The P-5 finish the regular season with 3 undefeated, 2 1-loss, 5 2-loss, and 8 3-loss teams.
The G-5 finish the regular season with no undefeated or 1 loss teams, 5 2-loss teams, and 6 3-loss teams.
College Football Playoffs
Undefeated and 1 loss P-5 Playing for Conf. Title (4)
I expect Michigan and Georgia to be invited, even with 1 loss, ahead of tOSU and 2 loss teams.
Other 1-loss P-5 Teams (1)
B10 - Ohio State needs TCU or USC loss
New Years 6 Bowls
2-loss P-5 Playing for Conf. Title (1)
Historically the CFP committee has left out 2-loss P-5 champs in favor of 1 loss non-champs.
ACC - Clemson next North Carolina (9-3) - out of NY6 if they lose ACC
Other 2-loss P-5 Chasing At-Large or Conf. Tie-In Invites (4)
B1G - Penn State Nittany Lions - On the bubble, would be helped if Georgia-tTUN-TCU-USC all win their conference
PAC - Washington Huskies - If USC wins the PAC, Wash. gets Rose tie-in invite, I doubt they would get at large invite
3+ loss Chasing P-5 Conf. Champ Auto Invites (5)
B1G - Purdue (8-4) next Michigan (12-0) out of NY6 if they lose
B12 - Kansas State (9-3) next TCU (12-0)
PAC - Utah (9-3) next USC (11-1) out of NY6 if they lose
SEC - LSU (9-3) next Georgia (12-0) out of NY6 if they lose
Conf. NY6 Bowl Tie-Ins if their Conf. Champ gets CFP Invite
B1G (Rose) - tOSU (11-1) or PSU (10-2) if B1G gets 2 CFP invites
B12 (Sugar) - Kansas State (would be 9-4 with loss to TCU) - in Sugar regardless of winning/losing to TCU
PAC (Rose) - Washington (10-2)
SEC (Sugar) - Alabama (10-2)
G-5 At Large Autobid
AAC - winner of Tulane (10-2) vs. UCF (9-3)
2 loss G-5 snubs in favor of 3-loss UCF if they win AAC
CUSA - UTSA
Sun - Coastal Carolina, Troy, South Alabama
My Best Guess:
Peach - Georgia (13-0) vs. USC (12-1)
Fiesta - Michigan (13-0) vs. TCU (13-0)
Rose - tOSU (11-1) vs. Washington (10-2)
Sugar - Alabama (10-2) vs. Kansas State (9-4)
Orange - Clemson (11-2) vs. Tennessee (10-2)
Cotton - PSU (10-2) vs. Tulane (11-2) or UCF (10-3) (I don't follow the G-5 at all)
My ideal scenario - USC wins PAC, TCU loses B12 becoming at-large, replacing Penn State
- Peach becomes Georgia-tOSU, Fiesta becomes tTUN-USC
- 2 current and 1 future B1G teams in CFP, south threatens SECession.
- Penn State receives conference tie-in to Rose Bowl.
- TCU replaces Penn State in Cotton.
- Bonus if PAC other than USC and UCLA, and B12, and ACC, get wiped in the bowls, ahead of the new bowl tie-in negotiations.