Big Ten Coaching Hot Seats Week 7: Is Brian Ferentz quiet quitting?

Since the last edition of Big Ten coaching hot seats...

Paul Chryst was betrayed by his own followers for 30 points of offense against Northwestern. Chryst took the firing in stride and negotiated a lower buyout for himself. Apparently he was as tired of Badger fans as the rest of the world and just wanted to get away even if it cost him something like $8 million. Who can blame the poor still pretty rich guy?

Mike De Sisti / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

While much has already been said on this site about the wisconsin Badgers decision to fire Paul, I will chime in that IF the Badgers are certain they have a great replacement lined up, I can understand it. That’s a pretty big IF though. No, one game against Northwestern does not have me convinced that they made the right decision.

Having not included Paul even in the watchlist portion of my rankings two weeks ago has led to certain criticism being squawked about by even older and more out of date boiler bot models. I do have to protest against this most unjust and unfair characterization of these hot seat rankings. At the bottom of the last edition of the hot seat rankings was a line that was apparently overlooked: “Coaches needing five wins to be safe: Minnesota Gophers HC PJ Fleck (4/5), Paul Chryst (2/5), Tom Allen (3/5)”. Paul Chryst had not secured his necessary five wins to be safe for 2023. Therefore, I was technically correct. The best kind of correct.

On a more conciliatory note, Chryst’s firing shows that no coach is safe. The imminent increase in TV revenues from leaving the terrible broadcasts that are ESPN has given every athletic department across the Big Ten plenty of money to play around with. Add in that coaches are apparently willing to throw away money instead of taking the full sum of money guaranteed to them in their buyouts (see Scott Frost and Paul Chryst) and more inaccuracy in the hot seat rankings should be expected moving forward.

In other news, Sean Gleeson was unceremoniously removed from his position right as I was wrapping up this edition of the hot seats rankings and about to schedule it for publishing. Dear Greg Schiano, I hope you are fired for doing this. All I ask is that programs fire coaches on Mondays after the hot seat rankings are published. Is that too much to ask?

Here’s what I had to say about Gleeson this week:

Moved by the pleas of the Knights faithful and more importantly having watched the 2nd half of the Knights game vs the Cornhuskers in the background, I’ve decided to move Gleeson up a spot this week. Rutgers is once again last place in the conference when it comes to scoring (yes, Iowa has 14 more points scored in B1G play than Rutgers). There is no shame in only scoring 10 points on Ohio State or Iowa - these things happen. But to get shutout in the second half against Nebraska is a much worse look (dear Purdue, don’t make me regret saying this). Rutgers is averaging just 334 yards/game - 2nd worst in the conference, and 23rd worst in the nation. Last year they were 11th worst. The year before 24th worst. Yes, Gleeson has improved upon the Rutgers offense under Chris Ash. But that is not nearly enough. In year 3, you’ve got to be doing better than this or at least be having some success as a team to make fans forget that the offense is terrible.

**DISCLAIMER*** BoilerUp89 does not wish unemployment upon anyone and asks that you remember these coaches are real people with a family. Watching the performance of some of these coaches is inappropriate for young children, degenerate gamblers, and fans with addiction problems. All viewers watch these games at their own risk.

The Top 5

1 - Northwestern Wildcats DC Jim O’Neil (previously 1) - 2nd season, salary - PRIVATE SCHOOL DOLLARS, contract remaining - PRIVATE SCHOOL YEARS, buyout - PRIVATE SCHOOL DOLLARS

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

From a certain point of view, Jim O’Neil executed a perfect game plan against wisconsin. He slowed down the traditionally dominant Badger rushing attack by holding them to 0 touchdowns. But in doing so, O’Neil also let Graham Mertz throw for 299 yards and 5 touchdowns. Plus another passing touchdown from a Badger running back. The Badgers offense averaged over 10 yards a pass attempt and 5 yards a run. Northwestern doesn’t have the most points allowed in B1G play (they are somehow 4th), but they also got to face Penn State in a monsoon and the three behind them had to face the Death Star. Grading to the level of competition, O’Neil’s Wildcat defense is probably the worst in the conference and O’Neil has earned his spot atop the rankings.

