7 | 72 | -3.9 | 66 | +6.3 | 47 | -0.74 | 93 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +5.9 | 70 | 84 | +0.8 | 80 | -5.6 | 44 | +0.5 | 84 | 5.67 | 47 |
| FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 2-1 | 8-4 | +5.5 | 71 | 60 | -0.6 | 93 | -6.0 | 40 | +4.1 | 66 | -3.33 | 122 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +5.2 | 72 | 82 | +1.4 | 76 | -4.3 | 60 | +0.0 | 87 | 3.11 | 68 |
| Missouri | SEC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +5.2 | 73 | 68 | +5.2 | 38 | -0.0 | 91 | +3.4 | 70 | 4.54 | 57 |
| Louisville | ACC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +5.1 | 74 | 86 | +2.9 | 60 | -2.4 | 80 | +2.2 | 74 | 6.13 | 40 |
| California | P12 | 1-2 | 5-7 | +4.9 | 75 | 64 | +2.4 | 65 | -3.2 | 75 | -0.7 | 90 | 5.95 | 42 |
| SouthCarolina | SEC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +4.8 | 76 | 78 | +0.0 | 89 | -4.5 | 59 | +4.9 | 61 | 7.10 | 29 |
| Toledo | MAC | 1-2 | 7-5 | +4.7 | 77 | 43 | +1.7 | 73 | -3.6 | 69 | -0.5 | 89 | -5.53 | 130 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 3-0 | 7-5 | +4.2 | 78 | 58 | +0.4 | 85 | -3.0 | 76 | +6.8 | 42 | 2.28 | 74 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 3-0 | 9-3 | +3.8 | 79 | 85 | -0.4 | 92 | -3.6 | 68 | +5.8 | 50 | -6.67 | 131 |
| GeorgiaTech | ACC | 1-2 | 4-8 | +3.7 | 80 | 88 | -0.3 | 91 | -4.8 | 55 | -3.0 | 103 | 8.80 | 11 |
| UtahState | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +3.5 | 81 | 87 | +5.4 | 34 | +2.6 | 109 | +6.6 | 43 | -2.49 | 113 |
| SanJoseState | MWC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +3.3 | 82 | 83 | -3.3 | 103 | -6.0 | 38 | +5.5 | 56 | -0.71 | 92 |
| Tulane | Amer | 1-2 | 5-7 | +2.8 | 83 | 61 | +6.5 | 24 | +3.2 | 113 | -0.2 | 88 | 2.98 | 70 |
| AirForce | MWC | 2-1 | 6-6 | +2.4 | 84 | 81 | -0.7 | 96 | -3.3 | 72 | +0.8 | 80 | -0.46 | 89 |
| Colorado | P12 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +2.3 | 85 | 65 | -3.9 | 105 | -6.3 | 34 | +0.8 | 81 | 7.67 | 25 |
| CentralMichigan | MAC | 1-2 | 6-6 | +2.3 | 86 | 76 | +1.5 | 75 | -1.3 | 84 | -1.3 | 96 | -0.59 | 90 |
| Tulsa | Amer | 0-3 | 5-7 | +1.8 | 87 | 90 | -2.5 | 101 | -4.8 | 54 | -2.2 | 102 | 2.34 | 73 |
| BallState | MAC | 1-2 | 6-6 | +1.2 | 88 | 70 | +1.0 | 79 | +0.4 | 93 | +4.9 | 60 | 2.74 | 71 |
| EastCarolina | Amer | 1-2 | 6-6 | +1.1 | 89 | 101 | +2.3 | 66 | +0.9 | 101 | -1.1 | 94 | 0.58 | 82 |
| MiamiOH | MAC | 1-2 | 6-6 | +0.9 | 90 | 95 | -0.1 | 90 | -0.8 | 85 | +1.4 | 78 | -2.29 | 110 |
| WashingtonState | P12 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +0.8 | 91 | 77 | +0.5 | 83 | -0.5 | 89 | -0.9 | 92 | 6.01 | 41 |
| LouisianaTech | CUSA | 1-2 | 6-6 | +0.7 | 92 | 94 | +3.7 | 50 | +2.8 | 111 | -1.2 | 95 | -2.01 | 107 |
| Duke | ACC | 2-1 | 5-7 | +0.5 | 93 | 98 | +1.3 | 77 | +0.8 | 97 | +0.6 | 82 | 3.41 | 64 |
