FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 05

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The wife got a last-minute invite to attend the Wisc-ND game on Saturday, so guess who gets to watch two kids by himself this weekend? Gonna be lit, y'all.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 3-0 11-1 +28.1 1 1 +11.7 5 -15.8 2 +19.5 1 4.72 55
Alabama SEC 3-0 10-2 +23.9 2 2 +12.5 2 -10.9 7 +18.6 2 5.73 46
Michigan B10 3-0 10-2 +22.6 3 12 +12.4 3 -10.6 8 +12.7 10 10.41 3
OhioState B10 2-1 9-3 +20.9 4 5 +15.1 1 -5.9 41 +14.5 6 9.97 5
Clemson ACC 2-1 9-3 +20.6 5 3 +4.0 46 -16.4 1 +11.0 13 3.39 65
Iowa B10 3-0 10-2 +20.5 6 6 +5.5 33 -14.4 3 +14.4 7 8.24 18
PennState B10 3-0 9-3 +20.5 7 7 +8.1 16 -11.8 6 +15.5 3 11.05 2
Oklahoma B12 3-0 10-2 +20.0 8 4 +11.7 6 -8.4 16 +13.0 9 4.99 52
Texas B12 2-1 8-4 +18.5 9 15 +11.3 8 -7.7 21 +10.0 18 7.88 24
Auburn SEC 2-1 8-4 +18.4 10 8 +9.9 10 -9.3 12 +7.0 41 8.18 19
TexasAM SEC 3-0 9-3 +17.3 11 11 +2.4 63 -13.8 4 +14.6 5 5.45 48
Oregon P12 3-0 10-2 +17.2 12 9 +8.4 14 -8.2 18 +14.8 4 5.41 49
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +17.1 13 10 +3.9 48 -13.2 5 +8.5 26 10.40 4
NorthCarolina ACC 2-1 9-3 +16.3 14 16 +11.9 4 -5.1 51 +7.5 37 4.84 54
Cincinnati Amer 3-0 10-2 +15.6 15 21 +7.0 20 -8.2 17 +12.0 11 -0.88 94
USC P12 2-1 8-4 +15.1 16 26 +8.2 15 -6.7 30 +10.7 14 6.91 32
Florida SEC 2-1 8-4 +15.1 17 14 +8.5 13 -6.5 32 +10.0 19 4.69 56
IowaState B12 2-1 7-5 +15.0 18 25 +5.6 31 -9.5 11 +8.1 35 8.24 17
LSU SEC 2-1 7-5 +14.6 19 20 +8.7 12 -6.2 35 +8.1 31 8.25 16
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 37 +11.6 7 -3.2 73 +8.2 29 7.01 30
UCLA P12 2-1 8-4 +13.8 21 13 +9.8 11 -4.6 56 +6.0 48 8.18 20
NotreDame Ind 3-0 8-4 +13.6 22 19 +5.2 37 -7.5 24 +13.8 8 8.51 13
FresnoState MWC 3-1 9-3 +13.4 23 28 +8.0 17 -5.8 42 +5.9 49 -0.66 91
Arkansas SEC 3-0 7-5 +12.3 24 42 +6.7 22 -5.4 47 +9.2 23 8.00 21
TCU B12 2-0 7-5 +12.2 25 22 +5.2 36 -6.8 29 +9.0 24 6.65 34
BoiseState MWC 1-2 7-5 +12.1 26 18 +7.6 19 -5.0 53 +4.5 64 4.03 59
WestVirginia B12 2-1 7-5 +11.7 27 30 +5.6 30 -6.4 33 +5.5 55 6.81 33
Minnesota B10 2-1 7-5 +11.7 28 54 +5.6 32 -6.0 37 +8.1 32 6.95 31
CentralFlorida Amer 2-1 9-3 +11.4 29 17 +11.2 9 -0.7 87 +5.4 58 -2.08 108
KansasState B12 3-0 8-4 +11.4 30 51 +2.3 67 -8.4 15 +10.2 17 7.89 22
BYU Ind 3-0 9-3 +11.3 31 34 +3.0 56 -7.6 22 +10.5 15 2.07 76
Washington P12 1-2 6-6 +11.0 32 67 +0.7 81 -10.6 9 +3.9 68 5.79 44
Baylor B12 3-0 7-5 +10.8 33 50 +3.0 57 -7.8 20 +6.3 46 4.96 53
MichiganState B10 3-0 7-5 +10.8 34 62 +5.2 35 -5.1 50 +9.8 20 9.20 8
VirginiaTech ACC 2-1 8-4 +10.8 35 31 +2.1 68 -8.7 13 +5.8 52 5.76 45
NorthCarolinaState ACC 2-1 7-5 +10.6 36 40 +2.4 64 -8.5 14 +4.5 65 5.26 50
Maryland B10 3-0 7-5 +10.6 37 35 +3.1 53 -7.1 27 +8.4 27 8.48 14
WakeForest ACC 3-0 8-4 +10.6 38 45 +6.2 27 -4.6 57 +5.8 51 3.84 60
Rutgers B10 3-0 7-5 +10.4 39 48 +5.0 40 -5.5 45 +5.5 54 7.88 23
Utah P12 1-2 6-6 +10.3 40 29 +5.1 39 -5.7 43 +3.7 69 6.20 39
Purdue B10 2-1 6-6 +10.1 41 32 +3.3 52 -7.0 28 +4.8 62 8.27 15
ArizonaState P12 2-1 7-5 +10.0 42 23 +2.8 61 -7.5 23 +4.7 63 3.01 69
