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Week 03? But I thought it was only Week 02? Unfortunately, that is incorrect, the rest of the CFB world has been lying to you as part of some twisted joke.
Wk01 - Illinois play Nebraska
Wk02 - Illinois plays UTSA
Wk03 - Illinois plays Virginia (that's this week)
We use positive integers for counting here, as should be expected.
Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.
THE RANKINGS
Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +29.7 | 1 | 1 | +15.3 | 2 | -14.3 | 3 | +19.2 | 1 | 4.54 | 52 |
| Clemson | ACC | 0-1 | 10-2 | +24.0 | 2 | 2 | +8.5 | 9 | -15.6 | 1 | +13.1 | 6 | 2.92 | 73 |
| OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +23.3 | 3 | 3 | +15.8 | 1 | -7.4 | 18 | +17.5 | 2 | 6.97 | 23 |
| Georgia | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +22.7 | 4 | 5 | +7.5 | 16 | -14.4 | 2 | +17.4 | 3 | 3.98 | 56 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +19.7 | 5 | 4 | +12.2 | 3 | -7.3 | 22 | +14.7 | 4 | 4.36 | 53 |
| Texas | B12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +18.1 | 6 | 8 | +10.5 | 4 | -7.4 | 19 | +12.9 | 7 | 7.40 | 20 |
| Iowa | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +17.1 | 7 | 18 | +6.1 | 24 | -10.9 | 6 | +10.4 | 14 | 6.58 | 30 |
| Auburn | SEC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.9 | 8 | 17 | +8.2 | 10 | -8.8 | 8 | +10.0 | 17 | 7.33 | 21 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +16.9 | 9 | 13 | +5.1 | 30 | -11.2 | 5 | +13.5 | 5 | 5.32 | 47 |
| PennState | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 10 | 15 | +7.1 | 18 | -9.1 | 7 | +11.3 | 11 | 9.54 | 1 |
| USC | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.6 | 11 | 20 | +7.0 | 19 | -8.2 | 12 | +12.5 | 8 | 7.68 | 15 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 1-0 | 10-2 | +15.2 | 12 | 26 | +6.2 | 22 | -8.7 | 9 | +11.1 | 12 | -0.32 | 98 |
| UCLA | P12 | 2-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 13 | 21 | +8.9 | 7 | -6.2 | 31 | +10.2 | 15 | 8.50 | 5 |
| Oregon | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 14 | 12 | +7.9 | 11 | -6.9 | 26 | +11.8 | 10 | 5.77 | 43 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 0-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 15 | 7 | +3.7 | 48 | -11.6 | 4 | +6.6 | 37 | 8.41 | 9 |
| LSU | SEC | 0-1 | 7-5 | +15.0 | 16 | 6 | +9.2 | 6 | -5.8 | 37 | +9.8 | 19 | 7.98 | 10 |
| NotreDame | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.3 | 17 | 14 | +4.9 | 33 | -8.7 | 10 | +12.5 | 9 | 7.84 | 12 |
| Michigan | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.1 | 18 | 30 | +7.8 | 13 | -6.4 | 30 | +8.6 | 25 | 8.46 | 8 |
| IowaState | B12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.0 | 19 | 9 | +4.9 | 32 | -8.7 | 11 | +10.6 | 13 | 7.68 | 14 |
| Miami | ACC | 0-1 | 8-4 | +13.4 | 20 | 10 | +6.1 | 25 | -7.1 | 24 | +9.5 | 20 | 5.92 | 41 |
| Florida | SEC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +13.2 | 21 | 27 | +7.2 | 17 | -5.8 | 39 | +9.9 | 18 | 5.54 | 45 |
| CentralFlorida | Amer | 1-0 | 10-2 | +13.1 | 22 | 25 | +10.5 | 5 | -2.4 | 76 | +10.1 | 16 | -1.31 | 107 |
| Utah | P12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.9 | 23 | 19 | +6.3 | 21 | -6.5 | 29 | +8.6 | 24 | 6.23 | 32 |
| TCU | B12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.5 | 24 | 24 | +4.5 | 36 | -8.0 | 13 | +7.0 | 30 | 5.72 | 44 |
| ArizonaState | P12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.2 | 25 | 16 | +4.4 | 37 | -7.9 | 14 | +6.8 | 33 | 3.71 | 60 |
| BoiseState | MWC | 0-1 | 8-4 | +11.9 | 26 | 22 | +7.8 | 12 | -4.2 | 59 | +7.8 | 27 | 3.32 | 65 |
| NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +11.5 | 27 | 44 | +4.3 | 40 | -7.0 | 25 | +7.7 | 28 | 5.94 | 40 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 1-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 28 | 50 | +3.7 | 47 | -7.6 | 17 | +6.6 | 38 | -2.90 | 126 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 0-1 | 7-5 | +11.1 | 29 | 23 | +5.5 | 27 | -6.1 | 33 | +4.3 | 62 | 5.17 | 48 |
| AppalachianState | Sun | 1-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 30 | 32 | +2.3 | 66 | -7.8 | 15 | +9.0 | 21 | 0.47 | 91 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 31 | 42 | +7.5 | 15 | -3.4 | 65 | +4.8 | 52 | -3.96 | 129 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 32 | 37 | +8.7 | 8 | -2.0 | 83 | +6.6 | 36 | 6.29 | 31 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +9.9 | 33 | 36 | +7.6 | 14 | -2.7 | 72 | +4.9 | 50 | 3.21 | 69 |
| LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 0-1 | 8-4 | +9.7 | 34 | 28 | +4.5 | 35 | -4.8 | 50 | +8.9 | 22 | 0.74 | 89 |
| BYU | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +9.3 | 35 | 34 | +3.5 | 50 | -5.6 | 42 | +6.8 | 31 | 3.69 | 61 |
| Toledo | MAC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +9.0 | 36 | 39 | +5.1 | 29 | -4.0 | 61 | +5.7 | 45 | -3.96 | 130 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 0-1 | 7-5 | +9.0 | 37 | 33 | +5.6 | 26 | -3.6 | 64 | +4.6 | 55 | 6.13 | 35 |
| Washington | P12 | 0-1 | 6-6 | +8.9 | 38 | 11 | +1.1 | 82 | -7.7 | 16 | +5.4 | 48 | 6.11 | 37 |
| FresnoState | MWC | 1-1 | 7-5 | +8.7 | 39 | 35 | +3.5 | 49 | -5.7 | 40 | +2.2 | 75 | 0.53 | 90 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +8.7 | 40 | 46 | +2.7 | 60 | -5.8 | 36 | +6.1 | 41 | 4.85 | 51 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +8.5 | 41 | 53 | +4.4 | 39 | -4.4 | 55 | +3.8 | 66 | 2.03 | 78 |
| Indiana | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +8.2 | 42 | 29 | +1.4 | 77 | -6.7 | 28 | +5.9 | 44 | 9.07 | 2 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +8.2 | 43 | 61 | +2.4 | 63 | -5.9 | 35 | +4.3 | 61 | 3.38 | 63 |
| SMU | Amer | 1-0 | 7-5 | +8.1 | 44 | 58 | +6.7 | 20 | -1.3 | 88 | +5.6 | 46 | 1.75 | 81 |
| KansasState | B12 | 1-0 | 7-5 | +8.0 | 45 | 68 | +2.8 | 58 | -5.0 | 48 | +5.9 | 43 | 6.91 | 25 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 1-0 | 9-3 | +7.9 | 46 | 45 | +4.4 | 38 | -3.3 | 66 | +6.5 | 39 | -2.40 | 124 |
| BallState | MAC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +7.8 | 47 | 48 | +4.0 | 44 | -3.3 | 67 | +8.6 | 26 | 3.30 | 66 |
| Virginia | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +7.6 | 48 | 51 | +3.3 | 55 | -4.6 | 52 | +3.1 | 71 | 3.96 | 57 |
| WestVirginia | B12 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +7.4 | 49 | 38 | +2.3 | 68 | -5.4 | 43 | +3.0 | 72 | 6.82 | 27 |
| Nevada | MWC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +7.4 | 50 | 59 | +2.6 | 61 | -4.1 | 60 | +8.8 | 23 | -0.86 | 103 |
| Purdue | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +7.3 | 51 | 54 | +3.8 | 46 | -3.6 | 62 | +4.0 | 64 | 7.31 | 22 |
| UAB | CUSA | 1-0 | 8-4 | +7.3 | 52 | 69 | +1.1 | 81 | -5.8 | 38 | +6.2 | 40 | 1.80 | 80 |
| TexasTech | B12 | 1-0 | 7-5 | +7.1 | 53 | 76 | +5.0 | 31 | -2.2 | 81 | +4.0 | 63 | 5.02 | 50 |
| Tulane | Amer | 0-1 | 6-6 | +7.1 | 54 | 62 | +6.2 | 23 | -1.4 | 86 | +1.7 | 84 | 2.19 | 77 |
| Memphis | Amer | 1-0 | 8-4 | +7.0 | 55 | 57 | +4.6 | 34 | -2.1 | 82 | +6.8 | 32 | 1.14 | 87 |
| MississippiState | SEC | 1-0 | 6-6 | +7.0 | 56 | 41 | +2.3 | 67 | -4.3 | 58 | +6.8 | 34 | 8.48 | 6 |
| Baylor | B12 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +6.9 | 57 | 52 | +0.1 | 87 | -6.7 | 27 | +4.4 | 58 | 5.06 | 49 |
| Troy | Sun | 1-0 | 8-4 | +6.9 | 58 | 63 | +2.3 | 64 | -4.7 | 51 | +3.2 | 70 | -1.94 | 117 |
| Army | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +6.5 | 59 | 90 | -0.8 | 96 | -7.2 | 23 | +4.5 | 56 | -1.88 | 116 |
| Missouri | SEC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +6.5 | 60 | 65 | +3.4 | 53 | -2.8 | 71 | +5.9 | 42 | 3.84 | 59 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +6.5 | 61 | 83 | +2.7 | 59 | -3.2 | 69 | +7.0 | 29 | 7.42 | 19 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +6.4 | 62 | 82 | +0.0 | 90 | -6.2 | 32 | +4.7 | 53 | 1.21 | 86 |
| California | P12 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +6.2 | 63 | 43 | -0.9 | 97 | -7.3 | 21 | +1.9 | 80 | 5.91 | 42 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 1-0 | 5-7 | +6.2 | 64 | 75 | +3.5 | 51 | -2.6 | 73 | +4.4 | 57 | 8.79 | 4 |
| Maryland | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +6.1 | 65 | 71 | +3.4 | 52 | -2.5 | 74 | +5.5 | 47 | 6.13 | 36 |
| WashingtonState | P12 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +6.0 | 66 | 40 | +4.0 | 42 | -2.4 | 79 | +1.5 | 88 | 5.42 | 46 |
| OklahomaState | B12 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +5.9 | 67 | 31 | +0.4 | 86 | -5.0 | 49 | +6.6 | 35 | 6.73 | 28 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +5.9 | 68 | 93 | +3.9 | 45 | -2.3 | 80 | +2.0 | 79 | 6.18 | 33 |
| Liberty | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +5.8 | 69 | 73 | +3.3 | 54 | -2.4 | 77 | +4.7 | 54 | -1.54 | 112 |