| EasternMichigan | MAC | 2-1 | 7-5 | +0.5 | 94 | 93 | +0.1 | 88 | -0.2 | 90 | +1.4 | 79 | -3.15 | 118 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 0-3 | 3-9 | +0.3 | 95 | 89 | +1.5 | 74 | +0.6 | 94 | -4.3 | 111 | 7.49 | 26 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +0.1 | 96 | 92 | -4.0 | 106 | -4.3 | 62 | -1.4 | 99 | 6.46 | 35 |
| KentState | MAC | 1-2 | 6-6 | -0.7 | 97 | 97 | +1.1 | 78 | +1.9 | 104 | +0.5 | 85 | -1.92 | 105 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-3 | 3-9 | -1.0 | 98 | 103 | +0.3 | 86 | +0.8 | 96 | -4.1 | 110 | 9.85 | 6 |
| WesternKentucky | CUSA | 1-1 | 6-6 | -1.0 | 99 | 99 | +0.3 | 87 | +0.8 | 98 | -3.7 | 106 | -1.33 | 97 |
| MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 1-2 | 6-6 | -2.4 | 100 | 100 | -1.5 | 98 | +0.7 | 95 | -3.1 | 104 | -3.33 | 121 |
| SouthAlabama | Sun | 3-0 | 7-5 | -2.4 | 101 | 102 | -5.1 | 113 | -2.1 | 81 | +1.9 | 75 | -3.32 | 120 |
| NorthernIllinois | MAC | 1-2 | 5-7 | -3.0 | 102 | 96 | +0.6 | 82 | +3.8 | 115 | -0.9 | 93 | 1.81 | 78 |
| ArkansasState | Sun | 1-2 | 5-7 | -3.3 | 103 | 91 | +3.0 | 58 | +6.5 | 126 | -1.3 | 97 | 0.10 | 87 |
| ColoradoState | MWC | 1-2 | 4-8 | -3.4 | 104 | 116 | -3.6 | 104 | -0.7 | 86 | -5.3 | 115 | 2.70 | 72 |
| Hawaii | MWC | 1-3 | 5-8 | -4.6 | 105 | 109 | -1.9 | 99 | +2.5 | 108 | -4.3 | 112 | -1.39 | 98 |
| SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 1-2 | 5-7 | -4.7 | 106 | 105 | -5.5 | 115 | -1.3 | 83 | -5.8 | 117 | -2.13 | 109 |
| Charlotte | CUSA | 2-1 | 6-6 | -4.9 | 107 | 108 | -4.2 | 109 | +0.8 | 99 | -2.1 | 101 | -4.22 | 125 |
| GeorgiaState | Sun | 1-2 | 4-8 | -5.2 | 108 | 114 | -2.1 | 100 | +3.8 | 116 | +0.6 | 83 | 3.12 | 67 |
| Arizona | P12 | 0-3 | 2-10 | -5.4 | 109 | 107 | -4.7 | 111 | +0.1 | 92 | -6.8 | 120 | 7.26 | 28 |
| FIU | CUSA | 1-2 | 5-7 | -6.0 | 110 | 104 | -2.7 | 102 | +2.8 | 110 | -7.1 | 123 | -4.06 | 123 |
| NewMexico | MWC | 2-1 | 5-7 | -7.0 | 111 | 113 | -5.6 | 117 | +1.9 | 103 | -1.5 | 100 | -1.10 | 95 |
| TexasState | Sun | 1-2 | 4-8 | -7.8 | 112 | 106 | -5.1 | 114 | +2.3 | 106 | -7.0 | 122 | -3.18 | 119 |
| NorthTexas | CUSA | 1-2 | 4-8 | -8.0 | 113 | 110 | -4.0 | 107 | +4.2 | 119 | -3.9 | 109 | -1.48 | 100 |
| Ohio | MAC | 0-3 | 3-9 | -8.1 | 114 | 111 | -4.1 | 108 | +3.6 | 114 | -7.7 | 125 | -2.33 | 111 |
| GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 1-2 | 3-9 | -8.1 | 115 | 112 | -6.6 | 120 | +2.1 | 105 | -1.3 | 98 | 1.50 | 79 |
| Temple | Amer | 1-2 | 4-8 | -9.0 | 116 | 118 | -4.8 | 112 | +4.6 | 122 | -3.5 | 105 | -0.21 | 88 |
| Navy | Amer | 0-2 | 2-10 | -9.5 | 117 | 121 | -8.2 | 124 | +1.1 | 102 | -6.2 | 118 | 6.28 | 37 |
| OldDominion | CUSA | 1-2 | 4-8 | -9.7 | 118 | 120 | -5.5 | 116 | +4.0 | 117 | -6.8 | 121 | -1.68 | 103 |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-2 | 2-10 | -10.1 | 119 | 115 | -6.0 | 118 | +4.5 | 121 | -3.7 | 108 | 9.09 | 9 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 1-2 | 3-9 | -10.6 | 120 | 123 | -7.4 | 122 | +3.2 | 112 | -5.7 | 116 | 3.77 | 61 |
