HOW THEY’LL FINISH: 2022-23 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Record Projections

A day late, but thank goodness no major upsets on Day 1 to really throw the validity of these rankings into disrepute.

Here, assembled before you, are the FULL predictions, projections, and previews for every Big Ten basketball team in 2022-23. Who makes the NCAA Tournament? Who wins the conference? Will the same four teams be playing on Wednesday of the Big Ten Tournament?

Check out our full Team-by-Team Previews and then read the predictions below!

Team Predictions

1. Illinois Fighting Illini 21-10 (14-6 B1G)

• High: 25-6 (16-4) — noted Bruce Pearl fan Stewmonkey13
• Low: 20-11 (12-8) — MaximumSam
• Standard Dev: 1.7 wins (1.2 B1G)

He was a high school QB: I think Illinois will start slowly as the retooled lineup takes shape, but I think they will be a load by sometime in January, especially in a middling B1G. If they can find enough three point shooting, they’ll even be elite nationally.

2. Indiana Hoosiers — 22-9 (13-7 B1G)

• High: 24-7 (15-5) — misdreavus79
• Low: 20-11 (11-9) — Kind of..., RU in VA
• Standard Dev: 1.6 wins (both)

BuffKomodo: Indiana basketball looks to contend for a conference title for the first time since the last year of the Crean era. The guards and shooting looked much improved in the exhibition games. The offense flowed much nicer from what I was able to watch. Will it carry over?

We shall see, sports fans. We shall see.

3. Michigan State Spartans — 20-11 (13-7 B1G)

• High: 22-9 (15-5) — misdreavus79
• Low: 18-13 (12-8) — RU in VA, BoilerUp89
• Standard Dev: 1.6 wins (1.1 B1G)

Green Akers: Confidence seems to be building in the MSU fandom and media about this team’s potential, but I suspect that is bleed over from a surprisingly excellent recruiting off-season. I still expect this to be something like a 5th place conference finish season, which is ok with me as long as the main pieces with more than a year left like AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins develop into a core that can contend for everything in ‘23 with an injection of fantastic incoming talent.

They’ll be at least very good and potentially great at the guard spots, and for all I’ve ragged on him in the past, Joey Hauser’s redemption arc sounds like it’s on track. Center is going to be an adventure though, even if the league isn’t as prolific there as it usually is. MSU needs a quantum leap from Mady Sissoko if they want to contain guys like Edey, Jackson-Davis, and Dickinson. Plenty of team sources are bullish on freshman big Jaxon Kohler, so we’ll see if he’s able to give MSU a functional tandem down low.

4. Purdue Boilermakers — 21-10 (13-7 B1G)

• High: 26-5 (5-5) — Stewmonkey13
• Low: 18-13 (10-10) — RU in VA
• Standard Dev: 2.4 wins (1.6 B1G)

BoilerUp89: The name of the game for Purdue basketball this year is consistency. Will the guards be able to limit turnovers consistently? Or the team shoot 3 points at a respectable clip night in and night out? Or make the right decisions on defense time and time again?

I like the individual pieces and talent assembled but I don’t think it comes together this season on a consistent basis. There will be flashes of brilliance surrounded by some disappointed play. Fortunately for Boiler fans, unlike the last season when they were inconsistent (2019-2020), the B1G is not good this season. So, a NCAA tourney bid is still within their grasp while a team with only one senior (grad transfer David Jenkins) builds towards next season.

5. Iowa Hawkeyes — 22-9 (12-8 B1G)

I realize what happened with the rounding. It’s my blog. Deal.

• High: 25-6 (15-5) — MaximumSam
• Low: 19-12 (10-10) — MNWildcat
• Standard Dev: 2.0 wins (1.9 B1G)

Stewmonkey13: Iowa’s going to have a good offense, that seems like a given under Fran. Granted it’ll probably take a step back from the last couple of years, but still wouldn’t be surprised that they’re one of the best in the conference. The defense isn’t going to be great, but I do think it can be a little bit better.

Losing 28th year senior Jordan Bohannon is probably the main culprit on both of those fronts. He was an incredible 3 point shooter but mostly a liability on defense. I think Kris Murray can replace about 90% of what his brother did. Look for Payton Sandfort to make a pretty big step forward in contributions. And word is that Tony Perkins has been thriving in his role.

Overall I think this Iowa team is still pretty good and doesn’t take h off a step back. I think they compete for a double bye in the conference, but without really ever contending for the title.

6. Michigan Wolverines — 21-10 (12-8 B1G)

• High: 25-6 (15-5) — Stewmonkey13
• Low: 20-11 (10-10) — RU in VA
• Standard Dev: 1.9 wins (1.6 B1G)

From the OTE Preview (MaximumSam): Man, I dunno. Dickinson is great, so this team isn’t going to be bad. If Bufkin emerges, Lewellyn can play, they find a small forward, and Williams makes a jump, then this team can be pretty good. All those things could happen.

At the very least, surrounding Dickinson with guys who do nothing but shoot threes should carry them. I’m skeptical that they will contend for the B1G, but given I’m skeptical of most teams this year, they have a puncher’s chance.

7. Ohio State Buckeyes — 20-11 (12-8 B1G)

• High: 24-7 (15-5) — misdreavus79
• Low: 20-11 (11-9) — Kind of..., RU in VA
• Standard Dev: 1.6 wins (both)

MaximumSam: The Buckeyes won’t be super good, but they should be fairly fun to watch with a weird mix of transfer seniors and talented freshmen. They seem like a team that will have a Yahtzee like approach of random performances.