2 - Michigan State Spartans DC Scottie Hazelton (previously 2) - 3rd season, salary - $1.1M, contract remaining - 2 years*, buyout - $2.56M.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Speaking of bad defenses, Hazelton has the Spartan D operating as one of the worst units in the B1G. If we include non-conference games (which we really shouldn’t), Michigan State is only the 4th worst defense in the conference. Of those below them, one has already fired their DC (Nebraska), another’s DC takes the #1 spot in these rankings, and the third is handicapped by an offense that forces them to be on the field way too much (Indiana). Michigan State’s biggest problem is the defense. It was last year and continues to be this year. Their passing coverage schemes are too complicated for a college football team to execute. This has them once against leading the Big Ten in passing yards given up per game (292, good for 10th most in the country). Last year they led the country in that category. If Sparty does a worse job of containing Graham Mertz than Northwestern next week, Hazelton will move up to the #1 spot in the rankings if he isn’t fired before I can get the next rankings article out in two weeks.

*Hazelton’s contract runs thru March 31, 2025. So at $1.1M a year, his buyout at the end of November is the 2 and ¹⁄₃ year salary.

3 - Rutgers Scarlet Knights OC Sean Gleeson (previously 4) - 3rd season, salary - $1.025M, contract remaining - 1 year, buyout - $1.05M (2023 salary)

Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Moved by the pleas of the Knights faithful and more importantly having watched the 2nd half of the Knights game vs the Cornhuskers in the background, I’ve decided to move Gleeson up a spot this week. Rutgers is once again last place in the conference when it comes to scoring (yes, Iowa has 14 more points scored in B1G play than Rutgers). There is no shame in only scoring 10 points on Ohio State or Iowa - these things happen. But to get shutout in the second half against Nebraska is a much worse look (dear Purdue, don’t make me regret saying this). Rutgers is averaging just 334 yards/game - 2nd worst in the conference, and 23rd worst in the nation. Last year they were 11th worst. The year before 24th worst. Yes, Gleeson has improved upon the Rutgers offense under Chris Ash. But that is not nearly enough. In year 3, you’ve got to be doing better than this or at least be having some success as a team to make fans forget that the offense is terrible.

3 - Northwestern Wildcats OC Mike Bajakian (previously 3)- 3rd season, salary - PRIVATE SCHOOL DOLLARS, contract remaining - PRIVATE SCHOOL YEARS, buyout - PRIVATE SCHOOL DOLLARS

Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Bajakian moved down a spot in the rankings this week (and then right back up), but it had nothing to do with his performance. The Wildcats put up 7 points for the second consecutive week. They have scored less points than Rutgers on the year (106 vs. 137) despite being solidly middle of the pack when it comes to gaining yardage. I was intrigued by the performance of backup QB Brendan Sullivan this week, but that just makes me wonder - why isn’t he the starter? The Wildcats offense is broken. Like several other West division teams this is a feature, but unlike those other teams they don’t have the defense to prop up the overall team performance.

4 - Iowa Hawkeyes OC Brian Ferentz (previously 5) - 6th season, salary - $900k, contract remaining - One pick up game with Dad in the driveway**, buyout - all you can eat at the Iowa head coach’s house**

Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

If you read the bit about Gleeson, you may recall that Rutgers has the 23rd worst offense in yards/game with 334. That got Gleeson fired. Brian Ferentz’s offense is averaging 238.7. That’s good for last place in the country. Colorado State, UMass, New Mexico, and New Mexico State are among the teams with better offense yardage than Brian Ferentz.

One of Iowa’s scoring “drives” against Illinois went like this: Iowa takes possession at their own 27, loses 11 yards on three plays, punts for 49 yards, Illinois muffs the punt. Iowa now has the ball at the Illini 35, loses 6 yards on three plays, punts for 27 yards. Illinois fumbles on 2nd down. Iowa takes possession at the Illini 5 yards line! Loses 4 yards, kicks the field goal. Three 3 and outs, 2 punts, and -21 yards.

