Feel free to skip to the bottom of each section if you just want to know who your Big Ten rooting interests are.

Missouri Valley Conference tournament preview

Full disclosure, Arch Madness is my favorite conference tournament every year. When I discuss other conference tournaments, the MVC is the measuring stick. Four days of high quality mid-major basketball, this tournament features teams that usually have to win the tournament to advance. Whomever comes out of St. Louis has potential to do some serious damage in the NCAA field.

This year the tournament will feature 12 teams for the first time, as following Loyola Chicago’s exit the MVC expanded by adding Belmont, Murray State, and UIC. The top four seeds receive a bye and in case the tournament’s nickname didn’t give it away, all games are played in St. Louis, Missouri.

In the past five tournaments the MVC auto bid has received a 10, 8, 15, 11, and 10. In the year that Loyola Chicago received an 8 seed, Drake also got in as an at-large 11. The two bid MVC unfortunately looks unlikely this year, but isn’t impossible if all the bubble teams lose this weekend and early in their conference tournaments. Otherwise the auto bid winner is probably looking at a 12 or 13 seed.

The favorites

Bradley Braves (22-8, 16-4) - Bradley won the Missouri Valley regular season for the first time in 1996. In the 1950s, the Braves made the national championship game twice. The current team plays really good defense and shoots the ball well but turn it over more than is advisable and struggle getting to the free throw line. The Braves have a little of an international flavor as they have four international players in the rotation. Bradley last made the made the tournament in 2019. Unfortunately they were under seeded and lost a heartbreaker to Michigan State causing my Sweet 16 picks to only be 15/16 that year.

Drake Bulldogs (23-7, 15-5) - Drake had won ten straight heading into the regular season finale at Bradley for the MVC crown. Although they lost that by 12, the Bulldogs remain fully capable of winning this tournament. Sophomore star Tucker DeVries is the coach’s son continuing a trend of high profile father-son duos in MVC history. Drake last made the tournament in 2021 but have lost in the MVC tournament to the eventual champion the past three years.

Other contenders

Belmont Bruins (20-10, 14-6) - Longtime OVC frontrunner Belmont has transitioned well into the MVC finishing third in their inaugural season. Although Belmont was swept by Drake, they swept Bradley in turn and their three point shooting (38.7%) make them dangerous. Four players shot over 40% from three on the season. Head coach Casey Alexander is my favorite for the Vanderbilt job when it next comes open (honestly I just want to see him coach all the Nashville jobs). Belmont last made the tournament in 2019 when they advanced to the 2nd round before losing to Maryland.

Southern Illinois Salukis (21-9, 14-6) - Southern Illinois is having their best season in awhile. They are a painfully slow team that relies on defense and good ball movement to create open shots. Poor shooting puts a hard limit on their ceiling. The Salukis last made the tournament in 2007 when they received a four seed and made the Sweet 16 under Matt Painter’s replacement Chris Lowery.

Chaos option

Evansville Purple Aces (5-26, 1-19) - Remember when Evansville beat Kentucky and then proceeded to go 0-18 in MVC play? That was only 3 years ago. Two head coaches later, first year head coach David Ragland has a massive rebuild in front of him. Year 1 didn’t go his way, but you aren’t eliminated until you are eliminated. Evansville has not made the Division 1 tournament since 1999. They were a mainstay at the top of D2 in the late 50s and 60s.

Last year’s NCAA dancer

Loyola Chicago received a 10 seed and lost to Ohio State. They’ve since moved onto the Atlantic 10 where they have discovered that there is a major gap between the top mid major conference and the bottom of the high-major conferences as they sit at 3-13 in A10 play.

Never made the tournament club

None

B1G connections and other fun conference stats

• If Nebraska or Minnesota were in the market for a head coach this offseason (and the consensus thinking is that they aren’t), Bradley’s and Drake’s head coaches would be top candidates.
• Northwestern beat Illinois Chicago 92-54
• If you want to know why I would rather see a second Valley team in the field than a B1G team having a mediocre season, the fact that the entire B1G was too chickenshit to schedule any MVC teams other than bottom barrel UIC probably has something to do with it.
• The conference last made the Sweet 16 in 2021 when Loyola Chicago defeated Georgia Tech and Illinois. 2006 MVC received four bids - two of which made the Sweet 16.

Too Long, Didn’t Read B1G Rooting Interests

Bubble teams: It won’t matter if you win a game or two between now and Selection Sunday, but if you don’t and need to back into a tournament bid you won’t want to see a Bradley-Drake final.

Potential NIT teams: Root for Bradley

Potential 4 and 5 seeds: Root for anyone other than Bradley, Drake, or Belmont if you want an easier matchup.