BostonCollege ACC 3-0 8-4 +9.9 43 52 +3.8 49 -6.0 39 +6.6 44 2.11 75
CoastalCarolina Sun 3-0 10-2 +9.9 44 41 +6.1 28 -3.3 71 +9.4 22 -5.10 129
Liberty Ind 3-0 9-3 +9.6 45 55 +4.1 45 -5.1 49 +8.1 33 -1.97 106
Nebraska B10 2-2 5-7 +9.5 46 49 +0.5 84 -9.8 10 +0.3 86 9.31 7
Indiana B10 1-2 5-7 +9.4 47 27 +4.4 44 -5.2 48 +5.0 59 11.81 1
AppalachianState Sun 2-1 8-4 +9.3 48 33 +1.8 69 -7.4 26 +5.7 53 -1.85 104
SMU Amer 3-0 8-4 +9.2 49 38 +6.4 25 -2.5 79 +8.5 25 0.56 83
Stanford P12 2-1 6-6 +9.1 50 57 +3.4 51 -5.1 52 +9.5 21 8.86 10
LouisianaLafayette Sun 2-1 8-4 +9.0 51 63 +4.5 43 -4.2 64 +7.2 40 -1.47 99
Virginia ACC 2-1 7-5 +8.9 52 36 +6.5 23 -3.0 77 +2.6 72 5.10 51
MississippiState SEC 2-1 6-6 +8.8 53 46 +1.8 70 -6.7 31 +7.2 39 8.65 12
Pittsburgh ACC 2-1 7-5 +8.8 54 39 +6.2 26 -2.9 78 +3.9 67 4.50 58
OregonState P12 2-1 6-6 +8.7 55 74 +6.0 29 -3.2 74 +2.8 71 6.26 38
Houston Amer 2-1 9-3 +8.3 56 66 +4.6 42 -4.3 61 +1.4 77 -5.00 128
Miami ACC 1-2 6-6 +8.1 57 24 +3.1 54 -4.5 58 +8.1 30 6.43 36
SanDiegoState MWC 3-0 9-3 +8.0 58 56 -0.7 95 -8.1 19 +7.9 36 -2.45 112
Memphis Amer 3-0 9-3 +7.9 59 53 +7.9 18 +0.9 100 +11.2 12 1.12 80
UAB CUSA 2-1 8-4 +7.8 60 79 +1.7 71 -5.5 46 +8.2 28 0.95 81
WesternMichigan MAC 2-1 8-4 +7.8 61 73 +6.7 21 -0.7 88 +8.1 34 1.96 77
Wyoming MWC 3-0 9-3 +7.5 62 75 +2.9 59 -4.2 63 +7.3 38 -1.61 101
TexasTech B12 3-0 7-5 +6.9 63 80 +4.9 41 -1.9 82 +5.4 57 5.94 43
Buffalo MAC 1-2 8-4 +6.8 64 59 +3.9 47 -3.7 67 -0.8 91 -4.79 126
Marshall CUSA 2-1 8-4 +6.7 65 44 +3.1 55 -4.1 65 +1.6 76 -4.18 124
OklahomaState B12 3-0 7-5 +6.5 66 71 -0.7 94 -6.1 36 +10.3 16 7.39 27
Troy Sun 2-1 8-4 +6.5 67 72 -0.7 97 -7.4 25 +2.4 73 -2.91 115
Army Ind 3-0 9-3 +6.4 68 69 +2.6 62 -3.4 70 +6.5 45 -3.04 117
Nevada MWC 2-1 8-4 +6.1 69 47 +1.7 72 -3.9 66 +6.3 47 -0.74 93
Syracuse ACC 2-1 6-6 +5.9 70 84 +0.8 80 -5.6 44 +0.5 84 5.67 47
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 2-1 8-4 +5.5 71 60 -0.6 93 -6.0 40 +4.1 66 -3.33 122
Tennessee SEC 2-1 6-6 +5.2 72 82 +1.4 76 -4.3 60 +0.0 87 3.11 68
Missouri SEC 2-1 6-6 +5.2 73 68 +5.2 38 -0.0 91 +3.4 70 4.54 57
Louisville ACC 2-1 6-6 +5.1 74 86 +2.9 60 -2.4 80 +2.2 74 6.13 40
California P12 1-2 5-7 +4.9 75 64 +2.4 65 -3.2 75 -0.7 90 5.95 42
SouthCarolina SEC 2-1 6-6 +4.8 76 78 +0.0 89 -4.5 59 +4.9 61 7.10 29
Toledo MAC 1-2 7-5 +4.7 77 43 +1.7 73 -3.6 69 -0.5 89 -5.53 130
Kentucky SEC 3-0 7-5 +4.2 78 58 +0.4 85 -3.0 76 +6.8 42 2.28 74
UTSA CUSA 3-0 9-3 +3.8 79 85 -0.4 92 -3.6 68 +5.8 50 -6.67 131
GeorgiaTech ACC 1-2 4-8 +3.7 80 88 -0.3 91 -4.8 55 -3.0 103 8.80 11
UtahState MWC 3-0 9-3 +3.5 81 87 +5.4 34 +2.6 109 +6.6 43 -2.49 113
SanJoseState MWC 2-1 7-5 +3.3 82 83 -3.3 103 -6.0 38 +5.5 56 -0.71 92
Tulane Amer 1-2 5-7 +2.8 83 61 +6.5 24 +3.2 113 -0.2 88 2.98 70
AirForce MWC 2-1 6-6 +2.4 84 81 -0.7 96 -3.3 72 +0.8 80 -0.46 89
Colorado P12 1-2 4-8 +2.3 85 65 -3.9 105 -6.3 34 +0.8 81 7.67 25
CentralMichigan MAC 1-2 6-6 +2.3 86 76 +1.5 75 -1.3 84 -1.3 96 -0.59 90
Tulsa Amer 0-3 5-7 +1.8 87 90 -2.5 101 -4.8 54 -2.2 102 2.34 73
BallState MAC 1-2 6-6 +1.2 88 70 +1.0 79 +0.4 93 +4.9 60 2.74 71