| SouthFlorida | Amer | 1-2 | 2-10 | -11.1 | 121 | 119 | -6.4 | 119 | +5.1 | 124 | -4.3 | 113 | 3.29 | 66 |
| Rice | CUSA | 0-3 | 3-9 | -11.3 | 122 | 117 | -8.9 | 126 | +2.4 | 107 | -6.6 | 119 | -1.27 | 96 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 2-1 | 5-7 | -11.3 | 123 | 124 | -7.5 | 123 | +4.3 | 120 | -3.7 | 107 | -4.92 | 127 |
| UNLV | MWC | 0-3 | 1-11 | -13.4 | 124 | 122 | -8.9 | 125 | +4.2 | 118 | -9.6 | 126 | 3.62 | 63 |
| LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 1-1 | 3-9 | -14.3 | 125 | 125 | -9.1 | 127 | +5.7 | 125 | -4.9 | 114 | 0.52 | 84 |
| Akron | MAC | 1-2 | 3-9 | -14.9 | 126 | 127 | -7.4 | 121 | +7.9 | 127 | -7.2 | 124 | 0.25 | 86 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 0-3 | 3-9 | -16.0 | 127 | 126 | -4.6 | 110 | +11.5 | 130 | -10.6 | 128 | -3.00 | 116 |
| BowlingGreen | MAC | 1-2 | 3-9 | -16.9 | 128 | 128 | -11.9 | 131 | +4.8 | 123 | -10.1 | 127 | -2.54 | 114 |
| NewMexicoState | Ind | 1-3 | 2-10 | -20.8 | 129 | 129 | -10.0 | 128 | +10.9 | 129 | -12.8 | 131 | -1.66 | 102 |
| FCS | Z_FCS | 10-87 | 12-105 | -21.6 | 130 | 131 | -11.3 | 130 | +10.8 | 128 | -11.0 | 129 | 3.65 | 62 |
| Connecticut | Ind | 0-4 | 1-11 | -21.9 | 131 | 130 | -10.4 | 129 | +11.9 | 131 | -12.1 | 130 | 0.28 | 85 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +22.6 | 3 | 12 | +12.4 | 3 | -10.6 | 8 | +12.7 | 10 | 10.41 | 3 |
| OhioState | B10 | 2-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 4 | 5 | +15.1 | 1 | -5.9 | 41 | +14.5 | 6 | 9.97 | 5 |
| Iowa | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.5 | 6 | 6 | +5.5 | 33 | -14.4 | 3 | +14.4 | 7 | 8.24 | 18 |
| PennState | B10 | 3-0 | 9-3 | +20.5 | 7 | 7 | +8.1 | 16 | -11.8 | 6 | +15.5 | 3 | 11.05 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 1-1 | 8-4 | +17.1 | 13 | 10 | +3.9 | 48 | -13.2 | 5 | +8.5 | 26 | 10.40 | 4 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 28 | 54 | +5.6 | 32 | -6.0 | 37 | +8.1 | 32 | 6.95 | 31 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 34 | 62 | +5.2 | 35 | -5.1 | 50 | +9.8 | 20 | 9.20 | 8 |
| Maryland | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 37 | 35 | +3.1 | 53 | -7.1 | 27 | +8.4 | 27 | 8.48 | 14 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.4 | 39 | 48 | +5.0 | 40 | -5.5 | 45 | +5.5 | 54 | 7.88 | 23 |
| Purdue | B10 | 2-1 | 6-6 | +10.1 | 41 | 32 | +3.3 | 52 | -7.0 | 28 | +4.8 | 62 | 8.27 | 15 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 2-2 | 5-7 | +9.5 | 46 | 49 | +0.5 | 84 | -9.8 | 10 | +0.3 | 86 | 9.31 | 7 |
| Indiana | B10 | 1-2 | 5-7 | +9.4 | 47 | 27 | +4.4 | 44 | -5.2 | 48 | +5.0 | 59 | 11.81 | 1 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +0.1 | 96 | 92 | -4.0 | 106 | -4.3 | 62 | -1.4 | 99 | 6.46 | 35 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-3 | 3-9 | -1.0 | 98 | 103 | +0.3 | 86 | +0.8 | 96 | -4.1 | 110 | 9.85 | 6 |
#3 Michigan... hmmm...