Two games have been won this year by a team scoring less than 10 points. Both involved Iowa. Iowa has 88 points over 6 games. Here is how they got them: 2 safeties, 7 field goals, 7 offensive touchdowns. 2 defensive touchdowns, 9 extra points. Temple, Colorado State, and FIU have less points but they’ve only played 5 games. New Mexico State, UMass, and Colorado also have less points scored. Those three teams are a combined 2-15 with just one win against FBS competition. It is at this point that I remind you that Brian technically works for Gary Barta not Kirk. Barta has full control on whether Brian is fired, although that may lead to Kirk rage quitting. As for Kirk, here is what he had to say:

** Brian’s contract details are mysteriously murky.

5 - Indiana Hoosiers OC Walt Bell (previously not ranked) - 1st season, salary - $700K, contract remaining - 1 year, buyout - $700K

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Walt Bell continues to be sabotaged by a porous offensive line not of his own making. Darren Hiller was the real villain of this story and he was fired Sunday. But while Hiller needed to go, that’s not going to solve the Hoosiers O-line issues overnight. O-line happens to be the position group that takes the longest to develop and is usually the most difficult to bring in solid transfers for. What I’m saying is that if Bell can’t make the offense work with the O-line as it is, then he’s probably not going to be able to next year and possibly the year after that. Allen probably can’t afford to not make a bowl for the next three seasons, so he might be wise to consider his options if an upgrade is available and the IU athletic department gives him the budget to do so. Hiller’s firing midseason will also up the pressure (unfairly) on Bell to produce better results in the 2nd half of the season.

Watchlist

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Northwestern Wildcats HC Pat Fitzgerald

Fitz is steadily banging on the door of the top 5 rankings to be let in. Yes, Northwestern athletic director Derrick Gragg is more likely to just tell Pat he has to reshuffle his staff. And yes, Northwestern athletics still has to deal with men’s basketball coach Chris Collins and didn’t following last year. There are lots of reasons to think that Fitz will be perfectly safe, including his rumored $5.7M/year contract that runs through 2030. None of that changes the fact that the Wildcats are 4-14 (2-10) in their last 18 games and headed straight to an Ireland-11 season. If Northwestern can afford a fancy new $800 million stadium, they can afford to buyout Fitz.

Indiana Hoosiers HC Tom Allen

I firmly believe that Allen should be safe at the end of the season. But I also believed that there was no possible way that Paul Chryst would be fired midseason. Yes, Chryst was about to enter the watchlist, but even with that I still wouldn’t have predicted a move before the end of the season if at all. But if buyouts are meaningless (and we seem to be getting more data points that they are every week), then the nearly $25 million owed to Allen is just a drop in the bucket. Indiana seems less likely to make that move than wisconsin (who owed less) and even if they were to spend that money on non-basketball related athletic expenses, wouldn’t they wait until divisions were eliminated so as to give the new head coach a chance to hit the ground running? One final note on Allen: you don’t typically fire position coaches midseason if you are secure in your job.

Michigan State Spartans OC Jay Johnson

For all the talk about the issues with the Spartans defense, the Spartan offense has been fairly bad in their own right. Just 40 points in their 3 games against B1G teams: 7 against Minnesota, 13 against Maryland, and 20 against Ohio State (although 7 of those were from a pick six). Those aren’t awful defenses, but Sparty is still the 2nd worst scoring offense in the conference as we enter the second third of conference play. Their 342 yards/game is 28th worst in the nation and only better than Iowa and Rutgers in the B1G. While Sparty does have opportunities against defenses like Indiana and Rutgers to score some points and bring those numbers up, a bowl bid is looking increasingly unlikely and it’s not just the defense that is to blame.

