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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 06

On vacation this week. I slept into 10a (after feeding the dogs at 5a) today for the first time in years since my wonderful wife took the kids into daycare. It was amazing.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Georgia SEC 4-0 11-1 +31.5 1 1 +15.2 4 -16.4 2 +18.8 1 5.73 43
Alabama SEC 4-0 11-1 +26.0 2 2 +15.6 1 -10.4 8 +17.5 2 5.72 44
Michigan B10 4-0 10-2 +24.4 3 3 +12.0 6 -12.3 5 +15.6 4 10.92 4
Texas B12 3-1 9-3 +21.2 4 9 +15.3 3 -6.3 36 +12.5 12 7.40 23
OhioState B10 3-1 8-4 +21.1 5 4 +15.6 2 -5.9 44 +12.9 11 9.84 6
Clemson ACC 2-2 8-4 +20.1 6 5 +2.4 61 -17.8 1 +7.6 36 5.05 52
Oklahoma B12 4-0 10-2 +19.2 7 8 +9.3 12 -9.7 13 +13.4 8 4.80 56
Iowa B10 4-0 10-2 +18.9 8 6 +3.8 44 -14.3 3 +14.3 7 7.64 21
PennState B10 4-0 9-3 +18.5 9 7 +8.1 20 -9.8 11 +15.0 5 11.24 2
Florida SEC 3-1 9-3 +17.5 10 17 +9.3 11 -8.3 20 +10.5 20 4.84 54
NotreDame Ind 4-0 10-2 +17.5 11 22 +9.0 13 -7.6 27 +16.3 3 7.31 25
Oregon P12 4-0 10-2 +16.8 12 12 +8.5 17 -7.7 26 +14.3 6 4.81 55
Auburn SEC 3-1 7-5 +16.4 13 10 +8.8 16 -8.0 22 +7.8 33 8.30 16
UCLA P12 3-1 9-3 +15.5 14 21 +10.3 10 -5.4 50 +9.9 22 6.93 27
Arkansas SEC 4-0 8-4 +15.5 15 24 +6.6 27 -8.3 19 +13.3 10 8.06 20
Cincinnati Amer 3-0 10-2 +15.2 16 15 +6.9 24 -7.9 24 +11.7 13 -0.77 89
BoiseState MWC 2-2 8-4 +15.2 17 26 +6.6 28 -8.8 15 +7.8 32 3.49 65
LSU SEC 3-1 7-5 +14.7 18 19 +8.4 19 -6.1 40 +10.8 18 9.05 10
TexasAM SEC 3-1 8-4 +14.6 19 11 +0.1 86 -13.8 4 +10.7 19 5.10 50
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 20 +11.8 8 -3.1 73 +8.2 31 6.67 31
IowaState B12 2-2 7-5 +14.3 21 18 +6.1 31 -8.7 16 +5.3 56 8.08 19
Pittsburgh ACC 3-1 8-4 +13.9 22 54 +12.1 5 -2.6 76 +4.9 58 4.25 60
WakeForest ACC 4-0 9-3 +13.7 23 38 +6.8 26 -7.1 30 +7.4 38 3.91 63
Wisconsin B10 1-2 6-6 +13.3 24 13 +1.6 70 -11.6 6 +6.9 42 11.04 3
Rutgers B10 3-1 7-5 +13.1 25 39 +5.0 37 -8.4 18 +5.8 50 8.25 18
OregonState P12 3-1 8-4 +13.0 26 55 +8.8 15 -4.4 62 +7.1 41 5.05 51
WestVirginia B12 2-2 7-5 +12.9 27 27 +4.8 38 -8.6 17 +4.4 60 6.47 36
NorthCarolinaState ACC 3-1 8-4 +12.7 28 36 +2.3 62 -10.4 9 +6.6 45 5.56 46
MichiganState B10 4-0 8-4 +12.6 29 34 +5.9 32 -6.2 38 +11.4 16 10.11 5
CoastalCarolina Sun 4-0 11-1 +12.4 30 44 +6.9 25 -5.3 51 +9.2 25 -5.93 130
Maryland B10 4-0 7-5 +12.4 31 37 +4.0 42 -8.0 23 +9.5 24 8.29 17
FresnoState MWC 4-1 9-3 +12.1 32 23 +8.5 18 -3.9 67 +6.6 46 -1.03 94
CentralFlorida Amer 2-1 9-3 +12.0 33 29 +12.0 7 -0.4 88 +6.2 48 -1.81 102
Baylor B12 4-0 8-4 +11.8 34 33 +3.5 47 -8.1 21 +8.6 29 4.12 62
NorthCarolina ACC 2-2 7-5 +11.8 35 14 +11.0 9 -1.8 82 +3.2 69 6.38 37
SMU Amer 4-0 9-3 +11.7 36 49 +8.9 14 -2.2 79 +11.6 15 0.12 83
Purdue B10 3-1 7-5 +11.0 37 41 +1.0 75 -9.8 12 +6.8 44 8.60 12
Miami ACC 2-2 7-5 +10.9 38 57 +5.2 35 -5.7 47 +7.1 40 6.50 35
WesternMichigan MAC 3-1 9-3 +10.7 39 61 +6.2 30 -3.9 66 +10.8 17 1.99 76
ArizonaState P12 3-1 8-4 +10.7 40 42 +3.2 49 -7.6 28 +5.5 55 2.07 75
USC P12 2-2 7-5 +10.6 41 16 +7.5 22 -3.4 72 +5.6 52 6.51 34
Nebraska B10 2-3 5-7 +10.2 42 46 +0.4 81 -10.7 7 -0.8 90 8.88 11