EastCarolina Amer 1-2 6-6 +1.1 89 101 +2.3 66 +0.9 101 -1.1 94 0.58 82
MiamiOH MAC 1-2 6-6 +0.9 90 95 -0.1 90 -0.8 85 +1.4 78 -2.29 110
WashingtonState P12 1-2 4-8 +0.8 91 77 +0.5 83 -0.5 89 -0.9 92 6.01 41
LouisianaTech CUSA 1-2 6-6 +0.7 92 94 +3.7 50 +2.8 111 -1.2 95 -2.01 107
Duke ACC 2-1 5-7 +0.5 93 98 +1.3 77 +0.8 97 +0.6 82 3.41 64
EasternMichigan MAC 2-1 7-5 +0.5 94 93 +0.1 88 -0.2 90 +1.4 79 -3.15 118
FloridaState ACC 0-3 3-9 +0.3 95 89 +1.5 74 +0.6 94 -4.3 111 7.49 26
Northwestern B10 1-2 4-8 +0.1 96 92 -4.0 106 -4.3 62 -1.4 99 6.46 35
KentState MAC 1-2 6-6 -0.7 97 97 +1.1 78 +1.9 104 +0.5 85 -1.92 105
Illinois B10 1-3 3-9 -1.0 98 103 +0.3 86 +0.8 96 -4.1 110 9.85 6
WesternKentucky CUSA 1-1 6-6 -1.0 99 99 +0.3 87 +0.8 98 -3.7 106 -1.33 97
MiddleTennessee CUSA 1-2 6-6 -2.4 100 100 -1.5 98 +0.7 95 -3.1 104 -3.33 121
SouthAlabama Sun 3-0 7-5 -2.4 101 102 -5.1 113 -2.1 81 +1.9 75 -3.32 120
NorthernIllinois MAC 1-2 5-7 -3.0 102 96 +0.6 82 +3.8 115 -0.9 93 1.81 78
ArkansasState Sun 1-2 5-7 -3.3 103 91 +3.0 58 +6.5 126 -1.3 97 0.10 87
ColoradoState MWC 1-2 4-8 -3.4 104 116 -3.6 104 -0.7 86 -5.3 115 2.70 72
Hawaii MWC 1-3 5-8 -4.6 105 109 -1.9 99 +2.5 108 -4.3 112 -1.39 98
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-2 5-7 -4.7 106 105 -5.5 115 -1.3 83 -5.8 117 -2.13 109
Charlotte CUSA 2-1 6-6 -4.9 107 108 -4.2 109 +0.8 99 -2.1 101 -4.22 125
GeorgiaState Sun 1-2 4-8 -5.2 108 114 -2.1 100 +3.8 116 +0.6 83 3.12 67
Arizona P12 0-3 2-10 -5.4 109 107 -4.7 111 +0.1 92 -6.8 120 7.26 28
FIU CUSA 1-2 5-7 -6.0 110 104 -2.7 102 +2.8 110 -7.1 123 -4.06 123
NewMexico MWC 2-1 5-7 -7.0 111 113 -5.6 117 +1.9 103 -1.5 100 -1.10 95
TexasState Sun 1-2 4-8 -7.8 112 106 -5.1 114 +2.3 106 -7.0 122 -3.18 119
NorthTexas CUSA 1-2 4-8 -8.0 113 110 -4.0 107 +4.2 119 -3.9 109 -1.48 100
Ohio MAC 0-3 3-9 -8.1 114 111 -4.1 108 +3.6 114 -7.7 125 -2.33 111
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 1-2 3-9 -8.1 115 112 -6.6 120 +2.1 105 -1.3 98 1.50 79
Temple Amer 1-2 4-8 -9.0 116 118 -4.8 112 +4.6 122 -3.5 105 -0.21 88
Navy Amer 0-2 2-10 -9.5 117 121 -8.2 124 +1.1 102 -6.2 118 6.28 37
OldDominion CUSA 1-2 4-8 -9.7 118 120 -5.5 116 +4.0 117 -6.8 121 -1.68 103
Kansas B12 1-2 2-10 -10.1 119 115 -6.0 118 +4.5 121 -3.7 108 9.09 9
Vanderbilt SEC 1-2 3-9 -10.6 120 123 -7.4 122 +3.2 112 -5.7 116 3.77 61
SouthFlorida Amer 1-2 2-10 -11.1 121 119 -6.4 119 +5.1 124 -4.3 113 3.29 66
Rice CUSA 0-3 3-9 -11.3 122 117 -8.9 126 +2.4 107 -6.6 119 -1.27 96
UTEP CUSA 2-1 5-7 -11.3 123 124 -7.5 123 +4.3 120 -3.7 107 -4.92 127
UNLV MWC 0-3 1-11 -13.4 124 122 -8.9 125 +4.2 118 -9.6 126 3.62 63
LouisianaMonroe Sun 1-1 3-9 -14.3 125 125 -9.1 127 +5.7 125 -4.9 114 0.52 84
Akron MAC 1-2 3-9 -14.9 126 127 -7.4 121 +7.9 127 -7.2 124 0.25 86
Massachusetts Ind 0-3 3-9 -16.0 127 126 -4.6 110 +11.5 130 -10.6 128 -3.00 116
BowlingGreen MAC 1-2 3-9 -16.9 128 128 -11.9 131 +4.8 123 -10.1 127 -2.54 114
NewMexicoState Ind 1-3 2-10 -20.8 129 129 -10.0 128 +10.9 129 -12.8 131 -1.66 102
FCS Z_FCS 10-87 12-105 -21.6 130 131 -11.3 130 +10.8 128 -11.0 129 3.65 62
Connecticut Ind 0-4 1-11 -21.9 131 130 -10.4 129 +11.9 131 -12.1 130 0.28 85

