So over on reddit’s r/sportsbook, I’ve been posting in the Pick Of The Day threads with varying degrees of success. However, my college basketball picks are 8-5-1 despite a recent 4-bet losing streak that culminated with losing a very confident pick. I’m already writing these things up. Maybe you’d like to peruse my writeups? Perhaps you’d like to throw some pocket change at my picks. Perhaps you’d like to fade me. Perhaps you’d like to laugh at me when I’m hilariously wrong. I did, after all, suffer a push when Brad Davison missed two free throws against Maryland with virtually no time left.
In any case, here’s today’s!
College Hoops Bet of the Day 2/6/22
Record: 8-5-1 | Profit: +2.8U | ROI: 7.5% | Avg Odds: -110.2 | Streak: 1W | Last 10: LWWWWLLLLW
Last pick: Akron vs. Miami Ohio, 2/4/22: Akron -7: Hit. It was a tight one in the first half but the Zips took control down the stretch. Those two teams play again today, and while Akron as a 3.5 point road dog is tempting...
Today’s Event: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers, 4:30PM EST (2.5 hours from now)
Today’s Bet: 3U on Minnesota +13.0 (-105)
So here we have a battle between one team that’s 2-8 in the conference and another that’s 4-6. You wouldn’t know that little separated them looking at the line though. Sagarin and KenPom still really like Iowa, giving them a 7-point and 10.5-point edge respectively on a neutral court. Sagarin is in my opinion the superior predictor, and even adding the 2.7 point home court advantage only produces a 9.7-point Iowa margin.
Iowa’s 10-point win at Minnesota was a 6-point margin before the Gophers started fouling. Minnesota has since beaten Rutgers without access to their three best players, then taken three losses to ranked teams including a pretty close one at Wisconsin. Minnesota will be at full strength for this game and between Jamison Battle and E.J. Stephens they have the firepower to keep pace with Iowa’s offense.
Iowa will be without head coach Fran McCaffrey due to COVID. I’ve already made some money this season fading Iowa because I continue to think their all-offense-no-defense style makes people and models overrate them. Minnesota certainly has a ceiling that enables them to play with Iowa.
Here’s another fun fact: Minnesota has been 12+ point underdogs twice this season, both in road games at Mississippi State and Michigan. They won both games.
Bottom line: Iowa is likely to win, but they’re not as good as the teams that have been hammering Minnesota by 13 or more and Minnesota has been feisty on the road at full strength.
Bear in mind, when I write these up for Reddit, I’m writing for people that may want to blindly tail me without having any idea what Big Ten basketball even is.
This is a quick turnaround so let’s see if I can start OTE-posting with any success!
Here’s a complete accounting