TCU B12 2-1 6-6 +10.2 43 25 +5.3 34 -4.9 57 +6.0 49 6.71 30
KansasState B12 3-1 7-5 +10.0 44 30 +1.6 69 -7.8 25 +8.8 28 7.53 22
BostonCollege ACC 4-0 8-4 +9.6 45 43 +4.0 43 -5.1 53 +8.8 27 2.89 68
BYU Ind 4-0 9-3 +9.4 46 31 +2.4 59 -6.0 43 +11.7 14 1.36 78
Washington P12 2-2 6-6 +9.4 47 32 -0.5 89 -10.0 10 +4.0 65 5.52 47
UAB CUSA 3-1 9-3 +9.4 48 60 +1.6 71 -7.1 31 +9.7 23 0.59 82
VirginiaTech ACC 3-1 7-5 +9.1 49 35 -0.7 90 -9.7 14 +5.5 54 7.07 26
Utah P12 2-2 6-6 +9.1 50 40 +3.0 52 -6.3 37 +4.2 64 5.20 48
AppalachianState Sun 3-1 9-3 +9.0 51 48 +2.1 64 -6.6 34 +6.8 43 -2.16 106
Liberty Ind 3-1 8-4 +9.0 52 45 +3.4 48 -5.8 46 +4.5 59 -1.88 103
MississippiState SEC 2-2 6-6 +8.8 53 53 +2.1 63 -6.7 33 +5.1 57 8.59 13
Indiana B10 2-2 5-7 +8.5 54 47 +4.6 39 -3.8 68 +6.2 47 11.91 1
GeorgiaTech ACC 2-2 5-7 +8.2 55 80 +2.4 60 -6.8 32 -0.7 87 9.65 7
OklahomaState B12 4-0 7-5 +8.1 56 66 +0.2 84 -6.4 35 +13.4 9 7.32 24
Army Ind 4-0 9-3 +8.0 57 68 +2.6 57 -5.0 56 +7.7 34 -3.16 115
LouisianaLafayette Sun 3-1 9-3 +7.7 58 51 +3.1 51 -4.0 65 +8.2 30 -2.26 109
Syracuse ACC 3-1 6-6 +7.1 59 70 +1.1 74 -6.1 41 +3.4 66 6.18 40
Minnesota B10 2-2 5-7 +6.6 60 28 +1.9 68 -5.0 55 +2.1 75 6.93 28
Houston Amer 3-1 8-4 +6.6 61 56 +2.8 55 -4.1 64 +2.5 73 -5.61 129
Memphis Amer 3-1 8-4 +6.5 62 59 +7.5 21 +1.5 98 +7.6 37 0.82 79
Kentucky SEC 4-0 8-4 +6.4 63 78 +0.2 83 -5.2 52 +10.1 21 2.80 69
Stanford P12 2-2 5-7 +6.4 64 50 +2.0 67 -4.1 63 +5.7 51 8.44 14
Marshall CUSA 2-2 8-4 +6.4 65 65 +4.2 41 -3.0 74 -0.7 88 -4.56 124
Louisville ACC 3-1 6-6 +6.2 66 74 +2.7 56 -3.5 71 +4.2 63 6.66 32
Missouri SEC 2-2 6-6 +6.1 67 73 +6.9 23 +0.5 93 +2.5 74 4.78 57
Virginia ACC 2-2 5-7 +6.0 68 52 +5.1 36 -1.6 83 -0.8 89 6.35 38
Buffalo MAC 2-2 8-4 +5.9 69 64 +4.3 40 -2.2 78 +0.0 82 -4.77 125
Toledo MAC 2-2 8-4 +5.7 70 77 +0.3 82 -5.6 49 +1.9 77 -5.12 127
SanDiegoState MWC 4-0 9-3 +5.7 71 58 -1.0 92 -6.1 42 +7.2 39 -2.65 112
UTSA CUSA 4-0 10-2 +5.7 72 79 +0.1 85 -4.6 60 +9.2 26 -6.76 131
Nevada MWC 2-1 8-4 +5.7 73 69 +1.5 72 -3.8 69 +5.5 53 -0.84 91
Tennessee SEC 2-2 6-6 +5.5 74 72 +1.5 73 -4.6 61 -0.5 84 4.46 58
AirForce MWC 3-1 8-4 +5.4 75 84 +0.8 79 -4.7 59 +2.7 71 -0.93 93
California P12 1-3 5-7 +4.9 76 75 +3.2 50 -2.8 75 -3.6 104 4.93 53
TexasTech B12 3-1 6-6 +4.3 77 63 +6.4 29 +2.4 105 +4.3 61 5.69 45
SouthCarolina SEC 2-2 5-7 +4.2 78 76 -2.1 98 -6.2 39 +3.2 67 6.31 39
Wyoming MWC 4-0 8-4 +4.1 79 62 +0.9 76 -2.3 77 +7.6 35 -1.70 101
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 2-2 7-5 +2.5 80 71 -2.5 100 -5.1 54 +1.2 78 -2.68 113
Duke ACC 3-1 5-7 +2.3 81 93 +3.8 45 +1.8 102 +3.2 68 4.23 61
EasternMichigan MAC 3-1 8-4 +2.2 82 94 +2.8 54 +0.7 94 +2.1 76 -3.85 122
Northwestern B10 2-2 4-8 +1.8 83 96 -3.7 105 -5.8 45 -0.5 86 6.16 41
UtahState MWC 3-1 8-4 +1.8 84 81 +2.9 53 +1.6 100 +4.3 62 -3.06 114
Troy Sun 2-2 6-6 +1.8 85 67 -3.5 102 -5.6 48 -1.3 94 -3.23 116
Tulane Amer 1-3 4-8 +1.4 86 83 +5.7 33 +3.8 116 -2.2 99 2.68 70
Tulsa Amer 1-3 5-7 +1.4 87 87 -2.0 96 -3.6 70 -0.9 91 2.37 72
CentralMichigan MAC 2-2 6-6 +1.3 88 86 +0.9 78 -0.6 87 -0.5 85 -0.89 92
