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College Basketball Bet of the Day 2/13: Lord Have (Detroit) Mercy

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Is the O’Rena safe anymore?

Syndication: Indianapolis
“six straight?”
Matt Kryger/IndyStar

Well well well. It seems the Kohl Center is no match for my momentum.

Last Bet: Wisconsin vs Rutgers 2/12, Wisconsin -8: MISS

Not only did Wisconsin fail to cover, they failed to win. In fact, if the spread were reversed and it were Roadgers -8, it would have been a push!

(The next Blocking Chargecast is slated to be called “We Need To Talk About The ‘Gers”)

Wisconsin got pushed around at home by Rutgers, whose road form I very much believed in fading. As a result, here’s my updated stats:

Record: 1-6 | Profit: -17.1U | ROI: -74.5% | Avg Odds: -107.8 | Streak: 6L | Form: WLLLLLL

Now look, a man of lesser integrity might use this opportunity to make a bet like “fade Illinois” or “bet on Purdue” or “Iowa moneyline,” but I truly can’t justify any of that with the methodology I’ve been using and I am once again really trying to find me a winning bet. The meta bonus for Wisconsin losing was a complete aside; I didn’t need any Illini-related stakes to fade Rutgers at Wisconsin.

No, I can’t mess with the formula now. Hopefully you and all of your friends have been capitalizing; I will continue to do my best to stick with the plan.

Thumpasaurus College Hoops Bet Of The Day

Event: Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Detroit Mercy Titans, 1:00 PM EST

Today’s Bet: 3U on Detroit-Mercy +7.5 (-110)

Contrary to what I thought last week, Oakland did in fact see themselves sitting at 9-2 in first place in the Horizon League and 16-4 overall, assess their season goals, and resolve to suck going forward. They were held to 64 by Wright State, lost in OT to Northern Kentucky and then took a hideous loss at Youngstown State before nearly blowing a road game to a woeful Robert Morris squad. They pulled that one out by 3 to stop the losing skid.

Detroit Mercy started off the year with an awful losing skid, but have since stabilized into a middling Horizon League team. They’ve only played 12 conference games, having suffered the most cancellations of anyone in the HL, so they’ve had a weird campaign. Their most recent four games have seen them go 2-2 against a slate of teams that Oakland also just played. OU went 1-3 in those games. Detroit’s losses were worse, yes, but their wins were substantially better.

KenPom likes Oakland by 6.5 or so, while Sagarin likes them by 4. These are neutral court numbers. Where Sagarin validates my momentum hunch is in Recent Form, where the two are separated by only 0.6. Oakland has been playing their way out of a conference title with no injuries to speak of. Jamal Cain is a consistent scorer, but Oakland’s slide has been a function of star guard Jalen Moore becoming an absolute black hole on offense. In the loss to Youngstown State he played 39 minutes and went 5 for 18. He still put up 19 points because he got to the line 11 times, but he’s a very high usage player going through a major slump.

Yes, I do spend a lot of time on the Horizon League. Do you not?