FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: 2021 Week 03

Randy Herkowitz, Detroit Free Press via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Week 03? But I thought it was only Week 02? Unfortunately, that is incorrect, the rest of the CFB world has been lying to you as part of some twisted joke.

Wk01 - Illinois play Nebraska

Wk02 - Illinois plays UTSA

Wk03 - Illinois plays Virginia (that's this week)

We use positive integers for counting here, as should be expected.

Download the full spreadsheet from the Dropbox link here if you want to play around a bit: [LINK (~180 MB)]. Comment below if you have questions. Be fair-warned that I reserve the right to completely change up my ratings at any time. Scores/schedules are taken from Sports-Reference CFB.

THE RANKINGS

Ratings can mostly be interpreted as points above/below average. "Res Rat" is a resume rating based only on win/losses, just converted to a points scale.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Alabama SEC 1-0 11-1 +29.7 1 1 +15.3 2 -14.3 3 +19.2 1 4.54 52
Clemson ACC 0-1 10-2 +24.0 2 2 +8.5 9 -15.6 1 +13.1 6 2.92 73
OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 +23.3 3 3 +15.8 1 -7.4 18 +17.5 2 6.97 23
Georgia SEC 1-0 11-1 +22.7 4 5 +7.5 16 -14.4 2 +17.4 3 3.98 56
Oklahoma B12 1-0 10-2 +19.7 5 4 +12.2 3 -7.3 22 +14.7 4 4.36 53
Texas B12 1-0 9-3 +18.1 6 8 +10.5 4 -7.4 19 +12.9 7 7.40 20
Iowa B10 1-0 9-3 +17.1 7 18 +6.1 24 -10.9 6 +10.4 14 6.58 30
Auburn SEC 1-0 8-4 +16.9 8 17 +8.2 10 -8.8 8 +10.0 17 7.33 21
TexasAM SEC 1-0 9-3 +16.9 9 13 +5.1 30 -11.2 5 +13.5 5 5.32 47
PennState B10 1-0 8-4 +16.4 10 15 +7.1 18 -9.1 7 +11.3 11 9.54 1
USC P12 1-0 9-3 +15.6 11 20 +7.0 19 -8.2 12 +12.5 8 7.68 15
Cincinnati Amer 1-0 10-2 +15.2 12 26 +6.2 22 -8.7 9 +11.1 12 -0.32 98
UCLA P12 2-0 9-3 +15.2 13 21 +8.9 7 -6.2 31 +10.2 15 8.50 5
Oregon P12 1-0 9-3 +15.2 14 12 +7.9 11 -6.9 26 +11.8 10 5.77 43
Wisconsin B10 0-1 8-4 +15.1 15 7 +3.7 48 -11.6 4 +6.6 37 8.41 9
LSU SEC 0-1 7-5 +15.0 16 6 +9.2 6 -5.8 37 +9.8 19 7.98 10
NotreDame ACC 1-0 8-4 +14.3 17 14 +4.9 33 -8.7 10 +12.5 9 7.84 12
Michigan B10 1-0 8-4 +14.1 18 30 +7.8 13 -6.4 30 +8.6 25 8.46 8
IowaState B12 1-0 8-4 +14.0 19 9 +4.9 32 -8.7 11 +10.6 13 7.68 14
Miami ACC 0-1 8-4 +13.4 20 10 +6.1 25 -7.1 24 +9.5 20 5.92 41
Florida SEC 1-0 8-4 +13.2 21 27 +7.2 17 -5.8 39 +9.9 18 5.54 45
CentralFlorida Amer 1-0 10-2 +13.1 22 25 +10.5 5 -2.4 76 +10.1 16 -1.31 107
Utah P12 1-0 8-4 +12.9 23 19 +6.3 21 -6.5 29 +8.6 24 6.23 32
TCU B12 1-0 8-4 +12.5 24 24 +4.5 36 -8.0 13 +7.0 30 5.72 44
ArizonaState P12 1-0 8-4 +12.2 25 16 +4.4 37 -7.9 14 +6.8 33 3.71 60
BoiseState MWC 0-1 8-4 +11.9 26 22 +7.8 12 -4.2 59 +7.8 27 3.32 65
NorthCarolinaState ACC 1-0 8-4 +11.5 27 44 +4.3 40 -7.0 25 +7.7 28 5.94 40
Marshall CUSA 1-0 9-3 +11.3 28 50 +3.7 47 -7.6 17 +6.6 38 -2.90 126
NorthCarolina ACC 0-1 7-5 +11.1 29 23 +5.5 27 -6.1 33 +4.3 62 5.17 48
AppalachianState Sun 1-0 9-3 +10.6 30 32 +2.3 66 -7.8 15 +9.0 21 0.47 91
Buffalo MAC 1-0 9-3 +10.6 31 42 +7.5 15 -3.4 65 +4.8 52 -3.96 129
Mississippi SEC 1-0 7-5 +10.6 32 37 +8.7 8 -2.0 83 +6.6 36 6.29 31
WakeForest ACC 1-0 7-5 +9.9 33 36 +7.6 14 -2.7 72 +4.9 50 3.21 69
LouisianaLafayette Sun 0-1 8-4 +9.7 34 28 +4.5 35 -4.8 50 +8.9 22 0.74 89
BYU Ind 1-0 8-4 +9.3 35 34 +3.5 50 -5.6 42 +6.8 31 3.69 61