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 3-0 | 11-1 | +28.1 | 1 | 1 | +11.7 | 5 | -15.8 | 2 | +19.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 |
| Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | 10-2 | +23.9 | 2 | 2 | +12.5 | 2 | -10.9 | 7 | +18.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 2 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 3-0 | 10-2 | +9.9 | 44 | 41 | +6.1 | 28 | -3.3 | 71 | +9.4 | 22 | 0.10 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 3-0 | 10-2 | +15.6 | 15 | 21 | +7.0 | 20 | -8.2 | 17 | +12.0 | 11 | 0.10 | 4 |
| Iowa | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.5 | 6 | 6 | +5.5 | 33 | -14.4 | 3 | +14.4 | 7 | 0.07 | 5 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.0 | 8 | 4 | +11.7 | 6 | -8.4 | 16 | +13.0 | 9 | 0.06 | 6 |
| Oregon | P12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +17.2 | 12 | 9 | +8.4 | 14 | -8.2 | 18 | +14.8 | 4 | 0.06 | 7 |
| Michigan | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +22.6 | 3 | 12 | +12.4 | 3 | -10.6 | 8 | +12.7 | 10 | 0.05 | 8 |
| PennState | B10 | 3-0 | 9-3 | +20.5 | 7 | 7 | +8.1 | 16 | -11.8 | 6 | +15.5 | 3 | 0.03 | 9 |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +8.0 | 58 | 56 | -0.7 | 95 | -8.1 | 19 | +7.9 | 36 | 0.02 | 10 |
| BYU | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 31 | 34 | +3.0 | 56 | -7.6 | 22 | +10.5 | 15 | 0.02 | 11 |
| Liberty | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +9.6 | 45 | 55 | +4.1 | 45 | -5.1 | 49 | +8.1 | 33 | 0.02 | 12 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +17.3 | 11 | 11 | +2.4 | 63 | -13.8 | 4 | +14.6 | 5 | 0.02 | 13 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 3-0 | 9-3 | +3.8 | 79 | 85 | -0.4 | 92 | -3.6 | 68 | +5.8 | 50 | 0.02 | 14 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +7.5 | 62 | 75 | +2.9 | 59 | -4.2 | 63 | +7.3 | 38 | 0.01 | 15 |
| Memphis | Amer | 3-0 | 9-3 | +7.9 | 59 | 53 | +7.9 | 18 | +0.9 | 100 | +11.2 | 12 | 0.01 | 16 |
| UtahState | MWC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +3.5 | 81 | 87 | +5.4 | 34 | +2.6 | 109 | +6.6 | 43 | 0.01 | 17 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 3-0 | 8-4 | +13.6 | 22 | 19 | +5.2 | 37 | -7.5 | 24 | +13.8 | 8 | 0.01 | 18 |
| Army | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +6.4 | 68 | 69 | +2.6 | 62 | -3.4 | 70 | +6.5 | 45 | 0.01 | 19 |
| SMU | Amer | 3-0 | 8-4 | +9.2 | 49 | 38 | +6.4 | 25 | -2.5 | 79 | +8.5 | 25 | 0.00 | 20 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +14.5 | 20 | 37 | +11.6 | 7 | -3.2 | 73 | +8.2 | 29 | 0.00 | 21 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +9.9 | 43 | 52 | +3.8 | 49 | -6.0 | 39 | +6.6 | 44 | 0.00 | 22 |
| KansasState | B12 | 3-0 | 8-4 | +11.4 | 30 | 51 | +2.3 | 67 | -8.4 | 15 | +10.2 | 17 | 0.00 | 23 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | +6.2 | 27 | -4.6 | 57 | +5.8 | 51 | 0.00 | 24 |
| TCU | B12 | 2-0 | 7-5 | +12.2 | 25 | 22 | +5.2 | 36 | -6.8 | 29 | +9.0 | 24 | 0.00 | 25 |
| Baylor | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 33 | 50 | +3.0 | 57 | -7.8 | 20 | +6.3 | 46 | 0.00 | 26 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 34 | 62 | +5.2 | 35 | -5.1 | 50 | +9.8 | 20 | 0.00 | 27 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.4 | 39 | 48 | +5.0 | 40 | -5.5 | 45 | +5.5 | 54 | 0.00 | 28 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 3-0 | 7-5 | +12.3 | 24 | 42 | +6.7 | 22 | -5.4 | 47 | +9.2 | 23 | 0.00 | 29 |
| Maryland | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 37 | 35 | +3.1 | 53 | -7.1 | 27 | +8.4 | 27 | 0.00 | 30 |
| SouthAlabama | Sun | 3-0 | 7-5 | -2.4 | 101 | 102 | -5.1 | 113 | -2.1 | 81 | +1.9 | 75 | 0.00 | 31 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 3-0 | 7-5 | +4.2 | 78 | 58 | +0.4 | 85 | -3.0 | 76 | +6.8 | 42 | 0.00 | 32 |
| TexasTech | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +6.9 | 63 | 80 | +4.9 | 41 | -1.9 | 82 | +5.4 | 57 | 0.00 | 33 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +6.5 | 66 | 71 | -0.7 | 94 | -6.1 | 36 | +10.3 | 16 | 0.00 | 34 |
I believe this list is full and complete at this point. Always manages to go down relatively quickly.