LouisianaTech CUSA 2-2 6-6 +0.6 89 92 +2.5 58 +1.9 103 -0.0 83 -1.50 98
SanJoseState MWC 2-2 6-6 +0.5 90 82 -7.2 119 -7.2 29 +3.0 70 -1.57 99
Illinois B10 1-4 3-9 +0.2 91 98 -0.8 91 -1.9 81 -5.4 114 9.47 8
WesternKentucky CUSA 1-2 6-6 -0.0 92 99 +2.1 65 +1.2 96 -5.2 112 -1.41 95
NorthernIllinois MAC 2-2 6-6 -0.6 93 102 +2.1 66 +2.9 110 +1.1 80 2.26 73
FloridaState ACC 0-4 2-10 -0.6 94 95 +0.9 77 +0.4 92 -6.7 119 8.31 15
MiamiOH MAC 1-3 6-6 -1.0 95 90 -2.1 97 -1.2 85 -1.4 95 -3.28 118
Colorado P12 1-3 3-9 -1.0 96 85 -5.4 112 -4.7 58 -3.1 102 6.81 29
WashingtonState P12 1-3 3-9 -1.6 97 91 -1.7 94 -0.7 86 -4.5 107 5.17 49
BallState MAC 1-3 4-8 -1.7 98 88 -1.8 95 +0.3 89 +1.1 79 2.53 71
SouthAlabama Sun 3-0 7-5 -2.3 99 101 -4.9 110 -2.0 80 +2.6 72 -3.69 121
KentState MAC 1-3 5-7 -2.6 100 97 +0.1 87 +2.7 108 -1.4 96 -2.20 107
ColoradoState MWC 1-3 4-8 -2.7 101 104 -3.6 104 -1.6 84 -5.2 113 1.91 77
MiddleTennessee CUSA 1-3 5-7 -3.1 102 100 +0.5 80 +3.1 112 -4.9 109 -3.58 120
EastCarolina Amer 2-2 5-7 -3.4 103 89 -0.1 88 +3.4 114 -1.5 98 0.67 80
Charlotte CUSA 3-1 7-5 -3.8 104 107 -2.7 101 +1.6 99 +0.1 81 -4.39 123
Hawaii MWC 2-3 5-8 -4.4 105 105 -1.2 93 +3.1 113 -3.1 101 -1.96 104
GeorgiaState Sun 1-3 4-8 -4.6 106 108 -2.2 99 +2.8 109 -1.1 93 2.25 74
ArkansasState Sun 1-3 4-8 -4.8 107 103 +3.8 46 +8.4 126 -4.6 108 -0.16 85
Arizona P12 0-4 2-10 -6.1 108 109 -5.2 111 +0.4 91 -6.7 120 5.96 42
FIU CUSA 1-3 4-8 -7.3 109 110 -3.9 106 +2.6 106 -9.7 125 -5.03 126
SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-3 4-8 -7.3 110 106 -5.6 113 +1.5 97 -5.6 117 -2.44 111
Temple Amer 2-2 4-8 -8.1 111 116 -4.7 107 +3.8 117 -2.5 100 -0.79 90
OldDominion CUSA 1-3 4-8 -8.2 112 118 -3.6 103 +4.0 119 -9.2 124 -1.70 100
NorthTexas CUSA 1-3 4-8 -8.3 113 113 -6.2 115 +2.0 104 -5.5 116 -1.44 97
Navy Amer 0-3 2-10 -9.0 114 117 -8.1 124 +0.3 90 -8.2 122 6.58 33
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 1-3 3-9 -9.2 115 115 -6.9 118 +2.6 107 -3.5 103 0.64 81
NewMexico MWC 2-2 4-8 -9.5 116 111 -8.0 123 +1.7 101 -4.4 106 -1.42 96
SouthFlorida Amer 1-3 3-9 -9.8 117 121 -4.8 108 +5.3 121 -4.3 105 3.15 66
UTEP CUSA 3-1 6-6 -10.1 118 123 -7.8 122 +3.0 111 -1.0 92 -5.31 128
LouisianaMonroe Sun 2-1 4-8 -10.5 119 125 -7.4 120 +3.9 118 -1.4 97 0.01 84
Kansas B12 1-3 2-10 -11.0 120 119 -4.8 109 +6.6 125 -5.0 110 9.31 9
TexasState Sun 1-3 3-9 -11.8 121 112 -5.7 114 +5.9 123 -8.4 123 -3.25 117
UNLV MWC 0-4 2-10 -12.0 122 124 -7.6 121 +3.7 115 -10.8 128 3.14 67
BowlingGreen MAC 2-2 4-8 -12.3 123 128 -11.6 131 +0.8 95 -5.4 115 -3.41 119
Ohio MAC 0-4 2-10 -12.4 124 114 -6.7 117 +5.3 122 -9.9 127 -2.38 110
Rice CUSA 1-3 3-9 -14.0 125 122 -9.6 127 +4.9 120 -5.0 111 -0.67 88
Vanderbilt SEC 1-3 2-10 -14.6 126 120 -8.8 126 +6.3 124 -6.1 118 4.36 59
Akron MAC 1-3 2-10 -17.4 127 126 -8.4 125 +9.7 127 -6.8 121 -0.20 86
Massachusetts Ind 0-4 3-9 -17.5 128 127 -6.7 116 +11.1 129 -9.9 126 -2.25 108
Connecticut Ind 0-5 1-11 -20.6 129 131 -9.9 128 +10.8 128 -12.4 130 -0.61 87
FCS Z_FCS 10-96 11-106 -22.2 130 130 -11.1 130 +11.5 130 -11.3 129 3.51 64
NewMexicoState Ind 1-4 2-10 -22.5 131 129 -10.6 129 +11.9 131 -14.5 131 -2.13 105