| Colorado | P12 | 1-0 | 5-7 | +5.3 | 70 | 64 | +1.4 | 76 | -3.6 | 63 | +5.0 | 49 | 7.71 | 13 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 1-1 | 4-8 | +5.3 | 71 | 70 | +1.3 | 78 | -4.5 | 53 | +0.1 | 95 | 7.87 | 11 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 0-1 | 5-7 | +5.2 | 72 | 74 | +5.4 | 28 | -0.2 | 95 | +1.4 | 90 | 6.93 | 24 |
| SanDiegoState | MWC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +5.1 | 73 | 49 | -2.5 | 109 | -7.4 | 20 | +3.9 | 65 | -1.18 | 104 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 1-0 | 6-6 | +4.9 | 74 | 89 | -0.2 | 93 | -5.3 | 46 | +2.1 | 78 | 6.00 | 39 |
| Stanford | P12 | 0-1 | 4-8 | +4.6 | 75 | 47 | -1.1 | 100 | -5.4 | 44 | +4.3 | 59 | 8.89 | 3 |
| FloridaAtlantic | CUSA | 0-1 | 7-5 | +4.5 | 76 | 56 | -0.7 | 95 | -5.1 | 47 | +3.2 | 69 | -2.01 | 118 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 1-0 | 6-6 | +4.2 | 77 | 87 | -1.3 | 102 | -5.3 | 45 | +3.0 | 73 | 3.29 | 67 |
| SanJoseState | MWC | 1-1 | 7-5 | +3.7 | 78 | 72 | -1.0 | 98 | -4.3 | 57 | +4.3 | 60 | -1.41 | 110 |
| Wyoming | MWC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +3.7 | 79 | 55 | -2.2 | 107 | -5.9 | 34 | +1.8 | 82 | -0.35 | 99 |
| SouthCarolina | SEC | 1-0 | 5-7 | +3.6 | 80 | 95 | +1.2 | 80 | -2.4 | 78 | +1.8 | 81 | 6.65 | 29 |
| OregonState | P12 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +3.5 | 81 | 78 | +4.0 | 43 | -0.1 | 99 | -1.0 | 101 | 6.87 | 26 |
| Houston | Amer | 0-1 | 7-5 | +3.0 | 82 | 67 | +2.3 | 65 | -1.1 | 91 | -0.5 | 99 | -2.96 | 127 |
| EasternMichigan | MAC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +3.0 | 83 | 85 | +1.7 | 73 | -1.3 | 90 | +1.7 | 85 | -1.18 | 105 |
| CentralMichigan | MAC | 0-1 | 6-6 | +3.0 | 84 | 81 | +1.9 | 70 | -1.3 | 89 | +0.5 | 94 | 2.47 | 75 |
| WesternMichigan | MAC | 0-1 | 6-6 | +2.8 | 85 | 60 | +4.2 | 41 | +1.5 | 107 | +2.7 | 74 | 3.37 | 64 |
| UTSA | CUSA | 1-0 | 8-4 | +2.5 | 86 | 98 | +0.1 | 88 | -1.8 | 84 | +4.8 | 51 | -4.38 | 131 |
| Tulsa | Amer | 0-1 | 5-7 | +2.5 | 87 | 66 | -2.9 | 111 | -5.6 | 41 | +0.0 | 96 | 3.18 | 70 |
| AirForce | MWC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +2.2 | 88 | 86 | -2.2 | 108 | -4.5 | 54 | +1.0 | 92 | -0.15 | 96 |
| Louisville | ACC | 0-1 | 5-7 | +2.2 | 89 | 80 | +3.2 | 56 | +0.5 | 101 | -1.4 | 103 | 6.16 | 34 |
| ArkansasState | Sun | 1-0 | 6-6 | +2.1 | 90 | 99 | +2.9 | 57 | +1.0 | 103 | +2.2 | 76 | 1.42 | 85 |
| LouisianaTech | CUSA | 0-1 | 7-5 | +1.9 | 91 | 97 | +1.8 | 72 | -0.1 | 97 | +1.5 | 89 | -1.33 | 108 |
| UtahState | MWC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +1.9 | 92 | 104 | +0.8 | 83 | -0.8 | 92 | +3.4 | 68 | -1.60 | 113 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +1.9 | 93 | 77 | -2.6 | 110 | -4.4 | 56 | +1.6 | 86 | 4.22 | 54 |
| MiamiOH | MAC | 0-1 | 6-6 | +1.2 | 94 | 79 | +0.1 | 89 | -0.6 | 93 | +3.7 | 67 | 0.40 | 92 |
| NorthernIllinois | MAC | 1-0 | 6-6 | +1.0 | 95 | 102 | -2.0 | 105 | -2.9 | 70 | +1.5 | 87 | 1.58 | 83 |
| FIU | CUSA | 1-0 | 7-5 | +0.9 | 96 | 106 | +1.6 | 75 | +0.3 | 100 | -1.8 | 106 | -2.03 | 119 |
| GeorgiaTech | ACC | 0-1 | 3-9 | +0.8 | 97 | 91 | -0.2 | 92 | -1.4 | 85 | -2.0 | 109 | 8.46 | 7 |
| Ohio | MAC | 0-1 | 6-6 | +0.3 | 98 | 84 | +0.5 | 85 | -0.2 | 96 | -1.7 | 105 | -1.24 | 106 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-1 | 4-8 | +0.2 | 99 | 92 | +2.0 | 69 | +1.7 | 111 | -0.6 | 100 | 7.43 | 18 |
| MiddleTennessee | CUSA | 1-0 | 6-6 | -0.1 | 100 | 107 | +0.7 | 84 | +0.9 | 102 | -0.0 | 97 | -2.71 | 125 |
| KentState | MAC | 0-1 | 5-7 | -0.6 | 101 | 96 | +2.4 | 62 | +3.3 | 118 | +1.1 | 91 | -1.46 | 111 |
| EastCarolina | Amer | 0-1 | 5-7 | -0.7 | 102 | 100 | +1.3 | 79 | +1.7 | 110 | -1.8 | 107 | 1.43 | 84 |
| SouthAlabama | Sun | 1-0 | 6-6 | -0.9 | 103 | 115 | -4.1 | 117 | -3.3 | 68 | -0.4 | 98 | -2.23 | 122 |
| Arizona | P12 | 0-1 | 3-9 | -0.9 | 104 | 105 | -1.1 | 99 | -0.5 | 94 | -2.7 | 112 | 7.56 | 16 |
| GeorgiaSouthern | Sun | 1-0 | 5-7 | -1.6 | 105 | 94 | -3.5 | 113 | -1.4 | 87 | +2.2 | 77 | 2.00 | 79 |
| Hawaii | MWC | 1-1 | 6-7 | -1.7 | 106 | 103 | -0.2 | 91 | +2.0 | 112 | +1.7 | 83 | -2.23 | 121 |
| GeorgiaState | Sun | 0-1 | 4-8 | -2.2 | 107 | 88 | +1.9 | 71 | +4.4 | 121 | +0.5 | 93 | 4.11 | 55 |
| WesternKentucky | CUSA | 1-0 | 5-7 | -2.2 | 108 | 117 | -2.1 | 106 | -0.1 | 98 | -2.6 | 110 | -0.20 | 97 |
| NorthTexas | CUSA | 1-0 | 5-7 | -2.6 | 109 | 108 | +1.6 | 74 | +4.3 | 120 | -1.2 | 102 | 0.02 | 94 |