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Michigan B10 3-0 10-2 +22.6 3 12 +12.4 3 -10.6 8 +12.7 10 10.41 3
OhioState B10 2-1 9-3 +20.9 4 5 +15.1 1 -5.9 41 +14.5 6 9.97 5
Iowa B10 3-0 10-2 +20.5 6 6 +5.5 33 -14.4 3 +14.4 7 8.24 18
PennState B10 3-0 9-3 +20.5 7 7 +8.1 16 -11.8 6 +15.5 3 11.05 2
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +17.1 13 10 +3.9 48 -13.2 5 +8.5 26 10.40 4
Minnesota B10 2-1 7-5 +11.7 28 54 +5.6 32 -6.0 37 +8.1 32 6.95 31
MichiganState B10 3-0 7-5 +10.8 34 62 +5.2 35 -5.1 50 +9.8 20 9.20 8
Maryland B10 3-0 7-5 +10.6 37 35 +3.1 53 -7.1 27 +8.4 27 8.48 14
Rutgers B10 3-0 7-5 +10.4 39 48 +5.0 40 -5.5 45 +5.5 54 7.88 23
Purdue B10 2-1 6-6 +10.1 41 32 +3.3 52 -7.0 28 +4.8 62 8.27 15
Nebraska B10 2-2 5-7 +9.5 46 49 +0.5 84 -9.8 10 +0.3 86 9.31 7
Indiana B10 1-2 5-7 +9.4 47 27 +4.4 44 -5.2 48 +5.0 59 11.81 1
Northwestern B10 1-2 4-8 +0.1 96 92 -4.0 106 -4.3 62 -1.4 99 6.46 35
Illinois B10 1-3 3-9 -1.0 98 103 +0.3 86 +0.8 96 -4.1 110 9.85 6