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Michigan B10 4-0 10-2 +24.4 3 3 +12.0 6 -12.3 5 +15.6 4 10.92 4
OhioState B10 3-1 8-4 +21.1 5 4 +15.6 2 -5.9 44 +12.9 11 9.84 6
Iowa B10 4-0 10-2 +18.9 8 6 +3.8 44 -14.3 3 +14.3 7 7.64 21
PennState B10 4-0 9-3 +18.5 9 7 +8.1 20 -9.8 11 +15.0 5 11.24 2
Wisconsin B10 1-2 6-6 +13.3 24 13 +1.6 70 -11.6 6 +6.9 42 11.04 3
Rutgers B10 3-1 7-5 +13.1 25 39 +5.0 37 -8.4 18 +5.8 50 8.25 18
MichiganState B10 4-0 8-4 +12.6 29 34 +5.9 32 -6.2 38 +11.4 16 10.11 5
Maryland B10 4-0 7-5 +12.4 31 37 +4.0 42 -8.0 23 +9.5 24 8.29 17
Purdue B10 3-1 7-5 +11.0 37 41 +1.0 75 -9.8 12 +6.8 44 8.60 12
Nebraska B10 2-3 5-7 +10.2 42 46 +0.4 81 -10.7 7 -0.8 90 8.88 11
Indiana B10 2-2 5-7 +8.5 54 47 +4.6 39 -3.8 68 +6.2 47 11.91 1
Minnesota B10 2-2 5-7 +6.6 60 28 +1.9 68 -5.0 55 +2.1 75 6.93 28
Northwestern B10 2-2 4-8 +1.8 83 96 -3.7 105 -5.8 45 -0.5 86 6.16 41
Illinois B10 1-4 3-9 +0.2 91 98 -0.8 91 -1.9 81 -5.4 114 9.47 8

