Iowa's Path to 25ppg - Week 3


Continuing this short series on tracking Iowa's famous 25 points per game contractual suggestion. As previously noted in the Week 1 Post, at the start of the season I calculated targets for each opponent based on 2022 points per game allowed and adjusted for home/away. Since we know some games will be harder than others, the goal was to put together a smarter budget of points needed each game to reach the 325 point goal.

  • I am aware that excuses will likely be made if the 25 ppg goal is not met. "The new clock rules unexpectedly took possessions away." "We made it to the conference championship game." "Kirk said we should keep him."
  • Since this is calculated from 2022 results, the targets are probably going to look a little off for Rutgers (too high) and Illinois (too low). I figure those errors cancel each other out and the big picture remains the same.
  • Also keep in mind that these targets are set to meet the 325 target. The targets will obviously need to be set to higher scores than what Iowa was scoring last year.

Against Western Michigan, Iowa did exactly what they needed to do to get back on track. They scored 41 points, which was 13 points more than I had budgeted for them, and they completely covered the hole they put themselves in after the Utah State game. They are now 3 points over their season-to-date budget. There was some talk after the game about the decision to go for it on 4th and goal with 30 seconds left in a 34-10 game.

First off - I don't wish unemployment on anyone*. So if they came out and said they did it to protect his employment status, that would be reason enough for me. But that's not even why they did it. This wasn't a Ryan Day situation where they had their starters in at the end of the game to pad stats. They had their back ups in and it was a walk-on RB that scored the TD. It's a really tired narrative that the kids who work their tails off in practice, but are buried on the depth chart, don't deserve an opportunity to make a lifelong memory when the opportunity presents itself in a decided game. It would be nice if people stopped making a big deal about backups scoring late.

* except people who selfishly schedule their weddings on a fall Saturday during football season.

This weekend, everyone should be well aware that Iowa travels to Happy Valley for the nighttime white out. Iowa will be looking for at least 13pts to stay on track, and 16 points to hit their weekly target. Against West Virginia and Illinois, PSU gave up 15 and 13 points respectively. As long as Iowa has the opportunity to play PSU's backups in the 4th quarter like the other two schools did, Iowa should be able to get to a similar final score. They unfortunately will be without their top two RBs and one of their starting TEs. I didn't watch the game last week, so I'm still awaiting word if Iowa fans boo'd TE Luke Lachey when he faked a season ending injury to slow down his own high-paced huddle offense.

Weather may also be a factor in this game. They are saying ~30% chance of rain, but the BSD weatherfolks HAVE confirmed there will be a monsoon during the entirety of the game. This actually could bode well for Iowa if PSU hasn't learned ball security in rainy conditions since their five TO game against Northwestern last year.



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