Now the more interesting set:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | MWC | 0-3 | 1-11 | -13.4 | 124 | 122 | -8.9 | 125 | +4.2 | 118 | -9.6 | 126 | 0.21 | 1 |
| Connecticut | Ind | 0-4 | 1-11 | -21.9 | 131 | 130 | -10.4 | 129 | +11.9 | 131 | -12.1 | 130 | 0.20 | 2 |
| Arizona | P12 | 0-3 | 2-10 | -5.4 | 109 | 107 | -4.7 | 111 | +0.1 | 92 | -6.8 | 120 | 0.17 | 3 |
| Navy | Amer | 0-2 | 2-10 | -9.5 | 117 | 121 | -8.2 | 124 | +1.1 | 102 | -6.2 | 118 | 0.15 | 4 |
| Ohio | MAC | 0-3 | 3-9 | -8.1 | 114 | 111 | -4.1 | 108 | +3.6 | 114 | -7.7 | 125 | 0.02 | 5 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 0-3 | 3-9 | +0.3 | 95 | 89 | +1.5 | 74 | +0.6 | 94 | -4.3 | 111 | 0.01 | 6 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 0-3 | 3-9 | -16.0 | 127 | 126 | -4.6 | 110 | +11.5 | 130 | -10.6 | 128 | 0.01 | 7 |
| Rice | CUSA | 0-3 | 3-9 | -11.3 | 122 | 117 | -8.9 | 126 | +2.4 | 107 | -6.6 | 119 | 0.00 | 8 |
| Tulsa | Amer | 0-3 | 5-7 | +1.8 | 87 | 90 | -2.5 | 101 | -4.8 | 54 | -2.2 | 102 | 0.00 | 9 |
See #UConnWatch for more information below. Hopefully they don't ruin this by winning a game.
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1 Loss | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | SEC | 3-0 | 11-1 | +28.1 | 1 | 1 | +11.7 | 5 | -15.8 | 2 | +19.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 |
| Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | 10-2 | +23.9 | 2 | 2 | +12.5 | 2 | -10.9 | 7 | +18.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 |
| Iowa | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.5 | 6 | 6 | +5.5 | 33 | -14.4 | 3 | +14.4 | 7 | 0.31 | 5 |
| Oregon | P12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +17.2 | 12 | 9 | +8.4 | 14 | -8.2 | 18 | +14.8 | 4 | 0.27 | 6 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +20.0 | 8 | 4 | +11.7 | 6 | -8.4 | 16 | +13.0 | 9 | 0.27 | 7 |
| Michigan | B10 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +22.6 | 3 | 12 | +12.4 | 3 | -10.6 | 8 | +12.7 | 10 | 0.24 | 8 |
| Clemson | ACC | 2-1 | 9-3 | +20.6 | 5 | 3 | +4.0 | 46 | -16.4 | 1 | +11.0 | 13 | 0.16 | 9 |
| PennState | B10 | 3-0 | 9-3 | +20.5 | 7 | 7 | +8.1 | 16 | -11.8 | 6 | +15.5 | 3 | 0.16 | 10 |
| BYU | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 31 | 34 | +3.0 | 56 | -7.6 | 22 | +10.5 | 15 | 0.13 | 12 |
| Liberty | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +9.6 | 45 | 55 | +4.1 | 45 | -5.1 | 49 | +8.1 | 33 | 0.13 | 13 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +17.3 | 11 | 11 | +2.4 | 63 | -13.8 | 4 | +14.6 | 5 | 0.11 | 15 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 2-1 | 9-3 | +16.3 | 14 | 16 | +11.9 | 4 | -5.1 | 51 | +7.5 | 37 | 0.06 | 19 |
| Army | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +6.4 | 68 | 69 | +2.6 | 62 | -3.4 | 70 | +6.5 | 45 | 0.06 | 21 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 3-0 | 8-4 | +13.6 | 22 | 19 | +5.2 | 37 | -7.5 | 24 | +13.8 | 8 | 0.05 | 22 |
| OhioState | B10 | 2-1 | 9-3 | +20.9 | 4 | 5 | +15.1 | 1 | -5.9 | 41 | +14.5 | 6 | 0.04 | 26 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +14.5 | 20 | 37 | +11.6 | 7 | -3.2 | 73 | +8.2 | 29 | 0.03 | 28 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +9.9 | 43 | 52 | +3.8 | 49 | -6.0 | 39 | +6.6 | 44 | 0.03 | 29 |
| Texas | B12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +18.5 | 9 | 15 | +11.3 | 8 | -7.7 | 21 | +10.0 | 18 | 0.03 | 31 |
| USC | P12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 16 | 26 | +8.2 | 15 | -6.7 | 30 | +10.7 | 14 | 0.03 | 33 |
| KansasState | B12 | 3-0 | 8-4 | +11.4 | 30 | 51 | +2.3 | 67 | -8.4 | 15 | +10.2 | 17 | 0.02 | 34 |
| Florida | SEC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 17 | 14 | +8.5 | 13 | -6.5 | 32 | +10.0 | 19 | 0.02 | 38 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | +10.6 | 38 | 45 | +6.2 | 27 | -4.6 | 57 | +5.8 | 51 | 0.02 | 39 |