Was a little taken aback by Texas here, but they've pasted pretty much everybody besides Arkansas. Probably being boosted by preseason projections as well.

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Georgia SEC 4-0 11-1 +31.5 1 1 +15.2 4 -16.4 2 +18.8 1 0.45 1
Alabama SEC 4-0 11-1 +26.0 2 2 +15.6 1 -10.4 8 +17.5 2 0.21 2
CoastalCarolina Sun 4-0 11-1 +12.4 30 44 +6.9 25 -5.3 51 +9.2 25 0.20 3
Michigan B10 4-0 10-2 +24.4 3 3 +12.0 6 -12.3 5 +15.6 4 0.10 4
NotreDame Ind 4-0 10-2 +17.5 11 22 +9.0 13 -7.6 27 +16.3 3 0.08 5
Cincinnati Amer 3-0 10-2 +15.2 16 15 +6.9 24 -7.9 24 +11.7 13 0.07 6
UTSA CUSA 4-0 10-2 +5.7 72 79 +0.1 85 -4.6 60 +9.2 26 0.07 7
Iowa B10 4-0 10-2 +18.9 8 6 +3.8 44 -14.3 3 +14.3 7 0.07 8
Oklahoma B12 4-0 10-2 +19.2 7 8 +9.3 12 -9.7 13 +13.4 8 0.06 9
Oregon P12 4-0 10-2 +16.8 12 12 +8.5 17 -7.7 26 +14.3 6 0.06 10
SMU Amer 4-0 9-3 +11.7 36 49 +8.9 14 -2.2 79 +11.6 15 0.03 11
Army Ind 4-0 9-3 +8.0 57 68 +2.6 57 -5.0 56 +7.7 34 0.02 12
BYU Ind 4-0 9-3 +9.4 46 31 +2.4 59 -6.0 43 +11.7 14 0.02 13
PennState B10 4-0 9-3 +18.5 9 7 +8.1 20 -9.8 11 +15.0 5 0.01 14
WakeForest ACC 4-0 9-3 +13.7 23 38 +6.8 26 -7.1 30 +7.4 38 0.01 15
SanDiegoState MWC 4-0 9-3 +5.7 71 58 -1.0 92 -6.1 42 +7.2 39 0.01 16
Baylor B12 4-0 8-4 +11.8 34 33 +3.5 47 -8.1 21 +8.6 29 0.00 17
Wyoming MWC 4-0 8-4 +4.1 79 62 +0.9 76 -2.3 77 +7.6 35 0.00 18
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 20 +11.8 8 -3.1 73 +8.2 31 0.00 19
BostonCollege ACC 4-0 8-4 +9.6 45 43 +4.0 43 -5.1 53 +8.8 27 0.00 20
Arkansas SEC 4-0 8-4 +15.5 15 24 +6.6 27 -8.3 19 +13.3 10 0.00 21
MichiganState B10 4-0 8-4 +12.6 29 34 +5.9 32 -6.2 38 +11.4 16 0.00 22
Maryland B10 4-0 7-5 +12.4 31 37 +4.0 42 -8.0 23 +9.5 24 0.00 23
OklahomaState B12 4-0 7-5 +8.1 56 66 +0.2 84 -6.4 35 +13.4 9 0.00 24
Kentucky SEC 4-0 8-4 +6.4 63 78 +0.2 83 -5.2 52 +10.1 21 0.00 25
SouthAlabama Sun 3-0 7-5 -2.3 99 101 -4.9 110 -2.0 80 +2.6 72 0.00 26

Man, how fricking terrible is UTSA's schedule?

(...checking table above...)

Ah, right. Pretty terrible!

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Arizona P12 0-4 2-10 -6.1 108 109 -5.2 111 +0.4 91 -6.7 120 0.16 1
Navy Amer 0-3 2-10 -9.0 114 117 -8.1 124 +0.3 90 -8.2 122 0.14 2
UNLV MWC 0-4 2-10 -12.0 122 124 -7.6 121 +3.7 115 -10.8 128 0.14 3
Connecticut Ind 0-5 1-11 -20.6 129 131 -9.9 128 +10.8 128 -12.4 130 0.14 4
Ohio MAC 0-4 2-10 -12.4 124 114 -6.7 117 +5.3 122 -9.9 127 0.06 5
FloridaState ACC 0-4 2-10 -0.6 94 95 +0.9 77 +0.4 92 -6.7 119 0.02 6
Massachusetts Ind 0-4 3-9 -17.5 128 127 -6.7 116 +11.1 129 -9.9 126 0.01 7

Hot dang, P5 teams up in this jazz. Book your tickets now:

Oct 16th - AZ @ Colorado

Nov 19th - AZ @ Wazzu

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1 Loss rk
Georgia SEC 4-0 11-1 +31.5 1 1 +15.2 4 -16.4 2 +18.8 1 0.84 1
Alabama SEC 4-0 11-1 +26.0 2 2 +15.6 1 -10.4 8 +17.5 2 0.58 3
Michigan B10 4-0 10-2 +24.4 3 3 +12.0 6 -12.3 5 +15.6 4 0.37 4
NotreDame Ind 4-0 10-2 +17.5 11 22 +9.0 13 -7.6 27 +16.3 3 0.34 5
Iowa B10 4-0 10-2 +18.9 8 6 +3.8 44 -14.3 3 +14.3 7 0.29 8
Oklahoma B12 4-0 10-2 +19.2 7 8 +9.3 12 -9.7 13 +13.4 8 0.28 9
Oregon P12 4-0 10-2 +16.8 12 12 +8.5 17 -7.7 26 +14.3 6 0.28 10
Army Ind 4-0 9-3 +8.0 57 68 +2.6 57 -5.0 56 +7.7 34 0.12 12
BYU Ind 4-0 9-3 +9.4 46 31 +2.4 59 -6.0 43 +11.7 14 0.11 13
PennState B10 4-0 9-3 +18.5 9 7 +8.1 20 -9.8 11 +15.0 5 0.09 14
WakeForest ACC 4-0 9-3 +13.7 23 38 +6.8 26 -7.1 30 +7.4 38 0.08 17
Texas B12 3-1 9-3 +21.2 4 9 +15.3 3 -6.3 36 +12.5 12 0.07 19
UCLA P12 3-1 9-3 +15.5 14 21 +10.3 10 -5.4 50 +9.9 22 0.05 23
OhioState B10 3-1 8-4 +21.1 5 4 +15.6 2 -5.9 44 +12.9 11 0.04 27
Baylor B12 4-0 8-4 +11.8 34 33 +3.5 47 -8.1 21 +8.6 29 0.04 28
Mississippi SEC 3-0 8-4 +14.5 20 20 +11.8 8 -3.1 73 +8.2 31 0.04 29
Florida SEC 3-1 9-3 +17.5 10 17 +9.3 11 -8.3 20 +10.5 20 0.03 30
BostonCollege ACC 4-0 8-4 +9.6 45 43 +4.0 43 -5.1 53 +8.8 27 0.03 31
OregonState P12 3-1 8-4 +13.0 26 55 +8.8 15 -4.4 62 +7.1 41 0.03 32
Liberty Ind 3-1 8-4 +9.0 52 45 +3.4 48 -5.8 46 +4.5 59 0.03 33
Arkansas SEC 4-0 8-4 +15.5 15 24 +6.6 27 -8.3 19 +13.3 10 0.02 34
NorthCarolinaState ACC 3-1 8-4 +12.7 28 36 +2.3 62 -10.4 9 +6.6 45 0.02 36
Pittsburgh ACC 3-1 8-4 +13.9 22 54 +12.1 5 -2.6 76 +4.9 58 0.02 37
MichiganState B10 4-0 8-4 +12.6 29 34 +5.9 32 -6.2 38 +11.4 16 0.02 38
Kentucky SEC 4-0 8-4 +6.4 63 78 +0.2 83 -5.2 52 +10.1 21 0.01 40
TexasAM SEC 3-1 8-4 +14.6 19 11 +0.1 86 -13.8 4 +10.7 19 0.01 41
Maryland B10 4-0 7-5 +12.4 31 37 +4.0 42 -8.0 23 +9.5 24 0.01 42
ArizonaState P12 3-1 8-4 +10.7 40 42 +3.2 49 -7.6 28 +5.5 55 0.01 44
OklahomaState B12 4-0 7-5 +8.1 56 66 +0.2 84 -6.4 35 +13.4 9 0.01 45
Rutgers B10 3-1 7-5 +13.1 25 39 +5.0 37 -8.4 18 +5.8 50 0.01 46
LSU SEC 3-1 7-5 +14.7 18 19 +8.4 19 -6.1 40 +10.8 18 0.00 49
VirginiaTech ACC 3-1 7-5 +9.1 49 35 -0.7 90 -9.7 14 +5.5 54 0.00 51
Auburn SEC 3-1 7-5 +16.4 13 10 +8.8 16 -8.0 22 +7.8 33 0.00 52
KansasState B12 3-1 7-5 +10.0 44 30 +1.6 69 -7.8 25 +8.8 28 0.00 53
Purdue B10 3-1 7-5 +11.0 37 41 +1.0 75 -9.8 12 +6.8 44 0.00 54
Louisville ACC 3-1 6-6 +6.2 66 74 +2.7 56 -3.5 71 +4.2 63 0.00 56
TCU B12 2-1 6-6 +10.2 43 25 +5.3 34 -4.9 57 +6.0 49 0.00 57
Syracuse ACC 3-1 6-6 +7.1 59 70 +1.1 74 -6.1 41 +3.4 66 0.00 58
TexasTech B12 3-1 6-6 +4.3 77 63 +6.4 29 +2.4 105 +4.3 61 0.00 59
Duke ACC 3-1 5-7 +2.3 81 93 +3.8 45 +1.8 102 +3.2 68 0.00 60

#PlayoffArmy, except I don't want Wisconsin to lose to Army, so...