| Rice | CUSA | 0-1 | 5-7 | -3.1 | 110 | 109 | -5.1 | 121 | -2.5 | 75 | -4.3 | 117 | -1.40 | 109 |
| Duke | ACC | 0-1 | 4-8 | -3.6 | 111 | 112 | -1.6 | 103 | +1.5 | 108 | -5.1 | 120 | 3.21 | 68 |
| ColoradoState | MWC | 0-1 | 4-8 | -3.9 | 112 | 101 | -1.1 | 101 | +2.5 | 115 | -4.3 | 118 | 2.99 | 71 |
| NewMexico | MWC | 1-0 | 5-7 | -4.3 | 113 | 114 | -3.1 | 112 | +1.2 | 104 | -2.8 | 113 | -1.66 | 114 |
| TexasState | Sun | 0-1 | 4-8 | -4.7 | 114 | 116 | -2.0 | 104 | +2.2 | 113 | -6.1 | 122 | -1.70 | 115 |
| Charlotte | CUSA | 1-0 | 6-6 | -5.0 | 115 | 120 | -0.7 | 94 | +4.6 | 122 | -1.9 | 108 | -2.37 | 123 |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-0 | 3-9 | -5.4 | 116 | 118 | -4.1 | 116 | +1.6 | 109 | -1.6 | 104 | 7.53 | 17 |
| SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 0-1 | 4-8 | -5.4 | 117 | 111 | -4.0 | 114 | +1.3 | 105 | -4.0 | 116 | 0.85 | 88 |
| Navy | Amer | 0-1 | 3-9 | -6.3 | 118 | 110 | -5.0 | 119 | +1.4 | 106 | -2.8 | 114 | 6.03 | 38 |
| SouthFlorida | Amer | 0-1 | 3-9 | -7.1 | 119 | 113 | -4.1 | 115 | +3.3 | 119 | -2.7 | 111 | 2.97 | 72 |
| UNLV | MWC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -8.6 | 120 | 122 | -6.0 | 123 | +2.2 | 114 | -7.4 | 124 | 3.53 | 62 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 2-0 | 5-7 | -9.2 | 121 | 123 | -6.8 | 125 | +2.7 | 116 | -3.2 | 115 | -3.72 | 128 |
| OldDominion | CUSA | 0-1 | 3-9 | -10.2 | 122 | 124 | -5.3 | 122 | +4.6 | 123 | -8.0 | 127 | 0.06 | 93 |
| Temple | Amer | 0-1 | 3-9 | -10.3 | 123 | 121 | -5.1 | 120 | +5.4 | 124 | -5.1 | 121 | -0.35 | 100 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -11.2 | 124 | 119 | -8.1 | 128 | +2.9 | 117 | -7.6 | 125 | 2.87 | 74 |
| LouisianaMonroe | Sun | 0-1 | 3-9 | -11.3 | 125 | 125 | -4.5 | 118 | +6.9 | 126 | -6.2 | 123 | 1.63 | 82 |
| Akron | MAC | 0-1 | 3-9 | -12.8 | 126 | 126 | -7.5 | 126 | +5.8 | 125 | -5.0 | 119 | 2.28 | 76 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 0-1 | 3-9 | -16.2 | 127 | 128 | -6.1 | 124 | +10.6 | 131 | -7.7 | 126 | -2.17 | 120 |
| Connecticut | Amer | 0-2 | 2-10 | -16.5 | 128 | 127 | -8.0 | 127 | +8.6 | 129 | -10.2 | 130 | -0.12 | 95 |
| FCS | Z_FCS | 6-33 | 11-106 | -17.4 | 129 | 131 | -10.6 | 130 | +7.1 | 127 | -8.9 | 128 | 3.94 | 58 |
| BowlingGreen | MAC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -17.4 | 130 | 129 | -10.4 | 129 | +7.2 | 128 | -9.6 | 129 | -0.81 | 102 |
| NewMexicoState | Ind | 0-2 | 2-10 | -20.5 | 131 | 130 | -10.7 | 131 | +9.6 | 130 | -14.0 | 131 | -0.41 | 101 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +23.3 | 3 | 3 | +15.8 | 1 | -7.4 | 18 | +17.5 | 2 | 6.97 | 23 |
| Iowa | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +17.1 | 7 | 18 | +6.1 | 24 | -10.9 | 6 | +10.4 | 14 | 6.58 | 30 |
| PennState | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 10 | 15 | +7.1 | 18 | -9.1 | 7 | +11.3 | 11 | 9.54 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 0-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 15 | 7 | +3.7 | 48 | -11.6 | 4 | +6.6 | 37 | 8.41 | 9 |
| Michigan | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.1 | 18 | 30 | +7.8 | 13 | -6.4 | 30 | +8.6 | 25 | 8.46 | 8 |
| Minnesota | B10 | 0-1 | 7-5 | +9.0 | 37 | 33 | +5.6 | 26 | -3.6 | 64 | +4.6 | 55 | 6.13 | 35 |
| Indiana | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +8.2 | 42 | 29 | +1.4 | 77 | -6.7 | 28 | +5.9 | 44 | 9.07 | 2 |
| Purdue | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +7.3 | 51 | 54 | +3.8 | 46 | -3.6 | 62 | +4.0 | 64 | 7.31 | 22 |
| MichiganState | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +6.5 | 61 | 83 | +2.7 | 59 | -3.2 | 69 | +7.0 | 29 | 7.42 | 19 |
| Maryland | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +6.1 | 65 | 71 | +3.4 | 52 | -2.5 | 74 | +5.5 | 47 | 6.13 | 36 |
| Rutgers | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | +5.9 | 68 | 93 | +3.9 | 45 | -2.3 | 80 | +2.0 | 79 | 6.18 | 33 |
| Nebraska | B10 | 1-1 | 4-8 | +5.3 | 71 | 70 | +1.3 | 78 | -4.5 | 53 | +0.1 | 95 | 7.87 | 11 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +1.9 | 93 | 77 | -2.6 | 110 | -4.4 | 56 | +1.6 | 86 | 4.22 | 54 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-1 | 4-8 | +0.2 | 99 | 92 | +2.0 | 69 | +1.7 | 111 | -0.6 | 100 | 7.43 | 18 |
Sanity compells me to assume Iowa will course-correct in due time, but other, more legitimate ratings systems also have the Hawkeyes rated highly, so...
