I kept the streak alive yesterday as UConn, my moneyline pick, trailed or tied virtually wire to wire with Xavier, ultimately falling by 6 points on the road. It turns out they really needed to have Akok on hand for situations like this. The Huskies seem neutered without Akok.
Record: 1-5 | Profit: -14.1U | ROI: -70.7% | Avg Odds: -107.4 | Streak: 5L | Form: WLLLLL
Once again, I’m only back at it today to see how long I can keep this up, and just in case you think I’m secretly trying to lose...
Thumpasaurus College Hoops Bet Of The Day
Today’s Bet: 3U on Wisconsin -8 (-110)
Yes, IUPUI is playing again today, and their unders and covers hit at over 70%, but not for me they don’t. I’m instead going to something I’m intimately familiar with: Rutgers on the road (Roadgers) against a high level opponent.
Sagarin is very impressed with Rutgers’ recent form, but again, Roadgers is a totally different team. They nearly beat the Nerncats on the road and pulled one out against Nebraska. I can handwave these by citing Northwestern’s incredible ability to create losses out of thin air and Nebraska being very bad while also sharing that trait with Northwestern.
KenPom likes Wisconsin by 7.5 on a neutral court while Sagarin likes them by 5. The home court advantage is typically 2.5 to 3. You can double that, conservatively, when we’re talkin’ bout The ‘Gers.
I even have a bit of a hedge here where if I lose this bet, there’s a chance Wisconsin also loses straight-up, putting my team back alone in first.
If I lose fading IUPUI and Roadgers, you have to make sure every gambler in your life follows me.