Toledo MAC 1-0 9-3 +9.0 36 39 +5.1 29 -4.0 61 +5.7 45 -3.96 130
Minnesota B10 0-1 7-5 +9.0 37 33 +5.6 26 -3.6 64 +4.6 55 6.13 35
Washington P12 0-1 6-6 +8.9 38 11 +1.1 82 -7.7 16 +5.4 48 6.11 37
FresnoState MWC 1-1 7-5 +8.7 39 35 +3.5 49 -5.7 40 +2.2 75 0.53 90
VirginiaTech ACC 1-0 8-4 +8.7 40 46 +2.7 60 -5.8 36 +6.1 41 4.85 51
BostonCollege ACC 1-0 8-4 +8.5 41 53 +4.4 39 -4.4 55 +3.8 66 2.03 78
Indiana B10 0-1 5-7 +8.2 42 29 +1.4 77 -6.7 28 +5.9 44 9.07 2
Pittsburgh ACC 1-0 7-5 +8.2 43 61 +2.4 63 -5.9 35 +4.3 61 3.38 63
SMU Amer 1-0 7-5 +8.1 44 58 +6.7 20 -1.3 88 +5.6 46 1.75 81
KansasState B12 1-0 7-5 +8.0 45 68 +2.8 58 -5.0 48 +5.9 43 6.91 25
CoastalCarolina Sun 1-0 9-3 +7.9 46 45 +4.4 38 -3.3 66 +6.5 39 -2.40 124
BallState MAC 1-0 7-5 +7.8 47 48 +4.0 44 -3.3 67 +8.6 26 3.30 66
Virginia ACC 1-0 7-5 +7.6 48 51 +3.3 55 -4.6 52 +3.1 71 3.96 57
WestVirginia B12 0-1 5-7 +7.4 49 38 +2.3 68 -5.4 43 +3.0 72 6.82 27
Nevada MWC 1-0 8-4 +7.4 50 59 +2.6 61 -4.1 60 +8.8 23 -0.86 103
Purdue B10 1-0 6-6 +7.3 51 54 +3.8 46 -3.6 62 +4.0 64 7.31 22
UAB CUSA 1-0 8-4 +7.3 52 69 +1.1 81 -5.8 38 +6.2 40 1.80 80
TexasTech B12 1-0 7-5 +7.1 53 76 +5.0 31 -2.2 81 +4.0 63 5.02 50
Tulane Amer 0-1 6-6 +7.1 54 62 +6.2 23 -1.4 86 +1.7 84 2.19 77
Memphis Amer 1-0 8-4 +7.0 55 57 +4.6 34 -2.1 82 +6.8 32 1.14 87
MississippiState SEC 1-0 6-6 +7.0 56 41 +2.3 67 -4.3 58 +6.8 34 8.48 6
Baylor B12 1-0 6-6 +6.9 57 52 +0.1 87 -6.7 27 +4.4 58 5.06 49
Troy Sun 1-0 8-4 +6.9 58 63 +2.3 64 -4.7 51 +3.2 70 -1.94 117
Army Ind 1-0 8-4 +6.5 59 90 -0.8 96 -7.2 23 +4.5 56 -1.88 116
Missouri SEC 1-0 7-5 +6.5 60 65 +3.4 53 -2.8 71 +5.9 42 3.84 59
MichiganState B10 1-0 6-6 +6.5 61 83 +2.7 59 -3.2 69 +7.0 29 7.42 19
Kentucky SEC 1-0 7-5 +6.4 62 82 +0.0 90 -6.2 32 +4.7 53 1.21 86
California P12 0-1 5-7 +6.2 63 43 -0.9 97 -7.3 21 +1.9 80 5.91 42
Arkansas SEC 1-0 5-7 +6.2 64 75 +3.5 51 -2.6 73 +4.4 57 8.79 4
Maryland B10 1-0 6-6 +6.1 65 71 +3.4 52 -2.5 74 +5.5 47 6.13 36
WashingtonState P12 0-1 5-7 +6.0 66 40 +4.0 42 -2.4 79 +1.5 88 5.42 46
OklahomaState B12 1-0 6-6 +5.9 67 31 +0.4 86 -5.0 49 +6.6 35 6.73 28
Rutgers B10 1-0 6-6 +5.9 68 93 +3.9 45 -2.3 80 +2.0 79 6.18 33
Liberty Ind 1-0 8-4 +5.8 69 73 +3.3 54 -2.4 77 +4.7 54 -1.54 112
Colorado P12 1-0 5-7 +5.3 70 64 +1.4 76 -3.6 63 +5.0 49 7.71 13
Nebraska B10 1-1 4-8 +5.3 71 70 +1.3 78 -4.5 53 +0.1 95 7.87 11
FloridaState ACC 0-1 5-7 +5.2 72 74 +5.4 28 -0.2 95 +1.4 90 6.93 24
SanDiegoState MWC 1-0 7-5 +5.1 73 49 -2.5 109 -7.4 20 +3.9 65 -1.18 104
Syracuse ACC 1-0 6-6 +4.9 74 89 -0.2 93 -5.3 46 +2.1 78 6.00 39
Stanford P12 0-1 4-8 +4.6 75 47 -1.1 100 -5.4 44 +4.3 59 8.89 3
FloridaAtlantic CUSA 0-1 7-5 +4.5 76 56 -0.7 95 -5.1 47 +3.2 69 -2.01 118
Tennessee SEC 1-0 6-6 +4.2 77 87 -1.3 102 -5.3 45 +3.0 73 3.29 67
SanJoseState MWC 1-1 7-5 +3.7 78 72 -1.0 98 -4.3 57 +4.3 60 -1.41 110
Wyoming MWC 1-0 7-5 +3.7 79 55 -2.2 107 -5.9 34 +1.8 82 -0.35 99
SouthCarolina SEC 1-0 5-7 +3.6 80 95 +1.2 80 -2.4 78 +1.8 81 6.65 29
OregonState P12 0-1 5-7 +3.5 81 78 +4.0 43 -0.1 99 -1.0 101 6.87 26
Houston Amer 0-1 7-5 +3.0 82 67 +2.3 65 -1.1 91 -0.5 99 -2.96 127
EasternMichigan MAC 1-0 7-5 +3.0 83 85 +1.7 73 -1.3 90 +1.7 85 -1.18 105
CentralMichigan MAC 0-1 6-6 +3.0 84 81 +1.9 70 -1.3 89 +0.5 94 2.47 75
