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CFP, NY6, and P-5 CCG Summary

As the regular season draws to a close, there's enough to begin to sort out the programs still chasing a College Football Playoff and NY6 invite.

Also included at the end is a guide to P-5 conference title chases.

Quick review of NY6 selections

  • The CFP selects 4 teams for the playoffs.
  • The CFP selects at least 1 G-5 team to fill 1 of the 12 spots.
  • The 5 P-5 Champs are guaranteed and invite to the NY6
  • None of the 3 bowls with automatic tie-ins with the P-5 are hosting a CFP game - if their conference champ is in the playoffs, the bowl selects another team from the same conference.
  • The above automatic bids fill 10 of the 12 invites, leaving 2 at-large teams.

11-0 Undefeated teams chasing a CFP invite (4 teams)

If these teams suffer 1 loss, I expect they will still get a NY6 invite.

  • B1G tOSU and tTUN next - The Game, winner in CCG, loser likely in Rose or at-large
  • B12 TCU next - Iowa State (4-7), then Kansas State (8-3) or Texas (7-4) in CCG
  • SEC Georgia next - Ga Tech (5-6), then LSU (9-2) in CCG

10-1 P-5 chasing a CFP Invite (2)

There will be no more than 3 undefeated teams this year, so at least 1 1-loss team will get an invite.

  • ACC Clemson next - South Carolina (7-4), then North Carolina (9-2) in CCG
  • PAC USC next - Notre Dame (8-3), then CCG

Can the B1G get 2 CFP teams?

Much more likely after Saturday week, as the near choke teams separated themselves from the choke teams. Easiest path is for there to be only 4 1-loss or undefeated teams, not a stretch that both Clemson and USC could pick up another loss. Also a route if TCU loses CCG and Clemson or USC pick up a 2nd loss. This could open the door for a PSU to the Rose Bowl, elevate the rest of the conference 1 slot in the bowl picks, and nobody goes to Detroit.

9-2 P-5 chasing conference title and longshot CFP Invite (4)

If there's less than 4 1 loss P-5 teams, there is a chance for a 2 loss P-5 team to make the CFP this year. The shortest path to this would be for Georgia or TCU to lose their final 2 games while Clemson and USC each lose 1 game.

  • ACC N. Carolina next - NC State (7-4), then Clemson (10-1) in CCG
  • PAC Oregon CCG path - beat Oregon State (8-3), or Washington loses
  • PAC Washington CCG path - beat Wash St (7-4) and Oregon loses and Utah loses
  • SEC LSU next - TA&M (4-7), then Georgia (11-0) in CCG

Moving on to the NY6...

Other 9-2 P-5 (3)

With 10 teams ahead of them sporting the same or better record, and possibly a shiny Conference Championship trophy, these teams aren't really in the chase for a CFP invite, but a NY6 appearance would be nothing to scoff at.

  • B1G PSU next - Sparty (5-6)
  • SEC Tennessee next - Vanderbilt (5-6)
  • SEC Alabama next - Auburn (5-6)

Other P5 Chasing Conference Champ Auto-Bids (6)

With the P-5 tie-ins to the bowls, and most P-5 having divisions, you can get some real dogs in the NY6 bowls. B1G will face winner of tOSU-tTUN. B12 will face TCU. PAC will face USC.

  • B1G Iowa (7-4) path - beat Nebraska (3-8), or both Purdue-Illini lose
  • B1G Purdue (7-4) path - beat Indiana (4-7) and Iowa loses
  • B1G Illinois (7-4) path - beat NW (1reland-10), and both Iowa-Purdue lose
  • B12 Kansas St. (8-3) path - beat Kansas (6-5), or Texas loses
  • B12 Texas (7-4) path - beat Baylor (6-5) and Kansas State loses
  • PAC Utah (8-3)* path - beat Colorado (1-10) and Oregon loses and Wash wins

G-5 Autobid - whatever the committee decides, 1 or 2 loss G-5 teams (5)

There aren't good options for the committee to choose from this year.

  • AAC Tulane (9-2) or Cincinnati (9-2) next - play each other, then winner or both to CCG
  • Sun Coastal Carolina (9-1)* next - James Madison (7-3), winner to CCG
  • Sun Troy (9-2) next - Arkansas State (3-8), owns div. tie-breaker over S. Bama
  • Sun South Alabama (9-2) next - Old Dominion (3-8)
  • CUSA UTSA (9-2) next - UTEP (5-6), then CCG vs. N. Texas or W. Kentucky

*Costal Carolina hampered by their P5 game with Virginia cancelled because of another nutcase with a gun, this time shooting some players, thoughts and prayers, rinse and repeat.

But wait, there's more!

Because the P-5 tie-in bowls select another team from the same conference, they could go even deeper in the conference rankings. Some notable teams that aren't a ridiculous scenario:

  • ACC Florida State (8-3) next - Florida (6-5)
  • B12 Okie Lite (8-3) next - WVU (4-7)

CCG Chase

ACC Clemson vs. North Carolina
SEC Georgia vs. LSU

B12 TCU already in
Kansas St. path - beat Kansas (6-5), or Texas loses
Texas path - beat Baylor (6-5) and Kansas State loses

B1G east tOSU-tTUN winner
B1G west
Iowa path - beat Nebraska (3-8), or both Purdue-Illini lose
Purdue path - beat Indiana (4-7) and Iowa loses
Illinois path - beat NW (1reland-10), and both Iowa-Purdue lose

PAC USC already in
Oregon path - beat Oregon State (8-3), or Washington loses
Washington path - beat Wash St (7-4) and Oregon loses and Utah loses
Utah* path - beat Colorado (1-10) and Oregon loses and Wash wins

Late edit - PAC convoluted tie-breaker correction