#3 Michigan... hmmm...

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 3-0 11-1 +28.1 1 1 +11.7 5 -15.8 2 +19.5 1 0.36 1
Alabama SEC 3-0 10-2 +23.9 2 2 +12.5 2 -10.9 7 +18.6 2 0.13 2
CoastalCarolina Sun 3-0 10-2 +9.9 44 41 +6.1 28 -3.3 71 +9.4 22 0.10 3
Cincinnati Amer 3-0 10-2 +15.6 15 21 +7.0 20 -8.2 17 +12.0 11 0.10 4
Iowa B10 3-0 10-2 +20.5 6 6 +5.5 33 -14.4 3 +14.4 7 0.07 5
Oklahoma B12 3-0 10-2 +20.0 8 4 +11.7 6 -8.4 16 +13.0 9 0.06 6
Oregon P12 3-0 10-2 +17.2 12 9 +8.4 14 -8.2 18 +14.8 4 0.06 7
Michigan B10 3-0 10-2 +22.6 3 12 +12.4 3 -10.6 8 +12.7 10 0.05 8
PennState B10 3-0 9-3 +20.5 7 7 +8.1 16 -11.8 6 +15.5 3 0.03 9
SanDiegoState MWC 3-0 9-3 +8.0 58 56 -0.7 95 -8.1 19 +7.9 36 0.02 10
BYU Ind 3-0 9-3 +11.3 31 34 +3.0 56 -7.6 22 +10.5 15 0.02 11
Liberty Ind 3-0 9-3 +9.6 45 55 +4.1 45 -5.1 49 +8.1 33 0.02 12
TexasAM SEC 3-0 9-3 +17.3 11 11 +2.4 63 -13.8 4 +14.6 5 0.02 13
UTSA CUSA 3-0 9-3 +3.8 79 85 -0.4 92 -3.6 68 +5.8 50 0.02 14
Wyoming MWC 3-0 9-3 +7.5 62 75 +2.9 59 -4.2 63 +7.3 38 0.01 15
Memphis Amer 3-0 9-3 +7.9 59 53 +7.9 18 +0.9 100 +11.2 12 0.01 16
UtahState MWC 3-0 9-3 +3.5 81 87 +5.4 34 +2.6 109 +6.6 43 0.01 17
NotreDame Ind 3-0 8-4 +13.6 22 19 +5.2 37 -7.5 24 +13.8 8 0.01 18
Army Ind 3-0 9-3 +6.4 68 69 +2.6 62 -3.4 70 +6.5 45 0.01 19
SMU Amer 3-0 8-4 +9.2 49 38 +6.4 25 -2.5 79 +8.5 25 0.00 20
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 37 +11.6 7 -3.2 73 +8.2 29 0.00 21
BostonCollege ACC 3-0 8-4 +9.9 43 52 +3.8 49 -6.0 39 +6.6 44 0.00 22
KansasState B12 3-0 8-4 +11.4 30 51 +2.3 67 -8.4 15 +10.2 17 0.00 23
WakeForest ACC 3-0 8-4 +10.6 38 45 +6.2 27 -4.6 57 +5.8 51 0.00 24
TCU B12 2-0 7-5 +12.2 25 22 +5.2 36 -6.8 29 +9.0 24 0.00 25
Baylor B12 3-0 7-5 +10.8 33 50 +3.0 57 -7.8 20 +6.3 46 0.00 26
MichiganState B10 3-0 7-5 +10.8 34 62 +5.2 35 -5.1 50 +9.8 20 0.00 27
Rutgers B10 3-0 7-5 +10.4 39 48 +5.0 40 -5.5 45 +5.5 54 0.00 28
Arkansas SEC 3-0 7-5 +12.3 24 42 +6.7 22 -5.4 47 +9.2 23 0.00 29
Maryland B10 3-0 7-5 +10.6 37 35 +3.1 53 -7.1 27 +8.4 27 0.00 30
SouthAlabama Sun 3-0 7-5 -2.4 101 102 -5.1 113 -2.1 81 +1.9 75 0.00 31
Kentucky SEC 3-0 7-5 +4.2 78 58 +0.4 85 -3.0 76 +6.8 42 0.00 32
TexasTech B12 3-0 7-5 +6.9 63 80 +4.9 41 -1.9 82 +5.4 57 0.00 33
OklahomaState B12 3-0 7-5 +6.5 66 71 -0.7 94 -6.1 36 +10.3 16 0.00 34

I believe this list is full and complete at this point. Always manages to go down relatively quickly.

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
UNLV MWC 0-3 1-11 -13.4 124 122 -8.9 125 +4.2 118 -9.6 126 0.21 1
Connecticut Ind 0-4 1-11 -21.9 131 130 -10.4 129 +11.9 131 -12.1 130 0.20 2
Arizona P12 0-3 2-10 -5.4 109 107 -4.7 111 +0.1 92 -6.8 120 0.17 3
Navy Amer 0-2 2-10 -9.5 117 121 -8.2 124 +1.1 102 -6.2 118 0.15 4
Ohio MAC 0-3 3-9 -8.1 114 111 -4.1 108 +3.6 114 -7.7 125 0.02 5
FloridaState ACC 0-3 3-9 +0.3 95 89 +1.5 74 +0.6 94 -4.3 111 0.01 6
Massachusetts Ind 0-3 3-9 -16.0 127 126 -4.6 110 +11.5 130 -10.6 128 0.01 7
Rice CUSA 0-3 3-9 -11.3 122 117 -8.9 126 +2.4 107 -6.6 119 0.00 8
Tulsa Amer 0-3 5-7 +1.8 87 90 -2.5 101 -4.8 54 -2.2 102 0.00 9

See #UConnWatch for more information below. Hopefully they don't ruin this by winning a game.