WesternMichigan MAC 0-1 6-6 +2.8 85 60 +4.2 41 +1.5 107 +2.7 74 3.37 64
UTSA CUSA 1-0 8-4 +2.5 86 98 +0.1 88 -1.8 84 +4.8 51 -4.38 131
Tulsa Amer 0-1 5-7 +2.5 87 66 -2.9 111 -5.6 41 +0.0 96 3.18 70
AirForce MWC 1-0 7-5 +2.2 88 86 -2.2 108 -4.5 54 +1.0 92 -0.15 96
Louisville ACC 0-1 5-7 +2.2 89 80 +3.2 56 +0.5 101 -1.4 103 6.16 34
ArkansasState Sun 1-0 6-6 +2.1 90 99 +2.9 57 +1.0 103 +2.2 76 1.42 85
LouisianaTech CUSA 0-1 7-5 +1.9 91 97 +1.8 72 -0.1 97 +1.5 89 -1.33 108
UtahState MWC 1-0 8-4 +1.9 92 104 +0.8 83 -0.8 92 +3.4 68 -1.60 113
Northwestern B10 0-1 5-7 +1.9 93 77 -2.6 110 -4.4 56 +1.6 86 4.22 54
MiamiOH MAC 0-1 6-6 +1.2 94 79 +0.1 89 -0.6 93 +3.7 67 0.40 92
NorthernIllinois MAC 1-0 6-6 +1.0 95 102 -2.0 105 -2.9 70 +1.5 87 1.58 83
FIU CUSA 1-0 7-5 +0.9 96 106 +1.6 75 +0.3 100 -1.8 106 -2.03 119
GeorgiaTech ACC 0-1 3-9 +0.8 97 91 -0.2 92 -1.4 85 -2.0 109 8.46 7
Ohio MAC 0-1 6-6 +0.3 98 84 +0.5 85 -0.2 96 -1.7 105 -1.24 106
Illinois B10 1-1 4-8 +0.2 99 92 +2.0 69 +1.7 111 -0.6 100 7.43 18
MiddleTennessee CUSA 1-0 6-6 -0.1 100 107 +0.7 84 +0.9 102 -0.0 97 -2.71 125
KentState MAC 0-1 5-7 -0.6 101 96 +2.4 62 +3.3 118 +1.1 91 -1.46 111
EastCarolina Amer 0-1 5-7 -0.7 102 100 +1.3 79 +1.7 110 -1.8 107 1.43 84
SouthAlabama Sun 1-0 6-6 -0.9 103 115 -4.1 117 -3.3 68 -0.4 98 -2.23 122
Arizona P12 0-1 3-9 -0.9 104 105 -1.1 99 -0.5 94 -2.7 112 7.56 16
GeorgiaSouthern Sun 1-0 5-7 -1.6 105 94 -3.5 113 -1.4 87 +2.2 77 2.00 79
Hawaii MWC 1-1 6-7 -1.7 106 103 -0.2 91 +2.0 112 +1.7 83 -2.23 121
GeorgiaState Sun 0-1 4-8 -2.2 107 88 +1.9 71 +4.4 121 +0.5 93 4.11 55
WesternKentucky CUSA 1-0 5-7 -2.2 108 117 -2.1 106 -0.1 98 -2.6 110 -0.20 97
NorthTexas CUSA 1-0 5-7 -2.6 109 108 +1.6 74 +4.3 120 -1.2 102 0.02 94
Rice CUSA 0-1 5-7 -3.1 110 109 -5.1 121 -2.5 75 -4.3 117 -1.40 109
Duke ACC 0-1 4-8 -3.6 111 112 -1.6 103 +1.5 108 -5.1 120 3.21 68
ColoradoState MWC 0-1 4-8 -3.9 112 101 -1.1 101 +2.5 115 -4.3 118 2.99 71
NewMexico MWC 1-0 5-7 -4.3 113 114 -3.1 112 +1.2 104 -2.8 113 -1.66 114
TexasState Sun 0-1 4-8 -4.7 114 116 -2.0 104 +2.2 113 -6.1 122 -1.70 115
Charlotte CUSA 1-0 6-6 -5.0 115 120 -0.7 94 +4.6 122 -1.9 108 -2.37 123
Kansas B12 1-0 3-9 -5.4 116 118 -4.1 116 +1.6 109 -1.6 104 7.53 17
SouthernMississippi CUSA 0-1 4-8 -5.4 117 111 -4.0 114 +1.3 105 -4.0 116 0.85 88
Navy Amer 0-1 3-9 -6.3 118 110 -5.0 119 +1.4 106 -2.8 114 6.03 38
SouthFlorida Amer 0-1 3-9 -7.1 119 113 -4.1 115 +3.3 119 -2.7 111 2.97 72
UNLV MWC 0-1 2-10 -8.6 120 122 -6.0 123 +2.2 114 -7.4 124 3.53 62
UTEP CUSA 2-0 5-7 -9.2 121 123 -6.8 125 +2.7 116 -3.2 115 -3.72 128
OldDominion CUSA 0-1 3-9 -10.2 122 124 -5.3 122 +4.6 123 -8.0 127 0.06 93
Temple Amer 0-1 3-9 -10.3 123 121 -5.1 120 +5.4 124 -5.1 121 -0.35 100
Vanderbilt SEC 0-1 2-10 -11.2 124 119 -8.1 128 +2.9 117 -7.6 125 2.87 74
LouisianaMonroe Sun 0-1 3-9 -11.3 125 125 -4.5 118 +6.9 126 -6.2 123 1.63 82
Akron MAC 0-1 3-9 -12.8 126 126 -7.5 126 +5.8 125 -5.0 119 2.28 76
Massachusetts Ind 0-1 3-9 -16.2 127 128 -6.1 124 +10.6 131 -7.7 126 -2.17 120
Connecticut Amer 0-2 2-10 -16.5 128 127 -8.0 127 +8.6 129 -10.2 130 -0.12 95
FCS Z_FCS 6-33 11-106 -17.4 129 131 -10.6 130 +7.1 127 -8.9 128 3.94 58
BowlingGreen MAC 0-1 2-10 -17.4 130 129 -10.4 129 +7.2 128 -9.6 129 -0.81 102
NewMexicoState Ind 0-2 2-10 -20.5 131 130 -10.7 131 +9.6 130 -14.0 131 -0.41 101