8. wisconsin badgers — 19-12 (10-10 B1G)

• High: 23-8 (13-7 B1G) — He was a high school QB
• Low: 15-16 (6-14 B1G) — Stewmonkey13
• Standard Dev: 2.4 wins (2.2 B1G)

Kind of...: Wisconsin probably won’t win a share of the B1G title this year, even though we all said the same thing last year, and three years ago.

If they stay relatively injury free, though, there’s enough talent to surprise. But they are pretty thin, so it could go really bad if Chucky Hepburn or Tyler Wahl misses time. And they’re not big, so might go three guards more than any time in recent memory. But they were #310 in 3 pt %, and #276 in effective FT% last year, both of which are almost certain to go up.

9. Rutgers Scarlet Knights — 18-13 (10-10 B1G)

• High: 27-4 (16-4) — RU in VA
• Low: 0-31 (0-20) — misdreavus79
• Actual Low: 13-18 (6-14) — Stewmonkey13
• Standard Dev: 4.1 wins (3.0 B1G)

RU in VA: Rutgers basketball should continue to see more success than pre-Pikiell (pretty easy to improve on 1-13 in conference). It all depends on three things:

• Can Big Cliff become what he should be able to be - an All-B1G first teamer?
• Will Caleb Mcconnell do his DPOY thing again? Can Mulcahy play PG (or point forward, whatever you call tall-ass dudes playing the 1)?
• Is Cam Spencer for real?

There are a lot of promising unproven players that can REALLY create some havoc transition basketball with speed and length. Give them 5 games to settle into the defensive rhythm, then watch out. 4 guys all 6’7” and above who can run are about to be coming straight at your team’s basket.

10. Maryland Terrapins — 17-14 (9-11 B1G)

• High: 18-13 (11-9) — MaximumSam
• Low: 15-16 (8-12) — He was a high school QB
• Standard Dev: 1.4 wins (1.1 B1G)

larry31: Maryland finishes 7th to 9th in the B1G. They will be skating on the bubble all year, but that’s not good enough to make the NCAA tourney this year, unless they pull off a non-con upset against the likes of #4 Tennessee or #11 UCLA.

Another difference between Willard and Turge, Willard actually schedules non-con games against ranked opponents.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions — 17-14 (8-12 B1G)

• High: 19-12 (10-10) — misdreavus79 and MaximumSam
• Low: 5-15 (14-17) — Stewmonkey13
• Standard Dev: 1.8 wins (both)

misdreavus79: Penn State has the opportunity to capitalize on a likely down Big Ten to find itself outside the bottom four. Whether that means 10th or 8th, we’ll find out soon enough. The combination of talent and experience should be good to improve on their 7-13 conference record from a year ago.

12. Minnesota Golden Gophers — 13-18 (5-15 B1G)

• High: 15-16 (7-13 B1G) — Kind of...
• Low: 11-20 (3-17 B1G) — He was a high school QB
• Standard Dev: 1.3 wins (1.5 B1G)

WhiteSpeedReceiver: I think the only thing we can hope for from Minnesota is improvement. Dawson Garcia and the freshmen are better athletes than what we had last year, but whether or not Ben Johnson & co. can turn them into a better basketball team is yet to be seen.

Pharrell Payne is probably the most important answer to a question (as in: “Who will get the Rebounds? Pharrell Payne, but will he be able to stay out of foul trouble in the B1G?”), but “Who’s going to play PG in key moments” seems to be up for debate. Not that it’s important...

13. Northwestern Wildcats — 12-19 (5-15 B1G)

• High: 14-17 (8-12 B1G) — misdreavus79
• Low: 11-20 (3-17 B1G) — Stewmonkey13
• Standard Dev: 1.7 wins (1.4 B1G)

MNWildcat: Can the Wildcats’ frontcourt take a step in 2022-23? Can Boo Buie or Chase Audige put their chucking ways behind them and become consistent, bona fide scorers?

Probably not, and this is probably Chris Collins’s last year in Evanston unless the ‘Cats go to the NIT or better. I’m personally excited to see the emergence of Ty Berry as a scorer and Matt Nicholson as a big stiff who can at least shore things up inside. Let’s just all get through it together.

Robbie Beran will also be there.

14. Nebraska Cornhuskers — 12-19 (5-15 B1G)

• High: 13-18 (Kind of...), 6-14 B1G (misdreavus)
• Low: 11-20 (Stew, BU89), 4-16 B1G (HWAHSQB)
• Standard Dev: .8 wins (.5 B1G)

Jesse Collins: SHIIIIIT. Um... Ok.

Nebraska basketball is basically Nebraska football only with no history and very little in the ways of expectations. Do I think they ‘should’ be better than last year? Probably. Last year was an abject disaster with a lot of standing around and watching Bryce McGowens do stuff.

That said, in theory I like the makeup of the team. There’s a little more height and if Walker isn’t hurt beyond repair, there’s some room for growth. I don’t know... I don’t expect much, but wouldn’t it be nice if they were just average instead of awful? Also I am excited for Wilhelm Breidenbach to get a second chance after injury last year. He could be a lot of fun.

Full Standings

Thanks to Stew for helping construct our full final order of finish in the Big Ten for 2022-23:

Writer-by-Writer Projections

Tell us how we did in the comments?