Don't play military schools, y'all.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
OklahomaState B12 4-0 7-5 +8.1 56 66 +0.2 84 -6.4 35 +13.4 9 1.21 1
Kentucky SEC 4-0 8-4 +6.4 63 78 +0.2 83 -5.2 52 +10.1 21 0.88 2
BYU Ind 4-0 9-3 +9.4 46 31 +2.4 59 -6.0 43 +11.7 14 0.82 5
NotreDame Ind 4-0 10-2 +17.5 11 22 +9.0 13 -7.6 27 +16.3 3 0.71 9
SMU Amer 4-0 9-3 +11.7 36 49 +8.9 14 -2.2 79 +11.6 15 0.58 12

[insert comments as appropriate]

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 1-3 2-10 -14.6 126 120 -8.8 126 +6.3 124 -6.1 118 4.36 59
Kansas B12 1-3 2-10 -11.0 120 119 -4.8 109 +6.6 125 -5.0 110 9.31 9
Arizona P12 0-4 2-10 -6.1 108 109 -5.2 111 +0.4 91 -6.7 120 5.96 42
WashingtonState P12 1-3 3-9 -1.6 97 91 -1.7 94 -0.7 86 -4.5 107 5.17 49
Colorado P12 1-3 3-9 -1.0 96 85 -5.4 112 -4.7 58 -3.1 102 6.81 29
FloridaState ACC 0-4 2-10 -0.6 94 95 +0.9 77 +0.4 92 -6.7 119 8.31 15
Illinois B10 1-4 3-9 +0.2 91 98 -0.8 91 -1.9 81 -5.4 114 9.47 8
Northwestern B10 2-2 4-8 +1.8 83 96 -3.7 105 -5.8 45 -0.5 86 6.16 41

BONUS: #UConnWatch

#13397 out of 13866 total teams (3.4%-ile) since 1873

#7213 out of 7454 total teams (3.2%-ile) since 1960

#4778 out of 4939 total teams (3.3%-ile) since 1980

#2617 out of 2708 total teams (3.4%-ile) since 2000

#1468 out of 1523 total teams (3.6%-ile) since 2010

#879 out of 906 total teams (3.0%-ile) since 2015

Unfortunately, a competitive game against Wyoming probably puts them out of the running here. We'll keep an eye on it for the rest of the year. Maybe a #NewMexicoStateWatch?

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #1 Georgia V #126 Vanderbilt W 62 0
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #11 NotreDame N #24 Wisconsin W 41 13
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #55 GeorgiaTech H #35 NorthCarolina W 45 22
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #26 OregonState V #41 USC W 45 27
5 Fri 2021-09-24 #23 WakeForest V #68 Virginia W 37 17

And of the year (so far):

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #1 Georgia H #48 UAB W 56 7
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #2 Alabama N #38 Miami W 44 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #15 Arkansas H #4 Texas W 40 21
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #3 Michigan H #93 NorthernIllinois W 63 10
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #1 Georgia V #126 Vanderbilt W 62 0
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #3 Michigan H #39 WesternMichigan W 47 14
5 Sat 2021-09-25 #11 NotreDame N #24 Wisconsin W 41 13
3 Sat 2021-09-11 #12 Oregon V #5 OhioState W 35 28
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #29 MichiganState V #38 Miami W 38 17
4 Sat 2021-09-18 #47 Washington H #107 ArkansasState W 52 3

I invite you to dig into the great drama of the past week: whether Georgia would score more points than Vandy had yards: https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401282088

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 280.4 over 205 games (still missing one somewhere...), which would rank #22 (out of 49 ratings systems) here: [LINK]