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 +23.3 3 3 +15.8 1 -7.4 18 +17.5 2 6.97 23
Iowa B10 1-0 9-3 +17.1 7 18 +6.1 24 -10.9 6 +10.4 14 6.58 30
PennState B10 1-0 8-4 +16.4 10 15 +7.1 18 -9.1 7 +11.3 11 9.54 1
Wisconsin B10 0-1 8-4 +15.1 15 7 +3.7 48 -11.6 4 +6.6 37 8.41 9
Michigan B10 1-0 8-4 +14.1 18 30 +7.8 13 -6.4 30 +8.6 25 8.46 8
Minnesota B10 0-1 7-5 +9.0 37 33 +5.6 26 -3.6 64 +4.6 55 6.13 35
Indiana B10 0-1 5-7 +8.2 42 29 +1.4 77 -6.7 28 +5.9 44 9.07 2
Purdue B10 1-0 6-6 +7.3 51 54 +3.8 46 -3.6 62 +4.0 64 7.31 22
MichiganState B10 1-0 6-6 +6.5 61 83 +2.7 59 -3.2 69 +7.0 29 7.42 19
Maryland B10 1-0 6-6 +6.1 65 71 +3.4 52 -2.5 74 +5.5 47 6.13 36
Rutgers B10 1-0 6-6 +5.9 68 93 +3.9 45 -2.3 80 +2.0 79 6.18 33
Nebraska B10 1-1 4-8 +5.3 71 70 +1.3 78 -4.5 53 +0.1 95 7.87 11
Northwestern B10 0-1 5-7 +1.9 93 77 -2.6 110 -4.4 56 +1.6 86 4.22 54
Illinois B10 1-1 4-8 +0.2 99 92 +2.0 69 +1.7 111 -0.6 100 7.43 18