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 3-0 11-1 +28.1 1 1 +11.7 5 -15.8 2 +19.5 1 0.77 1
Alabama SEC 3-0 10-2 +23.9 2 2 +12.5 2 -10.9 7 +18.6 2 0.45 2
Iowa B10 3-0 10-2 +20.5 6 6 +5.5 33 -14.4 3 +14.4 7 0.31 5
Oregon P12 3-0 10-2 +17.2 12 9 +8.4 14 -8.2 18 +14.8 4 0.27 6
Oklahoma B12 3-0 10-2 +20.0 8 4 +11.7 6 -8.4 16 +13.0 9 0.27 7
Michigan B10 3-0 10-2 +22.6 3 12 +12.4 3 -10.6 8 +12.7 10 0.24 8
Clemson ACC 2-1 9-3 +20.6 5 3 +4.0 46 -16.4 1 +11.0 13 0.16 9
PennState B10 3-0 9-3 +20.5 7 7 +8.1 16 -11.8 6 +15.5 3 0.16 10
BYU Ind 3-0 9-3 +11.3 31 34 +3.0 56 -7.6 22 +10.5 15 0.13 12
Liberty Ind 3-0 9-3 +9.6 45 55 +4.1 45 -5.1 49 +8.1 33 0.13 13
TexasAM SEC 3-0 9-3 +17.3 11 11 +2.4 63 -13.8 4 +14.6 5 0.11 15
NorthCarolina ACC 2-1 9-3 +16.3 14 16 +11.9 4 -5.1 51 +7.5 37 0.06 19
Army Ind 3-0 9-3 +6.4 68 69 +2.6 62 -3.4 70 +6.5 45 0.06 21
NotreDame Ind 3-0 8-4 +13.6 22 19 +5.2 37 -7.5 24 +13.8 8 0.05 22
OhioState B10 2-1 9-3 +20.9 4 5 +15.1 1 -5.9 41 +14.5 6 0.04 26
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 37 +11.6 7 -3.2 73 +8.2 29 0.03 28
BostonCollege ACC 3-0 8-4 +9.9 43 52 +3.8 49 -6.0 39 +6.6 44 0.03 29
Texas B12 2-1 8-4 +18.5 9 15 +11.3 8 -7.7 21 +10.0 18 0.03 31
USC P12 2-1 8-4 +15.1 16 26 +8.2 15 -6.7 30 +10.7 14 0.03 33
KansasState B12 3-0 8-4 +11.4 30 51 +2.3 67 -8.4 15 +10.2 17 0.02 34
Florida SEC 2-1 8-4 +15.1 17 14 +8.5 13 -6.5 32 +10.0 19 0.02 38
WakeForest ACC 3-0 8-4 +10.6 38 45 +6.2 27 -4.6 57 +5.8 51 0.02 39
TCU B12 2-0 7-5 +12.2 25 22 +5.2 36 -6.8 29 +9.0 24 0.01 41
Wisconsin B10 1-1 8-4 +17.1 13 10 +3.9 48 -13.2 5 +8.5 26 0.01 42
Baylor B12 3-0 7-5 +10.8 33 50 +3.0 57 -7.8 20 +6.3 46 0.01 43
VirginiaTech ACC 2-1 8-4 +10.8 35 31 +2.1 68 -8.7 13 +5.8 52 0.01 44
UCLA P12 2-1 8-4 +13.8 21 13 +9.8 11 -4.6 56 +6.0 48 0.01 45
Auburn SEC 2-1 8-4 +18.4 10 8 +9.9 10 -9.3 12 +7.0 41 0.01 46
MichiganState B10 3-0 7-5 +10.8 34 62 +5.2 35 -5.1 50 +9.8 20 0.01 47
IowaState B12 2-1 7-5 +15.0 18 25 +5.6 31 -9.5 11 +8.1 35 0.01 48
Minnesota B10 2-1 7-5 +11.7 28 54 +5.6 32 -6.0 37 +8.1 32 0.01 50