| TCU | B12 | 2-0 | 7-5 | +12.2 | 25 | 22 | +5.2 | 36 | -6.8 | 29 | +9.0 | 24 | 0.01 | 41 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 1-1 | 8-4 | +17.1 | 13 | 10 | +3.9 | 48 | -13.2 | 5 | +8.5 | 26 | 0.01 | 42 |
| Baylor | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 33 | 50 | +3.0 | 57 | -7.8 | 20 | +6.3 | 46 | 0.01 | 43 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +10.8 | 35 | 31 | +2.1 | 68 | -8.7 | 13 | +5.8 | 52 | 0.01 | 44 |
| UCLA | P12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | +13.8 | 21 | 13 | +9.8 | 11 | -4.6 | 56 | +6.0 | 48 | 0.01 | 45 |
| Auburn | SEC | 2-1 | 8-4 | +18.4 | 10 | 8 | +9.9 | 10 | -9.3 | 12 | +7.0 | 41 | 0.01 | 46 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 34 | 62 | +5.2 | 35 | -5.1 | 50 | +9.8 | 20 | 0.01 | 47 |
| IowaState | B12 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +15.0 | 18 | 25 | +5.6 | 31 | -9.5 | 11 | +8.1 | 35 | 0.01 | 48 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 2-1 | 7-5 | +11.7 | 28 | 54 | +5.6 | 32 | -6.0 | 37 | +8.1 | 32 | 0.01 | 50 |
#PlayoffArmy? Are they only here because I included the Independents for Notre Dame purposes? There's no need to get into all that right now.
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OklahomaState | B12 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +6.5 | 66 | 71 | -0.7 | 94 | -6.1 | 36 | +10.3 | 16 | 0.95 | 1 |
| Memphis | Amer | 3-0 | 9-3 | +7.9 | 59 | 53 | +7.9 | 18 | +0.9 | 100 | +11.2 | 12 | 0.94 | 2 |
| NotreDame | Ind | 3-0 | 8-4 | +13.6 | 22 | 19 | +5.2 | 37 | -7.5 | 24 | +13.8 | 8 | 0.77 | 3 |
| Stanford | P12 | 2-1 | 6-6 | +9.1 | 50 | 57 | +3.4 | 51 | -5.1 | 52 | +9.5 | 21 | 0.56 | 11 |
| Oregon | P12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | +17.2 | 12 | 9 | +8.4 | 14 | -8.2 | 18 | +14.8 | 4 | 0.55 | 13 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | +17.3 | 11 | 11 | +2.4 | 63 | -13.8 | 4 | +14.6 | 5 | 0.52 | 16 |
| BYU | Ind | 3-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 31 | 34 | +3.0 | 56 | -7.6 | 22 | +10.5 | 15 | 0.50 | 18 |
| Alabama | SEC | 3-0 | 10-2 | +23.9 | 2 | 2 | +12.5 | 2 | -10.9 | 7 | +18.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 23 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 3-0 | 10-2 | +9.9 | 44 | 41 | +6.1 | 28 | -3.3 | 71 | +9.4 | 22 | 0.46 | 24 |
| KansasState | B12 | 3-0 | 8-4 | +11.4 | 30 | 51 | +2.3 | 67 | -8.4 | 15 | +10.2 | 17 | 0.44 | 27 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 3-0 | 7-5 | +10.8 | 34 | 62 | +5.2 | 35 | -5.1 | 50 | +9.8 | 20 | 0.42 | 28 |
You'll notice this list has 11 teams this week, which is purely because I wanted to include Sparty. I won't deny it.
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 1-2 | 3-9 | -10.6 | 120 | 123 | -7.4 | 122 | +3.2 | 112 | -5.7 | 116 | 3.77 | 61 |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-2 | 2-10 | -10.1 | 119 | 115 | -6.0 | 118 | +4.5 | 121 | -3.7 | 108 | 9.09 | 9 |
| Arizona | P12 | 0-3 | 2-10 | -5.4 | 109 | 107 | -4.7 | 111 | +0.1 | 92 | -6.8 | 120 | 7.26 | 28 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-3 | 3-9 | -1.0 | 98 | 103 | +0.3 | 86 | +0.8 | 96 | -4.1 | 110 | 9.85 | 6 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +0.1 | 96 | 92 | -4.0 | 106 | -4.3 | 62 | -1.4 | 99 | 6.46 | 35 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 0-3 | 3-9 | +0.3 | 95 | 89 | +1.5 | 74 | +0.6 | 94 | -4.3 | 111 | 7.49 | 26 |
| Duke | ACC | 2-1 | 5-7 | +0.5 | 93 | 98 | +1.3 | 77 | +0.8 | 97 | +0.6 | 82 | 3.41 | 64 |
| WashingtonState | P12 | 1-2 | 4-8 | +0.8 | 91 | 77 | +0.5 | 83 | -0.5 | 89 | -0.9 | 92 | 6.01 | 41 |
I don't think Florida State is actually this bad, but they clearly aren't good.