Sanity compells me to assume Iowa will course-correct in due time, but other, more legitimate ratings systems also have the Hawkeyes rated highly, so...

PERFECTION WATCH

The probability that a team will have a perfect season. Does not yet include post-season games (such as conference championships or bowl games) since those are not yet scheduled.

First, the winners:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf W rk
Alabama SEC 1-0 11-1 +29.7 1 1 +15.3 2 -14.3 3 +19.2 1 0.30 1
Georgia SEC 1-0 11-1 +22.7 4 5 +7.5 16 -14.4 2 +17.4 3 0.18 2
OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 +23.3 3 3 +15.8 1 -7.4 18 +17.5 2 0.14 3
Oklahoma B12 1-0 10-2 +19.7 5 4 +12.2 3 -7.3 22 +14.7 4 0.07 4
CentralFlorida Amer 1-0 10-2 +13.1 22 25 +10.5 5 -2.4 76 +10.1 16 0.05 5
Marshall CUSA 1-0 9-3 +11.3 28 50 +3.7 47 -7.6 17 +6.6 38 0.05 6
Cincinnati Amer 1-0 10-2 +15.2 12 26 +6.2 22 -8.7 9 +11.1 12 0.05 7
Buffalo MAC 1-0 9-3 +10.6 31 42 +7.5 15 -3.4 65 +4.8 52 0.03 8
Iowa B10 1-0 9-3 +17.1 7 18 +6.1 24 -10.9 6 +10.4 14 0.03 9
Texas B12 1-0 9-3 +18.1 6 8 +10.5 4 -7.4 19 +12.9 7 0.03 10
Toledo MAC 1-0 9-3 +9.0 36 39 +5.1 29 -4.0 61 +5.7 45 0.02 11
USC P12 1-0 9-3 +15.6 11 20 +7.0 19 -8.2 12 +12.5 8 0.01 12
UCLA P12 2-0 9-3 +15.2 13 21 +8.9 7 -6.2 31 +10.2 15 0.01 13
TexasAM SEC 1-0 9-3 +16.9 9 13 +5.1 30 -11.2 5 +13.5 5 0.01 14
CoastalCarolina Sun 1-0 9-3 +7.9 46 45 +4.4 38 -3.3 66 +6.5 39 0.01 15
AppalachianState Sun 1-0 9-3 +10.6 30 32 +2.3 66 -7.8 15 +9.0 21 0.01 16
NotreDame ACC 1-0 8-4 +14.3 17 14 +4.9 33 -8.7 10 +12.5 9 0.01 17
Oregon P12 1-0 9-3 +15.2 14 12 +7.9 11 -6.9 26 +11.8 10 0.01 18
PennState B10 1-0 8-4 +16.4 10 15 +7.1 18 -9.1 7 +11.3 11 0.01 19
Nevada MWC 1-0 8-4 +7.4 50 59 +2.6 61 -4.1 60 +8.8 23 0.01 20
Troy Sun 1-0 8-4 +6.9 58 63 +2.3 64 -4.7 51 +3.2 70 0.01 21

Obviously, there are more teams that are currently perfect on the season (a whole one game!) so far. Sample is limited to those teams getting 1% or greater chances according to my formulas right now.

Now the more interesting set:

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Connecticut Amer 0-2 2-10 -16.5 128 127 -8.0 127 +8.6 129 -10.2 130 0.09 1
NewMexicoState Ind 0-2 2-10 -20.5 131 130 -10.7 131 +9.6 130 -14.0 131 0.08 2
UNLV MWC 0-1 2-10 -8.6 120 122 -6.0 123 +2.2 114 -7.4 124 0.08 3
Vanderbilt SEC 0-1 2-10 -11.2 124 119 -8.1 128 +2.9 117 -7.6 125 0.07 4
Navy Amer 0-1 3-9 -6.3 118 110 -5.0 119 +1.4 106 -2.8 114 0.04 5
Akron MAC 0-1 3-9 -12.8 126 126 -7.5 126 +5.8 125 -5.0 119 0.02 6
BowlingGreen MAC 0-1 2-10 -17.4 130 129 -10.4 129 +7.2 128 -9.6 129 0.02 7
ColoradoState MWC 0-1 4-8 -3.9 112 101 -1.1 101 +2.5 115 -4.3 118 0.01 8
Massachusetts Ind 0-1 3-9 -16.2 127 128 -6.1 124 +10.6 131 -7.7 126 0.01 9
OldDominion CUSA 0-1 3-9 -10.2 122 124 -5.3 122 +4.6 123 -8.0 127 0.01 10

Same story here: sample is limited to those teams getting 1% or greater chances according to my formulas right now. Clearly, we have two teams way ahead of the pack.

PLAYOFF RACE

Defined as the odds of finishing the season with one loss or fewer. No G5 teams, because obvs. Conference title games not considered due to my lack of skill in coding for that scenario.