PERFECTION WATCH
The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.
First, the winners:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf W | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +29.7 | 1 | 1 | +15.3 | 2 | -14.3 | 3 | +19.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 |
| Georgia | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +22.7 | 4 | 5 | +7.5 | 16 | -14.4 | 2 | +17.4 | 3 | 0.18 | 2 |
| OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +23.3 | 3 | 3 | +15.8 | 1 | -7.4 | 18 | +17.5 | 2 | 0.14 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +19.7 | 5 | 4 | +12.2 | 3 | -7.3 | 22 | +14.7 | 4 | 0.07 | 4 |
| CentralFlorida | Amer | 1-0 | 10-2 | +13.1 | 22 | 25 | +10.5 | 5 | -2.4 | 76 | +10.1 | 16 | 0.05 | 5 |
| Marshall | CUSA | 1-0 | 9-3 | +11.3 | 28 | 50 | +3.7 | 47 | -7.6 | 17 | +6.6 | 38 | 0.05 | 6 |
| Cincinnati | Amer | 1-0 | 10-2 | +15.2 | 12 | 26 | +6.2 | 22 | -8.7 | 9 | +11.1 | 12 | 0.05 | 7 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 31 | 42 | +7.5 | 15 | -3.4 | 65 | +4.8 | 52 | 0.03 | 8 |
| Iowa | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +17.1 | 7 | 18 | +6.1 | 24 | -10.9 | 6 | +10.4 | 14 | 0.03 | 9 |
| Texas | B12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +18.1 | 6 | 8 | +10.5 | 4 | -7.4 | 19 | +12.9 | 7 | 0.03 | 10 |
| Toledo | MAC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +9.0 | 36 | 39 | +5.1 | 29 | -4.0 | 61 | +5.7 | 45 | 0.02 | 11 |
| USC | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.6 | 11 | 20 | +7.0 | 19 | -8.2 | 12 | +12.5 | 8 | 0.01 | 12 |
| UCLA | P12 | 2-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 13 | 21 | +8.9 | 7 | -6.2 | 31 | +10.2 | 15 | 0.01 | 13 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +16.9 | 9 | 13 | +5.1 | 30 | -11.2 | 5 | +13.5 | 5 | 0.01 | 14 |
| CoastalCarolina | Sun | 1-0 | 9-3 | +7.9 | 46 | 45 | +4.4 | 38 | -3.3 | 66 | +6.5 | 39 | 0.01 | 15 |
| AppalachianState | Sun | 1-0 | 9-3 | +10.6 | 30 | 32 | +2.3 | 66 | -7.8 | 15 | +9.0 | 21 | 0.01 | 16 |
| NotreDame | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.3 | 17 | 14 | +4.9 | 33 | -8.7 | 10 | +12.5 | 9 | 0.01 | 17 |
| Oregon | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 14 | 12 | +7.9 | 11 | -6.9 | 26 | +11.8 | 10 | 0.01 | 18 |
| PennState | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 10 | 15 | +7.1 | 18 | -9.1 | 7 | +11.3 | 11 | 0.01 | 19 |
| Nevada | MWC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +7.4 | 50 | 59 | +2.6 | 61 | -4.1 | 60 | +8.8 | 23 | 0.01 | 20 |
| Troy | Sun | 1-0 | 8-4 | +6.9 | 58 | 63 | +2.3 | 64 | -4.7 | 51 | +3.2 | 70 | 0.01 | 21 |
Obviously, there are more teams that are currently perfect on the season (a whole one game!) so far. Sample is limited to those teams getting 1% or greater chances according to my formulas right now.
Now the more interesting set:
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | Amer | 0-2 | 2-10 | -16.5 | 128 | 127 | -8.0 | 127 | +8.6 | 129 | -10.2 | 130 | 0.09 | 1 |
| NewMexicoState | Ind | 0-2 | 2-10 | -20.5 | 131 | 130 | -10.7 | 131 | +9.6 | 130 | -14.0 | 131 | 0.08 | 2 |
| UNLV | MWC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -8.6 | 120 | 122 | -6.0 | 123 | +2.2 | 114 | -7.4 | 124 | 0.08 | 3 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -11.2 | 124 | 119 | -8.1 | 128 | +2.9 | 117 | -7.6 | 125 | 0.07 | 4 |
| Navy | Amer | 0-1 | 3-9 | -6.3 | 118 | 110 | -5.0 | 119 | +1.4 | 106 | -2.8 | 114 | 0.04 | 5 |
| Akron | MAC | 0-1 | 3-9 | -12.8 | 126 | 126 | -7.5 | 126 | +5.8 | 125 | -5.0 | 119 | 0.02 | 6 |
| BowlingGreen | MAC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -17.4 | 130 | 129 | -10.4 | 129 | +7.2 | 128 | -9.6 | 129 | 0.02 | 7 |
| ColoradoState | MWC | 0-1 | 4-8 | -3.9 | 112 | 101 | -1.1 | 101 | +2.5 | 115 | -4.3 | 118 | 0.01 | 8 |
| Massachusetts | Ind | 0-1 | 3-9 | -16.2 | 127 | 128 | -6.1 | 124 | +10.6 | 131 | -7.7 | 126 | 0.01 | 9 |
| OldDominion | CUSA | 0-1 | 3-9 | -10.2 | 122 | 124 | -5.3 | 122 | +4.6 | 123 | -8.0 | 127 | 0.01 | 10 |
Same story here: sample is limited to those teams getting 1% or greater chances according to my formulas right now. Clearly, we have two teams way ahead of the pack.