#PlayoffArmy? Are they only here because I included the Independents for Notre Dame purposes? There's no need to get into all that right now.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
OklahomaState B12 3-0 7-5 +6.5 66 71 -0.7 94 -6.1 36 +10.3 16 0.95 1
Memphis Amer 3-0 9-3 +7.9 59 53 +7.9 18 +0.9 100 +11.2 12 0.94 2
NotreDame Ind 3-0 8-4 +13.6 22 19 +5.2 37 -7.5 24 +13.8 8 0.77 3
Stanford P12 2-1 6-6 +9.1 50 57 +3.4 51 -5.1 52 +9.5 21 0.56 11
Oregon P12 3-0 10-2 +17.2 12 9 +8.4 14 -8.2 18 +14.8 4 0.55 13
TexasAM SEC 3-0 9-3 +17.3 11 11 +2.4 63 -13.8 4 +14.6 5 0.52 16
BYU Ind 3-0 9-3 +11.3 31 34 +3.0 56 -7.6 22 +10.5 15 0.50 18
Alabama SEC 3-0 10-2 +23.9 2 2 +12.5 2 -10.9 7 +18.6 2 0.46 23
CoastalCarolina Sun 3-0 10-2 +9.9 44 41 +6.1 28 -3.3 71 +9.4 22 0.46 24
KansasState B12 3-0 8-4 +11.4 30 51 +2.3 67 -8.4 15 +10.2 17 0.44 27
MichiganState B10 3-0 7-5 +10.8 34 62 +5.2 35 -5.1 50 +9.8 20 0.42 28

You'll notice this list has 11 teams this week, which is purely because I wanted to include Sparty. I won't deny it.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 1-2 3-9 -10.6 120 123 -7.4 122 +3.2 112 -5.7 116 3.77 61
Kansas B12 1-2 2-10 -10.1 119 115 -6.0 118 +4.5 121 -3.7 108 9.09 9
Arizona P12 0-3 2-10 -5.4 109 107 -4.7 111 +0.1 92 -6.8 120 7.26 28
Illinois B10 1-3 3-9 -1.0 98 103 +0.3 86 +0.8 96 -4.1 110 9.85 6
Northwestern B10 1-2 4-8 +0.1 96 92 -4.0 106 -4.3 62 -1.4 99 6.46 35
FloridaState ACC 0-3 3-9 +0.3 95 89 +1.5 74 +0.6 94 -4.3 111 7.49 26
Duke ACC 2-1 5-7 +0.5 93 98 +1.3 77 +0.8 97 +0.6 82 3.41 64
WashingtonState P12 1-2 4-8 +0.8 91 77 +0.5 83 -0.5 89 -0.9 92 6.01 41

I don't think Florida State is actually this bad, but they clearly aren't good.

BONUS: UConn Watch

#13520 out of 13866 total teams (2.5%-ile) since 1873

#7287 out of 7454 total teams (2.2%-ile) since 1960

#4823 out of 4939 total teams (2.3%-ile) since 1980

#2643 out of 2708 total teams (2.4%-ile) since 2000

#1482 out of 1523 total teams (2.7%-ile) since 2010

#884 out of 906 total teams (2.4%-ile) since 2015

Maybe my pre-season guesstimates are still propping UConn up, but they have a ways to go to catch a number of teams in recent years (including some P5 teams). 2019 Massachusetts (who somehow won a game) was horrific.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #3 Michigan H #102 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #32 Washington H #103 ArkansasState W 52 3
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #9 Texas H #122 Rice W 58 0
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #16 USC V #91 WashingtonState W 45 14
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #34 MichiganState V #57 Miami W 38 17

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #60 UAB W 56 7
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #3 Michigan H #102 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #2 Alabama N #57 Miami W 44 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #24 Arkansas H #9 Texas W 40 21
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #32 Washington H #103 ArkansasState W 52 3
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #3 Michigan H #61 WesternMichigan W 47 14
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #12 Oregon V #4 OhioState W 35 28
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #9 Texas H #122 Rice W 58 0
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #16 USC V #91 WashingtonState W 45 14
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #6 Iowa H #47 Indiana W 34 6

It had been a while, but I think I was sorting on the wrong column before. I updated that so we shoudln't have quite so many blowouts over crappy teams listed.

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 296.3 over 147 games, which would rank #26 (out of 48 ratings systems) here: [LINK]. I'm still missing a game somewhere, cannot figure out what game that is...