BONUS: UConn Watch
#13520 out of 13866 total teams (2.5%-ile) since 1873
#7287 out of 7454 total teams (2.2%-ile) since 1960
#4823 out of 4939 total teams (2.3%-ile) since 1980
#2643 out of 2708 total teams (2.4%-ile) since 2000
#1482 out of 1523 total teams (2.7%-ile) since 2010
#884 out of 906 total teams (2.4%-ile) since 2015
Maybe my pre-season guesstimates are still propping UConn up, but they have a ways to go to catch a number of teams in recent years (including some P5 teams). 2019 Massachusetts (who somehow won a game) was horrific.
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #3 Michigan | H | #102 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #32 Washington | H | #103 ArkansasState | W | 52 | 3 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #9 Texas | H | #122 Rice | W | 58 | 0 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #16 USC | V | #91 WashingtonState | W | 45 | 14 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #34 MichiganState | V | #57 Miami | W | 38 | 17 |
And of the year (so far):
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #1 Georgia | H | #60 UAB | W | 56 | 7 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #3 Michigan | H | #102 NorthernIllinois | W | 63 | 10 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #2 Alabama | N | #57 Miami | W | 44 | 13 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #24 Arkansas | H | #9 Texas | W | 40 | 21 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #32 Washington | H | #103 ArkansasState | W | 52 | 3 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #3 Michigan | H | #61 WesternMichigan | W | 47 | 14 |
| 3 | Sat | 2021-09-11 | #12 Oregon | V | #4 OhioState | W | 35 | 28 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #9 Texas | H | #122 Rice | W | 58 | 0 |
| 4 | Sat | 2021-09-18 | #16 USC | V | #91 WashingtonState | W | 45 | 14 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #6 Iowa | H | #47 Indiana | W | 34 | 6 |
It had been a while, but I think I was sorting on the wrong column before. I updated that so we shoudln't have quite so many blowouts over crappy teams listed.
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 296.3 over 147 games, which would rank #26 (out of 48 ratings systems) here: [LINK]. I'm still missing a game somewhere, cannot figure out what game that is...
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | #13 Wisconsin | N | #22 NotreDame | 60% | 3.4 |
| Sep 25 | #33 Baylor | H | #18 IowaState | 45% | -1.7 |
| Sep 25 | #24 Arkansas | N | #11 TexasAM | 37% | -4.9 |
| Sep 25 | #50 Stanford | H | #21 UCLA | 44% | -2.2 |
| Sep 24 | #38 WakeForest | V | #52 Virginia | 48% | -0.8 |
| Sep 25 | #19 LSU | V | #53 MississippiState | 59% | 3.3 |
| Sep 25 | #5 Clemson | V | #36 NorthCarolinaState | 70% | 7.4 |
| Sep 25 | #30 KansasState | V | #66 OklahomaState | 56% | 2.3 |
| Sep 24 | #70 Syracuse | H | #45 Liberty | 47% | -1.2 |
| Sep 25 | #34 MichiganState | H | #46 Nebraska | 60% | 3.7 |
| Sep 25 | #49 SMU | V | #25 TCU | 35% | -5.4 |
| Sep 25 | #8 Oklahoma | H | #27 WestVirginia | 77% | 10.6 |
| Sep 25 | #71 FloridaAtlantic | V | #84 AirForce | 52% | 0.6 |
| Sep 25 | #55 OregonState | V | #16 USC | 27% | -8.7 |
| Sep 23 | #65 Marshall | V | #48 AppalachianState | 36% | -5.0 |
| Sep 25 | #83 Tulane | H | #60 UAB | 43% | -2.5 |
| Sep 25 | #88 BallState | H | #77 Toledo | 47% | -1.0 |
| Sep 25 | #3 Michigan | H | #39 Rutgers | 83% | 14.5 |
| Sep 25 | #26 BoiseState | V | #81 UtahState | 66% | 6.0 |
| Sep 25 | #78 Kentucky | V | #76 SouthCarolina | 41% | -3.1 |
| Sep 25 | #43 BostonCollege | H | #73 Missouri | 69% | 7.1 |
