Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Maryland Terrapins vs. #23 NC State Wolfpack
11am CT | ESPN | NCSt -1 | O/U 45.5
Bank of America Field (Charlotte, NC)
Football outsiders DVOA+ ranks Maryland 37th on offense, 36th on defense and 28th overall whereas NC State is ranked a horrid 94th on offense, a very respectable 20th on defense, and 53rd overall. Sagarin is much more pessimistic about Maryland and more optimistic about NC State, ranking Maryland and NC State 40th and 46th, respectively.
Nevertheless, the money says it’s going to be a close game.
The initial betting line had Maryland favored by 1.5 points. The betting line has now swung to NC State being favored by 1 point. This is most likely due to the fact that Rakim Jarret, Dontay Demus, and Jacob Copeland have all opted out to pursue NFL careers (along with back up tight end, CJ Dippre-transfer to Alabama, ugh) whereas NC State has lost only one player, their original starting QB. who got injured and is transferring.
The loss of the aforementioned receivers does not cause me heartburn. Frankly, I feel the highly regarded trio of Jarret, Demus, and Copeland under-performed whereas the rushing attack exceed all expectations. Taulia Tagovailoa still has beast-mode tight end Corey Dyches and WRs Jeshaun Jones and Tai Felton to throw to. Also, there is very little tape on highly regard and talented freshmen WRs Octavian Smith and Shaleak Knotts. I feel like these recently promoted frosh WRs will show up and have nice games. Tagovailoa has plenty of talent.
Sound Smart for Your “Friends”: Most telling is that Maryland is 0-7 when rushing for less than 130 yards and 5-0 when rushing for over 130 yards.
All the RBs are on board, but NC State has a top-10 rushing defense. This does not bode well for Maryland. However, if the reasonable conclusion is that Taulia Tagovailoa will have to beat NC State through the air, this does not bother me too much. All signs point to this being a close, competetive game.
My Gut: Maryland will have more success running than expected. Maryland has more talent and should win. However, as always is the case with Maryland, Maryland’s success will be determined by how many stupid penalties they commit, especially with the human embodiment of an unsportsmanlike penalty, Jeshaun Jones, being the featured WR.
Self-inflicted wounds (penalties and turnovers) will be the factors deciding this game. IF Maryland plays reasonably disciplined football, they will win.
If not, I don’t know what I will do. My standby of doing yardwork in pleasantly balmy conditions is no longer an option. It’s cold as f**k, the ground is frozen, and everything that is not dead has gone dormant. Seems like a fine time to go to the gym.
Who you got?
This poll is closed