PLAYOFF RACE
Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | 1-Loss | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +29.7 | 1 | 1 | +15.3 | 2 | -14.3 | 3 | +19.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 |
| Georgia | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +22.7 | 4 | 5 | +7.5 | 16 | -14.4 | 2 | +17.4 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 |
| OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +23.3 | 3 | 3 | +15.8 | 1 | -7.4 | 18 | +17.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | B12 | 1-0 | 10-2 | +19.7 | 5 | 4 | +12.2 | 3 | -7.3 | 22 | +14.7 | 4 | 0.29 | 4 |
| Clemson | ACC | 0-1 | 10-2 | +24.0 | 2 | 2 | +8.5 | 9 | -15.6 | 1 | +13.1 | 6 | 0.27 | 5 |
| Iowa | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +17.1 | 7 | 18 | +6.1 | 24 | -10.9 | 6 | +10.4 | 14 | 0.16 | 10 |
| Texas | B12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +18.1 | 6 | 8 | +10.5 | 4 | -7.4 | 19 | +12.9 | 7 | 0.15 | 11 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +16.9 | 9 | 13 | +5.1 | 30 | -11.2 | 5 | +13.5 | 5 | 0.09 | 13 |
| USC | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.6 | 11 | 20 | +7.0 | 19 | -8.2 | 12 | +12.5 | 8 | 0.09 | 14 |
| UCLA | P12 | 2-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 13 | 21 | +8.9 | 7 | -6.2 | 31 | +10.2 | 15 | 0.08 | 15 |
| Oregon | P12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | +15.2 | 14 | 12 | +7.9 | 11 | -6.9 | 26 | +11.8 | 10 | 0.07 | 18 |
| NotreDame | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.3 | 17 | 14 | +4.9 | 33 | -8.7 | 10 | +12.5 | 9 | 0.07 | 19 |
| PennState | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.4 | 10 | 15 | +7.1 | 18 | -9.1 | 7 | +11.3 | 11 | 0.06 | 20 |
| Army | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +6.5 | 59 | 90 | -0.8 | 96 | -7.2 | 23 | +4.5 | 56 | 0.05 | 22 |
| ArizonaState | P12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.2 | 25 | 16 | +4.4 | 37 | -7.9 | 14 | +6.8 | 33 | 0.04 | 25 |
| Michigan | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.1 | 18 | 30 | +7.8 | 13 | -6.4 | 30 | +8.6 | 25 | 0.03 | 26 |
| IowaState | B12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.0 | 19 | 9 | +4.9 | 32 | -8.7 | 11 | +10.6 | 13 | 0.03 | 27 |
| Utah | P12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.9 | 23 | 19 | +6.3 | 21 | -6.5 | 29 | +8.6 | 24 | 0.03 | 28 |
| Auburn | SEC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +16.9 | 8 | 17 | +8.2 | 10 | -8.8 | 8 | +10.0 | 17 | 0.03 | 30 |
| Florida | SEC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +13.2 | 21 | 27 | +7.2 | 17 | -5.8 | 39 | +9.9 | 18 | 0.03 | 31 |
| NorthCarolinaState | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +11.5 | 27 | 44 | +4.3 | 40 | -7.0 | 25 | +7.7 | 28 | 0.02 | 34 |
| BYU | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +9.3 | 35 | 34 | +3.5 | 50 | -5.6 | 42 | +6.8 | 31 | 0.02 | 35 |
| Liberty | Ind | 1-0 | 8-4 | +5.8 | 69 | 73 | +3.3 | 54 | -2.4 | 77 | +4.7 | 54 | 0.02 | 36 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +8.7 | 40 | 46 | +2.7 | 60 | -5.8 | 36 | +6.1 | 41 | 0.02 | 37 |
| TCU | B12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | +12.5 | 24 | 24 | +4.5 | 36 | -8.0 | 13 | +7.0 | 30 | 0.02 | 38 |
| Miami | ACC | 0-1 | 8-4 | +13.4 | 20 | 10 | +6.1 | 25 | -7.1 | 24 | +9.5 | 20 | 0.02 | 40 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +8.5 | 41 | 53 | +4.4 | 39 | -4.4 | 55 | +3.8 | 66 | 0.02 | 43 |
| Wisconsin | B10 | 0-1 | 8-4 | +15.1 | 15 | 7 | +3.7 | 48 | -11.6 | 4 | +6.6 | 37 | 0.01 | 46 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +9.9 | 33 | 36 | +7.6 | 14 | -2.7 | 72 | +4.9 | 50 | 0.01 | 47 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +8.2 | 43 | 61 | +2.4 | 63 | -5.9 | 35 | +4.3 | 61 | 0.01 | 48 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +6.4 | 62 | 82 | +0.0 | 90 | -6.2 | 32 | +4.7 | 53 | 0.01 | 51 |
| Mississippi | SEC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +10.6 | 32 | 37 | +8.7 | 8 | -2.0 | 83 | +6.6 | 36 | 0.01 | 52 |
| NorthCarolina | ACC | 0-1 | 7-5 | +11.1 | 29 | 23 | +5.5 | 27 | -6.1 | 33 | +4.3 | 62 | 0.01 | 55 |
| Virginia | ACC | 1-0 | 7-5 | +7.6 | 48 | 51 | +3.3 | 55 | -4.6 | 52 | +3.1 | 71 | 0.01 | 56 |
1% probability for Wisconsin, currently sitting at 0-1! A'ight, I'll take it.
ASSORTED THOUGHTS
A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021
Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Diff | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | MWC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +7.4 | 50 | 59 | +2.6 | 61 | -4.1 | 60 | +8.8 | 23 | 0.68 | 1 |
| NotreDame | ACC | 1-0 | 8-4 | +14.3 | 17 | 14 | +4.9 | 33 | -8.7 | 10 | +12.5 | 9 | 0.53 | 7 |
| LouisianaLafayette | Sun | 0-1 | 8-4 | +9.7 | 34 | 28 | +4.5 | 35 | -4.8 | 50 | +8.9 | 22 | 0.42 | 14 |
| Georgia | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | +22.7 | 4 | 5 | +7.5 | 16 | -14.4 | 2 | +17.4 | 3 | 0.42 | 15 |
| TexasAM | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | +16.9 | 9 | 13 | +5.1 | 30 | -11.2 | 5 | +13.5 | 5 | 0.41 | 16 |
Notre Dame: hello old friend. Nice to see you again. Hopefully, my favorite team will get to ruin your illusion early on.