Indiana Hoosiers DC Chat Wilt

On the whole I think Wilt is doing an admirable job considering the circumstances. That doesn’t change the fact that in his last four games, Indiana has given up 30, 45, 35, and 31 against Western Kentucky, Cincinnati, Nebraska, and Michigan. These aren’t terrible offenses by any stretch of the imagination but it brings the season totals for points allowed up to 183 over the first half of the season. Indiana still has to play Ohio State, Maryland, Penn State, and Purdue all of which probably have better offenses than the first 6 teams they’ve faced. It’s not hard to squint and see things going south in a hurry. As a result, Wilt joins the watchlist despite the fact I think he’s doing a good job considering the state of the offense and the rebuilding nature of the defense.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights HC Greg Schiano

Greg is in year 3 of this go around at Rutgers and has yet to get to six wins. Following the loss to Nebraska that looks increasingly unlikely to change this season. I get that Schiano had success at Rutgers before. I also get that he started that iteration missing a bowl game his first four seasons before hitting his stride. That doesn’t change the fact that Rutgers fans have yet to experience a Big Ten home victory under him thru 2.5 seasons. Schiano - like Allen and Fitzgerald - is most likely looking at staffing changes rather than a wholesale program purge. Also like Allen, does Rutgers really want to start another new coach under the Big Ten East division in 2023 or would it be better to wait for divisionless play in 2024?

Nebraska Cornhuskers OC Mark Whipple

Unless Mickey Joseph is given the job full time, Whipple seems likely to be let go at season’s end to allow the incoming guy full control. Even if Mickey Joseph gets the job (and I’d say this is less than 10% likely), Whipple is still 50/50 on whether he is let go at season’s end.

wisconsin Badgers OC Bobby Engram

Engram’s offense looked good against Northwestern. If this is Leonhard’s program moving forward like most seem to think, there is no guarantee that Leonhard will want to keep him rather than make his own hire. If it isn’t Leonhard’s program, then Engram will almost certainly be looking elsewhere come December.

Purdue Boilermakers DC Ron English

Outside of the final 2 minutes of a half this season, Purdue’s defense has given up just 88 points. In the final 2 minutes of a half this season, Purdue’s defense has given up 6 touchdowns and a field goal. Purdue has a good run defense, an okay but flawed passing defense, and a terrible prevent defense. English as a whole has been fine. I’d like more opponent specific defensive scripts, but it has been fine. English is on this list for another reason. If I’m Jeff Brohm, I’m not letting co-DC Mark Hagen go. Hagen is the mastermind behind Purdue’s good run D the past two seasons and Purdue’s best recruiter. If he wants to shed the co-DC title and become the play caller, I don’t see how you don’t seriously consider that.

Coaches that are safe for 2023

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Iowa Hawkeyes HC Kirk Ferentz, DC Phil Parker

Note: I’m familiar enough with the workings of Gary Barta that despite the fact that Iowa is awful and wisconsin showing that money is meaningless, I’m still willing to state that Ferentz is safe for 2023. He may quit if Barta fires his son or he may retire but the likelihood that Kirk is shown the door still seems unlikely under his current contract and his current athletic director.

Penn State Nittany Lions HC James Franklin

Illinois Fighting Illini HC Bret Bielema, DC Ryan Walters (despite being safe Walters is likely leaving for a head coaching job if he wants one)

Michigan Wolverines HC Jim Harbaugh

Safety Levels

The below win totals are the #s needed to be 100% safe for returning next season. They are a reflection of contracts, season expectations, and past performance. I would expect many of these coaches to return even if they don’t meet these thresholds, but if they fail to do so this is where we start talking about the realm of possibility barring off field stuff we don’t already know about.

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Coaches needing three wins to be safe: (Mel Tucker (2/3)

Coaches needing four wins to be safe: Pat Fitzgerald (1/4)

Coaches needing five wins to be safe: Minnesota Gophers HC PJ Fleck (4/5), Tom Allen (3/5)

Coaches needing six wins to be safe: Jeff Brohm (4/6), Maryland Terrapins HC Mike Locksley (4/6), Greg Schiano (3/6)

Coaches needing seven wins to be safe: Ohio State Buckeyes HC Ryan Day (6/7)