Picks

BoilerUp89: Bradley is my MVC team and I always pick them when they have a realistic opportunity. There are plenty of great coaches in this conference at the moment highlighted by Brian Wardle, Casey Alexander, and Darian DeVries. I expect one of those three to win Arch Madness, but any of the top 8 seeds wouldn’t surprise me.

MNW: Drake is my MVC team, and I hope Bradley gets crabs.

That last part isn’t true, but I am all in on my Bulldogs. BU89 is 100% right that this is really a golden time in the MVC, even after Loyola’s departure, and the parity atop the conference is pretty exciting.

Gimme the winner of Southern-Drake to do it. God, I hope it’s the Bullogs.

West Coast Conference tournament preview

In contrast to the MVC tournament, the West Coast Conference tournament is an abomination. A five round ladder style tournament with a break between the quarterfinals and semifinals, the tournament format gifts the #1 and #2 seeds a bye all the way to the semis. All ten teams make the field, but tiebreakers for seeding are determined by NET rankings, which led to St. Mary’s and Gonzaga attempting to run up the score against opponents late in the season when they realized their potential to tie.

In the past five tournaments the WCC auto-bid has received three 1 seeds, a 4 seed, and an 11 seed. Four of the past five NCAA tournaments have seen multiple WCC bids and last season saw three bids. Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are looking at 3-6 seeds. Any other winner is probably around a 14 seed.

The favorites

Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-5, 14-2) - Gonzaga isn’t headed to a fourth straight 1 seed in the Big Dance, but they remain a top 20 quality team. They are the top offense per KenPom, but their defense took a major step backwards this season.

St. Mary’s Gaels (24-6, 14-2) - The Gaels split the series with Gonzaga and all the advanced metrics love them this season for reasons I do not understand. Their NET ranking was 9th compared to Gonzaga’s 11, so they got the 1 seed when the two teams finished tied. Their Wisconsinite tempo is painful but effective and their defense is for real. St. Mary’s is in line for a second consecutive bid and are looking for their first Sweet 16 run since 2010.

Other contenders

Santa Clara Broncos (22-8, 11-5) - The Broncos kept their home games against the favorites close but were blown out on the road. They’ve won seven straight and are shooting 37.6% from three. Co-WCC player of the year Brandin Podziemski has the talent to take over a game and propel the Broncos to the WCC tournament crown. Santa Clara hasn’t made the tournament since 1996. They were a Final Four contestant back in 1952.

Loyola Marymount Lions (18-11, 9-7) - Loyola Marymount did beat both Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga this season, but the also finished 4th in the conference and were blown out by Gonzaga in their rematch. Luckily for them they avoid the Gonzaga side of the bracket. The Lions haven’t made the tournament since 1990 when they went all the way to the Elite 8.

Chaos options

Anyone other than Gonzaga or St. Mary’s

Last year’s NCAA dancer

Gonzaga received the auto bid, a 1 seed, and lost in the Sweet 16 to Arkansas.

St. Mary’s received an at-large bid, a 5 seed, and smacked around the Indiana Hoosiers.

San Francisco received an at-large bid, a 10 seed, and lost to Murray State in OT. Head coach Todd Golden then departed for Florida.

Never made the tournament club

None

B1G connections and other fun conference stats

• Neither the WCC or the Big Ten have won the national championship since 2000.
• Purdue Boilermakers beat Gonzaga 84-66.
• Gonzaga beat Michigan State Spartans 64-63 on an aircraft carrier.
• Portland beat Michigan State 78-77 in Portland.
• The WCC is one of the most lopsided conferences out there. Gonzaga is routinely competing nationally while one or two other teams are fighting for an at-large bid, and the bottom is typically pretty bad. Although the conference didn’t get past the Sweet 16 last year, Gonzaga made the national championship in 2021.

Too Long, Didn’t Read B1G Rooting Interests

Bubble teams: Root for Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. Anyone else is a bid thief.

Potential 3 to 6 seeds: Root against Gonzaga and St. Mary’s as you are competing against them for high seeds in the bracket.

Picks

BoilerUp89: Gonzaga. It’s one thing for them to drop a couple of road conference games and another to expect them to lose a conference tournament game. I don’t trust St. Mary’s metrics as I think they are getting propped up by blowing out bad teams.

MNW: I didn’t know the bit about NET rankings being used to see ties—that’s...uh...well, whatever. Mark Few and Randy Bennett both suck for their own individual reasons, and given that the only other option the last few years has been BYU, save a brief San Francisco renaissance, there won’t be much in the WCC conference tourney for me. Go Dons.