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk 1-Loss rk
Alabama SEC 1-0 11-1 +29.7 1 1 +15.3 2 -14.3 3 +19.2 1 0.70 1
Georgia SEC 1-0 11-1 +22.7 4 5 +7.5 16 -14.4 2 +17.4 3 0.54 2
OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 +23.3 3 3 +15.8 1 -7.4 18 +17.5 2 0.46 3
Oklahoma B12 1-0 10-2 +19.7 5 4 +12.2 3 -7.3 22 +14.7 4 0.29 4
Clemson ACC 0-1 10-2 +24.0 2 2 +8.5 9 -15.6 1 +13.1 6 0.27 5
Iowa B10 1-0 9-3 +17.1 7 18 +6.1 24 -10.9 6 +10.4 14 0.16 10
Texas B12 1-0 9-3 +18.1 6 8 +10.5 4 -7.4 19 +12.9 7 0.15 11
TexasAM SEC 1-0 9-3 +16.9 9 13 +5.1 30 -11.2 5 +13.5 5 0.09 13
USC P12 1-0 9-3 +15.6 11 20 +7.0 19 -8.2 12 +12.5 8 0.09 14
UCLA P12 2-0 9-3 +15.2 13 21 +8.9 7 -6.2 31 +10.2 15 0.08 15
Oregon P12 1-0 9-3 +15.2 14 12 +7.9 11 -6.9 26 +11.8 10 0.07 18
NotreDame ACC 1-0 8-4 +14.3 17 14 +4.9 33 -8.7 10 +12.5 9 0.07 19
PennState B10 1-0 8-4 +16.4 10 15 +7.1 18 -9.1 7 +11.3 11 0.06 20
Army Ind 1-0 8-4 +6.5 59 90 -0.8 96 -7.2 23 +4.5 56 0.05 22
ArizonaState P12 1-0 8-4 +12.2 25 16 +4.4 37 -7.9 14 +6.8 33 0.04 25
Michigan B10 1-0 8-4 +14.1 18 30 +7.8 13 -6.4 30 +8.6 25 0.03 26
IowaState B12 1-0 8-4 +14.0 19 9 +4.9 32 -8.7 11 +10.6 13 0.03 27
Utah P12 1-0 8-4 +12.9 23 19 +6.3 21 -6.5 29 +8.6 24 0.03 28
Auburn SEC 1-0 8-4 +16.9 8 17 +8.2 10 -8.8 8 +10.0 17 0.03 30
Florida SEC 1-0 8-4 +13.2 21 27 +7.2 17 -5.8 39 +9.9 18 0.03 31
NorthCarolinaState ACC 1-0 8-4 +11.5 27 44 +4.3 40 -7.0 25 +7.7 28 0.02 34
BYU Ind 1-0 8-4 +9.3 35 34 +3.5 50 -5.6 42 +6.8 31 0.02 35
Liberty Ind 1-0 8-4 +5.8 69 73 +3.3 54 -2.4 77 +4.7 54 0.02 36
VirginiaTech ACC 1-0 8-4 +8.7 40 46 +2.7 60 -5.8 36 +6.1 41 0.02 37
TCU B12 1-0 8-4 +12.5 24 24 +4.5 36 -8.0 13 +7.0 30 0.02 38
Miami ACC 0-1 8-4 +13.4 20 10 +6.1 25 -7.1 24 +9.5 20 0.02 40
BostonCollege ACC 1-0 8-4 +8.5 41 53 +4.4 39 -4.4 55 +3.8 66 0.02 43
Wisconsin B10 0-1 8-4 +15.1 15 7 +3.7 48 -11.6 4 +6.6 37 0.01 46
WakeForest ACC 1-0 7-5 +9.9 33 36 +7.6 14 -2.7 72 +4.9 50 0.01 47
Pittsburgh ACC 1-0 7-5 +8.2 43 61 +2.4 63 -5.9 35 +4.3 61 0.01 48
Kentucky SEC 1-0 7-5 +6.4 62 82 +0.0 90 -6.2 32 +4.7 53 0.01 51
Mississippi SEC 1-0 7-5 +10.6 32 37 +8.7 8 -2.0 83 +6.6 36 0.01 52
NorthCarolina ACC 0-1 7-5 +11.1 29 23 +5.5 27 -6.1 33 +4.3 62 0.01 55
Virginia ACC 1-0 7-5 +7.6 48 51 +3.3 55 -4.6 52 +3.1 71 0.01 56

1% probability for Wisconsin, currently sitting at 0-1! A'ight, I'll take it.

ASSORTED THOUGHTS

A - Clownfraud Trasch Watch 2021

Every year, there is a team (sometimes more than one!) that manages to pull together a shiny looking record which belies a continued set of unimpressive victories against lesser competition (2014 Florida State, 2015 Iowa, etc.). While we can usually identify these teams by the strikingly similar excuses their annoying fans offer up for their team's crap performances ("have you considered this extremely cherry-picked stat", "numbers can't measure our intangibles", "S&C, brah"), this section aims to help you determine: which teams are actually trasch?

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Diff rk
Nevada MWC 1-0 8-4 +7.4 50 59 +2.6 61 -4.1 60 +8.8 23 0.68 1
NotreDame ACC 1-0 8-4 +14.3 17 14 +4.9 33 -8.7 10 +12.5 9 0.53 7
LouisianaLafayette Sun 0-1 8-4 +9.7 34 28 +4.5 35 -4.8 50 +8.9 22 0.42 14
Georgia SEC 1-0 11-1 +22.7 4 5 +7.5 16 -14.4 2 +17.4 3 0.42 15
TexasAM SEC 1-0 9-3 +16.9 9 13 +5.1 30 -11.2 5 +13.5 5 0.41 16

Notre Dame: hello old friend. Nice to see you again. Hopefully, my favorite team will get to ruin your illusion early on.