2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst
There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":
| Team | Conf | Record | PrjRec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0-1 | 2-10 | -11.2 | 124 | 119 | -8.1 | 128 | +2.9 | 117 | -7.6 | 125 | 2.87 | 74 |
| Kansas | B12 | 1-0 | 3-9 | -5.4 | 116 | 118 | -4.1 | 116 | +1.6 | 109 | -1.6 | 104 | 7.53 | 17 |
| Duke | ACC | 0-1 | 4-8 | -3.6 | 111 | 112 | -1.6 | 103 | +1.5 | 108 | -5.1 | 120 | 3.21 | 68 |
| Arizona | P12 | 0-1 | 3-9 | -0.9 | 104 | 105 | -1.1 | 99 | -0.5 | 94 | -2.7 | 112 | 7.56 | 16 |
| Illinois | B10 | 1-1 | 4-8 | +0.2 | 99 | 92 | +2.0 | 69 | +1.7 | 111 | -0.6 | 100 | 7.43 | 18 |
| GeorgiaTech | ACC | 0-1 | 3-9 | +0.8 | 97 | 91 | -0.2 | 92 | -1.4 | 85 | -2.0 | 109 | 8.46 | 7 |
| Northwestern | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +1.9 | 93 | 77 | -2.6 | 110 | -4.4 | 56 | +1.6 | 86 | 4.22 | 54 |
| Louisville | ACC | 0-1 | 5-7 | +2.2 | 89 | 80 | +3.2 | 56 | +0.5 | 101 | -1.4 | 103 | 6.16 | 34 |
| OregonState | P12 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +3.5 | 81 | 78 | +4.0 | 43 | -0.1 | 99 | -1.0 | 101 | 6.87 | 26 |
| SouthCarolina | SEC | 1-0 | 5-7 | +3.6 | 80 | 95 | +1.2 | 80 | -2.4 | 78 | +1.8 | 81 | 6.65 | 29 |
Vanderbilt, Kansas: hello old friends.
III - Best Performance of the Week/Year
Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.
Last week:
| Wk | Day | Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | W/L | PtsO | PtsD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #1 Alabama | N | #20 Miami | W | 44 | 13 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #4 Georgia | N | #2 Clemson | W | 10 | 3 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #28 Marshall | V | #118 Navy | W | 49 | 7 |
| 2 | Thu | 2021-09-02 | #27 NorthCarolinaState | H | #119 SouthFlorida | W | 45 | 0 |
| 2 | Sat | 2021-09-04 | #7 Iowa | H | #42 Indiana | W | 34 | 6 |
As you can see, complete pantsings of terrible opponents can still get you a spot here, although Bama still reigns supreme.
THE PICKINGS
On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 309.5 over 50 games, which would rank #22 (out of 47 ratings systems) here: [LINK]. Although, most of the ratings systems there are 51 game samples, so somehow I'm missing one. Hmmm...
Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | #7 Iowa | V | #19 IowaState | 52% | 0.6 |
| Sep 11 | #35 BYU | H | #23 Utah | 47% | -1.1 |
| Sep 11 | #3 OhioState | H | #14 Oregon | 77% | 10.5 |
| Sep 11 | #27 NorthCarolinaState | V | #56 MississippiState | 56% | 2.0 |
| Sep 11 | #20 Miami | H | #30 AppalachianState | 64% | 5.2 |
| Sep 11 | #71 Nebraska | H | #31 Buffalo | 42% | -2.8 |
| Sep 11 | #43 Pittsburgh | V | #77 Tennessee | 54% | 1.5 |
| Sep 11 | #62 Kentucky | H | #60 Missouri | 57% | 2.4 |
| Sep 11 | #17 NotreDame | H | #36 Toledo | 70% | 7.6 |
| Sep 11 | #74 Syracuse | H | #68 Rutgers | 54% | 1.5 |
| Sep 11 | #18 Michigan | H | #38 Washington | 70% | 7.6 |
| Sep 11 | #69 Liberty | V | #58 Troy | 40% | -3.5 |
| Sep 11 | #6 Texas | V | #64 Arkansas | 74% | 9.3 |
| Sep 11 | #95 NorthernIllinois | H | #79 Wyoming | 50% | -0.1 |
| Sep 11 | #55 Memphis | V | #90 ArkansasState | 57% | 2.4 |
| Sep 11 | #10 PennState | H | #47 BallState | 77% | 11.0 |
| Sep 11 | #24 TCU | H | #63 California | 73% | 8.7 |
| Sep 11 | #102 EastCarolina | H | #80 SouthCarolina | 45% | -1.7 |
| Sep 11 | #70 Colorado | N | #9 TexasAM | 22% | -11.5 |
| Sep 11 | #73 SanDiegoState | V | #104 Arizona | 60% | 3.4 |
| Sep 11 | #87 Tulsa | V | #67 OklahomaState | 34% | -5.8 |
| Sep 11 | #52 UAB | V | #4 Georgia | 12% | -17.7 |
| Sep 11 | #75 Stanford | V | #11 USC | 18% | -13.4 |
| Sep 11 | #82 Houston | V | #110 Rice | 60% | 3.6 |
| Sep 11 | #37 Minnesota | H | #94 MiamiOH | 76% | 10.2 |
| Sep 11 | #15 Wisconsin | H | #83 EasternMichigan | 83% | 14.4 |
| Sep 11 | #48 Virginia | H | #99 Illinois | 75% | 9.8 |
| Sep 11 | #106 Hawaii | V | #81 OregonState | 30% | -7.6 |
| Sep 11 | #40 VirginiaTech | H | #100 MiddleTennessee | 78% | 11.2 |
| Sep 11 | #76 FloridaAtlantic | H | #105 GeorgiaSouthern | 72% | 8.5 |
| Sep 11 | #118 Navy | H | #88 AirForce | 34% | -5.9 |
| Sep 11 | #108 WesternKentucky | V | #59 Army | 22% | -11.1 |