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 25 #13 Wisconsin N #22 NotreDame 60% 3.4
Sep 25 #33 Baylor H #18 IowaState 45% -1.7
Sep 25 #24 Arkansas N #11 TexasAM 37% -4.9
Sep 25 #50 Stanford H #21 UCLA 44% -2.2
Sep 24 #38 WakeForest V #52 Virginia 48% -0.8
Sep 25 #19 LSU V #53 MississippiState 59% 3.3
Sep 25 #5 Clemson V #36 NorthCarolinaState 70% 7.4
Sep 25 #30 KansasState V #66 OklahomaState 56% 2.3
Sep 24 #70 Syracuse H #45 Liberty 47% -1.2
Sep 25 #34 MichiganState H #46 Nebraska 60% 3.7
Sep 25 #49 SMU V #25 TCU 35% -5.4
Sep 25 #8 Oklahoma H #27 WestVirginia 77% 10.6
Sep 25 #71 FloridaAtlantic V #84 AirForce 52% 0.6
Sep 25 #55 OregonState V #16 USC 27% -8.7
Sep 23 #65 Marshall V #48 AppalachianState 36% -5.0
Sep 25 #83 Tulane H #60 UAB 43% -2.5
Sep 25 #88 BallState H #77 Toledo 47% -1.0
Sep 25 #3 Michigan H #39 Rutgers 83% 14.5
Sep 25 #26 BoiseState V #81 UtahState 66% 6.0
Sep 25 #78 Kentucky V #76 SouthCarolina 41% -3.1
Sep 25 #43 BostonCollege H #73 Missouri 69% 7.1
Sep 25 #95 FloridaState H #74 Louisville 43% -2.4
Sep 25 #75 California V #32 Washington 28% -8.4
Sep 25 #59 Memphis H #79 UTSA 67% 6.5
Sep 25 #61 WesternMichigan H #82 SanJoseState 68% 6.8
Sep 25 #9 Texas H #63 TexasTech 83% 13.9
Sep 25 #17 Florida H #72 Tennessee 80% 12.1
Sep 25 #80 GeorgiaTech N #14 NorthCarolina 20% -12.5
Sep 24 #107 Charlotte H #100 MiddleTennessee 50% 0.0
Sep 25 #47 Indiana V #99 WesternKentucky 71% 7.8
Sep 25 #42 ArizonaState H #85 Colorado 75% 10.0
Sep 25 #68 Army H #90 MiamiOH 71% 7.9
Sep 25 #91 WashingtonState V #40 Utah 21% -11.9
Sep 25 #87 Tulsa H #103 ArkansasState 70% 7.4
Sep 25 #37 Maryland H #97 KentState 82% 13.5
Sep 25 #98 Illinois V #41 Purdue 18% -13.4
Sep 25 #123 UTEP H #111 NewMexico 45% -1.8
Sep 25 #110 FIU V #86 CentralMichigan 23% -10.6
Sep 25 #115 GeorgiaSouthern H #51 LouisianaLafayette 17% -14.4
Sep 25 #94 EasternMichigan H #112 TexasState 77% 10.6
Sep 25 #96 Northwestern H #114 Ohio 76% 10.5
Sep 25 #92 LouisianaTech H #113 NorthTexas 77% 11.0
Sep 25 #118 OldDominion H #64 Buffalo 18% -13.8
Sep 25 #93 Duke H #119 Kansas 81% 12.9
Sep 25 #6 Iowa H #104 ColoradoState 95% 26.0
Sep 25 #12 Oregon H #109 Arizona 94% 24.7
Sep 25 #10 Auburn H #108 GeorgiaState 95% 25.8
Sep 25 #56 Houston H #117 Navy 90% 19.9
Sep 25 #106 SouthernMississippi V #2 Alabama 3% -30.6
Sep 25 #67 Troy V #125 LouisianaMonroe 88% 18.0
Sep 25 #121 SouthFlorida V #31 BYU 6% -24.5
Sep 25 #129 NewMexicoState H #105 Hawaii 18% -13.5
Sep 25 #7 PennState H Villanova 97% 31.8
Sep 25 #1 Georgia V #120 Vanderbilt 98% 35.6
Sep 24 #23 FresnoState H #124 UNLV 96% 28.8
Sep 25 #102 NorthernIllinois H Maine 88% 18.1
Sep 25 #127 Massachusetts V #44 CoastalCarolina 4% -27.9
Sep 25 #35 VirginiaTech H Richmond 97% 29.8
Sep 25 #28 Minnesota H #128 BowlingGreen 97% 30.6
Sep 25 #131 Connecticut H #62 Wyoming 5% -26.6
Sep 25 #4 OhioState H #126 Akron 99% 37.7
Sep 25 #54 Pittsburgh H NewHampshire 97% 29.9
Sep 25 #58 SanDiegoState H Towson 98% 37.1
Sep 25 #57 Miami H Central Connecticut State 99% 38.6
Sep 25 #116 Temple H Wagner 96% 28.0
Sep 25 #89 EastCarolina H Charleston Southern 98% 34.9
Sep 25 #122 Rice H TexasSouthern 96% 29.1

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 25 #13 Wisconsin N #22 NotreDame 60% 3.4
Sep 25 #34 MichiganState H #46 Nebraska 60% 3.7
Sep 25 #3 Michigan H #39 Rutgers 83% 14.5
Sep 25 #47 Indiana V #99 WesternKentucky 71% 7.8
Sep 25 #37 Maryland H #97 KentState 82% 13.5
Sep 25 #98 Illinois V #41 Purdue 18% -13.4
Sep 25 #96 Northwestern H #114 Ohio 76% 10.5
Sep 25 #6 Iowa H #104 ColoradoState 95% 26.0
Sep 25 #7 PennState H Villanova 97% 31.8
Sep 25 #28 Minnesota H #128 BowlingGreen 97% 30.6
Sep 25 #4 OhioState H #126 Akron 99% 37.7

That Akron (actual Akron) will be blood everywhere. Or not, guess we'll see how the Buckeyes respond.