2 - The Weekly Watch in Worst

There are bad teams, yes. But is anyone really that surprised when Directional Michigan fails to make a bowl game? The more interesting spectacle is when a power conference school (Rutgers technically qualifies) squanders all their inherent advantages and serves up the suck for their fans. Here are your current "front-runners":

Team Conf Record PrjRec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Vanderbilt SEC 0-1 2-10 -11.2 124 119 -8.1 128 +2.9 117 -7.6 125 2.87 74
Kansas B12 1-0 3-9 -5.4 116 118 -4.1 116 +1.6 109 -1.6 104 7.53 17
Duke ACC 0-1 4-8 -3.6 111 112 -1.6 103 +1.5 108 -5.1 120 3.21 68
Arizona P12 0-1 3-9 -0.9 104 105 -1.1 99 -0.5 94 -2.7 112 7.56 16
Illinois B10 1-1 4-8 +0.2 99 92 +2.0 69 +1.7 111 -0.6 100 7.43 18
GeorgiaTech ACC 0-1 3-9 +0.8 97 91 -0.2 92 -1.4 85 -2.0 109 8.46 7
Northwestern B10 0-1 5-7 +1.9 93 77 -2.6 110 -4.4 56 +1.6 86 4.22 54
Louisville ACC 0-1 5-7 +2.2 89 80 +3.2 56 +0.5 101 -1.4 103 6.16 34
OregonState P12 0-1 5-7 +3.5 81 78 +4.0 43 -0.1 99 -1.0 101 6.87 26
SouthCarolina SEC 1-0 5-7 +3.6 80 95 +1.2 80 -2.4 78 +1.8 81 6.65 29

Vanderbilt, Kansas: hello old friends.

III - Best Performance of the Week/Year

Impressive performances (quality of opponent helps, but is not required) that may be worth taking notice of. Expect to see a lot of Alabama.

Last week:

Wk Day Date Team H/V Opponent W/L PtsO PtsD
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #1 Alabama N #20 Miami W 44 13
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #4 Georgia N #2 Clemson W 10 3
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #28 Marshall V #118 Navy W 49 7
2 Thu 2021-09-02 #27 NorthCarolinaState H #119 SouthFlorida W 45 0
2 Sat 2021-09-04 #7 Iowa H #42 Indiana W 34 6

As you can see, complete pantsings of terrible opponents can still get you a spot here, although Bama still reigns supreme.

THE PICKINGS

On the season, these predictions have a mean-square-error of 309.5 over 50 games, which would rank #22 (out of 47 ratings systems) here: [LINK]. Although, most of the ratings systems there are 51 game samples, so somehow I'm missing one. Hmmm...

Games are listed in order of estimated "excitement", basically close games with high-quality teams are better. WLK is the projected win likelihood of TEAM over OPPONENT. Straight-up picks in bold. No picks against the spread until I figure out from where I can easily grab each week's lines.

