Last pick: Youngstown State vs Oakland, 2/9/22, Oakland -3: MISS. In my writeup, I said that the two recent losses aren’t an indication that Oakland just all of a sudden became bad last week. I was wrong; Oakland all of a sudden became bad last week. There was no injury news or COVID news, they just are bad now.
Hey look, I thought this series was a decent idea, but it appears to be cursing me and also nobody reads it. But it’s worth trying anything once.
Especially something with a 15/19 hit rate.
Record: 9-8-1 | Profit: -3.4U | ROI: -6.8% | Avg Odds: -106.5 (1.94) | Streak: 3L | Last 10: WLLLLWWLLL
Tail at your own risk, I’m hot garbage
Thumpasaurus Bet Of The Day
Today’s Event: Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs IUPUI Jaguars, 7:00PM EST
Today’s Bet: 5U on Under 121.5 (-110)
I lost fading IUPUI last week against a team that then turned around and led wire to wire against a former league title contender.
IUPUI, however, is worse than they were then (when they were still the worst team in division 1 basketball). Injuries have now reduced them to six available players, which has made it impossible to run full practices. Three days ago, they posted a since-deleted tweet that they were having open tryouts for the rest of the year. Their third-leading scorer, Azariah Seay, announced his intention to transfer shortly after the tweet was posted.
IPFW averages 72.8 points a game while IUPUI averages an incredible 51.7. This will be IUPUI’s first road game since January 18th.
IUPUI games have hit the under 15 out of 19 times this year and PFW games have hit the under 14 out of 21 times
Although PFW can put up some points, their offense rates 274th in KenPom and they’re 139th in tempo. That’s top 40 percentile, but not seven-seconds-or-less territory. IUPUI is 354th in tempo. They’ve played shorthanded a lot and are the worst offensive team in the nation. They use the entire shot clock every single time.
After that tweet, IUPUI’s struggles have gotten national attention. They’re basically going into tonight’s game with no bench. My concerns about PFW’s tempo are mitigated by what an absolute dick move (and a needless one at that) it would be to keep chucking shots early in the clock against exhausted players with a huge lead. I think PFW will take control of this one early and their bench will play a lot of minutes. There’s no need to pour it on here.
I’m parlaying this with PFW -19, but most is going on the under specifically because PFW might let off the gas for the whole second half so the game is like, 65-49.
Even when IUPUI nearly beat Youngstown State, the game still finished with a 117 total.
If this misses, well, boy this column will have been short lived.
Don’t let me down, Ooey Pooey.