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 2 #13 Auburn V #18 LSU 48% -0.8
Oct 2 #16 Cincinnati V #11 NotreDame 37% -4.7
Oct 1 #31 Maryland H #8 Iowa 39% -4.0
Oct 2 #5 OhioState V #25 Rutgers 65% 5.5
Oct 2 #3 Michigan V #24 Wisconsin 72% 8.5
Oct 2 #34 Baylor V #56 OklahomaState 54% 1.3
Oct 2 #55 GeorgiaTech H #22 Pittsburgh 41% -3.1
Oct 2 #44 KansasState H #7 Oklahoma 32% -6.6
Oct 2 #43 TCU H #4 Texas 28% -8.4
Oct 2 #48 UAB H #52 Liberty 58% 2.8
Oct 2 #2 Alabama H #20 Mississippi 82% 13.7
Oct 2 #69 Buffalo H #39 WesternMichigan 44% -2.3
Oct 2 #40 ArizonaState V #14 UCLA 31% -7.2
Oct 2 #26 OregonState H #47 Washington 66% 5.9
Oct 2 #1 Georgia H #15 Arkansas 88% 18.1
Oct 2 #12 Oregon V #64 Stanford 71% 7.8
Oct 2 #53 MississippiState V #19 TexasAM 29% -8.1
Oct 2 #10 Florida V #63 Kentucky 72% 8.4
Oct 2 #67 Missouri H #74 Tennessee 58% 3.1
Oct 2 #60 Minnesota V #37 Purdue 32% -6.7
Oct 2 #45 BostonCollege V #6 Clemson 19% -12.7
Oct 1 #61 Houston V #87 Tulsa 57% 2.7
Oct 2 #54 Indiana V #9 PennState 20% -12.2
Sep 30 #38 Miami H #68 Virginia 69% 7.2
Oct 2 #82 EasternMichigan V #93 NorthernIllinois 51% 0.3
Oct 1 #46 BYU V #84 UtahState 64% 5.1
Oct 2 #66 Louisville V #23 WakeForest 25% -9.8
Oct 2 #95 MiamiOH H #88 CentralMichigan 51% 0.2
Oct 2 #17 BoiseState H #73 Nevada 79% 11.7
Oct 2 #78 SouthCarolina H #85 Troy 63% 4.8
Oct 2 #94 FloridaState H #59 Syracuse 36% -5.1
Oct 2 #77 TexasTech V #27 WestVirginia 23% -10.9
Oct 2 #103 EastCarolina H #86 Tulane 44% -2.2
Oct 2 #57 Army V #98 BallState 69% 7.1
Oct 2 #96 Colorado H #41 USC 27% -9.0
Oct 2 #58 LouisianaLafayette V #99 SouthAlabama 69% 7.3
Oct 2 #42 Nebraska H #83 Northwestern 77% 10.6
Oct 2 #81 Duke V #35 NorthCarolina 21% -11.8
Oct 2 #65 Marshall V #102 MiddleTennessee 68% 6.9
Oct 2 #76 California H #97 WashingtonState 73% 8.7
Oct 2 #28 NorthCarolinaState H #89 LouisianaTech 83% 14.3
Oct 2 #91 Illinois H #104 Charlotte 67% 6.4
Oct 2 #29 MichiganState H #92 WesternKentucky 84% 14.8
Oct 2 #115 GeorgiaSouthern H #107 ArkansasState 45% -1.9
Oct 2 #51 AppalachianState V #106 GeorgiaState 77% 11.0
Oct 2 #112 OldDominion V #118 UTEP 48% -0.6
Oct 2 #32 FresnoState V #105 Hawaii 82% 13.8
Oct 2 #111 Temple H #62 Memphis 21% -11.9
Oct 2 #75 AirForce V #116 NewMexico 80% 12.2
Oct 2 #109 FIU V #80 FloridaAtlantic 21% -12.1
Oct 2 #125 Rice H #110 SouthernMississippi 39% -4.1
Oct 2 #33 CentralFlorida V #114 Navy 88% 18.1
Oct 2 #127 Akron H #124 Ohio 43% -2.5
Oct 2 #123 BowlingGreen V #100 KentState 21% -12.0
Oct 2 #117 SouthFlorida V #36 SMU 7% -23.5
Oct 2 #72 UTSA H #122 UNLV 90% 19.8
Oct 2 #30 CoastalCarolina H #119 LouisianaMonroe 94% 24.9
Oct 2 #129 Connecticut V #126 Vanderbilt 28% -8.3
Oct 2 #21 IowaState H #120 Kansas 95% 27.2
Oct 2 #128 Massachusetts H #70 Toledo 9% -20.4
Oct 2 #131 NewMexicoState V #90 SanJoseState 6% -24.9

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Oct 1 #31 Maryland H #8 Iowa 39% -4.0
Oct 2 #5 OhioState V #25 Rutgers 65% 5.5
Oct 2 #3 Michigan V #24 Wisconsin 72% 8.5
Oct 2 #60 Minnesota V #37 Purdue 32% -6.7
Oct 2 #54 Indiana V #9 PennState 20% -12.2
Oct 2 #42 Nebraska H #83 Northwestern 77% 10.6
Oct 2 #91 Illinois H #104 Charlotte 67% 6.4
Oct 2 #29 MichiganState H #92 WesternKentucky 84% 14.8

Cincy by 20.