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 11 #7 Iowa V #19 IowaState 52% 0.6
Sep 11 #35 BYU H #23 Utah 47% -1.1
Sep 11 #3 OhioState H #14 Oregon 77% 10.5
Sep 11 #27 NorthCarolinaState V #56 MississippiState 56% 2.0
Sep 11 #20 Miami H #30 AppalachianState 64% 5.2
Sep 11 #71 Nebraska H #31 Buffalo 42% -2.8
Sep 11 #43 Pittsburgh V #77 Tennessee 54% 1.5
Sep 11 #62 Kentucky H #60 Missouri 57% 2.4
Sep 11 #17 NotreDame H #36 Toledo 70% 7.6
Sep 11 #74 Syracuse H #68 Rutgers 54% 1.5
Sep 11 #18 Michigan H #38 Washington 70% 7.6
Sep 11 #69 Liberty V #58 Troy 40% -3.5
Sep 11 #6 Texas V #64 Arkansas 74% 9.3
Sep 11 #95 NorthernIllinois H #79 Wyoming 50% -0.1
Sep 11 #55 Memphis V #90 ArkansasState 57% 2.4
Sep 11 #10 PennState H #47 BallState 77% 11.0
Sep 11 #24 TCU H #63 California 73% 8.7
Sep 11 #102 EastCarolina H #80 SouthCarolina 45% -1.7
Sep 11 #70 Colorado N #9 TexasAM 22% -11.5
Sep 11 #73 SanDiegoState V #104 Arizona 60% 3.4
Sep 11 #87 Tulsa V #67 OklahomaState 34% -5.8
Sep 11 #52 UAB V #4 Georgia 12% -17.7
Sep 11 #75 Stanford V #11 USC 18% -13.4
Sep 11 #82 Houston V #110 Rice 60% 3.6
Sep 11 #37 Minnesota H #94 MiamiOH 76% 10.2
Sep 11 #15 Wisconsin H #83 EasternMichigan 83% 14.4
Sep 11 #48 Virginia H #99 Illinois 75% 9.8
Sep 11 #106 Hawaii V #81 OregonState 30% -7.6
Sep 11 #40 VirginiaTech H #100 MiddleTennessee 78% 11.2
Sep 11 #76 FloridaAtlantic H #105 GeorgiaSouthern 72% 8.5
Sep 11 #118 Navy H #88 AirForce 34% -5.9
Sep 11 #108 WesternKentucky V #59 Army 22% -11.1
Sep 11 #96 FIU H #114 TexasState 71% 8.0
Sep 11 #44 SMU H #109 NorthTexas 81% 13.0
Sep 11 #29 NorthCarolina H #107 GeorgiaState 85% 15.7
Sep 11 #123 Temple V #126 Akron 50% 0.0
Sep 10 #116 Kansas V #46 CoastalCarolina 15% -15.6
Sep 11 #85 WesternMichigan H IllinoisState 80% 12.4
Sep 11 #119 SouthFlorida H #21 Florida 12% -17.6
Sep 11 #112 ColoradoState H #124 Vanderbilt 75% 9.6
Sep 11 #120 UNLV V #25 ArizonaState 7% -23.0
Sep 10 #121 UTEP V #26 BoiseState 7% -23.3
Sep 11 #42 Indiana H Idaho 92% 21.4
Sep 11 #61 MichiganState H Youngstown State 91% 20.3
Sep 11 #130 BowlingGreen H #103 SouthAlabama 17% -13.9
Sep 10 #111 Duke H North Carolina A&T 84% 14.5
Sep 11 #128 Connecticut H #51 Purdue 9% -21.1
Sep 11 #41 BostonCollege V #127 Massachusetts 92% 22.0
Sep 11 #97 GeorgiaTech H Kennesaw State 89% 18.6
Sep 11 #72 FloridaState H Jacksonville State 92% 22.2
Sep 11 #91 LouisianaTech H Southeastern Louisiana 92% 21.8
Sep 11 #34 LouisianaLafayette H Nicholls State 95% 27.1
Sep 10 #92 UtahState H North Dakota 92% 22.0
Sep 11 #45 KansasState H SouthernIllinois 95% 26.5
Sep 11 #131 NewMexicoState V #113 NewMexico 11% -18.5
Sep 11 #84 CentralMichigan H Robert Morris 93% 23.6
Sep 11 #117 SouthernMississippi H GramblingState 91% 21.2
Sep 11 #49 WestVirginia H Long Island 97% 30.5
Sep 11 #16 LSU H McNeeseState 98% 36.3
Sep 11 #50 Nevada H IdahoState 97% 32.1
Sep 11 #115 Charlotte H Gardner-Webb 94% 24.2
Sep 11 #122 OldDominion H Hampton 92% 21.3
Sep 11 #89 Louisville H Eastern Kentucky 97% 30.1
Sep 11 #66 WashingtonState H Portland State 98% 33.9
Sep 11 #93 Northwestern H IndianaState 97% 32.0
Sep 11 #39 FresnoState H Cal Poly 98% 36.8
Sep 11 #98 Ohio H Duquesne 97% 31.3
Sep 11 #32 Mississippi H Austin Peay 99% 38.5
Sep 11 #22 CentralFlorida H Bethune-Cookman 99% 42.8
Sep 11 #8 Auburn H Alabama State 99% 45.6
Sep 11 #1 Alabama H Mercer 100% 55.7
Sep 11 #33 WakeForest H Norfolk State 99% 42.8
Sep 11 #53 TexasTech H Stephen F. Austin 99% 41.7
Sep 11 #57 Baylor H TexasSouthern 99% 41.8
Sep 11 #2 Clemson H South Carolina State 100% 53.3
Sep 11 #28 Marshall H North Carolina Central 99% 45.9
Sep 11 #65 Maryland H Howard 99% 44.1
Sep 11 #86 UTSA H Lamar 99% 44.0
Sep 11 #12 Cincinnati H Murray State 100% 52.7
Sep 11 #5 Oklahoma H WesternCarolina 100% 57.9
Sep 11 #101 KentState H VMI 100% 50.1
Sep 11 #54 Tulane H Morgan State 100% 64.1

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Team H/V Opponent WLk PrjMOV
Sep 11 #7 Iowa V #19 IowaState 52% 0.6
Sep 11 #3 OhioState H #14 Oregon 77% 10.5
Sep 11 #71 Nebraska H #31 Buffalo 42% -2.8
Sep 11 #74 Syracuse H #68 Rutgers 54% 1.5
Sep 11 #18 Michigan H #38 Washington 70% 7.6
Sep 11 #10 PennState H #47 BallState 77% 11.0
Sep 11 #37 Minnesota H #94 MiamiOH 76% 10.2
Sep 11 #15 Wisconsin H #83 EasternMichigan 83% 14.4
Sep 11 #48 Virginia H #99 Illinois 75% 9.8
Sep 11 #42 Indiana H Idaho 92% 21.4
Sep 11 #61 MichiganState H Youngstown State 91% 20.3
Sep 11 #128 Connecticut H #51 Purdue 9% -21.1
Sep 11 #93 Northwestern H IndianaState 97% 32.0
Sep 11 #65 Maryland H Howard 99% 44.1

I know it's fun to crap on Nebraska, but seriously: they are not going to lose to Buffalo. If they do, there is a lot wrong in Lincoln.