A Guide to CFP, NY6 Invites

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The P-5 finish the regular season with 3 undefeated, 2 1-loss, 5 2-loss, and 8 3-loss teams.

The G-5 finish the regular season with no undefeated or 1 loss teams, 5 2-loss teams, and 6 3-loss teams.

College Football Playoffs

Undefeated and 1 loss P-5 Playing for Conf. Title (4)

B10 - Michigan Wolverines (12-0) next Purdue Boilermakers (8-4)

B12 - TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) next Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) with loss in CFP if USC loses, likely NY6 at-large at large if USC wins

PAC - USC Trojans (11-1) next Utah Utes (9-3) with loss USC NY6 at-large candidate

SEC - Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) next LSU Tigers (9-3)

I expect Michigan and Georgia to be invited, even with 1 loss, ahead of tOSU and 2 loss teams.

Other 1-loss P-5 Teams (1)

B10 - Ohio State needs TCU or USC loss

New Years 6 Bowls

2-loss P-5 Playing for Conf. Title (1)

Historically the CFP committee has left out 2-loss P-5 champs in favor of 1 loss non-champs.

ACC - Clemson next North Carolina (9-3) - out of NY6 if they lose ACC

Other 2-loss P-5 Chasing At-Large or Conf. Tie-In Invites (4)

B1G - Penn State Nittany Lions - On the bubble, would be helped if Georgia-tTUN-TCU-USC all win their conference

PAC - Washington Huskies - If USC wins the PAC, Wash. gets Rose tie-in invite, I doubt they would get at large invite

SEC - Tennessee Volunteers and Alabama Crimson Tide - If Georgia wins SEC, Bama to Sugar Bowl, Tenn. at-large.

3+ loss Chasing P-5 Conf. Champ Auto Invites (5)

ACC - North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3) next Clemson Tigers (10-2)

B1G - Purdue (8-4) next Michigan (12-0) out of NY6 if they lose

B12 - Kansas State (9-3) next TCU (12-0)

PAC - Utah (9-3) next USC (11-1) out of NY6 if they lose

SEC - LSU (9-3) next Georgia (12-0) out of NY6 if they lose

Conf. NY6 Bowl Tie-Ins if their Conf. Champ gets CFP Invite

B1G (Rose) - tOSU (11-1) or PSU (10-2) if B1G gets 2 CFP invites

B12 (Sugar) - Kansas State (would be 9-4 with loss to TCU) - in Sugar regardless of winning/losing to TCU

PAC (Rose) - Washington (10-2)

SEC (Sugar) - Alabama (10-2)

G-5 At Large Autobid

AAC - winner of Tulane (10-2) vs. UCF (9-3)

2 loss G-5 snubs in favor of 3-loss UCF if they win AAC


Sun - Coastal Carolina, Troy, South Alabama

My Best Guess:

Peach - Georgia (13-0) vs. USC (12-1)

Fiesta - Michigan (13-0) vs. TCU (13-0)

Rose - tOSU (11-1) vs. Washington (10-2)

Sugar - Alabama (10-2) vs. Kansas State (9-4)

Orange - Clemson (11-2) vs. Tennessee (10-2)

Cotton - PSU (10-2) vs. Tulane (11-2) or UCF (10-3) (I don't follow the G-5 at all)

My ideal scenario - USC wins PAC, TCU loses B12 becoming at-large, replacing Penn State

  • Peach becomes Georgia-tOSU, Fiesta becomes tTUN-USC
  • 2 current and 1 future B1G teams in CFP, south threatens SECession.
  • Penn State receives conference tie-in to Rose Bowl.
  • TCU replaces Penn State in Cotton.
  • Bonus if PAC other than USC and UCLA, and B12, and ACC, get wiped in the bowls, ahead of the new bowl tie-in negotiations.

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