| Sep 11 | #96 FIU | H | #114 TexasState | 71% | 8.0 |
| Sep 11 | #44 SMU | H | #109 NorthTexas | 81% | 13.0 |
| Sep 11 | #29 NorthCarolina | H | #107 GeorgiaState | 85% | 15.7 |
| Sep 11 | #123 Temple | V | #126 Akron | 50% | 0.0 |
| Sep 10 | #116 Kansas | V | #46 CoastalCarolina | 15% | -15.6 |
| Sep 11 | #85 WesternMichigan | H | IllinoisState | 80% | 12.4 |
| Sep 11 | #119 SouthFlorida | H | #21 Florida | 12% | -17.6 |
| Sep 11 | #112 ColoradoState | H | #124 Vanderbilt | 75% | 9.6 |
| Sep 11 | #120 UNLV | V | #25 ArizonaState | 7% | -23.0 |
| Sep 10 | #121 UTEP | V | #26 BoiseState | 7% | -23.3 |
| Sep 11 | #42 Indiana | H | Idaho | 92% | 21.4 |
| Sep 11 | #61 MichiganState | H | Youngstown State | 91% | 20.3 |
| Sep 11 | #130 BowlingGreen | H | #103 SouthAlabama | 17% | -13.9 |
| Sep 10 | #111 Duke | H | North Carolina A&T | 84% | 14.5 |
| Sep 11 | #128 Connecticut | H | #51 Purdue | 9% | -21.1 |
| Sep 11 | #41 BostonCollege | V | #127 Massachusetts | 92% | 22.0 |
| Sep 11 | #97 GeorgiaTech | H | Kennesaw State | 89% | 18.6 |
| Sep 11 | #72 FloridaState | H | Jacksonville State | 92% | 22.2 |
| Sep 11 | #91 LouisianaTech | H | Southeastern Louisiana | 92% | 21.8 |
| Sep 11 | #34 LouisianaLafayette | H | Nicholls State | 95% | 27.1 |
| Sep 10 | #92 UtahState | H | North Dakota | 92% | 22.0 |
| Sep 11 | #45 KansasState | H | SouthernIllinois | 95% | 26.5 |
| Sep 11 | #131 NewMexicoState | V | #113 NewMexico | 11% | -18.5 |
| Sep 11 | #84 CentralMichigan | H | Robert Morris | 93% | 23.6 |
| Sep 11 | #117 SouthernMississippi | H | GramblingState | 91% | 21.2 |
| Sep 11 | #49 WestVirginia | H | Long Island | 97% | 30.5 |
| Sep 11 | #16 LSU | H | McNeeseState | 98% | 36.3 |
| Sep 11 | #50 Nevada | H | IdahoState | 97% | 32.1 |
| Sep 11 | #115 Charlotte | H | Gardner-Webb | 94% | 24.2 |
| Sep 11 | #122 OldDominion | H | Hampton | 92% | 21.3 |
| Sep 11 | #89 Louisville | H | Eastern Kentucky | 97% | 30.1 |
| Sep 11 | #66 WashingtonState | H | Portland State | 98% | 33.9 |
| Sep 11 | #93 Northwestern | H | IndianaState | 97% | 32.0 |
| Sep 11 | #39 FresnoState | H | Cal Poly | 98% | 36.8 |
| Sep 11 | #98 Ohio | H | Duquesne | 97% | 31.3 |
| Sep 11 | #32 Mississippi | H | Austin Peay | 99% | 38.5 |
| Sep 11 | #22 CentralFlorida | H | Bethune-Cookman | 99% | 42.8 |
| Sep 11 | #8 Auburn | H | Alabama State | 99% | 45.6 |
| Sep 11 | #1 Alabama | H | Mercer | 100% | 55.7 |
| Sep 11 | #33 WakeForest | H | Norfolk State | 99% | 42.8 |
| Sep 11 | #53 TexasTech | H | Stephen F. Austin | 99% | 41.7 |
| Sep 11 | #57 Baylor | H | TexasSouthern | 99% | 41.8 |
| Sep 11 | #2 Clemson | H | South Carolina State | 100% | 53.3 |
| Sep 11 | #28 Marshall | H | North Carolina Central | 99% | 45.9 |
| Sep 11 | #65 Maryland | H | Howard | 99% | 44.1 |
| Sep 11 | #86 UTSA | H | Lamar | 99% | 44.0 |
| Sep 11 | #12 Cincinnati | H | Murray State | 100% | 52.7 |
| Sep 11 | #5 Oklahoma | H | WesternCarolina | 100% | 57.9 |
| Sep 11 | #101 KentState | H | VMI | 100% | 50.1 |
| Sep 11 | #54 Tulane | H | Morgan State | 100% | 64.1 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
| Date | Team | H/V | Opponent | WLk | PrjMOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | #7 Iowa | V | #19 IowaState | 52% | 0.6 |
| Sep 11 | #3 OhioState | H | #14 Oregon | 77% | 10.5 |
| Sep 11 | #71 Nebraska | H | #31 Buffalo | 42% | -2.8 |
| Sep 11 | #74 Syracuse | H | #68 Rutgers | 54% | 1.5 |
| Sep 11 | #18 Michigan | H | #38 Washington | 70% | 7.6 |
| Sep 11 | #10 PennState | H | #47 BallState | 77% | 11.0 |
| Sep 11 | #37 Minnesota | H | #94 MiamiOH | 76% | 10.2 |
| Sep 11 | #15 Wisconsin | H | #83 EasternMichigan | 83% | 14.4 |
| Sep 11 | #48 Virginia | H | #99 Illinois | 75% | 9.8 |
| Sep 11 | #42 Indiana | H | Idaho | 92% | 21.4 |
| Sep 11 | #61 MichiganState | H | Youngstown State | 91% | 20.3 |
| Sep 11 | #128 Connecticut | H | #51 Purdue | 9% | -21.1 |
| Sep 11 | #93 Northwestern | H | IndianaState | 97% | 32.0 |
| Sep 11 | #65 Maryland | H | Howard | 99% | 44.1 |
I know it's fun to crap on Nebraska, but seriously: they are not going to lose to Buffalo. If they do, there is a lot wrong in Lincoln.
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