| Sep 25 | #95 FloridaState | H | #74 Louisville | 43% | -2.4 |
| Sep 25 | #75 California | V | #32 Washington | 28% | -8.4 |
| Sep 25 | #59 Memphis | H | #79 UTSA | 67% | 6.5 |
| Sep 25 | #61 WesternMichigan | H | #82 SanJoseState | 68% | 6.8 |
| Sep 25 | #9 Texas | H | #63 TexasTech | 83% | 13.9 |
| Sep 25 | #17 Florida | H | #72 Tennessee | 80% | 12.1 |
| Sep 25 | #80 GeorgiaTech | N | #14 NorthCarolina | 20% | -12.5 |
| Sep 24 | #107 Charlotte | H | #100 MiddleTennessee | 50% | 0.0 |
| Sep 25 | #47 Indiana | V | #99 WesternKentucky | 71% | 7.8 |
| Sep 25 | #42 ArizonaState | H | #85 Colorado | 75% | 10.0 |
| Sep 25 | #68 Army | H | #90 MiamiOH | 71% | 7.9 |
| Sep 25 | #91 WashingtonState | V | #40 Utah | 21% | -11.9 |
| Sep 25 | #87 Tulsa | H | #103 ArkansasState | 70% | 7.4 |
| Sep 25 | #37 Maryland | H | #97 KentState | 82% | 13.5 |
| Sep 25 | #98 Illinois | V | #41 Purdue | 18% | -13.4 |
| Sep 25 | #123 UTEP | H | #111 NewMexico | 45% | -1.8 |
| Sep 25 | #110 FIU | V | #86 CentralMichigan | 23% | -10.6 |
| Sep 25 | #115 GeorgiaSouthern | H | #51 LouisianaLafayette | 17% | -14.4 |
| Sep 25 | #94 EasternMichigan | H | #112 TexasState | 77% | 10.6 |
| Sep 25 | #96 Northwestern | H | #114 Ohio | 76% | 10.5 |
| Sep 25 | #92 LouisianaTech | H | #113 NorthTexas | 77% | 11.0 |
| Sep 25 | #118 OldDominion | H | #64 Buffalo | 18% | -13.8 |
| Sep 25 | #93 Duke | H | #119 Kansas | 81% | 12.9 |
| Sep 25 | #6 Iowa | H | #104 ColoradoState | 95% | 26.0 |
| Sep 25 | #12 Oregon | H | #109 Arizona | 94% | 24.7 |
| Sep 25 | #10 Auburn | H | #108 GeorgiaState | 95% | 25.8 |
| Sep 25 | #56 Houston | H | #117 Navy | 90% | 19.9 |
| Sep 25 | #106 SouthernMississippi | V | #2 Alabama | 3% | -30.6 |
| Sep 25 | #67 Troy | V | #125 LouisianaMonroe | 88% | 18.0 |
| Sep 25 | #121 SouthFlorida | V | #31 BYU | 6% | -24.5 |
| Sep 25 | #129 NewMexicoState | H | #105 Hawaii | 18% | -13.5 |
| Sep 25 | #7 PennState | H | Villanova | 97% | 31.8 |
| Sep 25 | #1 Georgia | V | #120 Vanderbilt | 98% | 35.6 |
| Sep 24 | #23 FresnoState | H | #124 UNLV | 96% | 28.8 |
| Sep 25 | #102 NorthernIllinois | H | Maine | 88% | 18.1 |
| Sep 25 | #127 Massachusetts | V | #44 CoastalCarolina | 4% | -27.9 |
| Sep 25 | #35 VirginiaTech | H | Richmond | 97% | 29.8 |
| Sep 25 | #28 Minnesota | H | #128 BowlingGreen | 97% | 30.6 |
| Sep 25 | #131 Connecticut | H | #62 Wyoming | 5% | -26.6 |
| Sep 25 | #4 OhioState | H | #126 Akron | 99% | 37.7 |
| Sep 25 | #54 Pittsburgh | H | NewHampshire | 97% | 29.9 |
| Sep 25 | #58 SanDiegoState | H | Towson | 98% | 37.1 |
| Sep 25 | #57 Miami | H | Central Connecticut State | 99% | 38.6 |
| Sep 25 | #116 Temple | H | Wagner | 96% | 28.0 |
| Sep 25 | #89 EastCarolina | H | Charleston Southern | 98% | 34.9 |
| Sep 25 | #122 Rice | H | TexasSouthern | 96% | 29.1 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | #13 Wisconsin | N | #22 NotreDame | 60% | 3.4 |
| Sep 25 | #34 MichiganState | H | #46 Nebraska | 60% | 3.7 |
| Sep 25 | #3 Michigan | H | #39 Rutgers | 83% | 14.5 |
| Sep 25 | #47 Indiana | V | #99 WesternKentucky | 71% | 7.8 |
| Sep 25 | #37 Maryland | H | #97 KentState | 82% | 13.5 |
| Sep 25 | #98 Illinois | V | #41 Purdue | 18% | -13.4 |
| Sep 25 | #96 Northwestern | H | #114 Ohio | 76% | 10.5 |
| Sep 25 | #6 Iowa | H | #104 ColoradoState | 95% | 26.0 |
| Sep 25 | #7 PennState | H | Villanova | 97% | 31.8 |
| Sep 25 | #28 Minnesota | H | #128 BowlingGreen | 97% | 30.6 |
| Sep 25 | #4 OhioState | H | #126 Akron | 99% | 37.7 |
That Akron (actual Akron) will be blood everywhere. Or not, guess we'll see how the Buckeyes respond.
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